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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #8,261
  • Oct 5, 2020 5:28am Oct 5, 2020 5:28am
Crunch time for DXY which finds itself at the crossroads. It can break lower strong support or higher channel resistance. I say it breaks higher, bringing EurUsd towards the 1.1500 level.
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,262
  • Oct 5, 2020 5:38am Oct 5, 2020 5:38am
Here is where I think we are going. WeŽll see...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurUSD - H4.png Size: 149 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,263
  • Oct 5, 2020 8:01am Oct 5, 2020 8:01am
Quoting Alorente
Here is where I think we are going. WeŽll see... {image}
I'm a little cautious shorting it atm. Let's see if it gets R @ 1.1775, 1.18, or 1.1815.
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1 105.png Size: 44 KB
  • #8,264
  • Oct 6, 2020 3:12am Oct 6, 2020 3:12am
short for Uj.
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  • #8,265
  • Oct 6, 2020 6:01am Oct 6, 2020 6:01am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD, I posted a market condition/cycle diagram a few pages back. This is the exact definition of range/irregular market condition. I have a mild bearish bias as long as daily close remains below 1.30. My next order is a sell @ 1.30 {image}
GBPUSD, short trade
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  • #8,266
  • Oct 6, 2020 6:07am Oct 6, 2020 6:07am
Quoting meugampong
{quote} Imo sir, after NFP which doesn't have strong momentum and effect, i decided to change my direction and waiting the triggers to enter.. {image}
This was a very good good trade. Well done!
  • #8,267
  • Oct 6, 2020 6:18am Oct 6, 2020 6:18am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD, short trade {image}
I was trying to figure out that complex correction; however, for a good trade one only needed to sell the previous S turned R @ 1.30. So simple, yet missed out by a few.
  • #8,268
  • Oct 6, 2020 6:23am Oct 6, 2020 6:23am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} AUDUSD, long trade update. sl to below daily low, tp @ 0.92. Possible short setup @ 0.72 and 0.7250 {image}
AUDUSD, short trade 2nd attempt.
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Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1 106.png Size: 46 KB
  • #8,269
  • Oct 6, 2020 6:26am Oct 6, 2020 6:26am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I'm a little cautious shorting it atm. Let's see if it gets R @ 1.1775, 1.18, or 1.1815. {image}
1.18 has been rejected. Have you traded it?
  • #8,270
  • Oct 6, 2020 6:33am Oct 6, 2020 6:33am
Quoting KevinZeng
{quote} 1.18 has been rejected. Have you traded it?
Yes, I'm in from 1.18, but it's going straight to my sl. Let's see if it turns around between 1.18 and 1.1825. I won't be shorting it if it goes above 1.1825
  • #8,271
  • Oct 6, 2020 6:54am Oct 6, 2020 6:54am
Took it as well but didn't like the PA off the S/R. Time to get on the side lines.

Wasn't expecting much off GU 1.30 and was out far too early, but managed to get a long off the Weekly open.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GU.PNG Size: 23 KB
  • #8,272
  • Oct 6, 2020 7:25am Oct 6, 2020 7:25am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yes, I'm in from 1.18, but it's going straight to my sl. Let's see if it turns around between 1.18 and 1.1825. I won't be shorting it if it goes above 1.1825
EU, this is what I'm thinking atm. if it goes straight above 1.1825, I won't be shorting it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 106.PNG Size: 83 KB
  • #8,273
  • Oct 6, 2020 7:33am Oct 6, 2020 7:33am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EU, this is what I'm thinking atm. if it goes straight above 1.1825, I won't be shorting it. {image}
My short bias on EU is fading on this PA. We would expect 1.18 to offer far more resistance. Since it has cruised straight through it, best wait it out and see. FOMC tomorrow.

Location still good, just need to see better evidence.
  • #8,274
  • Oct 6, 2020 7:37am Oct 6, 2020 7:37am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EU, this is what I'm thinking atm. if it goes straight above 1.1825, I won't be shorting it. {image}
Indeed sir.. same as my view..
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  • #8,275
  • Oct 6, 2020 7:41am Oct 6, 2020 7:41am
but sir., for me as safety reason, let the price prove himself. Breaking the last support.. pullback, that's my short.
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  • #8,276
  • Oct 6, 2020 7:43am Oct 6, 2020 7:43am
GBP/USD

now, i can see a clear stucture. Short..
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  • #8,277
  • Oct 6, 2020 7:56am Oct 6, 2020 7:56am
Quoting C-12
{quote} My short bias on EU is fading on this PA. We would expect 1.18 to offer far more resistance. Since it has cruised straight through it, best wait it out and see. FOMC tomorrow. Location still good, just need to see better evidence.
I'm looking at this on the daily chart. This will take time to develop. Let's see how it plays out. The invalidation levels are clear.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily 106.png Size: 36 KB
  • #8,278
  • Oct 6, 2020 7:59am Oct 6, 2020 7:59am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I'm looking at this on the daily chart. This will take time to develop. Let's see how it plays out. {image}
Have a similar idea in mind, we might need to get FOMC cleared and out of the way. And I might be wrong on GU 1.30, that might well be possible that was the move was done off the open today. Pre FOMC week's always a tricky read.
  • #8,279
  • Edited 9:08am Oct 6, 2020 8:52am | Edited 9:08am
An ABCD move would put the bottom of EU at 1.1550. I have changed the TP of my shorts from 1.1500 to 1.1550. Also, looking at the Daily chart, that level was good S/R in 2017 & 2018. If EurUsd plays out like this, I will trade only long from 1.1550.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurUSD - H4.png Size: 367 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EurUSD - Daily.png Size: 412 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,280
  • Oct 6, 2020 9:23am Oct 6, 2020 9:23am
EURJPY, retesting the H&Sh neckline.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY 106.PNG Size: 68 KB
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