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How to optimize a Trading system So That win % or RR increase

  • #81
  • Oct 11, 2020 9:47am Oct 11, 2020 9:47am
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} Here it is. {file}
Can we have ATR Based Stop, Target, Trailing stop on-off options? As well as trade partial close at certain ATR value.
let's say the Current ATR is 50, we want to close half 50 pips at 1 ATR hit and we want to close another half at 2 ATR hit I mean when 100 pips hit.
we determine our tp at 4 ATR and we will run the trade. we give the trailing stop value at 1.5 ATR value.
we can manually determine ATR value in EA.

Once one ATR hit we close half trade with a profit, price come back but don't hit stop, If we get another signal we can open other trade. these options on-off.
At max, we can have 2 positions open.

Another Trade entry option we can add that is buying the pullback up-trending market and selling the pullback at the down-trending market. That is a little bit complex. In manual trading, I use that and with another Indicator confirmations. If you want I can share that with you but it may be a little hard to code. But by adding this our present EA will be a Robust trading system.
Thanks and I really appreciate your hard work and your coding skills. So far you have done excellent.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #82
  • Oct 11, 2020 11:04am Oct 11, 2020 11:04am
Quoting hasib
somehow we have to remove this big DD. Please if you have any suggestions let us know. {image}
Well done mate!


Some strategies its just better to not trade for the long periods of times it has not proven to be profitable, which on the above graph seems is most of the time, unfortunately.

But If not enough patterns are available in history to determine when is the best time to trade this trend strategy, a solution is to complement it with a custom range trading strategy, one optimized with this specific trend strategy in mind so their DDs never combine.

P.S
Is this for the last 10 years with your best settings so far ? It would give us a better picture to have the date range and as much info as possible on settings used.. At least for the last minimum 7 years with the best settings you have used up to now would be helpful to have.



Some strategies its just better to not trade for the long periods of times it has not proven to be profitable, which on the above graph seems is most of the time, unfortunately.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #83
  • Oct 11, 2020 12:53pm Oct 11, 2020 12:53pm
Quoting mtako
{quote} Well done mate! Some strategies its just better to not trade for the long periods of times it has not proven to be profitable, which on the above graph seems is most of the time, unfortunately. But If not enough patterns are available in history to determine when is the best time to trade this trend strategy, a solution is to complement it with a custom range trading strategy, one optimized with this specific trend strategy in mind so their DDs never combine. P.S Is this for the last 10 years with your best settings so far? It would give...
Brother, you draw this conclusion but I draw different conclusions, I think this system performed much better than my expectations. I have tried a different setup and different values with this ea all day long, I have learned so many things with this simple ea.
I strongly think this system has an edge, especially in manual trading. I found a better equity carve than above with this ea.
I am currently thinking of adding my pullback entry with the trend directions, That will maximize the profit.
Also if we add ATR-based STOP and TP this ea will perform more efficiently. First I was testing that the entry has an edge or not, I found this entry has an edge, we can use ATR-based STop and TP we also can use the Donchian Channel Channel-based Stop or TP both will improve this system in a better way. since my pullback entry has nice win rate ultimately I believe we can hit 55% win rate overall.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #84
  • Oct 11, 2020 3:47pm Oct 11, 2020 3:47pm
Quoting hasib
{quote} Brother, you draw this conclusion but I draw different conclusions, I think this system performed much better than my expectations.

I didn't draw any conclusions, I'm referring to your own backtesting, where 2/3 of it there is no growth. I wasn't being negative as you seem to have assumed. That's precisely why I asked for more precise reports also.

If you reread my post attentively I think you will find good tips, tips I wished I had received earlier when developing such strategies.

I think you're on the right track, just trying to help...
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #85
  • Oct 12, 2020 3:27am Oct 12, 2020 3:27am
Quoting mtako
{quote} I didn't draw any conclusions, I'm referring to your own backtesting, where 2/3 of it there is no growth. I wasn't being negative as you seem to have assumed. That's precisely why I asked for more precise reports also. If you reread my post attentively I think you will find good tips, tips I wished I had received earlier when developing such strategies. I think you're on the right track, just trying to help...
I will post the Last 10 years backtest result, with the best setting I have found in 1 Year of testing. Let's see can we use this strategy for further development. If we found a good result we will use it. Yes, you are right if we stop the EA when the market is slow we could make much better results. adopt a slow market strategy is a good idea.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #86
  • Oct 12, 2020 3:38am Oct 12, 2020 3:38am
After watching 10 years of data backtest with my best setting so far I have found. The result is not Good. This BB system is just west of time this kind of BB system is good for a youtube video or trading blog but in the real market this system not good at all.

Just take moving average cross over in the direction of 200 ema performed much better in the real market.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #87
  • Oct 12, 2020 5:18am Oct 12, 2020 5:18am
Quoting hasib
After watching 10 years of data backtest with my best setting so far I have found. The result is not Good. This BB system is just west of time this kind of BB system is good for a youtube video or trading blog but in the real market this system not good at all. Just take moving average cross over in the direction of 200 ema performed much better in the real market.
I already mentioned a bit in a previous posts why it's difficult to win long term with the same fixed rules.

1. Fixed rules in the context of dynamic non-static environment. The market changes while the system stays the same. There is no adaptation.

2. Additional edge degradation due to unknown friction cost. At some point the edge will drop below zero while at the same time the friction costs will increase. This is the point of failure where the strategy will enter into deep drawdown.

I'm trying to tell many people but they don't want to listen. Everywhere I look traders make the same mistakes over and over and over.
This is because most traders focus on the wrong things. Listen guys, throw your technical analysis books in the garbage bin because they are useless! Get some real science books and learn the real reasons why you fail.
  • #88
  • Oct 12, 2020 5:58am Oct 12, 2020 5:58am
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} I already mentioned a bit in a previous posts why it's difficult to win long term with the same fixed rules. 1. Fixed rules in the context of dynamic non-static environment. The market changes while the system stays the same. There is no adaptation. 2. Additional edge degradation due to unknown friction cost. At some point the edge will drop below zero while at the same time the friction costs will increase. This is the point of failure where the strategy will enter into deep drawdown. I'm trying to tell many people but they don't want to...
I guess we have very different indicators. But I agree with most of what you are saying, even if I do think you have judged this thread wrong. You have to start somewhere, no ?

Most indicators are dynamic, they are just an interpretation of price. In the scope of trading, they have parameters that can change in order to adapt to the changes in the market. But fact is, at a given moment, the price reacts in a certain way, and for that moment, a certain combination of parameters just work, it is a fact that can be verified by anyone.

The real work is adapting it in time, that, thankfully now with our computer power, is quite easy if you know what you're doing.

P.S No need to repeat yourself mate, we heard you the first time and appreciate your thoughts.

P.P.S so we threw our technical analysis books in the bin as you suggested. Patiently waiting for your concrete suggestions.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #89
  • Oct 12, 2020 7:10am Oct 12, 2020 7:10am
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} I already mentioned a bit in a previous posts why it's difficult to win long term with the same fixed rules. 1. Fixed rules in the context of dynamic non-static environment. The market changes while the system stays the same. There is no adaptation. 2. Additional edge degradation due to unknown friction cost. At some point the edge will drop below zero while at the same time the friction costs will increase. This is the point of failure where the strategy will enter into deep drawdown. I'm trying to tell many people but they don't want to...
Recently I have realized that before we want to become an fx trader we have to learn MQL programming better. website, youtube, and forums are full of Mambo Jambo. Before you understand those are mambo Jambo you will west your 10 years of trading career time just hoping, westing time and money. After all of that, you will quit trading. we will see lots of beautiful indicators that are not worked at in real testing. Never take a trading course if the Course seller could not provide Statistical edge and result, no matter how many years he or she is trading.

Mr.James I am waiting for your book recommendations.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #90
  • Oct 12, 2020 8:26am Oct 12, 2020 8:26am
I found a set up with our BB EA that performs much better in the last 10 years, nice gain. I want to further develop this idea. DD and RDD are less than 10. It takes advantage of the large market move too. this idea works very well, Look at the performance picture.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #91
  • Oct 12, 2020 8:36am Oct 12, 2020 8:36am
If you don't know mql you can hire a coder. It is not so expensive. But the main problem here that 90% of traders don't understand what instruments we are using. As an example is to use rsi and macd on one chart. You have to learn what indicators are doing, how they are calculated and what they are showing. Second problem is that you think that strategy with >50% good entries is a winning one. This is not true. Strategy with >50% good exits is a winning one. You can have 95% good entry strategy and lose. There are no winning strategy with good entry and simple exit rules. Or we will be a millionaires already. You have to develop dynamic stop losses, averaging, hedging and at least dynamic lot sizes because every pair has its own cost per lot. So this is a little bit complicated task and for sure can't be made fast.

So my advice is to start investigating/thinking about good exits. As an example you can try use trend indicators for entry and oscillators for exits (or for moving SL in profit). For example moving averages crosses and rsi/stoch/macd for exit.

Also take a look at the levels/pivots/daily high/low - they are extremely powerful.
Observer effect
  • #92
  • Oct 12, 2020 12:20pm Oct 12, 2020 12:20pm
can you suggest some systematic exit strategy with little bit of explanations that work for you very well.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #93
  • Oct 12, 2020 1:10pm Oct 12, 2020 1:10pm
As a manual trader, I use my personal judgment to close trade earlier before tp and SL hit. some times that judgment works very well sometimes not. Here is an example of my today's GJ trade. I close Half of the trade but now the market is moving towards my directions.
I think a systematic exit strategy has some advantages as well as disadvantages too. if we could have a good systematic exit strategy that will make us more like a robot. and we could make more systematic decisions.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #94
  • Oct 12, 2020 5:50pm Oct 12, 2020 5:50pm
I have an EA I am trying to figure out where I am coding wrong for the maximum open positions. It is written in the code
"extern int
MaxOpenTrade = 1;"

(see attached) but when it runs, it opens two separate (different direction; both long and short) trades at the same time. And it wont allow the TP/SL to be less than 10 (I want it less to skim spread). Any suggestions to help me correct this?
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MAX.mq4   3 KB | 325 downloads
  • #95
  • Oct 12, 2020 6:33pm Oct 12, 2020 6:33pm
Quoting hasib
I found a set up with our BB EA that performs much better in the last 10 years, nice gain. I want to further develop this idea. DD and RDD are less than 10. It takes advantage of the large market move too. this idea works very well, Look at the performance picture. {image} {image}
Not good enough.

After transaction cost it will be worse.

It spends the last 1200 trades breaking even.

When I research a system. The profit factor gotta be atleast 1.5 for me to consider trading it.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #96
  • Oct 13, 2020 3:17am Oct 13, 2020 3:17am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Not good enough. After transaction cost it will be worse. It spends the last 1200 trades breaking even. When I research a system. The profit factor gotta be atleast 1.5 for me to consider trading it.
The Profit Factor alone is not so important. The most important thing for any strategy is the absolute size of the edge in relation to the friction cost.

You can have very robust strategy even with profit factor 1.1 if the expectancy per trade is multiple times the friction cost.
You can also have a strategy with very high profit factor like 3+ and it is still a bad strategy. For example most martingale and grid systems tend to have very high Profit Factor until they crash. We all know these strategies are garbage in the long run but short term they can look very good and smooth.
  • #97
  • Oct 13, 2020 5:35am Oct 13, 2020 5:35am
some times algo will not show edge in the system, but in manual trading, you will find a good edge. some successful traders story clearly describes it. we may call it luck we may call it his own skills, we may call it Intuition. whatever we call it, it is possible.
I know Algo traders will not like my opinion, they will criticize me.

what should be a logical reason for their success that I don't know, are they know the logic who knows!
It is also true that traders can get lucky for 1 to 2 years after that period they started losing their money again and again. with the same setup.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #98
  • Oct 14, 2020 2:22pm Oct 14, 2020 2:22pm
Super trend Trading strategy that is shared in FF. I am testing it now. It is a trend trading strategy. if anyone took the last 26 trade with this strategy with 80 pips take profit and just follow Super trend SL. The result will be 13 trade lose and 13 trade wins. since we have lost more in some trade and we have a fixed tp 80. we would have lost money with this current indicator setup. if we can eliminate 5 losing trading from 26 trade we can make money with this system. I have tested many trading strategies I found the win rate is not that high in the long run. Because most of the trading strategies are momentum or trend trading strategy. mean reversion trading strategy very little around the websites. because the Minreversion strategy becomes unprofitable when the trend started.
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MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #99
  • Oct 14, 2020 2:46pm Oct 14, 2020 2:46pm
Most of the trading strategy that we are playing with has no real edge in long run. In the short run, we will see that strategy is winning 55 to 65% but in the long run win rate fall below 30%. people lose money following strategy and people quit that strategy.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #100
  • Edited 5:58pm Oct 14, 2020 2:50pm | Edited 5:58pm
Quoting hasib
Most of the trading strategy that we are playing with has no real edge in long run. In the short run, we will see that strategy is winning 55 to 65% but in the long run win rate fall below 30%. people lose money following strategy and people quit that strategy.
You really must stop focusing on win rates %. If I lose 1 pip 99 times and win 1000 pips once, I have 1% win rate and I would be more successful than 95% of traders. As of right now My win rate is around 35% for 2020 but I win more that I lose. Focus on money mangement, that is why most traders fail.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
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