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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #8,561
  • Oct 26, 2020 9:16am Oct 26, 2020 9:16am
Quoting gatenio
GU my major plan for Monday is look for buying setup in the red zone {image}
GU 1h chart, buy setup.
still waiting to the supply zone and the 61.8 who kisses her and the bottom channel of the diagonal.
if all three connect at the same time, it will be magical
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  • #8,562
  • Oct 26, 2020 9:21am Oct 26, 2020 9:21am
strong bearish...
#noposition
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  • #8,563
  • Oct 26, 2020 9:38am Oct 26, 2020 9:38am
Quoting meugampong
strong bearish... #noposition {image}
yes, H1 is bearish, but my goal is to get a long position for a swing trade in the direction of daily.
  • #8,564
  • Oct 26, 2020 9:45am Oct 26, 2020 9:45am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} yes, H1 is bearish, but my goal is to get a long position for a swing trade in the direction of daily.
Roger captain.. so do i..
bigger TF still uptrend.. imo no sign for uptrend or confirmation bull entry yet atm
do you have / see any trigger to buy sir ?
  • #8,565
  • Oct 26, 2020 10:09am Oct 26, 2020 10:09am
Quoting meugampong
{quote} Roger captain.. so do i.. bigger TF still uptrend.. imo no sign for uptrend or confirmation bull entry yet atm do you have / see any trigger to buy sir ?
for now let's see if 1.30 holds, if it fails, the next S is 1.2975-1.2965. If the daily chart breaks that TL and close below 1.29, the immediate bullish count is out of the picture.

That being said, you shouldn't stop shorting it if you feel confident in your setup. You did well shorting it in the last few days. and looking at the chart, it is interesting I made money going long as this has not been a long trade in the last 3 days. So it all comes down to your entry level and how you manage your trade.

if we get a strong bounce from 1.30, it could form a double bottom on H1. Let's see how it plays out.
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  • #8,566
  • Oct 26, 2020 10:24am Oct 26, 2020 10:24am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} for now let's see if 1.30 holds, if it fails, the next S is 1.2975-1.2965. If the daily chart breaks that TL and close below 1.29, the immediate bullish count is out of the picture. That being said, you shouldn't stop shorting it if you feel confident in your setup. You did well shorting it in the last few days. and looking at the chart, it is interesting I made money going long as this has not been a long trade in the last 3 days. So it all comes down to your entry level and how you manage your trade. if we get a strong bounce from 1.30,...
The explanation sentences like this that make me amazed and feel at home on this blog, a sentence from someone who can balance himself between emotions when entering the market and tries to patiently explain it to people who are just starting to learn.

I know my previous question is a questiont provides intrigue .. but you sir .. very elegant to explain the meaning of my sentence
Each on every trader has a different analysis when looking at to the chart, but with different thoughts and perspectives, i hope it turns out that we are able to unite and strengthen mutual respect in this blog.

back to chart, 1.3080 is my concern, if it breaks up and stuck, then bulls will come back in ..
  • #8,567
  • Oct 26, 2020 10:33am Oct 26, 2020 10:33am
USDCAD, watching pa in that box for a possible short setup
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  • #8,568
  • Oct 26, 2020 10:39am Oct 26, 2020 10:39am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} for now let's see if 1.30 holds, if it fails, the next S is 1.2975-1.2965. If the daily chart breaks that TL and close below 1.29, the immediate bullish count is out of the picture. That being said, you shouldn't stop shorting it if you feel confident in your setup. You did well shorting it in the last few days. and looking at the chart, it is interesting I made money going long as this has not been a long trade in the last 3 days. So it all comes down to your entry level and how you manage your trade. if we get a strong bounce from 1.30,...
acctually, im not really sure and confident to taking short side at GBP/USD

but for GJ.. its looks clear market structure for me when i entering short..

Update GJ.. Set To +15 Pips
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  • #8,569
  • Oct 26, 2020 11:12am Oct 26, 2020 11:12am
Looking for some PA to take a long position on NQ. This may well be ready to bring out of the oven here.

The sell off the top didn't seem particularly convincing. Will have to see if I get a setup.
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  • #8,570
  • Oct 26, 2020 11:54am Oct 26, 2020 11:54am
Execution chart on NQ, total freefall atm.

UJ running.
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  • #8,571
  • Oct 26, 2020 11:55am Oct 26, 2020 11:55am
Quoting C-12
Looking for some PA to take a long position on NQ. This may well be ready to bring out of the oven here. The sell off the top didn't seem particularly convincing. Will have to see if I get a setup. {image}
This is QQQ, but they are basically the same thing in terms of levels to watch. for now looks like a sell, but the buy opportunity will come
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  • #8,572
  • Oct 26, 2020 12:03pm Oct 26, 2020 12:03pm
Quoting shahab8b
USDJPY, short trade update & possible levels to add to the position in case of a rally {image}
USDJPY, short trade update, added to position per suggested setup.
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  • #8,573
  • Oct 26, 2020 12:07pm Oct 26, 2020 12:07pm
Quoting C-12
Execution chart on NQ, total freefall atm. UJ running. {image} {image}
UJ trade was a classic high probability confluence trade. I post so many charts per day and I don't keep repeating the active setups everyday. It was good you posted that setup earlier. Hopefully some traders have benefited from that clean setup.
  • #8,574
  • Oct 26, 2020 12:14pm Oct 26, 2020 12:14pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} UJ trade was a classic high probability confluence trade. I post so many charts per day and I don't keep repeating the active setups everyday. It was good you posted that setup earlier. Hopefully some traders have benefited from that clean setup.
Oh yes, that was a fully stacked level of RN, 50% fib, S/R and Daily downtrend.

If only people took trades like that they would have very few losses and very good winners.

If we compare USDCAD at 1.32 (which was a level with fib confluence) it did not have that clean chart structure we see on UJ.

In hindsight USDCAD looks more like a downtrend breakout.
  • #8,575
  • Oct 26, 2020 12:16pm Oct 26, 2020 12:16pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} UJ trade was a classic high probability confluence trade. I post so many charts per day and I don't keep repeating the active setups everyday. It was good you posted that setup earlier. Hopefully some traders have benefited from that clean setup.
USDJPY, textbook confluence trade with almost zero DD
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  • #8,576
  • Oct 26, 2020 12:20pm Oct 26, 2020 12:20pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Oh yes, that was a fully stacked level of RN, 50% fib, S/R and Daily downtrend. If only people took trades like that they would have very few losses and very good winners. If we compare USDCAD at 1.32 (which was a level with fib confluence) it did not have that clean chart structure we see on UJ.
yea UCAD @ 1.32 was not the best setup, that's why I didn't post it first today. But It went over 120% of ADR and I thought why not. It will come back to 1.32 though. I have a short running based on my last UCAD setup.
  • #8,577
  • Oct 26, 2020 12:37pm Oct 26, 2020 12:37pm
Quoting shahab8b
SPX, bearish pressure against S {image}
SPX, looks like sell the rallies type of day
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  • #8,578
  • Edited 1:07pm Oct 26, 2020 12:39pm | Edited 1:07pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} SPX, looks like sell the rallies type of day {image}
Got NU lined up here for a possible swing setup right here. A number of confluence factors on the chart.

Negatives are not the greatest looking sell PA, and some levels of demand fairly close by. Happy to wait on this.
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  • #8,579
  • Oct 26, 2020 12:50pm Oct 26, 2020 12:50pm
Also a potential kill zone on GBPUSD formed today. As intraday trader, something to watch for tomorrow for some disruption to upside, keeping GU stuck in a range.

As for the longer term uptrend I am not certain.
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  • #8,580
  • Edited 5:09pm Oct 26, 2020 4:31pm | Edited 5:09pm
EU possible scenario for tomorrow. We've had a strong impulse move and 3 sessions of sideways retrace.

Strong evidence of buyers at 1.18. A final sweep would make sense. Onwards to 1.19

0.91 lines up on UCHF.
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