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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #8,701
  • Oct 29, 2020 6:54am Oct 29, 2020 6:54am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Excellent setup. Looked at it earlier. I should add a few selected cross pairs onto the menu. I saw similar on UJ earlier. Nice zone and level combo with trend. {image}
Glad to see you left he idea of long USDJPY. That's usually not a good option when you have stock markets sell off.
  • #8,702
  • Oct 29, 2020 7:00am Oct 29, 2020 7:00am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Glad to see you left he idea of long USDJPY. That's usually not a good option when you have stock markets sell off.
Still think this is an area that could produce something of a reversal or retrace on D1 but I agree with you.

I am also rethinking my approach to counter trend reversal setups (ie - top and bottom picking). There's a time and a place for them, but often it's catching a falling knife or a flying dagger.

UCHF still turtling along. normally type of slow burn PA that would turn my hair grey. Quite happy to let it do it's thing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,703
  • Oct 29, 2020 7:08am Oct 29, 2020 7:08am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Still think this is an area that could produce something of a reversal or retrace on D1 but I agree with you. I am also rethinking my approach to counter trend reversal setups (ie - top and bottom picking). There's a time and a place for them, but often it's catching a falling knife or a flying dagger.
Counter trends are find if done right. The RRR usually justifies the method. While I was posting, I noticed UJ got S @ 104. so it may turn here, as it did a few times before. Big picture I am looking at this. But 104 proved to be a strong S.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,704
  • Oct 29, 2020 7:13am Oct 29, 2020 7:13am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Counter trends are find if done right. The RRR usually justifies the method. While I was posting, I noticed UJ got S @ 104. so it may turn here, as it did a few times before. Big picture I am looking at this. But 104 proved to be a strong S. {image}
Looks like a quite heavily beaten area. 104 could be good.

Took out EU ahead of ECB. Target was 1.17 and it arrived in good time. Will look to sell this again on pullbacks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,705
  • Oct 29, 2020 7:26am Oct 29, 2020 7:26am
GBPUSD, short trade. If you are in this short trade, it's at a good place for partial tp. It may or may not get rejected here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,706
  • Oct 29, 2020 7:51am Oct 29, 2020 7:51am
Quoting shahab8b
USDCHF, formed a double bottom on H1, long setup @ 0.9080/0.9090 (retest of the neckline). levels to watch {image}
USDCHF, long trade update. I was already in. But the retest provided a clean trade. Levels to watch for possible short setup
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFH4 1029.png Size: 39 KB
  • #8,707
  • Oct 29, 2020 7:54am Oct 29, 2020 7:54am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDCHF, long trade update. I was already in. But the retest provided a clean trade. Levels to watch for possible short setup {image}
Nicely done, I just took a counter scalp on EU 1.17, bounce only. Very tight SL. And another stab at UJ long... Yes my poor discipline will get me in the end.
  • #8,708
  • Oct 29, 2020 7:57am Oct 29, 2020 7:57am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD, short trade update, levels to watch for short setups, also possible long setup @ 1.17 {image}
The reason for highlighting these levels. Some traders might be happy with a quick 10 pips trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 1029 gh.PNG Size: 51 KB
  • #8,709
  • Oct 29, 2020 8:02am Oct 29, 2020 8:02am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} The reason for highlighting these levels. Some traders might be happy with a quick 10 pips trade. {image}
Yep, I overstayed my welcome on 1.17 and let didn't grab the 10 pips, let's see if it can move up again otherwise i'll take the 6 pips hit on the SL.
  • #8,710
  • Oct 29, 2020 8:07am Oct 29, 2020 8:07am
Quoting shahab8b
AUDUSD, short trade, stay bearish below 0.716 {image}
AUDUSD, short trade update. Also daily chart looks like a triangle top pattern. A daily break below 0.70 will open more downside. Keep in mind the RBA might cut the interest rates in Nov.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,711
  • Oct 29, 2020 8:16am Oct 29, 2020 8:16am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} AUDUSD, short trade update. Also daily chart looks like a triangle top pattern. A daily break below 0.70 will open more downside. Keep in mind the RBA might cut the interest rates in Nov. {image}
Excellent trade. 0.70 may offer a counter bounce as well.
  • #8,712
  • Oct 29, 2020 8:20am Oct 29, 2020 8:20am
Quoting shahab8b
EURGBP, possible long setup @ 0.90 {image}
EURGBP, long trade
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  • #8,713
  • Oct 29, 2020 8:38am Oct 29, 2020 8:38am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} AUDUSD, short trade update. Also daily chart looks like a triangle top pattern. A daily break below 0.70 will open more downside. Keep in mind the RBA might cut the interest rates in Nov. {image}
NZDUSD can follow the same path to the downside.
  • #8,714
  • Oct 29, 2020 9:00am Oct 29, 2020 9:00am
USDCAD, watch that H1 candle close
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  • #8,715
  • Oct 29, 2020 9:40am Oct 29, 2020 9:40am
Took a partial out there but still going to hold some and reload around 1.33. UJ PA looks ok atm. Will slam this to BE and see what happens.

Will go again on 104.
Attached Image
  • #8,716
  • Oct 29, 2020 9:42am Oct 29, 2020 9:42am
Quoting shahab8b
USDCAD, long trade update, sl to below daily low (+120), watch out for that box for possible exhaustion/reversal. {image}
USDCAD, short trade.

Possible long reload @ 1.3250
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  • #8,717
  • Oct 29, 2020 9:45am Oct 29, 2020 9:45am
Quoting shahab8b
USDCAD, watch that H1 candle close {image}
This is what I meant.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,718
  • Oct 29, 2020 9:51am Oct 29, 2020 9:51am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} NZDUSD can follow the same path to the downside.
NZDUSD, looking for a possible short between 0.7735-0.7755
  • #8,719
  • Oct 29, 2020 10:00am Oct 29, 2020 10:00am
UCHF hit TP1 - 50% out.
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  • #8,720
  • Oct 29, 2020 10:16am Oct 29, 2020 10:16am
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, levels to watch, short term looks bearish, plan is to sell the rallies. {image}
EURUSD, short trade update, and possible target for this move
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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