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NFP and rumors around

  • #101
  • Nov 3, 2006 4:28pm Nov 3, 2006 4:28pm
With so much broker bashing lately i will like to here from traders who trade nfp today and how there broker perform today. lets' here about your broker the good and the bad.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #102
  • Nov 3, 2006 5:13pm Nov 3, 2006 5:13pm
I think people learned their lesson with last months NFP. I mean if one is going to trade this, one has to be VERY carefull since it is the single piece of news that is the most volitile of any month. So people are just playing safe, like me, i just played with my demo, hehe, its kinda stupid, but i got screwed last month with revisions, this month was teh same thing.


Others?
  • #103
  • Nov 3, 2006 5:22pm Nov 3, 2006 5:22pm
It is a shame if anyone lost on today's non farm.
It was a 100 pip straight shot with no real pull back.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #104
  • Nov 3, 2006 5:27pm Nov 3, 2006 5:27pm
Quoting FXopportunist
It is a shame if anyone lost on today's non farm.
It was a 100 pip straight shot with no real pull back.
all within 30min.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #105
  • Nov 3, 2006 5:31pm Nov 3, 2006 5:31pm
Quoting petercross
Fifth. The Broker. I don't know if I should name the Broker. For two reasons. One> will this be considered forbidden (by FF rules) publicity? I don't know (I don't have much posts, so a newbie to the Board here). Second, I kind of fear the negative comments that could come after my post. I should only say: my Broker works to the perfection! For the past 2 months I have traded EVERY news event (2 x NFP) and have been filled up to the Pip (even if I entered the trade sometimes 5 Min before the announcement). No spread widening. I can even say that DURING the craze, my Broker allows me to move my Stop Loss "following my trade" and therefore locking in Profit all the way down. I love my Broker. Clean, professionell and works like clockwork. The trading platform as well. I hated my old Broker for its Java based platform that frooze on two NFP Fridays....I could only get in AFTER all was over to find the account in a mess).

Peter.
Traders are quick to whinge and name a bad broker for bad fills, slippage, stop hunting = bad publicity.

I can't see why anyone can't praise and name a good broker = good publicity.
  • #106
  • Nov 3, 2006 5:40pm Nov 3, 2006 5:40pm
Quoting FXopportunist
It is a shame if anyone lost on today's non farm.
It was a 100 pip straight shot with no real pull back.
Well, you seem to forget the initial fake move of some + 20 pips a few seconds before the actual announcement. This would have hit the straddlers long entry on gbp and eur for a loss. So it wasn't exactly that straight shot.

But once it reversed back, it was a clean move and I made my profits after the initial loss.
  • #107
  • Nov 3, 2006 5:59pm Nov 3, 2006 5:59pm
Quoting PipStar
Traders are quick to whinge and name a bad broker for bad fills, slippage, stop hunting = bad publicity.

I can't see why anyone can't praise and name a good broker = good publicity.
i agree.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #108
  • Nov 3, 2006 6:04pm Nov 3, 2006 6:04pm
Quoting PipStar
Well, you seem to forget the initial fake move of some + 20 pips a few seconds before the actual announcement. This would have hit the straddlers long entry on gbp and eur for a loss. So it wasn't exactly that straight shot.

But once it reversed back, it was a clean move and I made my profits after the initial loss.
The initial NFP # has no real credibility until the revision is heard these days. To me it is becoming a joke.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #109
  • Nov 3, 2006 10:01pm Nov 3, 2006 10:01pm
Fairly new to trading the news but have been doing OK – 7 trades – 5 wins, 1 lose and 1 zero. Tweaked my system ready for NFP yesterday and entered a short on EUR/USD at 1.2771 with a S/L at 1.2796. The hi was 1.2791 and that was where Oanda stopped me out!!!!! – 5pips short of my S/L/

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Mark
  • #110
  • Nov 3, 2006 10:14pm Nov 3, 2006 10:14pm
Quoting mbadrick
Fairly new to trading the news but have been doing OK – 7 trades – 5 wins, 1 lose and 1 zero. Tweaked my system ready for NFP yesterday and entered a short on EUR/USD at 1.2771 with a S/L at 1.2796. The hi was 1.2791 and that was where Oanda stopped me out!!!!! – 5pips short of my S/L/

<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>

Mark
wow!!!
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #111
  • Nov 3, 2006 10:20pm Nov 3, 2006 10:20pm
Hi,
Sorry for me to ask this stupid question. I'm not fundamentalist at all. My question is:

1. How and why "WAR" can affect the currecy?

My Answer: If people shoting killing here and there so there will no business. (Is this correct)?.


Your answer: ?


QS.
"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
  • #112
  • Nov 3, 2006 11:37pm Nov 3, 2006 11:37pm
Well you don't have much thrust in a nation that is being bombarded, do you? So if you don't have the thrust in this nation you also don't have thrust in the economy of this country. So if you trade this country that is in a war you would normaly sell the currency and buy another more stable, if you want to keep the original value.

Hope it helps a bit.
  • #113
  • Nov 4, 2006 12:35am Nov 4, 2006 12:35am
[quote=Triger$]
Quoting 4xfox
I just keep an eye on my dog right before the news release. If he scratches his right ear, I go long.... left ear short. If he doesn't scratch, I don't trade.

What would you ..if your dog starts scratching His Balls???...LOL

Go get the flea powder !!!!!!!!!!
  • #114
  • Nov 4, 2006 12:42am Nov 4, 2006 12:42am
Quoting TheWicker
Well you don't have much thrust in a nation that is being bombarded, do you? So if you don't have the thrust in this nation you also don't have thrust in the economy of this country. So if you trade this country that is in a war you would normaly sell the currency and buy another more stable, if you want to keep the original value.

Hope it helps a bit.
Thanks Wicker
"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
  • #115
  • Nov 4, 2006 1:39am Nov 4, 2006 1:39am
Quoting FXopportunist
The initial NFP # has no real credibility until the revision is heard these days. To me it is becoming a joke.
I agree 100%

I didint play the nfp, I dont play news anymore, but I was there at the news time, and I dont know if you can believe that, but no human would be so quick to react first to a bad september data and buy, and after a millisecond see the 4.4% or the revision of august data and reverse and sell.
What happend for me was incredible.
Only a computer could make such thing in a millisecond.....
I think you understand what Im saying .

This was a perfect plan to trigger stops, entry orders, slippage ,make a general mess to many traders

And I cant believe in US there is so unserious office that can make a revision from 50k to 150k
  • #116
  • Edited 2:38am Nov 4, 2006 1:50am | Edited 2:38am
I dont trade forex apart from demos for training purposes although spread-betting is mechanically the same except we dont trade lots per pip movement, we just choose the amount we want to bet per pip ( different but works out the same )

I have lost money in past months and it is always for the same two reasons.

1. The spike.

2. Slippage and spread widening.

If we get this phenomenon month in month out then we need to learn from it, as a spread-better i suffer from these things too because my broker gets his prices in much the same way as yours does.

If you normally get a spike every month then you have got to expect one this month, same with slippage and spreads. This month i just watched and it happened again. On my metaTrader screen on GBP-USD 1hr i saw a green blip as the green candle flashed up so fast it was just like a blinking light, that is the point where the uneducated pay the educated. Then the real movement started, if you ignore the first spike (think panic candle) and wait for the big move 1 0f 2 things should happen.

1. You will be right and you will take the profit.
2. You will be wrong and miss the first surge and only take a percentage of the profit.

The key word there is profit.

There again you might be unlucky or just slow and enter short at the bottom of the spike, if that happens you can guess the rest.

Its sad that traders just see $$$ when it comes to the news, even if they read other peoples horror stories, news trading looks so easy, then when they get burnt it is always someone elses fault.

Heres a point to think about:

If news trading was so easy and all you had to do is to provide the deposit for the bet (trade) then take your brokers money every time an anouncement came out, do you think any broker would really let you do it and if they did would they have the funds to pay everyone. All they have to do is body swerve 50% of the punters and the losers pay the winners. Remember you are playing by their rules

At the end of the day if you are looking for guarrantees then go buy a washing machine.

Lyndon
  • #117
  • Nov 4, 2006 2:14am Nov 4, 2006 2:14am
Quoting petercross
Yes, you're right. We should be more specific, so we can learn from each other.

First. I agree with some of you: I do not understand why there is so much fuss about this report. IT IS MESSY. But I don't care (as was stated by one of you). I just trade it.

Second. Newstrader: You have mentioned this several times in past threads and you are right on the spot. Good ol' Bloomberg was PERFECT, and here comes best: i'm sitting in South Europe and heard the number WITH the correction RIGHT away....no need of special/expensive newsservices. Simple is best. Just turned on my TV.

Third. The strangest thing with me is. I have more losses on regular trades. I fear newstimes like dead AND STILL end up trading them, with more success than regular trades in between news. I don't know why this is, but i have MORE fear, but trade BETTER on news.

Fourth. My trade. I went SHORT on GBP/USD at 1.9065 (with a SELL STOP order) only 10 minutes BEFORE the news. First i planned to straddle this, but then I decided to go only ONE way: down! With this decision and taking the trade further down I avoided the spike the went up to 1.9115. My TP was 65 Pips with 4 Regular Lots. My Stop Loss was above last High of 1.9133 (I know, I know lousy risk:reward ratio, but i find this less risky, thats just me). Made a nice profit. Again the best trade of the week (the ISM trade went well, too). I always enter 25 or more pips further down of current market price, BEFORE news. I usually circumvent the spike. Doesn't work all the time, but most of it.

Fifth. The Broker. I don't know if I should name the Broker. For two reasons. One> will this be considered forbidden (by FF rules) publicity? I don't know (I don't have much posts, so a newbie to the Board here). Second, I kind of fear the negative comments that could come after my post. I should only say: my Broker works to the perfection! For the past 2 months I have traded EVERY news event (2 x NFP) and have been filled up to the Pip (even if I entered the trade sometimes 5 Min before the announcement). No spread widening. I can even say that DURING the craze, my Broker allows me to move my Stop Loss "following my trade" and therefore locking in Profit all the way down. I love my Broker. Clean, professionell and works like clockwork. The trading platform as well. I hated my old Broker for its Java based platform that frooze on two NFP Fridays....I could only get in AFTER all was over to find the account in a mess).

Sixth (and last point...phew). We should ALL take the same direction before news and with this provoke the "land slide" we had today. This is the ultimate strategy: have all traders in the world take the same position, through the accumulation of orders at a certain point the direction WILL be triggered like a snow slide.... Why work against each other, if we can work together!

Wish you all a nice weekend and success for next week.

Peter.
Naming your broker might help others who have had problems with theirs.
  • #118
  • Nov 4, 2006 3:02am Nov 4, 2006 3:02am
I dont think talking about brokers helps very much now.
I did also in the past, but now I have complitly different prospective.
Just dont play the news, because during news brokers have always better excuses to justify slippage, orders not filled, orders triggered when the price was not reached etc.

If you dont understand first with whom you are playing the game, its hard you will win this game.

Any kind of business you start needs an overview of the market first, of who are yourr clients, your competitors, what you must sell, where you can buy etc..

Same is with trading. First know the tricks that are behind this, then be smarter then those who want your money.

Dont believe trading world is a clean and honest place...

I invite you to think about this
  • #119
  • Nov 4, 2006 4:33am Nov 4, 2006 4:33am
The problem is that NFP had revisions all the time. I saw BLS reports where the actual number was revised three consecutive months (ie August revised in Sept, Oct and Nov). I have not done an analysis, but it seems that only in the past two or three months, the revisions are more important than the actual number.



Quoting dsb104
I agree on the NFP being dubious. Would be electorally conspiratorial if the nov figure was revised down next month. I think though, that this could have ramifications on the next GDP release. There could be another whipshaw then, as the oct figs are bound to be revised upwards.

Therefore the strategy on NFP days is to just to wait for the number, then fade the move if revisions. Straddles would be ineffective on this day. Or simply stand aside.

It was interesting today that only the nzd/usd didnt have a whipshaw, so maybe that currency is more reliable in the future.
The trend isyour friend untilis about to end...
  • #120
  • Nov 4, 2006 5:04am Nov 4, 2006 5:04am
Sorry, what's FRED? (google can't give me too many clues
I just want to see where are published those revised numbers. Because they must be publishing somewhere those revisions.

This months they published revision for august and september:
Nonfarm payroll employment grew by 92,000 in October follow-
ing gains of 148,000 in September and 230,000 in August (as revised).

August NFP
initial: 128000
Oct rev: 188000
Nov rev: 230000

September NFP
initial: 51000
Nov rev: 148000




Quoting abobtrader
The FRED database should have the revised data (ie more recent estimates), but I don't think they have the original data series...as the revisions come in, so they data will be ammended to be as accurate as possible.
The trend isyour friend untilis about to end...
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