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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #8,341
  • Oct 9, 2020 11:53am Oct 9, 2020 11:53am
I think this week was quite tricky on FX. The levels on GU 1.30 / EU 1.18 and AU 0.72 and gold $1900 all looked like decent longer term plays but the market had other plans. Will have to see how the higher TF trends look over the weekend.

Here was a nice PA intraday setup on Dow Jones (US30) and Nasdaq from earlier.

By the way, these US indices are a lot smoother to trade on the lower timeframes than FX and I would strongly recommend them if people are looking for something a bit different to the daily grind on FX.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,342
  • Oct 9, 2020 11:55am Oct 9, 2020 11:55am
Quoting C-12
I think this week was quite tricky on FX. The levels on GU 1.30 / EU 1.18 and AU 0.72 and gold $1900 all looked like decent longer term plays but the market had other plans. Will have to see how the higher TF trends look over the weekend. Here was a nice PA intraday setup on Dow Jones (US30) from earlier. {image}
yea, it's done. The USD bears are back in town.
  • #8,343
  • Oct 9, 2020 12:02pm Oct 9, 2020 12:02pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} yea, it's done. The USD bears are back in town.
I agree, it's going to be a tough task to look for sells on major pairs next week, even with the retracement areas above. GU on D1 looks a lot like Nasdaq so my 1.31 is probably out the window.
  • #8,344
  • Oct 9, 2020 12:07pm Oct 9, 2020 12:07pm
AUDUSD, it turned bullish on daily chart after breaking key R @ 0.72. I'll be looking for a long trade if we get a retracement to 0.72.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,345
  • Oct 9, 2020 12:15pm Oct 9, 2020 12:15pm
Looks like a plan, I was kicking myself earlier for missing 0.71 and the 50% as that looked like a decent level in hindsight.
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  • #8,346
  • Oct 9, 2020 1:50pm Oct 9, 2020 1:50pm
USDJPY, the abc correction probably completed at 106, going to 104
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4 109.png Size: 38 KB
  • #8,347
  • Oct 9, 2020 2:45pm Oct 9, 2020 2:45pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD, the weekly close will be bullish. It looks like a W pattern. It's no longer a short on daily or weekly chart. {image}
GBPUSD, went long on H4 close above 1.30.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,348
  • Oct 11, 2020 8:36am Oct 11, 2020 8:36am
GBPUSD, daily chart, this is how I identify the trend using two lines (TL and a S/R). I consider the daily trend bullish as long as it remains above 1.2850-1.29
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,349
  • Oct 11, 2020 9:01am Oct 11, 2020 9:01am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Bones, I'd wait to see what Coreg thinks, because he knows way more than me and he's really spot on with his wave count. But for now, I'm entertaining two scenarios: one is a WXY from the low, meaning we're in X wave as an abc zigzag that can go lower, but eventually will take out the high as Y. The other count (red) is very bearish, taking out 1.15. atm I'd prefer the first count. {image}
GU, interesting to see how this wave count performed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,350
  • Oct 11, 2020 9:02am Oct 11, 2020 9:02am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I posted this COT chart 3 weeks ago saying based on my observation "GBPUSD speculative positioning may act as a contrarian indicator". At the time, the chart did not look bearish at all. Here we are 3 weeks later and GU has dropped 700 pips after topping. {image} {image}
GU, COT data, also this pattern keeps repeating itself.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,351
  • Oct 11, 2020 8:03pm Oct 11, 2020 8:03pm
USDCHF, short setup
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  • #8,352
  • Oct 11, 2020 8:13pm Oct 11, 2020 8:13pm
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, out of the short position. I don't have any directional bias atm. I will be looking at these levels for a possible short or long setup {image}
EURUSD, short trade. I am looking to switch to long if we get a retracement. Levels for short and long setup on the chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1 10 1.png Size: 45 KB
  • #8,353
  • Oct 11, 2020 8:22pm Oct 11, 2020 8:22pm
Quoting shahab8b
USDJPY, the abc correction probably completed at 106, going to 104 {image}
USDJPY, short trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4 1011.png Size: 40 KB
  • #8,354
  • Oct 12, 2020 6:04am Oct 12, 2020 6:04am
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, out of the short position. I don't have any directional bias atm. I will be looking at these levels for a possible short or long setup {image}
EURUSD, short trade update. Looking to go long next
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1 10412.png Size: 43 KB
  • #8,355
  • Oct 12, 2020 6:45am Oct 12, 2020 6:45am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD, short trade update. Looking to go long next {image}
Waiting for same thing
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  • #8,356
  • Oct 12, 2020 6:56am Oct 12, 2020 6:56am
Quoting mizi123
{quote} Waiting for same thing {image}
like the rest of the world, that why i think it will fly up before.
  • #8,357
  • Oct 12, 2020 7:02am Oct 12, 2020 7:02am
Quoting gatenio
{quote} like the rest of the world, that why i think it will fly up before.
if you think that way, split your risk on 2 entries, one here, the other at your ideal level.
  • #8,358
  • Oct 12, 2020 7:05am Oct 12, 2020 7:05am
Quoting shahab8b
USDJPY, the abc correction probably completed at 106, going to 104 {image}
USDJPY, short trade update, moved sl to b/e
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4 10121.png Size: 40 KB
  • #8,359
  • Oct 12, 2020 7:10am Oct 12, 2020 7:10am
GU also show's sighn of reaction on retesting the H&SH neckline!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,360
  • Oct 12, 2020 7:30am Oct 12, 2020 7:30am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} if you think that way, split your risk on 2 entries, one here, the other at your ideal level.
thanks for the advice prince shahab8b, i did scalp some before the S on 4h chart, but i keep my pending long down there.
EU very difficult to trade last weeks, so slow, low ADR, only tweets moves the market.. as a scalper i cant stand it.
my style is "hit and run", I WISH to trade like you do but it not suitable for my character

but, i learn from your chars a lot!
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