NFP and rumors around

Good day .. Just got my pips from ISM Manufacturing .

hope everyone did well ..

Have a nice weekend

A slow week sure makes you appreciate an easy payday.

Now we can all enjoy our non farm weekend.

Good trading everyone.

I am getting some Action from the wife!! For sure!! Yahooooooo!!
Man..I thought I was goona be in the Dog house..for awhile...

Thank You !!! Elections!!

There is not much USD news next week but there are some GBP (perceived) Positive news.

So better close and run with your profits now or put stops to protect your positions...

Now the wait for UK Rate Hike on Nov 8!!!! GBPUSD will shoot up hours prior to the news! so plan your trade!

USD NFP +50 pips I like the first friday of the week!!!
Nice weekend everyone !

PS
Thanks to Mr. BurgerKing for usefull info about historical charts during NFP, greetings from Riga, Latvia

I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist, but I genuinly feel the NFP revisions are total bullshit. How is it that the BLS can magically "find" over a million jobs right before the elections? In just the last month they found a whole extra month of employment gains!

The US data is bad and getting worse. I would be very cautious about playing any $ strength based solely on the employment data. There is a very good possibility that next week could see another sharp reversal...

Hey man, glad you made some pips and good luck in the future as well.
I just hope we don't have to see the F-word everytime you post!

k

:-)
EUR/USD->40pips
GPB/USD->82pips
AUD/USD->40pips

A good W.E. start here in EURO Zone :-) next week should be weak for $... 1.34 is the objective in the three month....

Remember my post of this morning : http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...5&postcount=42

[quote=dswk]:-)
EUR/USD->40pips
GPB/USD->82pips
AUD/USD->40pips
QUOTE ]

U must have been short on the GBP before the news Dswk, werent u? , because if u know how to beat the spike u should sell that little secret to the highest bidder

I agree on the NFP being dubious. Would be electorally conspiratorial if the nov figure was revised down next month. I think though, that this could have ramifications on the next GDP release. There could be another whipshaw then, as the oct figs are bound to be revised upwards.

Therefore the strategy on NFP days is to just to wait for the number, then fade the move if revisions. Straddles would be ineffective on this day. Or simply stand aside.

It was interesting today that only the nzd/usd didnt have a whipshaw, so maybe that currency is more reliable in the future.

[quote=Ghostpipper] Hoooo yes.... since this early morning (EU ZONE GTM+2)... During Asian session, more than 50% of buyers become sellers.... follow the sharks...

[quote=BurgerKing]Next Month? Dont bet on it. Election will be over and no need to revise any numbers to show face.
[quote]

So, revisions are important only if there are ellections. Maybe. It's typically gov attitude.

Does anybody knows where can I find all revisions? I read some of BLS archived reports, and I can't find all the revisions. For example:

- the August NFP (initial 144000) was revised in November (198000), and the their statistcs table presents a value of 131000 !!!
- October NFP (initial 337000), revised in December (303000), the table shows 338000 !!!


August 2004 (release September 3, 2004)
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 144,000 in August....
Since May, nonfarm employment has risen by 313,000, as revised....

September 2004 (release October 8, 2004)
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend upward in September, increasing by 96,000.......

October 2004 (release November 5, 2004)
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 337,000 in October to 132.0
million, seasonally adjusted. This followed job gains of 139,000 in Septem-
ber and 198,000 in August (as revised).

November 2004 (release December 3, 2004)
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 112,000 in November to
132.1 million, seasonally adjusted. This followed a much larger increase
of 303,000 in October.

And now, take a look at the statistical table from their website:
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Am I missing something, or I have the feeling that this NFP is a total mess.
Sorry if I looked confused from what i have wrote, but It seems to me, that NFP beening revised anytime, all the people are looking for a NFP prior number which in fact is a wrong number. By this, I can't understand why NFP is the most powerfull USD market mover if it's not a reliable fundamental indicator.

PS anecdote: It's like my wife would tell me one day: "Darling, in August I cheated 1 time". In September she tells me, "well, in fact in August I cheated 3 times and this month only 2 times". In October she tells me "I am not cheating you". What should I belive or answer her? I think the best answer is "I don't care"

The FRED database should have the revised data (ie more recent estimates), but I don't think they have the original data series...as the revisions come in, so they data will be ammended to be as accurate as possible.

I was listening to plain old BB radio-1130 on the AM dail here in NYC...the number and revision was announced immediately.

BTW-I know I might sound a bit cynical here...but all you guys claiming to have made this and that...which brokers do you use...limit or market orders...how were the fills...I'm not hearing anything about difficulty in placing trades soon after this announcement...very surprising...

[quote=dswk] That's what I tried to do with the London sharks...they re-bought into the pound from 9060...all the way to the upper 90's...looked like they were pretty confident in their opinions...goes to show that no one's right 100%

news I was already short since before the london session at 9090 level... im more of a swing trader and only use the news as a potential catalyst to lead into a price swing, therefore im strictly not a news trader\scalper.

i had several brokers but i been using fxsol lately as i said i palce my trade at 8:29.50am market order 5 pip spread. no problems here.

I had big slippage on Oanda, on EUR\USD my limit sell was at 1.2742 and order was filled at 1.2720, and on BGP\USD limit was at 1.9042 and filled at 1.9021, so I lost 43 pips (22+21), this is for the first time since I am with Oanda

Yes, you're right. We should be more specific, so we can learn from each other.

First. I agree with some of you: I do not understand why there is so much fuss about this report. IT IS MESSY. But I don't care (as was stated by one of you). I just trade it.

Second. Newstrader: You have mentioned this several times in past threads and you are right on the spot. Good ol' Bloomberg was PERFECT, and here comes best: i'm sitting in South Europe and heard the number WITH the correction RIGHT away....no need of special/expensive newsservices. Simple is best. Just turned on my TV.

Third. The strangest thing with me is. I have more losses on regular trades. I fear newstimes like dead AND STILL end up trading them, with more success than regular trades in between news. I don't know why this is, but i have MORE fear, but trade BETTER on news.

Fourth. My trade. I went SHORT on GBP/USD at 1.9065 (with a SELL STOP order) only 10 minutes BEFORE the news. First i planned to straddle this, but then I decided to go only ONE way: down! With this decision and taking the trade further down I avoided the spike the went up to 1.9115. My TP was 65 Pips with 4 Regular Lots. My Stop Loss was above last High of 1.9133 (I know, I know lousy risk:reward ratio, but i find this less risky, thats just me). Made a nice profit. Again the best trade of the week (the ISM trade went well, too). I always enter 25 or more pips further down of current market price, BEFORE news. I usually circumvent the spike. Doesn't work all the time, but most of it.

Fifth. The Broker. I don't know if I should name the Broker. For two reasons. One> will this be considered forbidden (by FF rules) publicity? I don't know (I don't have much posts, so a newbie to the Board here). Second, I kind of fear the negative comments that could come after my post. I should only say: my Broker works to the perfection! For the past 2 months I have traded EVERY news event (2 x NFP) and have been filled up to the Pip (even if I entered the trade sometimes 5 Min before the announcement). No spread widening. I can even say that DURING the craze, my Broker allows me to move my Stop Loss "following my trade" and therefore locking in Profit all the way down. I love my Broker. Clean, professionell and works like clockwork. The trading platform as well. I hated my old Broker for its Java based platform that frooze on two NFP Fridays....I could only get in AFTER all was over to find the account in a mess).

Sixth (and last point...phew). We should ALL take the same direction before news and with this provoke the "land slide" we had today. This is the ultimate strategy: have all traders in the world take the same position, through the accumulation of orders at a certain point the direction WILL be triggered like a snow slide.... Why work against each other, if we can work together!

Wish you all a nice weekend and success for next week.

Peter.

Newstrader, how fast does bloomberg radio AM compare to newstrike or tradethenews? Hmmm... A free news service that is just a turn of a knob away that is fast and reliable? hmm.. that doesnt seem right. Can you explain some more? How fast were the revisions after the actuals?