OxyGen FX Trading Journal

Trade Update:
AUDJPY [email protected], close now for -10 pips
AUDJPY [email protected], close now for +25 pips
AUDJPY [email protected], close now for +110 pips
AUDJPY [email protected], close now for +25 pips (oh, there was a typo in previous post, it should be 75.57, not 75.77)
(Nett: +160 pips thereabouts, but each is small position, as previously mentioned)

AUDUSD [email protected],
AUDUSD [email protected]
AUDUSD [email protected]
AUDUSD [email protected]

CADJPY [email protected]
CADJPY [email protected]
CADJPY [email protected]

EURUSD [email protected]

EURCHF [email protected]

NZDJPY [email protected]
NZDJPY [email protected]

NZDUSD [email protected]

USDCHF [email protected]



Closing this whole set of AUDJPY shorts. My platform depicts "shorts" using yellow triangles (see chart)

Good Morning Asia session traders!

TRADE UPDATE:
AUDJPY shorts, closed, see previous post.

AUDUSD [email protected],
AUDUSD [email protected]
AUDUSD [email protected]
AUDUSD [email protected]

CADJPY [email protected]
CADJPY [email protected]
CADJPY [email protected]

EURUSD [email protected]

EURCHF [email protected]

new, GBPJPY [email protected]

new, GBPUSD [email protected]

NZDJPY [email protected]
NZDJPY [email protected]

NZDUSD [email protected]

USDCHF [email protected]


GBPJPY, hoping the rising line is a good resistance so that price will fall from here.


GBPUSD, price broke below channel, which is typically a sign of (short term) bear trend. The bounce is strong but it is still contained within the channel. Hope the is a good resistance so that price will fall from here. GU has been trying to get back above 1.30 many times since mid September. It is possible that the 1.30-1.3050 (zone) has many sellers and is a strong resistance.
BREXIT talks, be it good or bad, there are still background issues like BOE considering negative rates, and worsening COVID.

Yesterday Europe session is a mixed bag, while US session is mainly red.

London opens!

TRADE UPDATE:
AUDUSD [email protected], close now for +10
AUDUSD [email protected], close now for +30
AUDUSD [email protected], close now for +130
AUDUSD [email protected], close now for +60
(NETT: +230 pips. Shorts are depicted by my platform as yellow triangles)

CADJPY [email protected]
CADJPY [email protected]
CADJPY [email protected]

EURUSD [email protected]

EURCHF [email protected]

GBPJPY [email protected]

GBPUSD [email protected]

NZDJPY [email protected]
NZDJPY [email protected]

NZDUSD [email protected]

USDCHF [email protected]


AUDUSD short sets

Asia Indices all in red. London opens will see interesting GBP price action.

TRADE UPDATE:
AUDUSD short all closed. See previous post, #243.

CADJPY [email protected]
CADJPY [email protected]
CADJPY [email protected]

EURUSD [email protected]

EURCHF [email protected]

GBPJPY [email protected]

GBPUSD [email protected]

NZDJPY [email protected]
NZDJPY [email protected]

NZDUSD [email protected], close now for +30 pips.

USDCHF [email protected]

CHARTS
NZDUSD, 4hr, shorts shown as yellow triangles by my platform. Closing now as it nears base of large channel

TRADE UPDATE:
AUDUSD short all closed. See previous post, #243.

CADJPY [email protected]
CADJPY [email protected]
CADJPY [email protected]

EURUSD [email protected]

EURCHF [email protected]

GBPJPY [email protected]

GBPUSD [email protected]

NZDJPY [email protected], close now for -5 pips
NZDJPY [email protected], close now for +20 pips

NZDUSD [email protected], close now for +30 pips.

USDCHF [email protected]

****************
CHARTS
NZDJPY shorts, close now

TRADE UPDATE:

CADJPY [email protected]
CADJPY [email protected]
CADJPY [email protected]

EURUSD [email protected], close now for +30 pips

EURCHF [email protected]

GBPJPY [email protected]

GBPUSD [email protected]

USDCHF [email protected]

AUDUSD shorts all closed. See previous post, #243.
NZDJPY shorts all closed. See previous post #245
NZDUSD shorts all closed. See previous post #245

***********
EURUSD, as it nears 1.17.

TRADE UPDATE:
CADJPY [email protected], close now for -105 pips
CADJPY [email protected], close now for +70 pips
CADJPY [email protected], close now for +15 pips
(NETT: -20 pips loss)

EURCHF [email protected], still active
GBPJPY [email protected], still active
GBPUSD [email protected], still active
USDCHF [email protected], still active

AUDUSD shorts all closed. See previous post, #243.
NZDJPY shorts all closed. See previous post #245
NZDUSD shorts all closed. See previous post #245
EURUSD short closed. See previous post #246

*******************
CADJPY

TRADE UPDATE:
GBPJPY [email protected], closing now for +80 pips
GBPUSD [email protected], closing now for +100 pips

EURCHF [email protected], still active
USDCHF [email protected], still active

AUDUSD shorts all closed. See previous post, #243.
NZDJPY shorts all closed. See previous post #245
NZDUSD shorts all closed. See previous post #245
EURUSD short closed. See previous post #246
CADJPY shorts all closed. See previous post #247.

NEWS
France and UK imposed stricter curfew for COVID.
For BREXIT, I am not too sure what is going on. Many say there will be extensions. So it became a non-event for now.


************
Trades.
Closing of GBPUSD and GBPJPY

TRADE UPDATE:
new, GBPJPY [email protected]

new, GBPUSD [email protected]

EURCHF [email protected], still active

USDCHF [email protected], still active

NY session opens. While Dow Futures are in deep red, it recovers just before NY and subsequently DJIA opens with only red less than -1% and recovering.

News
BREXIT deadline, talks stalled.
France, UK, new curfew due to COVID
US COVID Stimulus talks stalled.

Good morning Asia session Traders!

TRADE UPDATE:
new, AUDJPY [email protected]
new, AUDUSD [email protected]
EURCHF [email protected], active
GBPJPY [email protected], active
GBPUSD [email protected], active
USDCHF [email protected], active

For Indices, yesterday Asia and Europe were both in red of at least -1.5%, and US started off deep but steadily recover to 0.1% away from positive.
BREXIT talks once again cannot be finalise and will continue (as expected...).
France and UK imposing new COVID curfews, highlighting the emergence of 2nd-wave infections.
AUDUSD sank because of talks from RBA hinting possible rate cuts (in November), and affected by China's data showing slowing growth and China imposing curbs on Australian coals.
PBOC abandoned FX restrictions for their banks (news 6 days ago, but still, its worth mentioning again), no need to set aside cash for FX positions, and USDCHN soared.
Centrals Banks around the world are all talking about rate cuts and negative rates (RBA, RBNZ, BOE, ECB....), and money is now flowing in massive bulk to China bonds for safety and good interest rates. China = safety + wealth.
US elections, not much progress. Nothing nonsense from TRUMP worth mentioning.

What will Asia session brings?
Most of the pairs (except NZD) are moving steadily down, althought it cannot be seen as a bear trend yet.
Today is Friday, end of the week.

Asia now fully open, with no panic selling of stocks nor FX.
In fact, Asia Indices are gently rising.

Previously, I mentioned reports of money flowing to China bonds for safety and interest rates.
This might explain why Asia is rising. Money might not be going into Asia stocks in mass, but at least big money is flowing to China and Asia in other forms, which might create optimism there. There is no reports regarding this, and this is my own speculation, and I have no training in economics. LOL.

FX Majors are not rising together with Asia stocks.
There is still fear in the FX market and flight to safety of USD, JPY (and China bonds and Asia stocks? LOL )



TRADE UPDATE:
As per previous post, not much to update as there is not much movement.


CURRENCY PAIRS SUMMARY (For my own trading perspective, not meant as a professional view)
AUDJPY: The pair broke below 75 figure after the 4th try, which may suggest the 2-week old rally is just a correction.
AUDUSD: The pair broke below 0.7098 (7th Oct low), which may suggest the 2-week old rally is just a correction. Affected by the price of iron, gold, and China ban Aust coal, PBOC scraps bank requirements. Talks of interest rates cuts (to 0.1%) in November.

EURJPY: The pair broke below 123.02 (2nd Oct low), which may suggest the 2-week old rally is just a correction.
EURUSD: The pair broke below 1.1695, which may suggest the 2-week old rally is just a correction. ECB speech on using various tools including further rate cuts, and the emergence of COVID 2nd wave infections.

GBPJPY: The pair broke below a 2-week old rising channel and also below 135.89 (7th Oct), which may suggest the 2-week old rally is just a correction.
GBPUSD: The pair broke below a 2-week rising line, and seems to have difficulty sustaining above 1.30 figure, although it needs to fall further before suggesting that it’s two week old rally is a correction. BREXIT talks to continue. UK impose new COVID curfew.

NZDJPY: The pair broke below 69.41 (8th Oct), which may suggest the 2-week old rally is just a correction.
NZDUSD: The pair is still loitering along the base of the large rising channel that starts from June2020. RBNZ researching negative rates and other tools.

USDCHF: While price action from July seems to suggest a creation of inverse SHS (bullish), but it also seems to be just consolidating above 0.90. Traditional safe haven currency but SNB prone to intervention.

USDJPY: Consolidating between 105 and 106. New PM Suga will continue Abenomics. Or so it seems.

TRADE UPDATE:
new, EURUSD [email protected]

AUDJPY [email protected], active
AUDUSD [email protected], active
EURCHF [email protected], active
GBPJPY [email protected], active
GBPUSD [email protected], active
USDCHF [email protected], active


EURUSD, unable to sustain back above large SHS neckline, and now resting on a possible rising line that starts from June, and also now at a confluence of bottoms that may serve as support. On 4hr, a mini SHS adds to the stress.
The Daily candle is very tiny, and there are 18 more hours to go to form it.
Things are not looking good in Europe in terms of BREXIT, COVID and Central Bank rates.
I am proposing EU fall from here at least in the short term.

TRADE UPDATE:
GBPJPY [email protected], closed for +70 pips
GBPUSD [email protected], closed for +70 pips

AUDJPY [email protected], active
AUDUSD [email protected], active
EURCHF [email protected], active
EURUSD [email protected], active
USDCHF [email protected], active

Tweets. Not news and not official statements. Yes, just tweets regarding BREXIT, and sent the FX market wild.
Decided to leave this circus when a tweet-inspired spike down presents a profitable opportunity.

TRADE UPDATE:
EURUSD [email protected], closed now together with another EURUSD short at top of mini rally, for NETT +2 pips. (see pic of chart)
AUDJPY [email protected], closed now for +15 pips
AUDUSD [email protected], closed now for +10 pips
EURCHF [email protected], close now for -10 pips loss
USDCHF [email protected], closed now for -30 pips loss.


If today is NOT Friday, likely I will hold.
But I would like to close as much as possible for the weekend since today is already Friday and near noon of NY session.
Hence now no positions over the weekend!
Sweet!

TRADE UPDATE:
None held over the weekend.

Calendar, top tier events

Currency Pairs Summary
All the Majors and Yen-pairs are in the exact same position.
- Made 2020 yearly high around 1st Sep, and subsequent fell deeply.
- Rebound made from around 24th Sep, some quite strongly.
- The rebound falters and dropped, but yet to take out the 24th Sep low.
At this point, I hesitate to shout out that "the rebound is over", as it is still technically possible to rally from here (yes, even for AUD).
This also means it might just consolidate, hence prudent to be less ambitious of trend calling and start thinking of range trading (horizontal and channels).

The main focus next week is from Twitter.
Tweets on US election saga (likely by Trump) and BREXIT officials.


AUD: Affected by Iron, Gold, and China economy. China banned Australian coal. PBOC scraps China banks FX requirements. RBA likely cut rates to 0.1% in Nov.
EUR: COVID, France lockdown and other Europe countries having 2nd wave. ECB talks of rate cuts. EU not giving in to BREXIT.
GBP: BREXIT insane tweets. COVID lockdown. BOE talks of rate cuts, even asking banks if they can handle. Mood's downgrade UK rating.
NZD: PM Jacinda won election by landslide, ensured political stability. RBNZ talks of negative rates.
USD: POTUS election. COVID 2nd wave. Sales and other data increasingly positive. China impose export control law.

EDIT: added in Moody's and China new export law.

Morning Asia Traders! First day of the week, hope to have a profitable week!

TRADE UPDATE:
new, AUDUSD [email protected]
new, GBPUSD [email protected]
new, NZDUSD [email protected]

My proposed trades. Hope this works.

TRADE UPDATE:
new, AUDJPY [email protected]
AUDUSD [email protected], still active
GBPUSD [email protected], still active
NZDUSD [email protected], still active


AUDJPY short. The 75 figure seems to be a place of contention. Think of it as a strong castle, that bulls seek to conquer and then use it as a defend against bears (and vice versa). Now that the pair has broke below 75, bears (aka sellers) may use it to defend against bulls. (just my thinking. I hope I am correct, as I have shorted AUDJPY....)


Below are the explanation for my trades in previous post (as I was busy this morning). My own perspective. I hope I am right!!

AUDUSD short. The pair broke below rising line and below 0.7095 (7th Oct low), creating a lower low on a 4hr TF. (RBA possible rate cuts, and souring trade relationship with China)
GBPUSD short. The pair has (technical terms) broke 1 pip below 1.2862 (14th Oct low), creating a lower low on a 4hr TF. (Stalled BREXIT, increased COVID + lockdown, Moody's downgrade)
NZDUSD short. The pair's rally from 24th Sep looks like a rising channel, a possible bearish flag. (PM Jacinda landslide win, might just gave the RBNZ the guts to go ahead with negative rates, so as to curb NZD rise.)

TRADE UPDATE:
AUDJPY [email protected], still active but in red
AUDUSD [email protected], still active but in red
GBPUSD [email protected], still active but in red
new GBPUSD [email protected]
NZDUSD [email protected], still active but in red

The Majors and Yen pairs rally during London session, on the back of BREXIT news.
I am still holding on to my own view as stated in the Currency Pairs summary (post #255)

Asia rally due on the back of improved China GDP. (But AUD did not rally)
Europe mildly in red, perhaps due to worsening COVID, and BREXIT to-and-fro situations which made GBPUSD rally 100 pips from Daily opening.
US now opens mildly in red.
Tomorrow will see AUD monetary policy minutes, although nothing to anticipate.

Last week, my trades for EURCHF long and USDCHF long did not work out, and was lucky to escape with much lesser losses.
Will not re-start the trades as the technicals did not favour.

TRADE UPDATE:
AUDJPY [email protected], still active at +30 pips, SL to BE and closing half
AUDUSD [email protected], still active at +35 pips, SL to BE and closing half
GBPUSD [email protected], still active at +50 pips, SL to BE and closing half
GBPUSD [email protected], still active at loss -30 pips
NZDUSD [email protected], still active at +20 pips, SL to BE and closing half

US session stocks continue turn red, Dow -1.4%, S&P -1.6%, Nas -1.6%.
Reason being that hopes of early COVID Stimulus fades, and may even drag to New Year, as political parties seeks edge over each other.
Later this Tues will see RBA minutes, nothing else, will just reinforce the possibility of Nov rate cuts.

TRADE UPDATE:
AUDJPY [email protected], closing remainder half for +45 pips
AUDUSD [email protected], closing remainder half for +50 pips
GBPUSD [email protected], closing remainder half for +50 pips
GBPUSD [email protected], closing for loss -30 pips
NZDUSD [email protected], closing remainder half for +30 pips

Closing all before Asia opens. DJIA Futures opens positive.
There is nothing going wrong for Asia. China and its RMB is now seen as safe haven and its bonds with good interest, may see Asia markets up and pulling up Majors.
Further more, the positions stated above had all reached a support and may see a bounce.
Will see what happens after Asia fully opens.