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  • #161
  • Oct 9, 2020 11:03am Oct 9, 2020 11:03am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Noticed you moved those targets down... really didn't need to since you didn't take any new entries. Check in mentally and make sure you aren't moving targets down out of ego. We are in an exercise so this is the time to not fear failure. This may not be the case, but I believe you did this one other time and it stuck out to me. Good observation on the emotional dialogue from 2 posts ago... its a huge learning. Sometimes price doesn't go anywhere, it takes a break, awaits the conditions to be met for the next move. It's a slow storm that...
Hi G,

I thought ..that was from where the price came down and let me move the target down from where it is.

Rethinking on why I brought the TP down, I feel it was slightly boredom which led me to 'some how reach a conclusion' to this trade. What if it goes to where I took profit then come down and start ranging again. I also thought after holding this for few days and waiting this much I shouldn't let it be a loser and more importantly.... don't be in negative and hold over weekend thinking what will happen on Monday.

I feel it a bit strange because I didnt feel this emotion even when I was down by massive amount of pips...(like -200 pips) trading the huge range during first week of September. I had no problem holding those trades(patience wise) waiting to see what will happen. I was going down and down each day back then.... This week I dont think all the 3 positions combined went to negative.... Whenever I checked it was positive. Anyway even if positive or negative, i am not losing or making huge amount. So its not about the money that I win or lose in these trades.

I think that is because there was some action back then in September(Even though its against me)... This week its too slow... so no excitement...(massive ETB) So get rid of the position when it feels good....

Thank you for the feedback. It gave some pointers to think about why I did what I did.
  • #162
  • Oct 9, 2020 12:51pm Oct 9, 2020 12:51pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi G, I thought ..that was from where the price came down and let me move the target down from where it is. Rethinking on why I brought the TP down, I feel it was slightly boredom which led me to 'some how reach a conclusion' to this trade. What if it goes to where I took profit then come down and start ranging again. I also thought after holding this for few days and waiting this much I shouldn't let it be a loser and more importantly.... don't be in negative and hold over weekend thinking what will happen on Monday. I feel it a bit strange...
Great post... now you are getting somewhere.
Be bullish on you.
  • #163
  • Oct 11, 2020 5:53pm Oct 11, 2020 5:53pm
12 Oct

No Bias week, UP Move

The price has closed and held above the last high on 05 oct. So the white lines goes to 1724. I have put PO for a #2 and #3.
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  • #164
  • Oct 12, 2020 5:36pm Oct 12, 2020 5:36pm
13 OCT
No bias , UP move

The price came down and triggered by #2 entry. the #3 was not triggered since the entry was not updated as the MA moved higher. The price attempted to go above the high on Friday and was unable to do so. The gap was closed and it created a lower high but closed above the S50 and pivot.

Today, the #2 and #3 are so close to my entry that I already have.So I will not enter any trades new.

During the exercise, I had updated the MA one time and it triggered and went up. Last time I updated it and it came down further to where S50 was in the morning. Yesterday, I didnt update it to see if it will come down to take me in. It didnt. I have to choose one and do that consistently.
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  • #165
  • Oct 13, 2020 5:26pm Oct 13, 2020 5:26pm
14 OCT

The price made lower highs and came down below the S50 and pivot. The price came all the way down to the previous swing low.

As per the rules, I entered a long position and brought down my target to 1824. There is no change to the white line.

The position from Monday is similar to the early entries I had for the previous trade. The positions from the edge or atleast below 50% gives better risk reward.
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  • #166
  • Edited Oct 15, 2020 12:58am Oct 14, 2020 5:36pm | Edited Oct 15, 2020 12:58am
15 OCT

No Bias Up Move

The price came down to my white line broke it but didn't hold below. The price went above the last minor swing. On 07 OCT, it closed below the S50 and pivot but went up eventually. Since price is below S50 and in a No bias week, I will do what I did during the ranging market ie to bring down the target to where it came from.

I saw the post by G which says his simple thought on 28 September trade was that the price was close to the white line and we didn't have directional bias. Considering that in this no bias scenario, I think....since there are no strong conviction in a No bias week for either bulls or the bears, they (bulls in this case) may wait longer to regroup and buy again. Hence, they wait for the location with least possibility risk instead of buying early.

? The price has poked the 1724 area. I will watch if it goes up and then come down to break the level.

Update: No entries for today as the entry is already in place. I see a possible entry after the Stop hunting attempt yesterday. that was very close to the white line at 1724 but its an #1 trade.
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  • #167
  • Oct 15, 2020 5:31am Oct 15, 2020 5:31am
I am out of this trade since the price has run down and stayed below my white line at 1724. I think this reiterate one of the take aways from trading the range last month when it was UP bias UP move.

> In a wide range, if price travels against your bias, best to wait for signs that price has changed in some way. And then use a retrace for entry to maximize value.
> a trade from the edge of the range offers best entry and possibly the best time to stretch a profit.

In this chart there is nothing which shows that the price has changed in some way to enter long.

Mentally I am ok with this loss as I am still learning and huge capital is not involved at all.

Now since the market has held below and since this is a No bias week, I will look for #2 and #3 shorts tomorrow.
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  • #168
  • Oct 15, 2020 5:19pm Oct 15, 2020 5:19pm
16 OCT

No BIAS down move.

the price came down further and held below .So my white line came down further to 1725. Looking to the left this is where price was on 02 OCT. As per the rules, I have placed a PO at 1717 pivot and no entry at S50 since that is above the white line. Since this is a no bias week, I will be cautious of price not showing any signs of going down and if it will go up as it did on 28 Sept because the white line is so close.

? Thinking further about the trade yesterday, I am thinking...The price poked the white line, the result has been the break of that level in the past. Should I have entered a #1 trade there targeting S50 and then be patient on 15 Oct since there was no close above the S50 and HLs. That will be the first trade of the week since price never showed it want to go up from the start of the week.
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  • #169
  • Oct 15, 2020 8:48pm Oct 15, 2020 8:48pm
Quoting Rearden
16 OCT No BIAS down move. the price came down further and held below .So my white line came down further to 1725. Looking to the left this is where price was on 02 OCT. As per the rules, I have placed a PO at 1717 pivot and no entry at S50 since that is above the white line. Since this is a no bias week, I will be cautious of price not showing any signs of going down and if it will go up as it did on 28 Sept because the white line is so close. ? Thinking further about the trade yesterday, I am thinking...The price poked the white line, the result...
Out all week and not trading, so this is my first look at the charts this week. So, this should look familiar to some trading I did right before the exercise. I talked about how sometimes price getting back to the simple50 is all we can expect. Do you see where I would get this notion from?

Now obviously the constraints of the exercise don't let you capitalize on this, but it's the constraints of the exercise that should be helping you see it, clarify it, and ultimately trade it down the road.
Be bullish on you.
  • #170
  • Oct 16, 2020 8:15am Oct 16, 2020 8:15am
The price went up and held above my white line on the trade. I was not expecting a run down for this trade as this is a no bias week. This is not surprising since the white line was very close to entry on a week with no directional bias ....just like the 28 Sept trade. The price was near the previous swing low too.

I am thinking to be watchful of these type of scenarios in the future and try to avoid it when the same scenario/story happens again
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  • #171
  • Oct 16, 2020 8:20am Oct 16, 2020 8:20am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Out all week and not trading, so this is my first look at the charts this week. So, this should look familiar to some trading I did right before the exercise. I talked about how sometimes price getting back to the simple50 is all we can expect. Do you see where I would get this notion from? Now obviously the constraints of the exercise don't let you capitalize on this, but it's the constraints of the exercise that should be helping you see it, clarify it, and ultimately trade it down the road.
Hi G,

Yes. Going through it by myself , I understand it. This was one of the questions that I had for myself since I saw you do it. When to exit at S50 and when not to do it. I hope to capitalize on this down the road.
  • #172
  • Oct 16, 2020 5:54pm Oct 16, 2020 5:54pm
Weekly Summary 12 OCT to 16 OCT
=======================
i think this is a good week even though the two trades that I took didn't make any profit. This week was more of a repetition of the trading that I did back when it was a range. Those concepts played out again, but this time in a NO bias week. In a wide range its better to wait for price to show some signs that it has changed direction before entering.

I also learned about the importance of waiting for a good trade. As discussed back then, its better to wait for few days and take a 50 pip trade than being in a -200 pip trade expecting it to go higher.

Emotionally I was ok with both the trades regardless of the result.

? i am also noticing that once the price hold under/above my white line, the price reacts to the area which it broke out from. It happend with the 1753 back then and now 1724. I will keep a watch on this as well
  • #173
  • Edited 6:18pm Oct 18, 2020 5:48pm | Edited 6:18pm
19 OCT

NO BIAS, UP Move

The market had held above the last swing high. It had also went and held above the 50 SMA(after 3 days) but came back down and closed below the 50 SMA at the end of the day.

Since the price is near the S50 and pivot I entered Long straight away. I see potential opportunities to enter #1 further down at 1.1700 BRN etc. or even as close to 1687 which is where the white line is.

? I considered the two bar pull back on 15 OCT as the swing high and my white line was based on that. The break and hold was based on this swing . I will wait and see if this was too aggressive and if I should have considered the bigger swing at 1752.
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  • #174
  • Oct 19, 2020 5:28am Oct 19, 2020 5:28am
Quoting Rearden
19 OCT NO BIAS, UP Move The market had held above the last swing high. It had also went and held above the 50 SMA(after 3 days) but came back down and closed below the 50 SMA at the end of the day. Since the price is near the S50 and pivot I entered Long straight away. I see potential opportunities to enter #1 further down at 1.1700 BRN etc. or even as close to 1687 which is where the white line is. ? I considered the two bar pull back on 15 OCT as the swing high and my white line was based on that. The break and hold was based on this swing . I...

The price hit the target .

Price showed that it want to go up for the first time on Friday, since early last week. Price came all the way to the previous swing lows and then showed a sign that it wanted to go up.

?the pattern at S50 is similar to the ones identified which provides clues for deeper retracement. I will keep this in mind and take note of this pattern in future.
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  • #175
  • Oct 19, 2020 5:35pm Oct 19, 2020 5:35pm
20 OCT

No bias, Up move

Moved the white line to 1703 and placed #2 and #3 trades with the next swing high as target.

? Think about scenarios like yesterday where you have an opportunity to Run trades
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  • #176
  • Oct 19, 2020 8:27pm Oct 19, 2020 8:27pm
Quoting Rearden
20 OCT No bias, Up move Moved the white line to 1703 and placed #2 and #3 trades with the next swing high as target. ? Think about scenarios like yesterday where you have an opportunity to Run trades {image}
Finally back. Looks like I missed a good one today.

Yes, think about it... when you took that trade on the change of direction, is there any better place to try and catch one that might run? Nope. For now, we'll follow the rules, but that might be a good candidate for something to test when we start applying things we see.
Be bullish on you.
  • #177
  • Oct 20, 2020 5:55pm Oct 20, 2020 5:55pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Finally back. Looks like I missed a good one today. Yes, think about it... when you took that trade on the change of direction, is there any better place to try and catch one that might run? Nope. For now, we'll follow the rules, but that might be a good candidate for something to test when we start applying things we see.
Welcome back G.
Yes. Sticking to the rules as of now. But I saw the retracement to 1.1700 area before the move up. But that s a #1 trade.
  • #178
  • Oct 20, 2020 6:05pm Oct 20, 2020 6:05pm
21 OCT Wednesday

No BIAS, UP move.

The price went up higher without retracing to pivot and S50 and reached the previous swing high. I have placed a trade at #2 and #3.

? This is the very next day after price has significantly went up and the price has much potential to go up further. So can we expect deeper retracement on these scenarios Or is it better to take an entry expecting small retracements?

?This is a NO bias week and price has reached last swing high. Will there be a deeper retracement. I will be cautious about any repeated rejections from the top as earlier entries was not profitable as per the results from previous weeks. Entries as close to 1759 as possible will be much better.
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  • #179
  • Oct 21, 2020 7:10am Oct 21, 2020 7:10am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Welcome back G. Yes. Sticking to the rules as of now. But I saw the retracement to 1.1700 area before the move up. But that s a #1 trade.
Sorry if I was unclear... I wasn't talking about a #1 trade, I was agreeing with your statement that these are the places to be aggressive with targets and let things try to run. Everyone always wants to know about where to close, when to let something run... On these turns, back in to the direction of the larger supported move, is a good candidate for where we could be trying them.

We'll wait to implement, but we want to keep these ideas in mind.
Be bullish on you.
  • #180
  • Oct 21, 2020 9:07am Oct 21, 2020 9:07am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Sorry if I was unclear... I wasn't talking about a #1 trade, I was agreeing with your statement that these are the places to be aggressive with targets and let things try to run. Everyone always wants to know about where to close, when to let something run... On these turns, back in to the direction of the larger supported move, is a good candidate for where we could be trying them. We'll wait to implement, but we want to keep these ideas in mind.
Ya. I think i misunderstood that. Thank you G, for clarifying that.
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