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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #6,981
  • Oct 31, 2020 12:53am Oct 31, 2020 12:53am
Let's see how profitable could be a market if you take it a piece at a time, without wild unsupported dreams:

Quoting Lock
{quote} 2937: if a real test fail all the way back to 2913. If it will succeed take note of 2913 and C period low at HB and go with it (the rally).
It tested 2937 for the second time and it did it starting from an inside period (balance rules) we take note of the poor low at 2913 and of C period low at HB (29265) and we go with the rally: we profit up to GB spike base 2981.

Quoting Lock
PS: if we will see acceptation above spike base 2981., next levels to consider before 30255 are: 29965 and 3000 (during this GB session and eventually until GB close.)
We didn't see acceptation above 2981 so we have no reason to stay anymore in our long positions.

Quoting Lock
Now, current GB profile has a very ugly structure. Take note of it. don't know if I will follow also preUS ans Pit. So in the case, have a nice weekend.
At this moment in time (I left the market) for those who were still involved, here's a handy opportunity: knowing the poor structure left downside, including the poor GB low 2913, and the C period low at 29265 a short is licit, especially after the failed test above GB high.
And in fact market went down, correcting the entire structure of GB session and taking out 29265 (C period low at initial half back.

And you also know a couple of things after all that: market participants were very weak all day long as they left a poor low at 2913 and a weak high at 29885 (back to back preUS and Pit highs)

Finally note the perfect test tag of pit September unch at 2923.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,982
  • Oct 31, 2020 2:45am Oct 31, 2020 2:45am
Quoting Trader4818
{quote} It's ok I found it on sierrachart {image}
So, do you trade futures? This is the reason I was asking you to clarify your request. I really didn't understand what you were searching for. You may use such data if you have markets that can provide them to you. And a very reliable platform to process such data, like CQG(with Atas), windotraderblue, Sierra, etc. (and it looks like you are using one of them). I strongly suggest to not try to use such tools outside controlled markets and anyone must know that even future volumes are not reliable (and clearly absolutely unreliable in a spot environment). As I traded futures for a long time, sometime I mislead myself using tick "volumes" and even speaking about them but it's only a bad habit! In a spot market as you surely know liquidity comes from the network environment and from those who provide liquidity to your broker: then different broker, or even different servers, will provide you different volumes (anyone can test it directly)

Btw orderflow is very tricky, even in a controlled market. There are almost infinite ways (like spoofing, for instance) to fool you with such information. Limit orders placed on purpose at a certain price to mislead you can disappear in a fraction of a second as you know. Now, I'm not saying that the concept of market flow is incoherent as instead it is at the base of my trading approach: here I'm saying that in a market like cable there are other ways to find liquidity gaps, cluster of weak orders or strong volume participants: for instance if you read some of my posts of Thursday you will see that I took into serious consideration the filling of a downside gap (2950-34) that was actively filled by smart traders that immediately after sold everything. And this is also at the base of my very excited alarms when I found a double pass (or most rarely triple pass) gap: odds to go and fill it are generally substantial! And when I speak of a "poor structure" I'm clearly speaking of a price range leaving a substantial amount of orders not filled (that generally will attract price to eventually fill them)

So why are you going to use an abstraction (numbers) of very visible information instead of using directly such visible information?

Now, if instead you want to use cumulative data (like those provided by NYSE) for specific instruments (like S&P 500) that is a totally different approach that I highly approve: knowing that an entire pit session (say a directional move upside) has been performed with a relative small amount of volume could be very significant in order to evaluate the real strength of such a move. And then in the following sessions you'll have a clear edge if something will go wrong upside. An other way to consistently use NYSE volumes is to consider the first hour of data (in a directional market): that in order to evaluate the conviction of market participants and the possible presence of strong operators.

Anyway this is only my opinion. Have a nice trading. Best.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,983
  • Oct 31, 2020 11:03am Oct 31, 2020 11:03am
Quoting Lock
Btw orderflow is very tricky, even in a controlled market. There are almost infinite ways (like spoofing, for instance) to fool you with such information. Limit orders placed on purpose at a certain price to mislead you can disappear in a fraction of a second as you know.
First, let me say I like this thread and do not want to derail it in any way.

However, I do take Umbrage at your last post. OrderFlow footprint charts are available and do work* in the spot Forex market. Footprints represent orders placed at the market. Accordingly, the footprint shows what has actually transacted and therefore it cannot be spoofed.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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There's a lot to learn from this thread, and I will continue to watch mostly in silence, but I just wanted to point out that organizing data via the profile or the footprint can be done in non-centralized markets. But of course, I very strong case can be made for using a centralized exchange (Futures) over a non-centralized one (Forex).

I will now shut up and go back to learning. Teach on my friend.

*Work is a relative term. As with most things in trading, whether or not something "works" is dependent on the user's level of understanding and intended purpose.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #6,984
  • Edited 2:02pm Oct 31, 2020 1:48pm | Edited 2:02pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} First, let me say I like this thread and do not want to derail it in any way. However, I do take Umbrage at your last post. OrderFlow footprint charts are available and do work* in the spot Forex market. Footprints represent orders placed at the market. Accordingly, the footprint shows what has actually transacted and therefore it cannot be spoofed. {image} There's a lot to learn from this thread, and I will continue to watch mostly in silence, but I just wanted to point out that organizing data via the profile or the footprint can be done...
I knew it was a huge debate upon this and I repeat myself almost ten times: do not answer, do not answer (that make the repetition 20 times in a raw). But then I added my contribution. And now I should be into it. But I will not. The first reason I will not is that I actually never used footprint charts in a live environment and I prefer to speak about what I actually tested in real life. The second one is that what I know about orderflow comes from what I learned from more experienced traders than me, specifically Jim Dalton. So I consider such knowledge elements as acquired and proved even without my personal engagement.
He (JD) could have used it as he's a trader with an entire life spent on this work but he didn't use it anymore during the years I spent under his teachings. And you may ask questions: why he didn't? He spoke about this topic in numerous occasions and his advises were always adverse to such approach. He also elaborate about it and what I wrote here comes also from what I remember of such considerations.

Now, some clarifications: when Marked Delta introduced foot print charts (something about 16 years ago if I remember correctly) I did spent some of my time to understand the mechanics of them. Even when they made some mods highlighting more deeply the comparison of ask and bids orders (with an adjustable threshold) I follow them trying to estimate the use of such charts in my trading analysis. My final judgment (aligned but not directly related with JD opinions) was that I did not need them. So it was not something like "they didn't work" but more something "they didn't work for me". And I thought to have expressed this pretty clearly in my contested post. If not, this is my final word about this issue.

A little notation about the "spoofing": we are speaking of two parallel but distinct elements here. The foot print charts and the DoM. Limit orders are not in the foot charts obviously and obviously there's no spoofing in them. Which in fact exist and is a common issue in the DoM. These two elements compose the order flow. So when I speak about spoofing I'm speaking of a part of the market flow approach and I do not think anyone can contest this simple obviousness. I never wrote anything different but maybe my text offered some bases to misinterpretation.

And finally some words about forex data: I clearly stressed the difference from spot market data and controlled market data. I also make some examples of the actual use I made of them (NYSE) There's no serious discussion and never will be about the unreliability of forex spot volumes. They are a piece of the market data, they depend upon the net, depend upon who is providing you such data. This does not mean you cannot use them. It means you are using approximating data with all the risks involved into it. If you're able to profit from such data, go ahead with it, as it's none of my business. But if someone comes here in this thread to discuss about such data, I considered (and I will consider) my duty to intervene and stress my opinion about it in order to advise those who follow me about the risks involved in using them.

Let me conclude this with a sincere thank you for your support and appreciation of my work here and with an advise to not use this thread to engage in topics that are not specifically aligned with my approach. I'm not saying you cannot post notes, suggestions, critics about what I'm doing here: I'm saying that I have no time to approach other methodology of tradings that could overlap with the flow of my analysis. If you want discuss such topics with me, do it privately or invite me in your threads dedicated to those specific topics.

Thank you again and have a nice trading.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,985
  • Edited 1:03am Nov 2, 2020 12:23am | Edited 1:03am
As written some days ago April has been an inside month, May attempted a break below its low and failed. As a consequence we got June, July and August trend upside, only interrupted by September when it took out August low. We went into balance.

October has been an inside month too (its range is inside September range) and as a consequence we have now the same opportunities we got during last May:

  1. we can test October low and fail and then have an opportunity to go toward the opposite direction (October high), eventually succeeding to establish a new monthly trend upside;
  2. we can test October low and fail, then attempt October high and fail again, eventually re-attempt downside;
  3. we can simply remain inside October range for an other month (thing that I consider very improbable due to the very small range of October);

or, we can see the opposite:

  1. skip the test downside (of October low) and go to test first October high, then eventually fail or succeed upside and so on..

These are in fact the balance rules: I will not repeat all of them here. It's just to clarify current monthly environment.

Anyway, if this is our monthly balance condition we can go forward saying that we are in a weekly balance as last week took out previous week low, interrupting the previous weekly trend upside. And we are in a daily balance (on an all in session chart) or in a daily trend downside if we only consider GB sessions as during last 6 GB sessions we never saw a previous GB session high taken out by the next GB session action.

Given the situation, showed in a top to bottom perspective, let's put in evidence the major refs to consider in the upcoming GB session/s:

  1. 2819-3150 is October GB range; For our balance rules, these 2 levels are the most important. A failure somewhere below 2819 can trigger a new attempt at 3150 as a failure at 3150 can trigger a new test of 2819.
  2. 29315 is October close: any attempt downside need acceptation below it as any attempt upside will need acceptation above it.
  3. 29185 is September close:even if now it's less important than October close, is still a level to highly respect: any attempt downside or upside need the same acceptation parameters we consider for October close.
  4. Finally, even if of a more modest scale we got the notorious September GB inside week range levels to consider: they are at 2821-3000

Now in case of a failure downside, as stressed multiple times before, we got huge weaknesses left upside to correct, up to October high levels (3150 zone). And I will not be surprised to see the removal of the weaknesses left previously downside 2860 and 2836 before to retrace back upside toward 3150. As I will not be surprised at all if I will see the exact opposite situation.

Finally other levels of interest are clearly Friday Gb low at 2913 and the major yearly composite poc at 2935. This last one is the fairest price at which business has been conducted in the last years: how can we disrespect it?

PS: take also note of 28895, lowest GB session close of last week, if reached.

Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,986
  • Nov 2, 2020 1:19am Nov 2, 2020 1:19am
Here’s to New week new month all ready
  • #6,987
  • Nov 2, 2020 2:10am Nov 2, 2020 2:10am
Here we are at 28895. First test.
Note the huge amount of weaknesses left upside. Take note of 2912 (just one single pip below friday GB low), 29165 tokyo HB x 2, 2939 Back to back Tokyo and Syd highs, 29885 Back to back Pit and preUS high just a pip above Friday GB high...
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  • #6,988
  • Nov 2, 2020 2:13am Nov 2, 2020 2:13am
If it will continue lower without removing at least some of upside weaknesses, to remove 2860 and eventually 2836: watch out as this action is extraordinary weak. I'm not saying it cannot last, I'm saying you have to be aware of the risk involved in it.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,989
  • Nov 2, 2020 2:24am Nov 2, 2020 2:24am
Quoting Lock
Here we are at 28895. First test. Note the huge amount of weaknesses left upside. Take note of 2912 (just one single pip below friday GB low), 29165 tokyo HB x 2, 2939 Back to back Tokyo and Syd highs, 29885 Back to back Pit and preUS high just a pip above Friday GB high...
2912: this current high creates a gap of 1 single pip below Friday GB low. Carry forward this precious info, if something will go wrong downside at some major level like 28485, 2827 or 2819... or even before at 28615...
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,990
  • Nov 2, 2020 2:30am Nov 2, 2020 2:30am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 2912: this current high creates a gap of 1 single pip below Friday GB low. Carry forward this precious info, if something will go wrong downside at some major level like 28485, 2827 or 2819... or even before at 28615...
Now, 28615 is a previous back to back GB lows: I do not think it can resist. But.. let's see the reaction below it, if taken out.
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  • #6,991
  • Nov 2, 2020 2:50am Nov 2, 2020 2:50am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Now, 28615 is a previous back to back GB lows: I do not think it can resist. But.. let's see the reaction below it, if taken out.
teken out. Let's see if it will attempt further to 28485 or will retrace before. Acceptation below 28615 clearly needed for any possible test of October low 2819.
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  • #6,992
  • Nov 2, 2020 3:11am Nov 2, 2020 3:11am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Now, 28615 is a previous back to back GB lows: I do not think it can resist. But.. let's see the reaction below it, if taken out.
Quoting Lock
{quote} teken out. Let's see if it will attempt further to 28485 or will retrace before. Acceptation below 28615 clearly needed for any possible test of October low 2819.
This is pure market generated info. I hope you see what I see.
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  • #6,993
  • Nov 2, 2020 3:16am Nov 2, 2020 3:16am
28825: automatic sell at HB. I hope for some balance in order to better clarify the possibility of this test downside. (it's over for now? It will attempt again toward October low?) Let's see
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  • #6,994
  • Nov 2, 2020 3:29am Nov 2, 2020 3:29am
Quoting Lock
28825: automatic sell at HB. I hope for some balance in order to better clarify the possibility of this test downside. (it's over for now? It will attempt again toward October low?) Let's see
poor sellers taken out. Now test from below of 28895. If failed all the way back downside 28615. If succeeded, possible retest of Friday GB low 2913..
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  • #6,995
  • Nov 2, 2020 3:54am Nov 2, 2020 3:54am
2873 current poc. It took out initial D weak low at HB. Still indecision. Possible fail above 28895
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  • #6,996
  • Nov 2, 2020 3:56am Nov 2, 2020 3:56am
Quoting Lock
2873 current poc. It took out initial D weak low at HB. Still indecision. Possible fail above 28895
nope..
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  • #6,997
  • Nov 2, 2020 3:56am Nov 2, 2020 3:56am
Quoting Lock
{quote} poor sellers taken out. Now test from below of 28895. If failed all the way back downside 28615. If succeeded, possible retest of Friday GB low 2913..
it's almost sure now.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,998
  • Nov 2, 2020 4:00am Nov 2, 2020 4:00am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 2912: this current high creates a gap of 1 single pip below Friday GB low. Carry forward this precious info, if something will go wrong downside at some major level like 28485, 2827 or 2819... or even before at 28615...
So it went down leaving a very weak high at 2912 and at the first serious ref 28615 it retraced back to it. Now if we managed to correct it the possibility for a further correction upside is substantial (2939) But obviously watch out as GB didn't test October low so we are still in the hands of weak money.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,999
  • Nov 2, 2020 4:02am Nov 2, 2020 4:02am
Quoting Lock
{quote} So it went down leaving a very weak high at 2912 and at the first serious ref 28615 it retraced back to it. Now if we managed to correct it the possibility for a further correction upside is substantial (2939) But obviously watch out as GB didn't test October low so we are still in the hands of weak money.
29185 (GB September close) is the only serious ref before 2939: monitor carefully the reaction at it, if reached.
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  • #7,000
  • Nov 2, 2020 4:12am Nov 2, 2020 4:12am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 29185 (GB September close) is the only serious ref before 2939: monitor carefully the reaction at it, if reached.
I missed the elevator down now watching levels, for breach of upper level or down we go again
I am ready for any scenario
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