Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2689 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #53,761
  • Oct 1, 2020 12:52pm Oct 1, 2020 12:52pm
Had a swing to deal with this time. Thought price was getting pulled towards the upper zone so took the initial buy. It decided differently, so countered south. I shouldn't have opened the 2nd sell, however I did and then price lifted again. Bought on the way back up again, closed the sells as it continued to rise, and then copped out when I had nett 8 in the bag and price had stalled a bit as it had come up just shy of my TP and had turned a bit.

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  • #53,762
  • Oct 1, 2020 1:11pm Oct 1, 2020 1:11pm
You gotta' luv, luv, luv this trading game, lol.

Had the chart sitting open from the earlier plays and saw the initial off-the-cliff drop...

Well, you know what that means! SPIKE-HUNT!!!

Went in Long on the way back from the drop - happened so fast, I only got one trade on. The dotted green lines at the top were my initial sort-of targets (lines from 5 or 15-min chart - can't remember which now).

Bish-Bash-Bosh! +20

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Then, I left it - I didn't expect it to completely reverse it again! Took my eye off that ball, lol.

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  • #53,763
  • Oct 1, 2020 1:25pm Oct 1, 2020 1:25pm
Couple of more things before I go - The Dead Zone, yesterday and today. Yesterday was a Sell Bias all the way and acted like it. Today was Neutral and looking at PA, and position in range, I wouldn't have gone in. Just FYI.

Dead Zone UC Yesterday Strong Short Bias

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Today...Not So Much...

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  • #53,764
  • Oct 1, 2020 2:45pm Oct 1, 2020 2:45pm
Never did get to the (live) horses. How did Hayley do, Claudia?
  • #53,765
  • Oct 1, 2020 3:18pm Oct 1, 2020 3:18pm
Quoting lemercenaire
Never did get to the (live) horses. How did Hayley do, Claudia?
Got an 8/1 place earlier but the 19.30 wasn't good.
  • #53,766
  • Oct 1, 2020 4:08pm Oct 1, 2020 4:08pm
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Got an 8/1 place earlier but the 19.30 wasn't good.
Ah well. Maybe next time
  • #53,767
  • Oct 2, 2020 1:11am Oct 2, 2020 1:11am
Hi all,
Both Cable & E/U have broken the 00-00 4 hour low bar, then moved back up. No trade from myself yet.
Don't forget, it is NFP day.
i will be trading the 08-00 15 break.
trade well all.
t 07-11
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,768
  • Oct 2, 2020 1:34am Oct 2, 2020 1:34am
AJ on advisor V3 - trailing stop used.
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  • #53,769
  • Oct 2, 2020 2:10am Oct 2, 2020 2:10am
Quoting birdland
{quote} i have backtested a simple approach without a stop, because i hate stops. billy's bar: TP 20 (north&south) OR close latest EOD. may: 18 june: 232 july: -23 aug: 193 sept: 228 190 trades (+147/-43) sounds nice, but the downside is a drawdown of more than -300pips. BUT, it simple illustrates the robustness of billy's bar!
That drawdown of 300 pips can probably be avoided by having an emergency stop at maybe 50 or 100 pips. Because like you saw, every now and then a day will come along to ruin all the fun. How many times in total did you get a drawdown of more than 100 pips?
  • #53,770
  • Oct 2, 2020 2:26am Oct 2, 2020 2:26am
t 08-25
Cable 08-00, nothing has happened yet, i have Pc set up on auto, hence why i am here.

low of 08-00 bar is quite close to 00-00 low, i just dont want bounce if it happens. lets see.
t 08-26
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,771
  • Oct 2, 2020 2:27am Oct 2, 2020 2:27am
Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay, IT WENT UP lol, +5%
t 08-27
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,772
  • Oct 2, 2020 2:29am Oct 2, 2020 2:29am
Hi Billy,
Took a shot at the BB today. Guess I chose the right day lol :O
Got a bit more than 5, hope you don't mind.

Cheers,
  • #53,773
  • Oct 2, 2020 2:32am Oct 2, 2020 2:32am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} That drawdown of 300 pips can probably be avoided by having an emergency stop at maybe 50 or 100 pips. Because like you saw, every now and then a day will come along to ruin all the fun. How many times in total did you get a drawdown of more than 100 pips?
I missed Bird's post which is above.

the reason i counter is , i can hold a relative small fail in limbo, ie a fail of 30 or even a lot less.
if it fails again i might be -60 or les, or another fail minus 90, <<<<<< it could happen.

with a small fail and the stats, it is quite easy to fix and i have confidence.
But with a minus 300 , that would be hard. It is a different ball game.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,774
  • Oct 2, 2020 2:34am Oct 2, 2020 2:34am
Quoting Barraka
Hi Billy, Took a shot at the BB today. Guess I chose the right day lol :O Got a bit more than 5, hope you don't mind. Cheers,
well done, nice, and welcome .
It is good when this happens , i caught one a few days ago.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,775
  • Oct 2, 2020 2:35am Oct 2, 2020 2:35am
whah! that was a nice shot! because the break of 0815 was so fast i got +22! thx!
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #53,776
  • Oct 2, 2020 2:55am Oct 2, 2020 2:55am
another spike trade from the 0815 range for +14. i use it as a support.
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trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #53,777
  • Oct 2, 2020 3:12am Oct 2, 2020 3:12am
Quoting birdland
whah! that was a nice shot! because the break of 0815 was so fast i got +22! thx!
Nice 1 bud.
i know it didn't happen today, BUT it could of been ,,,,, Low triggered then boom up north, wiping the trader out. or even creep up.

Just saying, as i was busy and also posting , i was on auto as a safe guard.
Bring it on, lol.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,778
  • Oct 2, 2020 4:20am Oct 2, 2020 4:20am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} That drawdown of 300 pips can probably be avoided by having an emergency stop at maybe 50 or 100 pips. Because like you saw, every now and then a day will come along to ruin all the fun. How many times in total did you get a drawdown of more than 100 pips?
yes, good idea, i have done that also:

here are the results of TP20 AND 50SL:

Mai +32
Juni +318
Juli -19
August +119
September +320

three drawdowns in these 5 months:
biggest drawdown was -198, then -162 and -140

i am surprised because its better than without a real market stop (only EOD stop)
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #53,779
  • Oct 2, 2020 4:26am Oct 2, 2020 4:26am
Quoting birdland
{quote} yes, good idea, i have done that also: here are the results of TP20 AND 50SL: Mai +32 Juni +318 Juli -19 August +119 September +320 three drawdowns in these 5 months: biggest drawdown was -198, then -162 and -140 i am surprised because its better than without a real market stop (only EOD stop)
Interesting results. When you say drawdown you mean the biggest losing trade that day right? Because you are closing down both trades at the end of the day anyway, as far as I can tell. Or are these longer term drawdown figures?

I thought the idea was you take the Billy bar range, pending long at the top, pending short at the bottom, both with a 20 pip TP. Hopefully both will hit profit during the day, but if not, you will close the losing trade at the end of that day, and start all over again the following day. Unless I have this wrong?
  • #53,780
  • Oct 2, 2020 4:37am Oct 2, 2020 4:37am
Two long trades on GU this morning on the 12am-4am range break. Both hit TP of 20ish pips (orders were filled slightly later due to spikes). EA shut down for the day now. If only all days were like this.

Had the EA set up to take the 2nd trade on 3 times the original lot size today if the first one failed.

If you are using the lot multiplier, the following is FYI. In this example let's say I had a max order of 4 trades, and a lot multiplier of 3:

Trade 1 long - 2 lots - fail
Trade 2 short - 6 lots - fail
Trade 3 long - 18 lots - hit TP
Trade 4 long - 2 lots - hit TP

Basically the lot multiplier only kicks in if your previous trade was a fail. And as soon as you get a successful trade, the next trade size resets back to the original value. Obviously a lot multiplier of 3 is quite dangerous, but I was only using it with a max of 2 trades so my largest trade would have been 6 lots.

The lot multiplier also resets after a new trading day starts.
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