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Rearden's Journal

  • #141
  • Sep 30, 2020 9:52pm Sep 30, 2020 9:52pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} The main reason I said it about both moves is our Bias indicator (but I am also keeping options fresh in my mind). The MACD might be declining, but it is still positive. We are in an up move so my thought is that this could be the place we catch a big push up.. if it happens. When I said it about price breaking down, we were in a down move and MACD declining. Even though MACD is above zero, it is declining and could go on an extended decline. I don't know what will happen, but I always try to keep both options in mind. Not in an attempt...
Hi G,

Thank you. Yes. Understood what you are saying.

Fibs... I dont use it.. I didnt think in the way you shared above... So I was wondering why this location for a continuation back up.... then ended up plotting fibs to see if there is any confluence etc. what you shared is simple and makes sense... MACD is declining but above Zero and we are in an up move. Understood the logic of down move as well. Thank you
  • #142
  • Oct 1, 2020 2:32am Oct 1, 2020 2:32am
The price went up to hit my TP
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  • #143
  • Oct 1, 2020 3:04pm Oct 1, 2020 3:04pm
02 Oct
No BIAS, Up move.

The price is at 1753 area..... 1753 was where I had the swing low for an entire month during the wide range period. its testing the area from below. The price attempted to break above but immediately closed back(So there is no change for the white line). The price has closed below S50 only for once since Monday. Now the price is between the 1753 area and the S50 . Since the price is above S50 and in an up move I will enter a long position once the spreads settles down.
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  • #144
  • Oct 1, 2020 5:28pm Oct 1, 2020 5:28pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi G, Thank you. Yes. Understood what you are saying. Fibs... I dont use it.. I didnt think in the way you shared above... So I was wondering why this location for a continuation back up.... then ended up plotting fibs to see if there is any confluence etc. what you shared is simple and makes sense... MACD is declining but above Zero and we are in an up move. Understood the logic of down move as well. Thank you
You can certainly study the movements to see if Fibs turn up anything, but make sure it takes a back seat to basic things.
Be bullish on you.
  • #145
  • Edited Oct 5, 2020 6:55am Oct 4, 2020 4:12pm | Edited Oct 5, 2020 6:55am
Weekly Summary 28 Sept to 02 OCT
=======================

Emotional: I was able to follow the rules regardless of the outcome and early losing trade. I dont find it difficult to execute trades now. And also, I dont second guess on entries.

Technical: Week before last, G had posted on being proactive than reactive on where the price will react and where the white line will move. i think i have to give more thought to that and check that on chart and the price reactions around such areas.

Also, I learned on the correlation of MACD with the move . I have to observe more scenarios and take note of what is happening in MACD and chart when it is declining in up move/rising in Down move etc.

Also, another thing to take note is the running of trades from where it is really small risk (near to white line or when it changes direction) vs breakout and also trying to run when risks are higher. I have to take note of both these scenarios.

? NO BIAS weeks are when we have to understand that the price doesn't commit to particular bias. This should reflect in the way we enter and also take profit in a trade. I have to learn on this.
  • #146
  • Oct 4, 2020 4:14pm Oct 4, 2020 4:14pm
05 OCT

No BIAS UP move

Price was below the S50 and Pivot and we are in up move. I entered one position straight away.

On Friday, price came down and closed below the Pivot and S50 after 4 days of going up and closing above. The PA on Thursday is similar to the one G has highlighted earlier to have deep retracement before further push up. I have noticed that this has happened a good number of times during the exercise. I will keep watch and take note on this.

? When I see this pattern is it better to wait for an Edge to middle kind of trade rather than taking an early trade only because there is a pivot/S50 there. They are far from white line anyway.
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  • #147
  • Oct 5, 2020 5:53am Oct 5, 2020 5:53am
Quoting Rearden
05 OCT No BIAS UP move Price was below the S50 and Pivot and we are in up move. I entered one position straight away. On Friday, price came down and closed below the Pivot and S50 after 4 days of going up and closing above. The PA on Thursday is similar to the one G has highlighted earlier to have deep retracement before further push up. I have noticed that this has happened a good number of times during the exercise. I will keep watch and take note on this. ? When I see this pattern is it better to wait for an Edge to middle kind of trade rather...
The price went to my target. The price came down to test the low of the swing to the left. On September 30 it came down test the high of the last down swing it broke to change the direction. As I move forward in the exercise I find that price often revisit important areas from it reacted earlier. I will observe and take note of this when timing my entries and also the placement of stop
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  • #148
  • Oct 5, 2020 3:30pm Oct 5, 2020 3:30pm
06 OCT

No Bias, Up move

The price broke the last swing high and held above. The white line goes to 1685. The location of both the pivot and S50 are far from the white line which means increased risk. But I placed a #2 and #3 trade as per the rules. The price has reached the 1.1800 BRN. If the price visits the area again and gets rejected, I am not sure if I have to wait for bigger retracement. The last swing retraced to 78% before it went up(But this was when price just closed above the last swing high NOT when the price has held above. Now, the price has held above . So is it better to wait for the price to reach around 1720 area before entering the trade(Considering its a NO BIAS week and also IF it rejects from 1.18 BRN a second time? I will see.
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  • #149
  • Oct 5, 2020 5:51pm Oct 5, 2020 5:51pm
Quoting Rearden
06 OCT No Bias, Up move The price broke the last swing high and held above. The white line goes to 1685. The location of both the pivot and S50 are far from the white line which means increased risk. But I placed a #2 and #3 trade as per the rules. The price has reached the 1.1800 BRN. If the price visits the area again and gets rejected, I am not sure if I have to wait for bigger retracement. The last swing retraced to 78% before it went up(But this was when price just closed above the last swing high NOT when the price has held above. Now, the...
swing is higher, check (where you have is fine, but there was actually a high and a break and hold hidden in there). Also, this summary sounds really detailed with fibs and BRNs... I encourage you to replace with up, down, higher, lower. simple, simple, simple first.
Be bullish on you.
  • #150
  • Oct 5, 2020 7:45pm Oct 5, 2020 7:45pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} swing is higher, check (where you have is fine, but there was actually a high and a break and hold hidden in there). Also, this summary sounds really detailed with fibs and BRNs... I encourage you to replace with up, down, higher, lower. simple, simple, simple first.
Hi G,

I hope I spotted it correctly now. Yes. Thank you for the reminder to keep it simple.
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  • #151
  • Oct 6, 2020 2:48pm Oct 6, 2020 2:48pm
07 OCT
No bias, UP move,

the price didn't close above the high of 05 OCT. After multiple tries of going up, it rejected and came down. I think this is no surprise as this is a no bias week. At the time of entry, the S50 and pivot was around the same area. But I hadn't updated my early morning entry yesterday and both got triggered. The price closed back below the S50 and pivot.

Today, price opened below the S50 and pivot . So i entered straight away. if the price hold below the 1719, I will exit. my TPs are where the price came down from.
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  • #152
  • Oct 6, 2020 2:59pm Oct 6, 2020 2:59pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi G, I hope I spotted it correctly now. Yes. Thank you for the reminder to keep it simple. {image}
It should be between the two. see photo for location on my thread.
Be bullish on you.
  • #153
  • Edited 5:55pm Oct 6, 2020 5:39pm | Edited 5:55pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} It should be between the two. see photo for location on my thread.
Hi G,

the last post I see in your journal is post 1299 where the white line is at 1684. I think I have figured it out now. The break happend on 01 OCT and the white line goes to the significant two bar pull back which happened prior to that at 1704.
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  • #154
  • Oct 6, 2020 6:11pm Oct 6, 2020 6:11pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi G, the last post I see in your journal is post 1299 where the white line is at 1684. I think I have figured it out now. The break happend on 01 OCT and the white line goes to the significant two bar pull back which happened prior to that at 1704. {image}
probably help if I put up an updated chart
Be bullish on you.
  • #155
  • Oct 7, 2020 2:34pm Oct 7, 2020 2:34pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} probably help if I put up an updated chart
Hi G. Noted that you have taken the entire range of the last upswing making it a channel. Thank you for sharing the chart.
  • #156
  • Oct 7, 2020 2:53pm Oct 7, 2020 2:53pm
08 OCT
=====
No BIAS UP Move

Price opened between the Pivot and S50. I have the positions already in place. So not entering anything new.

The price found buyers around the mini swing at 1720 area, made a slightly higher low, and closed back above the pivot. The last time price opened between pivot and S50 is on 02 OCT. The price came down and eventually went up. I will see if that repeats again.
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  • #157
  • Oct 8, 2020 2:32pm Oct 8, 2020 2:32pm
09 OCT

NO Bias, UP move

The price came down from the last lower high, tested the ystr low area and went higher and closed above the S50 and Pivot which is good because we are in n upmove. Since I have long positions already, I am not entering any new positions. Price has been ranging and made a slightly higher low ystr as well like the day before. I have brought down my target to the last swing high.

Emotional: I feel that the slow sideways movement makes it quite boring to just wait and see how the price moves. I am thinking, if this how I made reasons for entry when I was not following a set rules for entry.
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  • #158
  • Oct 8, 2020 11:01pm Oct 8, 2020 11:01pm
Quoting Rearden
09 OCT NO Bias, UP move The price came down from the last lower high, tested the ystr low area and went higher and closed above the S50 and Pivot which is good because we are in n upmove. Since I have long positions already, I am not entering any new positions. Price has been ranging and made a slightly higher low ystr as well like the day before. I have brought down my target to the last swing high. Emotional: I feel that the slow sideways movement makes it quite boring to just wait and see how the price moves. I am thinking, if this how I made...
The target is hit for the all the 3 positions.
It was a no bias Up move week with a larger range in play and then it was more of a smaller range(orange line) since 07 oct. I see that there was a idea#1 edge to middle trade from the low of the smaller range yesterday. I will take note of this to try and enter after the exercise is over.

The price is still in and up move. There was a poke above the 1800 on 06 OCT. I will watch if the price retrace to the pivot/S50 and then make a further move up to close the week. I am ok if it didnt do that. I will enter trades next week based on what charts show me next week.
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  • #159
  • Oct 8, 2020 11:09pm Oct 8, 2020 11:09pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Why didn't you go long on the 10th
I agree with you. I have been trading forex for a long time and I try to analyze the market well and trade. So I was able to create my own method. Take a look at my signal when you have time.
  • #160
  • Oct 9, 2020 5:32am Oct 9, 2020 5:32am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} The target is hit for the all the 3 positions. It was a no bias Up move week with a larger range in play and then it was more of a smaller range(orange line) since 07 oct. I see that there was a idea#1 edge to middle trade from the low of the smaller range yesterday. I will take note of this to try and enter after the exercise is over. The price is still in and up move. There was a poke above the 1800 on 06 OCT. I will watch if the price retrace to the pivot/S50 and then make a further move up to close the week. I am ok if it didnt do that....
Noticed you moved those targets down... really didn't need to since you didn't take any new entries. Check in mentally and make sure you aren't moving targets down out of ego. We are in an exercise so this is the time to not fear failure.

This may not be the case, but I believe you did this one other time and it stuck out to me.

Good observation on the emotional dialogue from 2 posts ago... its a huge learning. Sometimes price doesn't go anywhere, it takes a break, awaits the conditions to be met for the next move. It's a slow storm that makes us all start over-analyzing and second guessing ourselves. Nothing changed in that sideways movement, our bias remained, our direction remained. Like you said, without a compass, you can get lost and make bad decisions in these moments.
Be bullish on you.
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