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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #6,621
  • Mar 6, 2020 11:11am Mar 6, 2020 11:11am
Quoting Almo2312
Imho next week weekly looks we will go above 1.31
I've no idea whatsoever of what it can do next week: what we know now is that the weekly trend downside is interrupted. The monthly one is still in place. Let's see if we will start a weekly balance (as normal) or if we will see a very rare V shaped market (skipping the weekly balance)
In any case I'm a day trader so I'll try to take this market a piece at a time.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,622
  • Mar 6, 2020 11:31am Mar 6, 2020 11:31am
Quoting Lock
As a more modest correction, if we got acceptation below 3018, I found 2992 as a possible target, because it is the low of preUS C period and it is exactly at preUS open (weak money buying there)
And here we are at 2992: again, the edge given by market generated information
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,623
  • Mar 6, 2020 11:33am Mar 6, 2020 11:33am
Now this post start to become more interesting... In any case I'm off. See you next week. Have a nice trading.

Quoting Lock
Now current situation is very uncertain as we got conflicting info: anyhow those who bought this morning were weak money (as they left 3 back to back poor lows 2940-29485 and 2961). So in case of serious liquidation market will take no prisoners there.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,624
  • Mar 8, 2020 5:43am Mar 8, 2020 5:43am
Quoting Lock
Now this post start to become more interesting... In any case I'm off. See you next week. Have a nice trading. {quote}
Well, I've been lucky as I closed everything just before the rotation upside: note the current pit poor high 3052. Also consider the previous 30545 Sydney poor high just a couple of pips above it. I definitely doubt they both could resist.
Anyhow Pit session left downside huge anomalies (I count 4 anomalies in the pit session itself): so take this into consideration even if you see price going higher.

For further considerations wait for next post.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,625
  • Mar 9, 2020 3:03am Mar 9, 2020 3:03am
3194 GB January close AND IT'S EQUAL to 2019 GB close: major ref here. Monitor for acceptation or rejection above it.
MONTHLY one time framing higher interrupted as it took out last month high 2150! Monthly balance expected.
Weekly trend could reverse. Daily trend clearly upside.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,626
  • Mar 19, 2020 5:14am Mar 19, 2020 5:14am
This corner's been very quiet recently. Especially after the last post of March 9th ending with "daily trend clearly upside".

Are you still here?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,627
  • Apr 15, 2020 10:57am Apr 15, 2020 10:57am
Quoting Tacitus
This corner's been very quiet recently. Especially after the last post of March 9th ending with "daily trend clearly upside". Are you still here? {image}
Can be hard to keep something going with not much imput from other traders...
Don't Leave Money on the Table
  • #6,628
  • Oct 12, 2020 1:13am Oct 12, 2020 1:13am
Quoting Tacitus
This corner's been very quiet recently. Especially after the last post of March 9th ending with "daily trend clearly upside". Are you still here? {image}
Hi Tacitus, thank you for your consideration.

In my last post I put a picture of multiple timeframes, from bigger to smallest: more importantly I underlined what I consider crucial. I wrote:
Quoting Lock
3194 GB January close AND IT'S EQUAL to 2019 GB close: major ref here. Monitor for acceptation or rejection above it. MONTHLY one time framing higher interrupted as it took out last month high 2150! Monthly balance expected. Weekly trend could reverse. Daily trend clearly upside.


Price went above 3194, a fundamental level, and was clearly rejected above it (I managed to reach only 3200)
Monthly one time framing higher (monthly trend upside) as underlined was already interrupted.
And those were the main information we got on the 9th of March.

So at that moment in time, on a major scale we could expect monthly balance and then a new trend upside or downside. Weekly and daily were not underlined in my post as I considered them less important.
Consider also that I'm a day trader and not an investor so the evaluation of the market on major timeframes is for me only a base upon which I could evaluate better odds for my daily positions. If I saw that any major trend is upside and then I saw an opportunity downside, I'm short, no matter what. Maybe with more caution, always prepared to jump off, but I'm short.


In any case I didn't trade cable from exactly that post, not because of any market provided information, but because I clearly saw and expected a very emotional environment in the following weeks/months produced by the notorious exogenous event unfolding: I do not like emotional markets and I do not trade them. That's all.

Kind regards,
Lock
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,629
  • Oct 12, 2020 1:22am Oct 12, 2020 1:22am
And now note that we are exactly at the same levels of the 9th of March!

In one of my last post I wrote that generally a market goes from trend to balance and then to trend again. A V shaped marked is generally uncommon and more importantly, if it happens to be as such, it is generally ruled by emotional money. And that's exactly our situation here.

Market broke in March, went into balance in April, tested April low, failed below it and as normal went in the opposite direction with a monthly one timeframing higher action that lasted for 3 months.

Then it stops again in September (when it went below August low) and here we are again in monthly balance, at the same levels we were at march.
Emotional money generally means weak money. Difficult and dangerous markets to trade and generally not lasting levels.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,630
  • Oct 12, 2020 1:45am Oct 12, 2020 1:45am
Quoting Lock
And now note that we are exactly at the same levels of the 9th of March! In one of my last post I wrote that generally a market goes from trend to balance and then to trend again. A V shaped marked is generally uncommon and more importantly, if it happens to be as such, it is generally ruled by emotional money. And that's exactly our situation here. Market broke in March, went into balance in April, tested April low, failed below it and as normal went in the opposite direction with a monthly one timeframing higher action that lasted for 3 months....
Great was missing your analysis so much
  • #6,631
  • Oct 12, 2020 1:48am Oct 12, 2020 1:48am
Recap for today.
We are in a monthly balance. A weekly and daily trend upside.

GB will probably open with a new gap upside from Friday GB high 2973
If this new possible gap will not be completely retraced, odds will be in favor for continuation upside.
If completely retraced we could see a reversal or balance.
In case of continuation note that rom 3056 to 3143 we have a Pit gap downside made during 09-08
Take note of it at Pit open (if around such levels it could try to fill it.)
Also we have ex major pocs at 3114 and 3134: those could attract price.

PS: I'm clearly aware of the substantial amount of anomalies and weaknesses left downside like preUS PL 2899 and Pit PL 2860: if we fail to fill the old pit gap downside or above 31745 we could see them wiped.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,632
  • Oct 12, 2020 1:49am Oct 12, 2020 1:49am
Quoting haathmilao
{quote} Great was missing your analysis so much
Thank you haathmilao. I appreciated it.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,633
  • Oct 12, 2020 2:07am Oct 12, 2020 2:07am
Note that 1.3000 is the inside week balance high during September: it's our major ref downside during GB session. We want acceptation above it for any meaningful continuation upside. If not, watch out for correction to the opposite side of that weekly balance range (2821).
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,634
  • Oct 12, 2020 2:24am Oct 12, 2020 2:24am
Quoting Lock
Note that 1.3000 is the inside week balance high during September: it's our major ref downside during GB session. We want acceptation above it for any meaningful continuation upside. If not, watch out for correction to the opposite side of that weekly balance range (2821).
and btw note that last GB close (Friday) is only a couple of pips above it (at 30025): we want to stay above it too for any serious continuation upside. IF not..
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,635
  • Oct 12, 2020 4:07am Oct 12, 2020 4:07am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Thank you haathmilao. I appreciated it.
Yes, your insight is highly appreciated and valued Keep up the good work Sir!
  • #6,636
  • Oct 12, 2020 8:15am Oct 12, 2020 8:15am
Quoting Lock
Note that 1.3000 is the inside week balance high during September: it's our major ref downside during GB session. We want acceptation above it for any meaningful continuation upside. If not, watch out for correction to the opposite side of that weekly balance range (2821).
Note that GB did not even manage to test 3000 nor the slightly above GB close of last week.

Quoting Pixie666
{quote} Yes, your insight is highly appreciated and valued Keep up the good work Sir!
Thank you very much indeed Pixie.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,637
  • Oct 12, 2020 8:27am Oct 12, 2020 8:27am
Note that for the PIT US sessions the September inside week has different values:
PIT inside week high (SEPT) 1.30075
PIT inside week low(SEPT) 1.2841

So we need acceptation above 30075 (inside pit week high) and above Friday pit session close 3049 in order to see continuation upside.
If not, the natural direction should be the opposite side of that balance, again: 2841

In any case we are in a US bank holiday and Pit session could open inside Friday pit session range: balance is expected at least initially.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,638
  • Oct 12, 2020 9:18am Oct 12, 2020 9:18am
Quoting Lock
Note that for the PIT US sessions the September inside week has different values: PIT inside week high (SEPT) 1.30075 PIT inside week low(SEPT) 1.2841 So we need acceptation above 30075 (inside pit week high) and above Friday pit session close 3049 in order to see continuation upside. If not, the natural direction should be the opposite side of that balance, again: 2841 In any case we are in a US bank holiday and Pit session could open inside Friday pit session range: balance is expected at least initially.
Market seems cool and calm today
  • #6,639
  • Oct 15, 2020 12:49am Oct 15, 2020 12:49am
3068 is a weakness. Yesterday Pit session tagged exactly 30075 (and its entire range remained above it)
We could see the correction of the double gaps here and then 3068, or 3068 and then the correction of the multiple double gaps (GB and PIT)

In any case carry forward the fact that GB yesterday couldn't solve preUS PL 2899 nor Pit PL 2860
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #6,640
  • Oct 15, 2020 5:24am Oct 15, 2020 5:24am
Quoting Lock
3068 is a weakness. Yesterday Pit session tagged exactly 30075 (and its entire range remained above it) We could see the correction of the double gaps here and then 3068, or 3068 and then the correction of the multiple double gaps (GB and PIT) In any case carry forward the fact that GB yesterday couldn't solve preUS PL 2899 nor Pit PL 2860
Thats what I was wondering also yesterday Pre US Pit, also if you can elaborate if today Pre US pit manages to go 2860, and stays below what are we looking for next
means for today and tomorrow after opening pit sessions ?

Thank you
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