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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #8,601
  • Oct 27, 2020 10:15am Oct 27, 2020 10:15am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} yes, H1 is bearish, but my goal is to get a long position for a swing trade in the direction of daily.
GBPUSD, long trade, it's looking better now. above TL and 1.3075-1.31 R zone will open more upside
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 1027jh.png Size: 42 KB
  • #8,602
  • Oct 27, 2020 10:46am Oct 27, 2020 10:46am
I am seeing a potential retrace move up on US30. Long here would only require a very small SL. Decent RR if can pullback towards 28,000.

It's a counter trend trade for sure.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,603
  • Oct 27, 2020 10:47am Oct 27, 2020 10:47am
Quoting shahab8b
GU, daily line chart, for now the structure of an uptrend remains valid. I posted my long setups previously. {image}
GU, I think this entry is as good as it gets. now it's time to sit back and enjoy the ride, tp1 1.3180, tp2 open
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily 1027d.png Size: 31 KB
  • #8,604
  • Oct 27, 2020 11:10am Oct 27, 2020 11:10am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDCAD is mixed atm. intraday may have more room to the downside if it remains below 1.32 {image}
USDCAD, that down leg was expected. From here is less clear. It may get S @ 1.3150, lets see how it develops.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADM30 102787.png Size: 40 KB
  • #8,605
  • Oct 27, 2020 11:12am Oct 27, 2020 11:12am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, long trade, it's looking better now. above TL and 1.3075-1.31 R zone will open more upside,
Got stopped out on the ShakeOut (that's why it's called a ShakeOut ) and missed the opportunity to get back in set up by said ShakeOut.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #8,606
  • Oct 27, 2020 11:15am Oct 27, 2020 11:15am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Got stopped out on the ShakeOut (that's why it's called a ShakeOut ) and missed the opportunity to get back in set up by said ShakeOut. {image}
Yea, they do that a lot before a big move.
  • #8,607
  • Oct 27, 2020 11:16am Oct 27, 2020 11:16am
Ah.... Forgot to post this one earlier on gold, but I think it's a good educational example of finding quality levels inside the world's ugliest looking PA.

Levels over PA.. basically
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  • #8,608
  • Edited 1:23pm Oct 27, 2020 12:53pm | Edited 1:23pm
Was looking at this area on UCAD for a possible long. Not on this PA. Would prefer to hold onto this. Good level here though..

GU swing long, scalp sell.

EG pullback to zone.

No other positions in the pipeline. Would like to stack some more longs on EU when PA opens up.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GU.PNG Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EG.PNG Size: 35 KB
  • #8,609
  • Oct 27, 2020 1:20pm Oct 27, 2020 1:20pm
DAX, I don't usually look at this, but what a beautiful H&Sh pattern. It's a sell if it rallies to the neckline
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  • #8,610
  • Edited 1:53pm Oct 27, 2020 1:40pm | Edited 1:53pm
Quoting shahab8b
DAX, I don't usually look at this, but what a beautiful H&Sh pattern. It's a sell if it rallies to the neckline {image}
Good point and reminder for me to stop looking for lows and getting shorts in the pullbacks.

Decided to take a stab at UCAD long and lock this upper sell. Solid area, pullback to breakout line. 15 pip SL. Target would be close to 1.32

Also a lock sell on EU and buy lock on UCHF.

UJ running nicely, target for me is quite close here.. If you've got a stack of nice runners, it's a lot easier to relax.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCAD.png Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ.png Size: 24 KB
  • #8,611
  • Edited 3:14pm Oct 27, 2020 2:59pm | Edited 3:14pm
Here's my sell lock on EU, UCHF and GU... Still looking for longs but prefer not to give back those earlier buy pips.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU lock.PNG Size: 35 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: GU Lock.PNG Size: 38 KB
  • #8,612
  • Oct 27, 2020 3:38pm Oct 27, 2020 3:38pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDCAD, that down leg was expected. From here is less clear. It may get S @ 1.3150, lets see how it develops. {image}
USDCAD, long trade
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  • #8,613
  • Oct 27, 2020 3:46pm Oct 27, 2020 3:46pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDCAD, long trade {image}
Great spot to get in, I am seeing some subtle signs USD showing some strength across the board.

EU specifically seems struggling for a bid here. Will revisit tomorrow if we get a retest of lows.
  • #8,614
  • Oct 27, 2020 3:50pm Oct 27, 2020 3:50pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Great spot to get in, I am seeing some subtle signs USD showing some strength across the board. EU specifically seems struggling for a bid here. Will revisit tomorrow if we get a retest of lows.
I was actually preparing the EU chart. It seems it's turning bearish. A clear break below 1.18 will open more downside.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 1027u.PNG Size: 119 KB
  • #8,615
  • Oct 27, 2020 3:56pm Oct 27, 2020 3:56pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I was actually preparing the EU chart. It seems it's turning bearish. A clear break below 1.18 will open more downside. {image}
I was just thinking the same, I think we're looking at the same potential across the USD stack.

In this scenario, I can't see cable holding up here either.

The kill zone above today's high now very attractive but it might already be done. I had a limit ahead of the level that just triggered.

Another run into the zone will be a good area to look for a position.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU Lock.PNG Size: 71 KB
  • #8,616
  • Oct 27, 2020 4:00pm Oct 27, 2020 4:00pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} I was just thinking the same, I think we're looking at the same potential across the USD stack. In this scenario, I can't see cable holding up here either.
I missed the good trade which was EURJPY short. This was my favorite short chart a while back then I thought it served its usefulness. It touched the neckline twice
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,617
  • Oct 27, 2020 4:03pm Oct 27, 2020 4:03pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I missed the good trade which was EURJPY short. This was my favorite short chart a while back then I thought it served its usefulness. It touched the neckline twice {image}
Looks good. I think we need a bit more info before turning fully bear on EU and GU. Still some decent levels below on both that could swing things back around.

Yes it is annoying to be holding healthy multi day positions and it comes back to BE. Such is trading I guess.
  • #8,618
  • Oct 27, 2020 4:10pm Oct 27, 2020 4:10pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Looks good. I think we need a bit more info before turning fully bear on EU and GU. Still some decent levels below on both that could swing things back around. Yes it is annoying to be holding healthy multi day positions and it comes back to BE. Such is trading I guess.
Yea, it is what it is. EU short looks better than GU short setup wise.
  • #8,619
  • Oct 27, 2020 4:13pm Oct 27, 2020 4:13pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yea, it is what it is. EU short looks better than GU short setup wise.
Yup. I managed to get in as well unintentionally. Was just looking to lock in some the lower buys. Head scratcher...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU lock.PNG Size: 27 KB
  • #8,620
  • Oct 27, 2020 4:15pm Oct 27, 2020 4:15pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yup. I managed to get in as well unintentionally. Was just looking to lock in some the lower buys. Head scratcher... {image}
Well, it was so clear when we started talking about it. You just have to go with the flow.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH 1027 2020.png Size: 37 KB
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