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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #1,081
  • Oct 25, 2020 2:07pm Oct 25, 2020 2:07pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

USDCAD market operation is at the 1.31300/1.29470 zone (purple) that has held as horizontal support since October 2018 after breaking below a rising trendline (blue) traceable to October 2012 in July.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Market operation on the weekly time frame is bearing southward after retesting a previous horizontal support zone around 1.34630/1.33800 (magenta) for a role flip. After a relatively big bearish candlestick was printed three weeks ago, the last two weeks have produced two opposing candlesticks for a sideways of market operation as it gets near to the 1.31300/1.29470 multi-year horizontal support zone (purple). However, the order flow context favours bears and, technically, we may see a southward continuation this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Technicals on the daily time frame favour bears. Price action has broken below a rising counter trendline (dark violet) to respect an emerging falling trendline (black).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily_October 25, 2020.png Size: 45 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,082
  • Oct 25, 2020 3:06pm Oct 25, 2020 3:06pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The 1.20160/1.18970 zone (purple) has operated as a multi-year horizontal resistance zone on the EURUSD monthly time frame since May 2018. The bullish print of August peaked at the zone while the bearish print in September ‘wicked’ within it before breaking below it. Thus, technically, market operation has rejected the zone and the 1.17820 area (magenta) is the prevailing horizontal resistance. However, the interim print in October is ambivalent. Technically, the general market operation on the monthly time frame is sideways.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the weekly time frame, a recent sideways operation that began three weeks ago has given way to a bullish mode as a bullish continuation candlestick was printed last week. The bullish move inched towards the lower boundary of the multi-year 1.20160/1.18970 horizontal resistance zone (purple) seen on the monthly time frame. We can expect further northward move particularly as the previous candlestick prints in the zone have ‘wicky’ tops indicating some liquidity, but we may not have much distance to cover before bearish pressure sets in.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly_October 25, 2020.png Size: 47 KB


Price action is presently sideways on the daily time frame below the 1.20160/1.18970 horizontal resistance zone (purple) seen on the monthly time frame. But as the prevailing technical impulse is bullish, we may see further northward move in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, on October 23, price action made a 61.8 Fib retracement of the upward swing from 1.17020. Presently, price action is located at the 1.18610 area and it is on a bullish mode after a morning star formation during the London session on Friday. The 1.18970 area is a horizontal resistance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4_October 25, 2020.png Size: 50 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,083
  • Oct 25, 2020 3:51pm Oct 25, 2020 3:51pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPUSD market operation on the monthly time frame has entered the 1.30400/1.33500 horizontal resistance zone (purple). The interim candlestick print in October favours bulls but we should note that bears dominated the market in September.

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On the weekly time frame, the technical prints in the last six weeks indicate that bulls are becoming more influential in the market. But we should be note that market operation is presently at the 1.30400 area, which is acting as a horizontal resistance on the weekly time frame and prone to attracting bearish reaction.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, on September 8, price action broke below the 1.30400 area, which was a previous horizontal support, and it is retesting it. Last week Thursday, price action printed a bearish candlestick in the area, but the Friday candlestick print was somewhat ambivalent. We should await what price action does in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily_October 25, 2020.png Size: 40 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,084
  • Oct 28, 2020 5:49am Oct 28, 2020 5:49am
Here's a mid-week update on USDJPY. On Tuesday, a bearish price action broke down the 104.580 horizontal support area. This is likely to incentivize bears to attack the 103.700 reaction area on the W1 tf and may later expose the 103.05 handle, which has been in place since Marc 12. Of course we will see the necessary corrective moves before the 103.05 area is exposed by bears.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook The 105.14/103.70 zone (purple) has held as horizontal support for USDJPY market operation since July 2020. The interim October print has entered the zone with a bearish tinge. {image} Last week, a bearish continuation candlestick was printed within the 105.14/103.70 horizontal support zone (purple) seen on the monthly time frame. Should bears maintain their influence in the market, we may see further southward move in the early part of this week. {image} On the daily time frame, a double inside-bar formation was...
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  • #1,085
  • Oct 28, 2020 5:54am Oct 28, 2020 5:54am
The 1.17150 horizontal support area on the EURUSD D1 tf is presently under a bearish threat. A bearish follow through may see price action attempt an exposure of the 1.16150 handle.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The 1.20160/1.18970 zone (purple) has operated as a multi-year horizontal resistance zone on the EURUSD monthly time frame since May 2018. The bullish print of August peaked at the zone while the bearish print in September ‘wicked’ within it before breaking below it. Thus, technically, market operation has rejected the zone and the 1.17820 area (magenta) is the prevailing horizontal resistance. However, the interim print in October is ambivalent. Technically, the general market operation on the monthly time frame...
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  • #1,086
  • Oct 28, 2020 6:08am Oct 28, 2020 6:08am
Here's a mid-week update on GBPUSD. The failure of bulls to flip the 1.30400 area on Tuesday is likely to motivate bears to push for the low of the bullish candlestick printed on October 21, around 1.29330. The candlestick has served as a 'control' for a few days. Further bearish move may see price action test the horizontal support zone of 1.28900/1.28380 (magenta).

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting KeenPips
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook GBPUSD market operation on the monthly time frame has entered the 1.30400/1.33500 horizontal resistance zone (purple). The interim candlestick print in October favours bulls but we should note that bears dominated the market in September. {image} On the weekly time frame, the technical prints in the last six weeks indicate that bulls are becoming more influential in the market. But we should be note that market operation is presently at the 1.30400 area, which is acting as a horizontal resistance on the weekly time...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,087
  • Oct 28, 2020 6:33am Oct 28, 2020 6:33am
Presently USDCAD price action is in a bullish mode. However, the bearish market structure is not yet breached. So the bullish move is likely to be temporary in nature; unless the broken rising trendline (blue) seen on the monthly time frame is flipped for a bullish continuation. A retest of the trendline with a bearish bounce will likely lead to a southward continuation. The 1.31300 area (purple) is the prevailing horizontal support.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting KeenPips
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook USDCAD market operation is at the 1.31300/1.29470 zone (purple) that has held as horizontal support since October 2018 after breaking below a rising trendline (blue) traceable to October 2012 in July. {image} Market operation on the weekly time frame is bearing southward after retesting a previous horizontal support zone around 1.34630/1.33800 (magenta) for a role flip. After a relatively big bearish candlestick was printed three weeks ago, the last two weeks have produced two opposing candlesticks for a sideways...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,088
  • Oct 29, 2020 10:02am Oct 29, 2020 10:02am
Quoting KeenPips
Presently USDCAD price action is in a bullish mode. However, the bearish market structure is not yet breached. So the bullish move is likely to be temporary in nature; unless the broken rising trendline (blue) seen on the monthly time frame is flipped for a bullish continuation. A retest of the trendline with a bearish bounce will likely lead to a southward continuation. The 1.31300 area (purple) is the prevailing horizontal support. I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper. KP {image} {quote}
I agree with the bullish price action, however I am still not certain on the right entry. Overall I see weakness in the USD, but I also see weakness in oil which is a bullish indicator for this pair. Right now I am just watching and waiting.
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If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
  • #1,089
  • Oct 29, 2020 10:07am Oct 29, 2020 10:07am
It depends on the kind of trader you are and your trading strategy.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP

Quoting warrensapp
{quote} I agree with the bullish price action, however I am still not certain on the right entry. Overall I see weakness in the USD, but I also see weakness in oil which is a bullish indicator for this pair. Right now I am just watching and waiting. {image}
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,090
  • Nov 1, 2020 2:31pm Nov 1, 2020 2:31pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The AUDUSD market is disposed southward. On the monthly time frame, market operation printed a bearish continuation candlestick in October. Presently, market operation is located at the 0.70250 area. The 0.68800 area (green) is the prevailing horizontal support while the 0.73900 area (magenta) is the horizontal resistance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the weekly time frame, five weeks ago, a market operation printed a bullish candlestick from the 0.70250 area. This led to a 78.6 Fib retracement, four weeks ago, of the bearish impulsive drive of six weeks ago. A southward turnaround has taken market operation back to the 0.70250 area with the bearish print of last week. Technically, an ‘M’ pattern is in play and its extended downleg may target the 0.68800 horizontal support (green).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price action on the daily time frame has retested and rejected a previous horizontal support around 0.71300 (blue) for a bearish continuation. However, the bearish momentum has declined. This is seen in the indecision candlesticks printed on Thursday and Friday last week as price action got to the 0.70250 horizontal support area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily_November 1, 2020.png Size: 33 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,091
  • Nov 1, 2020 3:09pm Nov 1, 2020 3:09pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market operation is disposed southward. On the monthly time frame, a bearish continuation candlestick was in October and broke below the 1.17800 technical area (magenta), which had acted as a horizontal support. The 1.19400 area (purple), a multi-year horizontal resistance, remains intact while the 1.15430/1.14300 (green) is the next horizontal support area.

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A bearish continuation candlestick was printed last week on the weekly time frame and broke below the area of consolidation which was in place for three weeks earlier. Presently, the downleg of an ‘M’ pattern is active and we may see a bearish continuation should the 1.16100 horizontal support area (blue) on the weekly time frame be broken down. Looking left, it is apparent that during the first week in September 2020 market operation made a 78.6 Fib retracement of a downward swing from second week in April 2018 to the second week in March 2020. Market operation has just made a bearish rejection of the 61.8 Fib retracement zone last week and presently located around 1.16450. The 1.15430/1.14300 (green) potential reaction area aligns with the 50 Fib zone. Technically, we may see a bearish continuation.

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Price action on the daily time frame is disposed southward. Presently it is located a few pips above the 1.16100 horizontal support area (blue). A significant bearish breakdown of the area on a daily closing basis will likely lead to an increase in bearish momentum. I am more bearish EURUSD than bullish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,092
  • Nov 1, 2020 3:44pm Nov 1, 2020 3:44pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPUSD market operation on the monthly timeframe attempted a breakdown of the prevailing horizontal support around the 1.30400 area (purple) with a doji-like print in October. This is an inside-bar formation with the relatively big bearish print in September. Until that area is effectively broken down and flipped, the 1.33500 area (magenta) remains the prevailing horizontal resistance.

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Market operation is sideways on the weekly time frame and just below the 1.30400 technical area (purple). Notice also that the market operation is within a rising channel (blue). A bearish breakdown of the channel may encourage bears to target the 1.24900 handle (green) while a bullish drive may lead to a retest of the 1.33500 horizontal resistance area (magenta) seen on the monthly time frame.

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Price action on the H4 time frame is bearing southward within a descending channel (black). It is presently below the 1.30400 horizontal support seen on the monthly time frame. A bearish continuation is likely to target the support trendline (blue) of the rising channel seen on the weekly time frame. I am more bearish GBPUSD than bullish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,093
  • Nov 8, 2020 3:13pm Nov 8, 2020 3:13pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDJPY is disposed southward after breaking below the 104.40 technical reaction area (magenta), which has served as horizontal support for several months. On the weekly time frame, the area was broken down by the relatively big bearish candlestick printed last week. Market operation is presently a few pips above the 103.00 technical area (purple).

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On the daily time frame, the 104.40 area (magenta) is the prevailing horizontal resistance while the 103.00 area (purple) is the prevailing horizontal support. Presently, price action is sideways a few pips above the 103.00 horizonal support area where an indecision candlestick was printed on Friday. How price action handles the 103.00 area in the early part of this week will likely signpost the directional momentum for the week. A significant breakdown of the 103.00 area may see bears target the 102.00 handle (light green), which was the origin of a strong bullish move on March 10, 2020. Alternatively, a bullish turnaround is likely to meet a technical challenge at the 104.40 area (magenta).


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,094
  • Nov 8, 2020 3:20pm Nov 8, 2020 3:20pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD has been largely sideways for a while. But last week, a relatively big bullish candlestick print broke out of the sideways-channel and nestled at the 1.31800 horizontal resistance area (magenta). The 1.28500 area (green) is the prevailing horizontal support.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, price action is operating within the 1.28500/1.31800 zone. Presently, it is located around the 1.31800 horizontal resistance, where it printed an indecision candlestick last Friday. Personally, as a swing trader, I will not be looking to trade this pair until there is a momentum candlestick print on the daily time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily_November 8, 2020.png Size: 40 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.


KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,095
  • Nov 8, 2020 3:37pm Nov 8, 2020 3:37pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

In the past three months, EURUSD market operation has been within the 1.16100/1.19400 zone. Presently, the interim print in November is bullish and about 100 pips to the 1.19400 horizontal resistance area (magenta). The area has held as resistance since June 2018. The 1.16100 area (blue) is the prevailing horizontal support on the monthly time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The 1.16100/1.19400 zone has seen a sideways of market operation on the weekly time frame since the last week of July. Last week, a bullish engulfing candlestick originated from the 1.16100 horizontal support area (blue) and surged towards the 1.19400 technical resistance area (magenta). We may see a brief bullish surge to the 1.19400 area, or even possibly the 1.20100 handle, before a southward turnaround. This is indicated by the ‘wicky’-bearish rejection candlesticks of the past several weeks in the 1.19400/1.20100 area. Furthermore, technically, the 1.20100 area aligns with the 78.6 Fib of the downward swing that began in the second week of April.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price action on the daily time frame is bullish but it is at an area of potential technical reaction which accommodates previous ’topping’ patterns. Besides, the 1.19400/1.20100 area has held as horizontal resistance for quite a long while and susceptible to a bearish turnaround. Although, technically, I am more bearish EURUSD than bullish, I will await how price action handles the 1.19400/1.20100 area in the early part of this week – much likely after the daily close on Monday.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily_November 8, 2020.png Size: 41 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,096
  • Nov 15, 2020 2:22pm Nov 15, 2020 2:22pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

XAUUSD market operation has been sideways for a while. On the weekly time frame, the 1952.90 area (magenta) is technically the prevailing horizontal resistance while the 1855.00 area (purple) is technically the prevailing horizontal support. Two weeks ago, a bullish print spanned the horizontal support and the horizontal resistance. But last week a bearish print did the opposite. However, the prominent bottom-wick on the bearish print of last week indicated that bulls were still influential.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, the relatively big bearish print of last week Monday failed to break down the 1855.00 horizontal support area (purple). The price action went sideways for the next three days a few pips above the 1855.00 horizontal support areas. But on Friday, a bullish print took price action a few pips above the consolidation. Should there be a bullish follow-through in the early par of this week, the 1906.05 minor horizontal resistance (black) is technically a first target. Presently, price action is about 160 pips away from it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDDaily_November15, 2020.png Size: 35 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,097
  • Nov 15, 2020 2:46pm Nov 15, 2020 2:46pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The AUDUSD market operation has been sideways for several weeks. On the weekly time frame, market operation went to a bullish mode after the relatively big bullish print of two weeks ago. However, it nestled at the 0.72810 horizontal resistance area (magenta) where market operation printed an indecision candlestick last week, indicating a pause in bullish momentum. The 0.70040 area (purple) is the immediate horizontal support on the weekly time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, price action is sideways a few pips below the 0.72810 horizontal resistance (magenta) seen on the weekly time frame. We should note the indecision prints on four of the last six days, which portend a potential bearish rejection of the 0.72810 area. At any rate, as last week Friday’s candlestick print was bullish, we should await what happens in the early part of this week. Technically, after a brief bullish drive, we will likely see a bearish turnaround in the extended 0.72810/0.73750 horizontal resistance zone (magenta).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily_November 15, 2020.png Size: 33 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,098
  • Nov 15, 2020 3:10pm Nov 15, 2020 3:10pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

EURUSD market operation on the monthly time frame is still bullish but waning in momentum as the interim November print pushed back from the 1.19550 horizontal resistance area (purple) which it earlier surged towards. The 1.19550 horizontal resistance area is also aligned with the 78.6 Fib retracement of the downward swing from 1.24130 in April 2018 to 1.06350 in March 2020, and technically susceptible to a bearish turnaround. Technically, the prevailing horizontal support on the monthly time frame is at the 1.16300 area (blue).

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On the weekly time frame, the 1.19550/1.16300 zone has seen a lot of sideway market operation for weeks. Last week, a bearish print that originated from below the 1.19550 horizontal resistance area (purple) ended with a long tail mid-way of the relatively big bullish print that originated from the 1.16300 horizontal support area (blue) two weeks ago. This indicates that bulls are still influential in the market.

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On the daily time frame, a bullish continuation candlestick was printed on Friday which took price action above an area of consolidation. Any bullish follow-through on Monday will likely see price action target the 1.19550 horizontal resistance area seen on the monthly time frame. Technically, from the monthly technical outlook, I expect a bearish rejection of the 1.19550 horizontal resistance area and so any bullish move is likely to be temporary.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily_November 15, 2020.png Size: 39 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,099
  • Nov 15, 2020 3:40pm Nov 15, 2020 3:40pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The 1.30500 area has served as the horizontal resistance on the GBPUSD weekly time frame for several weeks until market operation broke above it two weeks ago. However, last week saw little bullish follow up as the market printed an indecision candlestick. Technically the 1.33500 area (purple) is the next horizontal resistance and the candlestick print of last week surged to the area before leaving a long upper wick a few pips below it. A rising trendline (blue) from recent swing lows indicates a technically bullish GBPUSD mode. We may see a bullish move in the early part of this week before any southward turnaround in the 1.33500 area. The 1.28900 area (green) is technically the prevailing horizontal support on the weekly time frame.

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Recent price action on the daily time frame is within a rising channel (blue), which aligns with the rising trendline seen on the weekly time frame. Technically, we can see further bullish move particularly if price action breaks above the minor horizontal resistance around the 1.32140 area (magenta). But, in the medium term, there is potential for a southward rotation, particularly around the 1.33500 horizontal resistance area (purple) seen on the weekly time frame.

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Price action on the H4 time frame made a 50 Fib retracement of the recent bullish swing and has printed a bullish continuation candlestick during the penultimate H4-session on Friday. Technically, we may see further bullish move in the early part of this week. In the short term, I am bullish GBPUSD but as I do not trade on Mondays, I will wait to see what happens on Tuesday. There is potential for a bearish turnaround after a brief bullish move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4_November 15, 2020.png Size: 55 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,100
  • Nov 22, 2020 2:15pm Nov 22, 2020 2:15pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

After the doji-like candlestick print on the AUDUSD weekly time frame two weeks ago, there was limited bullish move in the 0.72980 area as market operation gets near to the 0.73750 horizontal resistance area (magenta). This indicates a weakness in bullish momentum even though, technically, there is still room for further northward move. The outer leg of the ‘W’ pattern will likely terminate around the 0.73750 area (magenta). The 0.70040 area (purple) is the prevailing horizontal support.

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AUDUSD price action on the daily time frame continues to be sideways around the 0.72980 area over the past five days. And the candlestick prints have been relatively small. Last Friday saw a bullish candlestick print of a miniature size in the area after a similar but opposite print on Thursday. The 0.73750 area (magenta) is the prevailing horizontal resistance.

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The 0.72490/0.73390 zone (blue) is presently the operating zone for price action on the H4 time frame and price action has been choppy in the zone for quite a while. Topping patterns are also prevalent in the area, indicating an increase in bearish pressure.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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