There's a lot of question in my mind as to the validity of the NFP numbers and i'm using the plural because the NFP is the current month's number, the household data and all the revisions.
Check all of the local papers around the country and i'm positive you will see stories relating to Bush giving a pre-election speech touting the low unemployment rate and wonderful job the republicans are doing etc...Well maybe they are and maybe they aren't.
I'm not a conspiracy theorist. I don't don't believe in UFO's, that the CIA killed Kennedy or that the Gov't flew the planes into the WTC. I don't believe the gov't purposely manipulated the NFP numbers, even though Bush has been able to use them as campaign talking points because any politician would do the same thing. But here's what I do believe:
The job of counting the employment numbers is too big of a job to do on a monthly basis. There's just too much info to tabulate in the 20-22 working days that the BLS has to put it all together. On a month to month basis, there's just too much room for error and I think what we are seeing is the market accepting this, because the movement in the markets is occuring from the revised numbers and not the monthly number. Remember that famous quote from a BLS official last month that they have "lost the keys" to correctly tablulating the data?
Let's look at some numbers and see what they tell us and we'll assume the revised numbers and the GDP are real.
Unemployment is at a 5 year low and the GDP is at a 1.6% growth rate. What this means is that more workers then ever are producing less and less goods and services. It's like the equivilent of driving by street constrction where you see one guy digging the ditch while 6 guys are just standing around watching him do the work. Or you working at your desk while 7 of your co-workers are in the emplyee's lounge BS'ing about last nights football game. Is that what's happening? If it is, no employer is going to keep hiring and creating new jobs. Something is bound to give somewhere. I don't know about you, but I can hardly wait for next months numbers.
Your opinion?
Check all of the local papers around the country and i'm positive you will see stories relating to Bush giving a pre-election speech touting the low unemployment rate and wonderful job the republicans are doing etc...Well maybe they are and maybe they aren't.
I'm not a conspiracy theorist. I don't don't believe in UFO's, that the CIA killed Kennedy or that the Gov't flew the planes into the WTC. I don't believe the gov't purposely manipulated the NFP numbers, even though Bush has been able to use them as campaign talking points because any politician would do the same thing. But here's what I do believe:
The job of counting the employment numbers is too big of a job to do on a monthly basis. There's just too much info to tabulate in the 20-22 working days that the BLS has to put it all together. On a month to month basis, there's just too much room for error and I think what we are seeing is the market accepting this, because the movement in the markets is occuring from the revised numbers and not the monthly number. Remember that famous quote from a BLS official last month that they have "lost the keys" to correctly tablulating the data?
Let's look at some numbers and see what they tell us and we'll assume the revised numbers and the GDP are real.
Unemployment is at a 5 year low and the GDP is at a 1.6% growth rate. What this means is that more workers then ever are producing less and less goods and services. It's like the equivilent of driving by street constrction where you see one guy digging the ditch while 6 guys are just standing around watching him do the work. Or you working at your desk while 7 of your co-workers are in the emplyee's lounge BS'ing about last nights football game. Is that what's happening? If it is, no employer is going to keep hiring and creating new jobs. Something is bound to give somewhere. I don't know about you, but I can hardly wait for next months numbers.
Your opinion?
