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DOS. Daily Open Strategy. Easy To Trade, Simple To Win (EA..soon)

  • #61
  • Oct 9, 2020 2:03am Oct 9, 2020 2:03am
This is why I wrote post #13 (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/13204074#post13204074).
  • #62
  • Oct 9, 2020 3:04am Oct 9, 2020 3:04am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} That's a great question, to look even deeper, what is the 110 pips based on NOW? Just a random number that seems to work occasionally on some pairs, but will never give a signal on some pairs? Because as pointed out, volatility will affect the signals: therefore, the indicator should be based on that, usually expressed as ADR So the signal number needs to be a ratio of the ADR, maybe 1.5 times, maybe 2 times, or larger? Be great if that calculation could be included in the indicator posted, any chance of that? Seems you have done some testing,...
totally agree with this... like if the ADR for the last 20 days is 130.. we can look for a daily candle which is more 130+ or more..
PATIENCE AND DISCIPLINE!
  • #63
  • Oct 9, 2020 3:10am Oct 9, 2020 3:10am
im not a coder, thats why i cant help you with the backtesting of this system, id like to help. im interested as well on this system. ill try some manual backtesting..
PATIENCE AND DISCIPLINE!
  • #64
  • Oct 9, 2020 3:46am Oct 9, 2020 3:46am
Has to be a way to read the price action on GOLD, now that makes great pips (if you got it right)



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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #65
  • Edited 5:48am Oct 9, 2020 3:57am | Edited 5:48am
Quickly coded this for myself. Basic concept is nice and simple. Got potential indeed.


My 2 cents:

Leave fixed values aside (Input, TP and a possible SL) and use volatility based versions of daily (or any other desired TF) ranges.

Next to that I encountered mentionable differences when using variable spread and slippage - which makes sense when making up your mind about it. You are always entering during the early asian session offering extreme low liquidity which will lead to partly heavy jumps in entry prices from time to time. This problem even stacks when utilizing pairs aside from the big majors like Fiber or Cable.

Never, really never rely on the default MT4 backtesting tool no matter what excuse you are up to.

Just my honest advise.

PS: This is a EURUSD Daily quicklook from 2010-now based on true tickdata including slippage and variable spread (Dukascopy data)
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  • #66
  • Oct 9, 2020 5:21am Oct 9, 2020 5:21am
A good way around the low liquidity/high spread issue at Asian open might be to enter the trade 5 mins before close of the daily... everything should be lined up by then if there is a trade/no trade...

Apologise if already been suggested.

Betty
  • #67
  • Oct 9, 2020 5:55am Oct 9, 2020 5:55am
This seems to have a lot of potential. I subscribed to this thread.
I am not a coder, so I can't really help, but I am really interested in the progress. Also, the thread starter seems to be a nice person, which is also a plus.
  • #68
  • Oct 9, 2020 5:56am Oct 9, 2020 5:56am
Quoting Drolph
Quickly coded this for myself. Basic concept is nice and simple. Got potential indeed. My 2 cents: Leave fixed values aside (Input, TP and a possible SL) and use volatility based versions of daily (or any other desired TF) ranges. Next to that I encountered mentionable differences when using variable spread and slippage - which makes sense when making up your mind about it. You are always entering during the early asian session offering extreme low liquidity which will lead to partly heavy jumps in entry prices from time to time. This problem even...
Perfect Drolph: Would you share your EA? I wolud like to backtest during weekend.
Best regards,
REnko
  • #69
  • Oct 9, 2020 5:59am Oct 9, 2020 5:59am
Quoting mankindeg
This seems to have a lot of potential. I subscribed to this thread. I am not a coder, so I can't really help, but I am really interested in the progress. Also, the thread starter seems to be a nice person, which is also a plus.
I'm blushing but not sure I am that nice
  • #70
  • Oct 9, 2020 6:02am Oct 9, 2020 6:02am
Quoting Drolph
Quickly coded this for myself. Basic concept is nice and simple. Got potential indeed. My 2 cents: Leave fixed values aside (Input, TP and a possible SL) and use volatility based versions of daily (or any other desired TF) ranges. Next to that I encountered mentionable differences when using variable spread and slippage - which makes sense when making up your mind about it. You are always entering during the early asian session offering extreme low liquidity which will lead to partly heavy jumps in entry prices from time to time. This problem even...
What is the size of the stop loss for this backtest?
  • #71
  • Oct 9, 2020 6:02am Oct 9, 2020 6:02am
Take profit, sorry)))
  • #72
  • Oct 9, 2020 6:35am Oct 9, 2020 6:35am
Quoting renkotop
{quote} Perfect Drolph: Would you share your EA? I wolud like to backtest during weekend. Best regards, REnko
Dunno at the moment, sorry. To have a version ready for public use some more work is necessary like having an accessible user input and general code optimizations to speed up testings. Until now I was just curious about the potential, so i quickly build a small algo for myself.

Quoting iDentist
Take profit, sorry)))
Like I said, there is no fixed values here. It calculates the TP based on average range/movement values of the used pair for a given timeframe. The already discussed ADR or ATR does its job as first guess.
I also implemented a filter for the averaging part, since it gave me better results when only adding recovery trades selectively instead of daily without any other consideration. Because I am using this for my own trading systems with quite some success for years now. But yeah, this might even lead into a too complex direction already at this point. Again, was only fiddling around here.
  • #73
  • Oct 9, 2020 7:35am Oct 9, 2020 7:35am
The best thing about this idea is that you're making use of no indicators. But you'll need a rigorous process to make it a good strategy
  • #74
  • Oct 10, 2020 12:14am Oct 10, 2020 12:14am
Hi everyone,
If I got everything , can we code the conditions this way ?

double MaxSpread = 4.0; // in Pips
double Body_Size_1 = (NormalizeDouble(Close[1],Digits)-NormalizeDouble(Open[1],Digits))/Point; // Day TF
double _close_1 = (iClose(NULL,0,1));
double _open_1 = (iOpen(NULL,0,1));

// for Buy
if ( Body_Size_1 > 110 )
if ( _close_1 < _open_1 )
{ Buy ( Blah Blah)}
// for Sell
if ( Body_Size_1 > 110 )
if ( _close_1 > _open_1 )
{ Sell ( Blah Blah)}

Is post #1 logic correct?

Have a nice WE.
Tomcat98
  • #75
  • Edited 3:21am Oct 10, 2020 1:43am | Edited 3:21am
This strategy is so robust, sם that it is very easy to find good parameters to many pairs in different size of body.
I do still think the best for DOS is big Daily bars, but for those who look for more risk and more trades per week/month/year, this can be an alternative option.

Here is an example for EURUSD 1D bar
Minimal Body Size = 75
2010-current
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Same with Dollop (0.02 lot per 2K)
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  • #76
  • Oct 10, 2020 1:46am Oct 10, 2020 1:46am
Quoting Tomcat98
Hi everyone, If I got everything , can we code the conditions this way ? double MaxSpread = 4.0; // in Pips double Body_Size_1 = (NormalizeDouble(Close[1],Digits)-NormalizeDouble(Open[1],Digits))/Point; // Day TF double _close_1 = (iClose(NULL,0,1)); double _open_1 = (iOpen(NULL,0,1)); // for Buy if ( Body_Size_1 > 110 ) if ( _close_1 < _open_1 ) { Buy ( Blah Blah)} // for Sell if ( Body_Size_1 > 110 ) if ( _close_1 > _open_1 ) { Sell ( Blah Blah)} Is post #1 logic correct? Have a nice WE. Tomcat98
Correct for initial trades only.
  • #77
  • Oct 10, 2020 3:30am Oct 10, 2020 3:30am
Hi smilee89
My question is how are you able to follow so many pairs? Do you have a screen with all pairs on daily charts. I believe your strategy works but is it possible without an EA to manage all this trades?
  • #78
  • Oct 10, 2020 4:01am Oct 10, 2020 4:01am
Quoting kofix11
Hi smilee89 My question is how are you able to follow so many pairs? Do you have a screen with all pairs on daily charts. I believe your strategy works but is it possible without an EA to manage all this trades?
I do not trade manually for years.
All my trades are automated.
Once this strategy will work with an EA, I will just need to attach it into the charts, once per pair, with its relevant set of params.

For those who prefer trading manually, I would suggest to install body size indicator with sound and email alert.
  • #79
  • Oct 10, 2020 4:02am Oct 10, 2020 4:02am
Quoting smilee89
This strategy is so robust, sם that it is very easy to find good parameters to many pairs in different timeframes. I do still think the best for DOS is Daily bars, but for those who look for more risk and more trades per week/month/year, this can be an alternative option. Here is an example for EURUSD 1H bar Minimal Body Size = 75 2010-current {image} Same with Dollop (0.02 lot per 2K) {image}
I want to point out some problems which would stop me from using this.

Having a single pair the overall risk/reward remains too bad. In your example you will get around 70% gain in 10 years. Although I get even slightly better results it is still far from what I am using live with my own systems.

While the overall drawdown might be attractive for EURUSD here, you should not miss an important aspect. Even if it is not happening often, the cases where a recovery is necessary it might stay in drawdown for severall weeks or even months! At least for your approach of adding trades without increasing lotsize. This is not really visible in your backtest results and therefor easily be missed.

Having that you are running into the true problem now. Since you should aim for using several pairs in parallel to achieve a meaningful gain given the risk you take you are likely getting stuck in drawdowns on several pairs in parallel sooner or later. This in consequence leads to an overall too dangerous situation imho. To make this more visible. When does these recovery situations occur? In crazy markets showing heavy trends. And when THIS happens it is not restricted to single pairs.

This issue only improves using additional concepts of trade management to either shorten the time beeing in drawdown and/or reducing the drawdown values. Here I am trying to implement things using features of my own EA's. But this will leave the road of the concept presented in this thread.

Still something I wanted to bring up

PS: here is a portfolio using some enhanced features having more "problematic" pairs than EURUSD
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  • #80
  • Oct 10, 2020 4:13am Oct 10, 2020 4:13am
Quoting Drolph
{quote} I want to point out some problems which would stop me from using this. Having a single pair the overall risk/reward remains too bad. In your example you will get around 70% gain in 10 years. Although I get even slightly better results it is still far from what I am using live with my own systems. While the overall drawdown might be attractive for EURUSD here, you should not miss an important aspect. Even if it is not happening often, the cases where a recovery is necessary it might stay in drawdown for severall weeks or even months! At least...
I do know and aware of all aspects you well mentioned here.
All will be taken care in my advanced EA version, as to an option for increased lots, exposure limit, risk management etc..
But this is not to be discussed at this stage.
For now I focus on the strategy itself.
Bottom line: All other added management ideas will be implemented later.
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