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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #8,721
  • Oct 29, 2020 10:35am Oct 29, 2020 10:35am
GBPUSD, short trade update, and possible long term scenario
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  • #8,722
  • Oct 29, 2020 10:43am Oct 29, 2020 10:43am
Quoting C-12
Took a partial out there but still going to hold some and reload around 1.33. UJ PA looks ok atm. Will slam this to BE and see what happens. Will go again on 104. {image}
Well done on UJ trade. It took off pretty good. It cannot break 104. I read Japanese banks are buying.
  • #8,723
  • Oct 29, 2020 10:54am Oct 29, 2020 10:54am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} NZDUSD, looking for a possible short between 0.7735-0.7755
NZDUSD, short trade
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  • #8,724
  • Oct 29, 2020 10:55am Oct 29, 2020 10:55am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Well done on UJ trade. It took off pretty good. It cannot break 104. I read Japanese banks are buying.
Had a feeling that might turn out to be a good level. GBPUSD getting absolutely whipped.

I can't see anything below here to stop freefall.
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  • #8,725
  • Oct 29, 2020 10:59am Oct 29, 2020 10:59am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Had a feeling that might turn out to be a good level. GBPUSD getting absolutely whipped. I can't see anything below here to stop freefall. {image}
They are all done. The plan is to sell everything against USD.
  • #8,726
  • Oct 29, 2020 11:42am Oct 29, 2020 11:42am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} NZDUSD, looking for a possible short between 0.7735-0.7755
I've just realized my mistake here. That was 0.6635-0.6655
  • #8,727
  • Oct 29, 2020 12:31pm Oct 29, 2020 12:31pm
SPX, possible double bottom on H1
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  • #8,728
  • Oct 29, 2020 12:40pm Oct 29, 2020 12:40pm
Quoting shahab8b
SPX, possible double bottom on H1 {image}
SPX, H4
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  • #8,729
  • Oct 29, 2020 1:25pm Oct 29, 2020 1:25pm
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, levels to watch, short term looks bearish, plan is to sell the rallies. {image}
EURUSD, short trade update, the vertical move indicating capitulation. Possible short setups at 1.17, 1.172, and 1.1740.
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  • #8,730
  • Oct 29, 2020 1:58pm Oct 29, 2020 1:58pm
Quoting shahab8b
USDCAD, long trade update, sl to below daily low (+120), watch out for that box for possible exhaustion/reversal. {image}
USDCAD, short trade update, good work by the box. Possible long setup @ 1.325
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  • #8,731
  • Oct 29, 2020 2:10pm Oct 29, 2020 2:10pm
GBPUSD, short trade update, possible short setups @ 1.2970 and 1.30. Stay bearish below 1.3025
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  • #8,732
  • Oct 29, 2020 2:13pm Oct 29, 2020 2:13pm
AUDUSD got that bounce a touch ahead of schedule. 3 levels of interest to add sells above.
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  • #8,733
  • Oct 29, 2020 4:12pm Oct 29, 2020 4:12pm
NC
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  • #8,734
  • Oct 29, 2020 4:39pm Oct 29, 2020 4:39pm
Quoting shahab8b
Now that we are no longer in commercial section, I am going to post some conceptual frameworks for our approach to the market. That would be in addition to what I posted with respect to COT. Following my experience with COT and TA, I formed a multidimensional approach to the market which could not be copied like a mechanical system, but proved to be useful and adaptive to various market conditions. {image} {image}
I am just going back in time I see there is some serious gold hidden away in here. I am quite surprised to find this nugget which happens to be around the time I started my FX journey in 2012.

I am planning to work my through this beast of a thread. However, is there a location within this thread with an updated version of this framework? Or anywhere specifically worth making a starting point on?

Mindful I have just started ploughing in with my own charts without doing my homework. There's 10 years of education here that I've completely brushed over.
  • #8,735
  • Oct 29, 2020 5:16pm Oct 29, 2020 5:16pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} I am just going back in time I see there is some serious gold hidden away in here. I am quite surprised to find this nugget which happens to be around the time I started my FX journey in 2012. I am planning to work my through this beast of a thread. However, is there a location within this thread with an updated version of this framework? Or anywhere specifically worth making a starting point on? Mindful I have just started ploughing in with my own charts without doing my homework. There's 10 years of education here that I've completely...
I see you went way back in time. I have posted many random things since 2009 when I joined FF. At the time I started this thread, I was very interested in combining COT data with technical analysis (TA). Then I realized pure TA is more rewarding. I still look at the COT data, but I don't trade based on it as you have noticed. Then there is a time gap, when I was doing my PhD and I didn't have time to post much. When I become more active again, I wanted to change the name of the thread to be more reflective of my price action approach rather than the COT based approach. But you cannot do that. Anyways, back to your question. I have written many things (from trading strategies to a more comprehensive approach to trading, a conceptual framework, if you may) and not posted here. Recently, I have been putting together a trading manual. Something that explains my 15-20 trading setups with examples and advanced technical details. It is not ready yet. I also plan to include updated version of the things I posted here. I will share it when it is ready.
  • #8,736
  • Oct 29, 2020 5:28pm Oct 29, 2020 5:28pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I see you went way back in time. I have posted many random things since 2009 when I joined FF. At the time I started this thread, I was very interested in combining COT data with technical analysis (TA). Then I realized pure TA is more rewarding. I still look at the COT data, but I don't trade based on it as you have noticed. Then there is a time gap, when I was doing my PhD and I didn't have time to post much. When I become more active again, I wanted to change the name of the thread to be more reflective of my price action approach rather...
Now that would be something extremely interesting. Even as a fairly seasoned PA trader, there's always something to learn with those small lightbulb moments.

I think the name of the thread may well be the reason we have so few people posting. It's completely under the radar. It was only when I began searching for round numbers I eventually stumbled across this.

As soon as I saw the charts and screenshots I saw something very familiar to what I was already doing, with more emphasis on levels than PA. That's been a real game changer already after a few weeks in.
  • #8,737
  • Oct 29, 2020 5:35pm Oct 29, 2020 5:35pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Now that would be something extremely interesting. Even as a fairly seasoned PA trader, there's always something to learn with those small lightbulb moments. I think the name of the thread may well be the reason we have so few people posting. It's completely under the radar. It was only when I began searching for round numbers I eventually stumbled across this. As soon as I saw the charts and screenshots I felt something very familiar to what I was already doing, with more emphasis on levels than PA. That's been a real game changer already...
Yea, I know that the title of thread is misleading. I know that from the number of pm I received asking about the COT data. I may consider opening a new thread with a more appropriate title under the interactive trading. A thread where similar minded traders can share their trade ideas and thoughts and grow as a community.
  • #8,738
  • Oct 29, 2020 5:52pm Oct 29, 2020 5:52pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yea, I know that the title of thread is misleading. I know that from the number of pm I received asking about the COT data. I may consider opening a new thread with a more appropriate title under the interactive trading. A thread where similar minded traders can share their trade ideas and thoughts and grow as a community.
That sounds like a great plan. My only suggestion would be to ask if you want to continue making live trade calls in open public and what alternatives there are to doing that.

The unfortunate truth about trading is many people want to eat fish but don't want to learn how to fish for themselves.

On the other hand that might be something you hold valuable so it's not for me to impose my view.
  • #8,739
  • Oct 29, 2020 6:00pm Oct 29, 2020 6:00pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} That sounds like a great plan. My only suggestion would be to ask if you want to continue making live trade calls in open public and what alternatives there are to doing that. The unfortunate truth about trading is many people want to eat fish but don't want to learn how to fish for themselves.
Yea, I am aware of that. That would be a source of concern. What other alternatives do you suggest?
  • #8,740
  • Oct 29, 2020 6:06pm Oct 29, 2020 6:06pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yea, I am aware of that. That would be a source of concern. What other alternatives do you suggest?
My advice would be to open a new thread and continue as you are.

You could then use something like Discord app to invite active members (contributors). Very easy to manage and use. Especially for posting quick charts, phone app etc.

So you know the people involved are actively looking for and posting similar levels and setups not there for signals. You would keep the thread going to attract new people interested in learning and participating.

Just an idea.
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