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Rearden's Journal

  • #181
  • Oct 21, 2020 9:10am Oct 21, 2020 9:10am
The price has moved up further and my white line goes up to 1.1818. I removed the PO because my entries are lower than my white lines.
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  • #182
  • Edited 6:09pm Oct 21, 2020 4:45pm | Edited 6:09pm
22 OCT

NO bIas, Up move

I entered a trade straight away as it was near the pivot and also placed a #3 trade.

No bias week and the market has been going up straight for 3 days in a row. The price reached the previous highs. Will there be a retracement? Is it prudent to wait for a trade as close to 1818.
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  • #183
  • Oct 22, 2020 6:10pm Oct 22, 2020 6:10pm
23 OCT

NO additional entries.
Close and hold below 1818 will be the exit. The price has poked down and held above the 1818 area. So i brought the TP down to 1843.
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  • #184
  • Oct 22, 2020 10:06pm Oct 22, 2020 10:06pm
Quoting Rearden
23 OCT NO additional entries. Close and hold below 1818 will be the exit. The price has poked down and held above the 1818 area. So i brought the TP down to 1843. {image}
Double check your feed, on mine price went below and stayed below at end of day. Exit and look the other way.
Be bullish on you.
  • #185
  • Oct 23, 2020 6:16am Oct 23, 2020 6:16am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Double check your feed, on mine price went below and stayed below at end of day. Exit and look the other way.
Hi G,

I think it didnt show up on my platform. But when I check the mobile platform on my hand phone it had actually went down and held there. Any way my exit was a bit late.
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  • #186
  • Oct 23, 2020 7:04pm Oct 23, 2020 7:04pm
Weekly Summary 19 OCT to 23 OCT

I think there was no surprises this week. I have seen this type of action before during the exercise. The last trade from 22 OCT was a repetition of the trade last week(12 OCT). Similar scenarios in a NO BIAS week.

Initially This week gave an opportunity to practice running the trade from the weekly open. I will take note of this scenario.

Also, Once the market turned to the upside, it didnt retrace to the pivot and S50. Was this because the place that it turned was significant area, and there is no need to look back again to find buyers.. I am not sure. This scenario look similar to the 21 Sept to 25 Sept week where the move was to the down side but no retracement to the pivot or S50. (In both cases, price turned from significant areas. I will watch for scenarios when the price doesnt retrace to the #2 and #3 as well)

The price closed back up again and I will look long trades depending on the bias next week
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  • #187
  • Oct 25, 2020 6:12pm Oct 25, 2020 6:12pm
26 OCT

The MACD is at equal highs (or may be higher very minutely). But its not lower. SO I will take this a UP bias week.

I have placed a long PO at #2. #3 is very near. So I will not place another order.

?Price is in a range from 1785 to 1880. Price created a new high and held above within the range itself. So I am not sure if it will come down to test the low of the range at 1785-1800 area.
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  • #188
  • Oct 26, 2020 5:55pm Oct 26, 2020 5:55pm
27 OCT
=====
No BIAS, Up move

This looks like the repetition of the moves during last week and week before last. Price failing to break the previous high and then coming down.

The price has not poked the swing low, but this set up has not been successful since the start of the exercise. I have entered a trade today as per the rules and have moved down my profit target to 1850 since that is where it came down from. It may only reach the S50 as the 14 OCT trade.

?If this setup is not working, I am starting to think if this is an opportunity to trade in the opposite direction during no bias week and when price fails to break the previous swing high/low. But the problem is that the move will be against the direction which we take the trade.
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  • #189
  • Oct 27, 2020 9:29am Oct 27, 2020 9:29am
The price came up and closed above the S50. It looks like it came back to where it went down from. But my target is slightly higher where the weekly open was. I think its prudent to take the profit now given that it is a NO bias week. But I see that the price has made a HL and also never closed below 1.1800. I will wait to see if it hits my target at the swing high
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  • #190
  • Oct 27, 2020 4:49pm Oct 27, 2020 4:49pm
28 OCT

No BIAS up move

The price went to where it came down from and then came all the way down. Since the price has not held below, its still in an up move. I have entered another trade from my white line. Given the past trades during No bias week, I dont think that there is higher probability for it go up. But I will follow the rule for now and see what happens.
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  • #191
  • Oct 27, 2020 7:19pm Oct 27, 2020 7:19pm
The price has held below as expected and I exited all the trades. This was expected as I have seen this behaviour earlier during the exercise. This gives me idea on trades to avoid when trading a full account.

Mentally I am ok, as I was not expecting a win for this trade. I am happy that dong the exercise helps me to observe and learn price behaviours

Improvement: I have seen G taking a trade lower and closing it at S50. Given the clue that there is less likelihood of the trading working out from the #2 and #3(increased risk too) area during a No bias week and when price fails to breakout, its better to go for #1 entry and exit around S50.
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  • #192
  • Oct 27, 2020 7:20pm Oct 27, 2020 7:20pm
Quoting Rearden
28 OCT No BIAS up move The price went to where it came down from and then came all the way down. Since the price has not held below, its still in an up move. I have entered another trade from my white line. Given the past trades during No bias week, I dont think that there is higher probability for it go up. But I will follow the rule for now and see what happens. {image}
There you go. Hopefully you are seeing it yourself and your thoughts are matching mine. By knowing probability of price to fail, we know to be less greedy. The exercise pounds it in our head over and over.
Be bullish on you.
  • #193
  • Oct 27, 2020 8:25pm Oct 27, 2020 8:25pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} There you go. Hopefully you are seeing it yourself and your thoughts are matching mine. By knowing probability of price to fail, we know to be less greedy. The exercise pounds it in our head over and over.
Hi G,

Yes. I am seeing it myself. Yes it helps to see better entries with respect to risk and also to see which trades to avoid. Thank you.
  • #194
  • Oct 28, 2020 6:05pm Oct 28, 2020 6:05pm
29 OCT

NO Bias down move,

The price has turned to bearish move. Its nearing the previous swing low. I placed a #2 straight away and #3 trade as pending order.

?Looking at the chart I see that the major part of the move has already happend and the price is near the previous swing low. I will take note of this and will think on how to capitalise on this from the start of the move if it is a recurring pattern considering the clues of price failing to go up from previous swing highs and closing below S50.
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  • #195
  • Oct 28, 2020 7:46pm Oct 28, 2020 7:46pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi G, Yes. I am seeing it myself. Yes it helps to see better entries with respect to risk and also to see which trades to avoid. Thank you.
Is the way I trade starting to be demystified for you? seems like it.
I didn't wake up trading the way I do, I did this exercise for a long time. Probably starting to uncover the why behind the things I do or at least seeing the process at how I arrived where I did.
Be bullish on you.
  • #196
  • Oct 29, 2020 5:55am Oct 29, 2020 5:55am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Is the way I trade starting to be demystified for you? seems like it. I didn't wake up trading the way I do, I did this exercise for a long time. Probably starting to uncover the why behind the things I do or at least seeing the process at how I arrived where I did.
Hi G,

Yes it does. Now I am able to understand the process and why you take a trade from where you take. As far as I observed so far, its not exact price pattern(Dbl Top.H&S etc) or a price action which repeats... its a story that gets repeated. I think I have to really practice it again and again to burn it inside my brain until it become second nature so that I avoid guessing and altering the rules. But I am sure I am getting the hang of it.

Atleast I understand what is the current bias and what direction the price is in. One main observation was that the price comes to the area where I use to keep the stop loss and then went in the initial direction I wanted to trade.

I think there is a lot more to go before I can confidently trade a full account but I feel I am on the way. Thank you
  • #197
  • Oct 29, 2020 6:01am Oct 29, 2020 6:01am
The price hit my target for the #2 order. I removed the higher PO. Tommorow is Friday and it is nearing those swing lows in HTFs in a no bias week. I will watch for what happens and will not be eager to place a trade.
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  • #198
  • Oct 29, 2020 6:10pm Oct 29, 2020 6:10pm
Quoting Rearden
The price hit my target for the #2 order. I removed the higher PO. Tommorow is Friday and it is nearing those swing lows in HTFs in a no bias week. I will watch for what happens and will not be eager to place a trade. {image}
Obviously this one ran, eventually we'll let it run and even further down the road we'll put together the short from the s50 and have a real biggie. Good job following the rules. And yes!!! it's not the pattern, it's the story.
Be bullish on you.
  • #199
  • Oct 29, 2020 6:30pm Oct 29, 2020 6:30pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Obviously this one ran, eventually we'll let it run and even further down the road we'll put together the short from the s50 and have a real biggie. Good job following the rules. And yes!!! it's not the pattern, it's the story.
Thanks G. I am really looking forward to it. I didn't enter any trades for today.
  • #200
  • Edited 8:42pm Oct 29, 2020 7:55pm | Edited 8:42pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Thanks G. I am really looking forward to it. I didn't enter any trades for today.
Me either... so here is some weekend fun for you. The weekly.

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It looks a bit messy, but I think you'll see what is there. First, lets view the weekly, just like we do the hourly. With swings. I have little blue lines to show the move down and the movement of the swing, until it started up and I have the two white lines showing the current range.

Next, I have placed the MACD on the bottom, but put the moving averages of the MACD on the top. I also have a box to show the space from the last low that held down to the simple50. Now, never forget what the MACD really represents. It's the pulling away and together of the 12 and the 26. Notice how during the move down that 12 and 26 caught price, a couple of times it didn't, but the 50 did. (Covid created a wrinkle, but the swings still did their job).

Now, where could price turn, if it is going to? We never know for sure, but looking at the MACD lines on the chart and the simple50 gives some hints. Might not turn at all, but always know where you are.

Good to think about what we are really saying when we talk about bias from the weekly. Nothing to change our rules for here, but little tidbits for the future.
Be bullish on you.
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