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Rearden's Journal

  • #201
  • Oct 30, 2020 12:04pm Oct 30, 2020 12:04pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Me either... so here is some weekend fun for you. The weekly. {image} It looks a bit messy, but I think you'll see what is there. First, lets view the weekly, just like we do the hourly. With swings. I have little blue lines to show the move down and the movement of the swing, until it started up and I have the two white lines showing the current range. Next, I have placed the MACD on the bottom, but put the moving averages of the MACD on the top. I also have a box to show the space from the last low that held down to the simple50. Now,...

Yes G. I think I have to read it few times, check back on charts and think about correlations.....HTF and how it integrate all together to the way we are trading now. It helps. Appreciate it. Thank you for this.
  • #202
  • Nov 1, 2020 4:16am Nov 1, 2020 4:16am
Weekly Summary 26 OCT to 30 OCT

Main learning this week was from the better entry that I saw G entered to better improve the risk and taking profit at the S50 when price failed to break higher. I find this similar to waiting for better entries during a big range. But then, it was better to enter once price showed that it wanted to go up. I want to incorporate the learning from this experiment and try it out myself next time during a no bias week.

Another learning was from the weekend exercise and thinking of bias with respect to the price reacting to 12,26 ema and S50 on weekly chart. Seeing where is price is in relation to these and also where price is in relation to the previous action. I have to keep observing for a while before reaching any conclusion.
  • #203
  • Edited 11:30pm Nov 1, 2020 5:28pm | Edited 11:30pm
02 November
No bias, Down move

Price is nearing where it was during last week of September. This is a No bias week. Price has broken the 29 OCT lows and closed below. If the price do not break the Friday low, there is a chance for the price to retrace to the high of the last swing near to the white line. The S50 is near the white line. So I will place both #2 and #3. Since the price is near the lows, I will be cautious and not be greedy about the profits. So I placed the target at S1(1622).

The election happens tomorrow. So I think the best option and safest is to get involved only after that.
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  • #204
  • Nov 2, 2020 4:56pm Nov 2, 2020 4:56pm
03 November

No bias, down move, Election day

Since the market made a new low, I brought my white line down and removed my Pending orders since the market going there means, its in an upmove . The market didnt close above. So technically the market is in a down move. The market has not broken to the down side as well. I think the market will move sideways until election result. I do not know. I will not enter any new position as of now and watch the markets.
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  • #205
  • Nov 3, 2020 4:11pm Nov 3, 2020 4:11pm
03 November

No bias, Up move, Election mania

Elections aside, the markets still worked as expected. I am NOT surprised by the up move. Its the reverse of what happend last week and the week before last. I am observing and learning. I will stand aside due to election results.
  • #206
  • Nov 4, 2020 5:31pm Nov 4, 2020 5:31pm
05 November

NO BIAS, Up move

The price is still in an upmove. Yesterday I saw price coming all the way back down for a #1 trade. It has poked to the down side. I am standing by the sidelines and watching what happens.

Looking back at the week, I had couple of opportunities to trade. Previously I would worry over the missed trade and think, why didn't I take these trades which are so obvious to go in my direction. Now, mentally, I am ok to stand aside and watch price movement without getting involved.
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  • #207
  • Nov 5, 2020 6:17pm Nov 5, 2020 6:17pm
06 Nov Friday

No BIAS up move

Price has created a big range and reached the previous swing high in daily. So I will be cautious to take any long trades from here due to the increased risk, unless it breaks and hold above. This is also another reason to take profits as the market gives it instead of trying to run the trade. I am not entering any trade today but thinking how I will position myself next week(Assuming price stays within this range).
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  • #208
  • Nov 7, 2020 3:44am Nov 7, 2020 3:44am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Me either... so here is some weekend fun for you. The weekly. {image} It looks a bit messy, but I think you'll see what is there. First, lets view the weekly, just like we do the hourly. With swings. I have little blue lines to show the move down and the movement of the swing, until it started up and I have the two white lines showing the current range. Next, I have placed the MACD on the bottom, but put the moving averages of the MACD on the top. I also have a box to show the space from the last low that held down to the simple50. Now,...
i was studying MACD, the MAs on chart and some past actions

The histogram, is the difference between the MACD line and Signal line . When I was checking the histogram which is used to determine bias, as momentum increases, the lower MA(12) will move much faster with price and the higher MA will take time to catch up thereby increasing the size of histogram.

This is good until the price reach a turning point at a huge psychological level or weekly areas.If price didnt reverse(Continues) at those locations it is still ok, we can continue on with the same bias but if price turns, the MACD and signal line takes time to come closer(12 and 26 as well). Until then the histogram will indicate the previous bias, which means it wont take in to account the recent change in direction of the price.

I am just sharing some thoughts which came to my mind when checking the past actions.
  • #209
  • Nov 7, 2020 9:35am Nov 7, 2020 9:35am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} i was studying MACD, the MAs on chart and some past actions The histogram, is the difference between the MACD line and Signal line . When I was checking the histogram which is used to determine bias, as momentum increases, the lower MA(12) will move much faster with price and the higher MA will take time to catch up thereby increasing the size of histogram. This is good until the price reach a turning point at a huge psychological level or weekly areas.If price didnt reverse(Continues) at those locations it is still ok, we can continue on...
I understand you are just sharing thoughts, just make sure you don't go down a hole with MACD, be a trader of action on the chart. End of the day, you are just using the MACD for bias.
Be bullish on you.
  • #210
  • Nov 8, 2020 2:09am Nov 8, 2020 2:09am
Weekly Summary 02 November to 06 November
==============================

No trades due to elections. however I think that there was opportunities for low risk trades.

On Monday and Tuesday, Price was still in down move and as seen from previous weeks, it was better not to attempt the #3 short when price failed to break lower.
On Wednesday, price came down all the way down and attempted to hunt the stop and went up. There was a #1 trade there.

Thursday price reached the swing highs where it was on 26 and 27 OCT. Back then the price came down when it failed to break higher. This week, it came down, and found support at the pivot and went higher to close the week. I see that the price was above S50 this week which was not the case back then. I will watch this scenario in future.

Mentally, I am ok with having a full week of no trades with no pain of missing trades.

Now, since the elections results are out, I am waiting to see how the new week will open.
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  • #211
  • Nov 8, 2020 2:11am Nov 8, 2020 2:11am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} I understand you are just sharing thoughts, just make sure you don't go down a hole with MACD, be a trader of action on the chart. End of the day, you are just using the MACD for bias.
Yes G. I was trying to correlate those things that I see. Yes understand when you say "just make sure you don't go down a hole with MACD". Thank you for the feed back.
  • #212
  • Nov 8, 2020 5:14pm Nov 8, 2020 5:14pm
09 November
No Bias Week, Up move

The price is still in an upmove. I will place a PO at the pivot and S50 as per the rules with TP at 1914.

Now that the elections results are out, market opened with a tiny gap and is moving up. I will wait to see if it comes down to trigger my orders.
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  • #213
  • Nov 9, 2020 9:22am Nov 9, 2020 9:22am
Seeing that the price has not broken and held above, I cancelled my pending order. i will see the charts tomorrow morning to see if its still in up move.
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  • #214
  • Nov 9, 2020 12:33pm Nov 9, 2020 12:33pm
Quoting Rearden
Seeing that the price has not broken and held above, I cancelled my pending order. i will see the charts tomorrow morning to see if its still in up move. {image}
It actually did break above and stay above, you can see it in your pic, and then promptly declined and went into a down move by breaking below and staying below the new low, which happened a couple hours after your pic.
Be bullish on you.
  • #215
  • Nov 9, 2020 3:24pm Nov 9, 2020 3:24pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} It actually did break above and stay above, you can see it in your pic, and then promptly declined and went into a down move by breaking below and staying below the new low, which happened a couple hours after your pic.
Yes G. That was exactly my thought except the break and hold below part...I saw the hold above 1890 high that I marked. I described it wrongly. What I meant is price failed to break the high at 1898 and hold above....Repeated rejection....in that area. Thanks for correcting.
  • #216
  • Nov 9, 2020 5:00pm Nov 9, 2020 5:00pm
10 November

Up bias, Down move

Yesterday I misread the bias as No bias. The market went above the previous highs of 19 Oct -23 Oct week. But later during the day, closed below the S50. Since the price is in a down move now, I will not enter on Open. As of now, I will wait for the price to close above 1919 for any long trades. If it was in an up move, I would ahve tried a #1 from 1800 area.
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  • #217
  • Nov 10, 2020 5:04pm Nov 10, 2020 5:04pm
11 November
Up Bias, down move

Nothing much to do today. Market went below but didn't stay below. Waiting.

However, As this is an Up bias week, If the price break and hold above the S50, I will look for a pull back to it to try an idea #3b trade which G showed during first week back in April without the support of a swing but in opposite direction.
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  • #218
  • Nov 11, 2020 5:54pm Nov 11, 2020 5:54pm
12 November
Bias: UP
Move: down

Waiting for market to be back in Up move. Less likely that I will get a trade this week because its Thursday already. But I do not know. So now, its going to be two weeks of not trading and just watching the markets.

Mentally, I dont feel sad thinking I missed any move. But I feel I have to force myself NOT to trade. It doesn't come with ease. I rechecked MACD to see if its really UP Bias or a No Bias week( No bias means i have trades on Tuesday and Wednesday). I will stick to my rules and force myself to wait it out until price give me a signal to long or the bias change next week.

I will still be looking for #3b trade that I mentioned in my yesterday's post.
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  • #219
  • Nov 11, 2020 9:00pm Nov 11, 2020 9:00pm
Quoting Rearden
12 November Bias: UP Move: down Waiting for market to be back in Up move. Less likely that I will get a trade this week because its Thursday already. But I do not know. So now, its going to be two weeks of not trading and just watching the markets. Mentally, I dont feel sad thinking I missed any move. But I feel I have to force myself NOT to trade. It doesn't come with ease. I rechecked MACD to see if its really UP Bias or a No Bias week( No bias means i have trades on Tuesday and Wednesday). I will stick to my rules and force myself to wait it...
Good, you are feeling that inner evil trading demon rearing its head. You are doing an exercise on the smallest amounts possible and it doesn't even matter, the addiction of trading is showing itself. Really spend time on this. It's when you move past this addictive nature of trading and into trading as a business that everything changes. It's taken a few months, but here it is. It's showing itself.
Be bullish on you.
  • #220
  • Nov 12, 2020 5:27am Nov 12, 2020 5:27am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Good, you are feeling that inner evil trading demon rearing its head. You are doing an exercise on the smallest amounts possible and it doesn't even matter, the addiction of trading is showing itself. Really spend time on this. It's when you move past this addictive nature of trading and into trading as a business that everything changes. It's taken a few months, but here it is. It's showing itself.
Yes. I am trying to overcome my the desire to be in the trade and desire to be right and I believe I am making progress.
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