PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis)

GBPCAD Short Trade

This trade is based on the H1 chart. About mid-way between LO and NYO the MMs had pushed price back up above a half level, with trends still stacked bearish and with slight down angle in spite of the pump. PVSRA shows the market loved the previous pump to the whole level above (bears distributing). This push back up was a FR 61.8% retrace of the dive from that whole level and most likely a stop hunt move up for more distributing....

EURCAD Short Trade in Progress.....

Trade is based on both M15 and H4. M15 shows valid setup: trends all with down angle and stacked bearish and PA moving up/down thru Dragon. H4 shows all the same except PA well below Dragon. This "says" the MMs could run a stop hunt on shorts all the way up to RDH and we would still have a valid short setup on H4, which means we can track the trade on M15 and not get too concerned if PA gets spiked today in the direction of RDH so long as we are trading light relative to account size. If we are trading light, and if such spike happens (MMs taking advantage of the market), we can even add to the trade taking advantage of the MM's manipulation. There is no telling how the MMs will move price today, so with PA above a whole level early in the day and with the possibility MMs could start to drive price lower even before London session, the short trade is started here......

[quote=traderathome;13246310] EURCAD Curto Comércio em Progresso..... O comércio é baseado tanto no M15 quanto no H4. M15 mostra configuração válida: tendências todas com ângulo para baixo e baixa empilhada e PA movendo-se para cima/para baixo através do Dragão. H4 mostra tudo o mesmo, exceto PA bem abaixo de Dragon. Este "diz" que os MMs poderiam executar uma caça da parada em shorts todo o caminho até RDH e ainda teríamos uma configuração curta válida em H4, o que significa que podemos rastrear o comércio em M15 e não ficar muito preocupado se pa é picoado hoje na direção de RDH, desde que estamos negociando luz em relação ao tamanho da conta. Se estamos negociando luz, e se tal pico acontecer (MMs aproveitando o mercado), podemos até adicionar ao comércio aproveitando a manipulação do MM. Não há como dizer como os MMs vão mover o preço hoje, então com a PA acima de um nível inteiro no início do dia e com a possibilidade de os MMs começarem a baixar o preço mesmo antes da sessão de Londres, o comércio curto é iniciado aqui...... {imagem} {imagem} [/citação]

Dear TAH,

Your EURCAD analysis is perfect, congratulations ... I am analyzing GBPUSD and it seems to me that there is a large concentration of selling volume above Half Level, today the daily candle has formed a high selling volume, but soon we will have two '' Red News' 'where there will be ample hunting, what drew attention was the price increase on the 3rd and on the 4th there were sales above RWH up to the support point where it is at the moment. Another observation of mine is the GBPNZD which, unlike GBPCAD, is on the rise, but with the absence of a notable sales volume in larger time frames but the formation of the daily candle opens up space for a long rally.

Regarding GU, early yesterday the MMs rather quickly whacked it 200+ pips! Got price back below the 1.30000 whole level and on the trip down the lower it got, the higher the market activity became. So, if I speak out of turn I apologize, but this could be very bullish following a huge stop hunt on longs and what you see as selling volume above the half level could be buying volume deep beneath that whole level. There are 5 high impact releases coming in several hours, not just two. M30 shows trends to be rather flat, but they retain their recent bullish stacking in spite of the whack job. We cannot know how the MMs will move price next. Having 5 high impact releases soon to come doesn't help. This one might be one to wait first for the MMs to make their play, then jump onto their coattails......a figure of speech, but we recommend not to be in a trade during high impact releases, nor soon afterwards. We look for "Best" setups. This is our method. Anything else, everything else, is a distraction.

Tah

AUDUSD Long Trade:
Again did not go exactly per plan since I didn't get the retrace down at LO. Could have been a really nice trade if I would get the entry closer to the broken falling TL where I placed my pending order. I plan to re-enter this trade if retrace down does happen before FOMC. Not likely, but we can never know....

Long Trade XAU/USD

GBPUSD Long Trade:
There was some high activity at the lows after the stop hunt so I went for it. Far away from H1 broken TL so I used 15min chart and smaller SL. Upper half level acted as ressistance so I closed before original TP.

EURUSD Long Trade:
Very bad first entry from M30 chart . Yeah the initial RR was 2:1 but ranging all day it was not very likely to reach RDH. Tried averaging down- only once - while at the same time moving SL higher. Of course it was hit so I went down to M5 and drew one more TL. My SL was hit exactly where I should have entered. So re-enetered M5 long which was excellent entry but because of previous mistake I just wanted to close all when 2:1 of a good trade was hit and forget about trading until tomorrow.

H4 chart shows MMs did pump price back up to our template 200 ema Bias Trend line, all the while there remaining a valid short setup in progress since all trends remained angled and stacked bearish. I added to this trade at various highs during the pump. This 3 day trade is over now, but all this pumping and loading makes me wonder if henceforth the MMs will drive price lower....

Short Trade GBP/CAD

Long Trade GBP/CAD Long Trade GBP/CHF
Long Trade GBP/AUD

EURAUD Short Trade

This trade involves both M15 and H4 charts. The H4 chart is used to qualify PA as an established HTF "Best" setup, where all trends have good angle and proper stacking. Then M15 can be used with less restriction as to placement of EPs, i.e., if trading light relative to account size then EPs can be placed during retraces/stop hunts with less anxiety and more assurance that due to good angles and stacking on the HTF H4 chart there is not only DIRECTION MOMENTUM, but also there is a higher degree of DIRECTION PERSISTENCY.

GBPCAD Long Trade:
Nothing special, good trade but got out where I needed to . I anticipated the break of upper TL and it happened later. The reason why I did not re-eneter is because I re-enetered GJ Long and couldn't be overexposed for one day (capital preservation).

GBPJPY Short and Long Trade:
At the moment I entered it was a valid short trade but PVSRA signaled long (higher activity at the lows).So the plan was to reverse at the break of falling TL which I did. I should have closed at 2.6:1 RR reached but was busy trading elsewhere so I treated this trade lazy which was my mistake. For that reason I will wait for H1 setups for the next few trades once again just to keep things simple and not too much time consuming.

GBPJPY Trade with Dynamic Trade Management:
This is how my previously posted GJ trade should have been treated. Exactly the same trade traded actively and using Dynamic Trade Management.


For those not familiar with PVSRA Pro Trade levels- the label below shows account status.

Congrats to Tah for achieving the best tool ever with wonderful PVSRA Template!!!!!!!

GBPJPY Example: Setup Hunting With H4 and M15

At the time of this posting H4 shows the validating requirements: all trends with good angle (in this case up) and trends properly stacked (in this case bullish). Next, looking at M15 we see the same requirements are fulfilled. However, M15 also suggests PA is currently being retraced (down) and that this could continue, possibly taking PA down as low as RWH. So, it is sensible to see this as a bullish situation, but we might want to wait into the NYS before opening a long trade. If trading light then EPs could be sparingly placed during such a retrace since all EPs will still be within the validating H4 setup (i.e., above the up angled H4 Dragon). And, by trading light relative to account equity, should the PA retrace (down) continue below RWH, this puts the PA still above the up angled H4 Dragon. So, in the event of even a SHAKEOUT OF LONGS by the MMs, we can survive and even profit OR close with a loss that is not disastrous to the account.......but ONLY by having a validating H4 chart to start with and TRADING VERY LIGHT RELATIVE TO ACCOUNT EQUITY.

GBPJPY Example Update

Not much spread action for day bar today, but what action there is continues to have bullish notion. On the other hand, the longer the MMs range price the more likely they will follow with a move lower (stop hunt/HTF trend retrace) of some significance. Of course, so long as H4 holds validity, we will be able to handle this, perhaps even profit from it.....

EURUSD Short Trade:
Excellent trade, just that I was active this time and closed at weekly pivot (but definitly more then 1:1 RR which is very important to stick to!) on the M5 activity rising expecting at least retrace up and also more or less ranging day because of both EU and USD bank holidays..boy I was wrong, sneaky MMs moved EU to RDL on a holiday...

Long Trade EUR/CAD

GBPJPY Short Trade:
Good RR trade so I took it. Did not reach my TP so moved SL closer. The plan was to reverse this one after LO.