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Price reaction to major S/R /TLs and entering on LTFs

  • #181
  • Nov 2, 2020 7:47pm Nov 2, 2020 7:47pm
AUDJPY,

I have a pending order to short in M30 Timeframe.

In the Daily time frame I have a bullish divergence against the trade.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYDaily.png Size: 51 KB



Howver in H4, price is reacting to a resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYH4.png Size: 69 KB


So why not going to a lower the time frame and find a setup?. I found M30 timeframe showing a broadening formation at the resistance level offering a very good R:R. The stop loss is above this formation and the target could be anywhere as long as the bearishness resumes.

I place the order slightly below the anticipated breakout.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYM30.png Size: 26 KB
  • #182
  • Nov 2, 2020 8:14pm Nov 2, 2020 8:14pm
AUDUSD

No Bias yet..

The pair is bouncing from daily support.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 57 KB


In H4, price is far from the support. Not only a good breakout is required but also a good price formation should happen under the breakout level to safely place the stop loss. I will not place the stop loss below the daily support as it is a bit far.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #183
  • Nov 2, 2020 8:15pm Nov 2, 2020 8:15pm
Quoting mtharwat
I place the order slightly below the anticipated breakout. {image}
a bit wary due to the triple bottom h4 candle wicks.
i guess the determining factors are the previous day high and today open.
whether price is above or below the 2 levels. now stuck in between.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #184
  • Nov 2, 2020 8:21pm Nov 2, 2020 8:21pm
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} a bit wary due to the triple bottom h4 candle wicks. i guess the determining factors are the previous day high and today open. whether price is above or below the 2 levels. now stuck in between.

Yeah.. The H4 candles you mentioned are bullish.
If price drops, I will deal with it as an H4 Range targetting half the range distance (a bit higher than my current target)
Attached Image
  • #185
  • Nov 2, 2020 8:27pm Nov 2, 2020 8:27pm
Quoting mtharwat
{quote} Yeah.. The H4 candles you mentioned are bullish. If price drops, I will deal with it as an H4 Range targetting half the range distance (a bit higher than my current target) {image}
oh aud news today. market expecting rate decrease? i guess already priced in.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/r...vember-2020-11
Attached Image
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #186
  • Nov 2, 2020 8:46pm Nov 2, 2020 8:46pm
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} oh aud news today. market expecting rate decrease? i guess already priced in. https://www.businessinsider.com.au/r...vember-2020-11 {image}

Thanks for the link...
The trade can go in my favour then and maybe beyond my target but the risk is in the volatility and news spikes!
  • #187
  • Nov 2, 2020 9:01pm Nov 2, 2020 9:01pm
A setup analysis showing how important choosing the level of stop-loss is:

Yesterday I was checking for something to trade intraday. I spotted EURUSD in the H1 time frame with bullish divergence... Although I have not traded this pair but wanted to show what my head was thinking of.

In Daily, the price was approaching a support level.
However, there is a couple of observations. 1-We had a strong bearish momentum in Daily represented in the bearish candles. 2-the support zone is not really a strong one considering that it has only been touched once. 3- No enough candles in Daily or H4 yet to show us that price will take its breath and strat attracting bullish buyers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 55 KB


In H1/M30 chart I saw a channel breakout with divergence at the vertical line. The reason behind this post is to demonstrate how the choice of your stop loss level would have helped anyone from losing his/her money in a 'weak' setup.
A stop-loss inside the channel below the breakout (A) would have been triggered,
A stop loss below the low of the channel (B) would have given the trader the opportunity to rethink of exiting or staying in the trade.

Attached M30
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30.png Size: 62 KB
  • #188
  • Nov 2, 2020 9:22pm Nov 2, 2020 9:22pm
I created something in Excel to show me the overall market trend by combining pairs for each currency. It is just a way to give me a heads up and not necessarily a means to trade based on.

Yesterday, all currencies were trending up quite high except for the JPY. So JPY was down and all other pairs including AUD and Cad were very bullish.

In other words, any pair being traded (that does not have jpy) was simply trading the same bullishness but with different rates of momentum. No wonder why it was very tricky to trade intraday setups.

Photo attached was captured now not yesterday when all currencies were quite up except for JPY was quite bearish.

Let's see if we witness a change in momentum this week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #189
  • Nov 2, 2020 9:44pm Nov 2, 2020 9:44pm
just sharing.
for supply demand traders, fresh supply or demand is the place where they place their trade.
when trading intraday, for me the levels to look out for are:
1. previous day high low
2. day open
3. asia high low
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD,M15.png Size: 37 KB
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #190
  • Nov 2, 2020 11:43pm Nov 2, 2020 11:43pm
Quoting mtharwat
A setup analysis showing how important choosing the level of stop-loss is: Yesterday I was checking for something to trade intraday. I spotted EURUSD in the H1 time frame with bullish divergence... Although I have not traded this pair but wanted to show what my head was thinking of. In Daily, the price was approaching a support level. However, there is a couple of observations. 1-We had a strong bearish momentum in Daily represented in the bearish candles. 2-the support zone is not really a strong one considering that it has only been touched once....


Ok

Now we have a couple more H4 candles printed and a better-looking H1 breakout.
Went long. I like the stoploss level.

H1 Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 28 KB
  • #191
  • Nov 3, 2020 2:59am Nov 3, 2020 2:59am
I just bought EURJPY

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYDaily.png Size: 27 KB

H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYH4.png Size: 29 KB

H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYH1.png Size: 16 KB
  • #192
  • Nov 3, 2020 3:55am Nov 3, 2020 3:55am
A recap for my (Closed) losers and winners

Loosers:

AUDJPY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYH1.png Size: 57 KB

EURAUD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDH4.png Size: 71 KB


EURMXN
Many times, I told myself to trade within the H4 range and add more to my position to cut down trade cost and then exit but I didn't!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURMXNH4.png Size: 69 KB

Winners
EURUSD

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM15.png Size: 29 KB

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  • #193
  • Edited 5:50am Nov 3, 2020 4:00am | Edited 5:50am
Current Open Trades

EURJPY (Long Position) Winning
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYH1.png Size: 26 KB


GBPAUD (Long Position) loosing
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDH4.png Size: 28 KB



--------------------------
Edit:

EURJPY
Closed the long position. A winner
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYH11.png Size: 57 KB
  • #194
  • Edited 6:19am Nov 3, 2020 6:04am | Edited 6:19am
EURCAD

Still building up...Bias is Bullish after touching the lower boundary of a Daily channel. We need more H4 candles and a pattern formation at this level with a good breakout.

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCADDaily.png Size: 65 KB
  • #195
  • Nov 3, 2020 10:04pm Nov 3, 2020 10:04pm
EURJPY:

Just sharing what is in my head.. No bias is established yet.

In Daily:


I have drawn all possible Lower Boundaries for a falling wedge in addition to a recent Daily S/R zone. Price is hovering around 38.2 Fib. There is also a Bullish Divergence.
The pair can be viewed to be bullish based on the potential wedge or simply retesting the recent S/R level and will continue to be bearish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYDaily.png Size: 57 KB


In H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYH4.png Size: 69 KB


We see the price rejected the H4 falling trendline and the H4 S/R. There is also a bearish divergence.

Still have not established a bias. A bullish bias requires a clear breakout of the H4 S/R and the H4 TL as well.
  • #196
  • Nov 3, 2020 11:28pm Nov 3, 2020 11:28pm
Quoting mtharwat
EURJPY: Just sharing what is in my head.. No bias is established yet.
if price remains below red resistance line, my bias is down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-11-04_13-26-09.png Size: 31 KB
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #197
  • Nov 4, 2020 2:01am Nov 4, 2020 2:01am
Quoting mtharwat
EURCAD Still building up...Bias is Bullish after touching the lower boundary of a Daily channel. We need more H4 candles and a pattern formation at this level with a good breakout. Daily {image}

I thought to check on the price later on and I just found this breakout. I did not have a pending order as I wanted to check on PA first.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCADH1.png Size: 74 KB
  • #198
  • Nov 6, 2020 8:25pm Nov 6, 2020 8:25pm
USDCAD

Daily:
Price is bouncing at support.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily.png Size: 57 KB


H1:
Waiting for a breakout in H1 TF.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH1.png Size: 56 KB
  • #199
  • Nov 6, 2020 8:30pm Nov 6, 2020 8:30pm
GBPUSD

In the Daily chart, I will see how price reacts to this resistance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily.png Size: 54 KB



In H1/H4, a breakout would indicate some bearish momentum to be shorted.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 68 KB
  • #200
  • Nov 6, 2020 8:57pm Nov 6, 2020 8:57pm
EURNZD

Weekly
Price touched a rising trend line
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZDWeekly.png Size: 53 KB

Daily:
Price bouncing from a daily support
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZDDaily.png Size: 62 KB


H4:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZDH4.png Size: 47 KB

The chart is not neat but I believe a stop loss below the H4 last low (below the morning star triple candlestick pattern) would be a good level for the stop loss. A breakout in H4 with a full-bodied candle will give more confidence in the setup or even better a daily candle as long as it does not take us to a much higher level widening our stop loss more and losing the momentum of being closer to the Weekly Trend Line and the Daily Support.
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