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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #8,821
  • Edited 9:05am Nov 2, 2020 8:49am | Edited 9:05am
Quoting C-12
{quote} It's possible but I do see the W1/D1 charts have turned bull on DXY. I don't see any reason for a trend change here. Pullbacks yes. There is a D1 supply approaching on DXY but it's not a significant solid zone. PA can always change though and just my read on it Took a long USDCAD and a short on GBPUSD here. Gap close and 61.8 of last leg. {image}
just what i know , im learning with my sifu about market habbit it call manipulation, yhis manipulation always appears in so many time on every tf.. on D1 we can see how sell trap happen to confuse seller to sell at resistance, than price go up eat the seller SL.. i just aware my self, maybe this is quasimodo level / up and under pattern, why.. because i see a clue price making new low engulf the old HL, mark it as false break down.
other evidence, price making compression (no pullback or vertical climb), emtying demand so we must curious a big drop could be happen..

its jus assumption, what market show its the truth..
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  • #8,822
  • Nov 2, 2020 8:56am Nov 2, 2020 8:56am
Quoting meugampong
{quote} just what i know , im learning with my sifu about market habbit it call manipulation, yhis manipulation always appears in so many time on every tf.. on D1 we can see how sell trap happen to confuse seller to sell at resistance, than price go up eat the seller SL.. i just aware my self, maybe this is quasimodo level / up and under pattern, why.. because i see a clue price making new low engulf the old HL, mark it as false break down. other evidence, price making compression (no pullback or vertical climb), emtying demand so we must curious...
another example,
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  • #8,823
  • Nov 2, 2020 9:11am Nov 2, 2020 9:11am
NZDUSD, watching this TL, I think the TL will eventually break and NU will go to 0.65/0.64.
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  • #8,824
  • Nov 2, 2020 9:32am Nov 2, 2020 9:32am
Quoting meugampong
{quote} just what i know , im learning with my sifu about market habbit it call manipulation, yhis manipulation always appears in so many time on every tf.. on D1 we can see how sell trap happen to confuse seller to sell at resistance, than price go up eat the seller SL.. i just aware my self, maybe this is quasimodo level / up and under pattern, why.. because i see a clue price making new low engulf the old HL, mark it as false break down. other evidence, price making compression (no pullback or vertical climb), emtying demand so we must curious...
You're looking at the right things in the right places, but we also have to focus on what current chart and PA is presenting in this moment.

On DXY we see the initial breakout, retest of demand and last week's rejection on strength. This suggests (at least to my eyes) should be going higher but may need a pullback before moving onwards.

However, it may not be ready to retrace here.
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  • #8,825
  • Nov 2, 2020 9:34am Nov 2, 2020 9:34am
SPX, got S where it supposed to be the double top neckline. I'll be watching that box for a possible short setup.
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  • #8,826
  • Edited 9:50am Nov 2, 2020 9:39am | Edited 9:50am
Quoting shahab8b
NZDUSD, watching this TL, I think the TL will eventually break and NU will go to 0.65/0.64. {image}
I have took a position short. Would have like to sell it higher (upper zone) but this 50% might be the end point.

Will reload above if it gets there. Highly likely we will see a more meaningful retrace to get in. This looks like a none event Monday.
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  • #8,827
  • Nov 2, 2020 10:12am Nov 2, 2020 10:12am
Quoting shahab8b
AUDUSD, rejection @ 0.70 provided good a good scalp/intraday long trade. C-12 had posted the setup before. Possible short setup @ 0.71. I am expecting this triangle to break to the downside eventually. {image}
The RBA is going to cut the interest rates tonight. I am expecting some volatility. Looking at these levels for short setups. The immediate reaction to the rate cut can be unpredictable so be careful. Also, there is always a chance that they surprise the market and don't cut the interest rates.
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  • #8,828
  • Nov 2, 2020 10:24am Nov 2, 2020 10:24am
USDJPY, possible short setups
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  • #8,829
  • Nov 2, 2020 11:15am Nov 2, 2020 11:15am
GOLD, possible short setups
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  • #8,830
  • Edited 1:39pm Nov 2, 2020 1:27pm | Edited 1:39pm
USDCAD level. I did take an earlier attempt but cut it for a couple pips hit.

This looks better but might take a while to develop the PA to get interested. DXY looks ready to retrace down for a bit. USDCHF scalp off 0.92.

Same situation as last week and will most likely take a couple of days to get some positions running.
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  • #8,831
  • Edited 2:54pm Nov 2, 2020 1:36pm | Edited 2:54pm
NZDUSD - It's going to run that supply zone. Limits make sense.

GBPUSD - Debated taking this counter play. RR looked good so took it. Aiming for 1.30.

EURUSD - Same same as GU. targeting H1 supply
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  • #8,832
  • Edited 2:49am Nov 3, 2020 2:29am | Edited 2:49am
EURUSD and GBPUSD coming to TP's. Now will have to see here. Quite some momentum and DXY might have some more in the tank.

AUDUSD approaching 0.71 worth a watch @ 61.8%

NZDUSD quite high in the zone @ 50%

USDCAD died a death, surprised 1.32 didn't bounce but D1 did red line into the level.
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  • #8,833
  • Nov 3, 2020 4:18am Nov 3, 2020 4:18am
Hello thread member..
good day.
i take long for EJ
entry decision is crucial point to me to push button long or short or exit.
if i can choice beetwen Engulfing candle and Harami, i will choice Harami candle as entry point and counter the trend indication..
i.e. Harami to counter EJ on D1 Tf..
may every one in profit today,
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  • #8,834
  • Nov 3, 2020 4:36am Nov 3, 2020 4:36am
Quoting C-12
EURUSD and GBPUSD coming to TP's. Now will have to see here. Quite some momentum and DXY might have some more in the tank. AUDUSD approaching 0.71 worth a watch @ 61.8% NZDUSD quite high in the zone @ 50% USDCAD died a death, surprised 1.32 didn't bounce but D1 did red line into the level. {image} {image}
Nice going! very good long trades on EU and GU.
  • #8,835
  • Nov 3, 2020 4:38am Nov 3, 2020 4:38am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDCHF, also there is a possible short setup @ 0.92 {image}
USDCHF, short trade
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  • #8,836
  • Nov 3, 2020 4:41am Nov 3, 2020 4:41am
GBPUSD moving up but i can see more sell pressure at this zone according to my HVC
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Le$$ I$ More
  • #8,837
  • Nov 3, 2020 4:43am Nov 3, 2020 4:43am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Nice going! very good long trades on EU and GU.
Cheers, unfortunately took a 25 pip loss on NZDUSD. Normally I prefer to wait for PA rejection but somehow decided to play that with a limit order.

Got USDCHF as well.
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  • #8,838
  • Nov 3, 2020 4:43am Nov 3, 2020 4:43am
USDCAD, it might be forming a triangle
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  • #8,839
  • Nov 3, 2020 4:49am Nov 3, 2020 4:49am
AUDUSD, I have a bearish bias as long as it remains below that TL and S @ 0.716
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  • #8,840
  • Nov 3, 2020 4:53am Nov 3, 2020 4:53am
Quoting shahab8b
USDCAD, it might be forming a triangle {image}
Yes, I think this USD move is a corrective retrace on DXY also. I can also see it may have some more room to go lower.

NZDUSD might be still be a sell, it's in D1 supply and the stops have been swept. If I get the PA config I will take another attempt at this sell again.

GBPUSD at 1.30 still of interest.
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