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FX investing: mid/long term ideas

  • #161
  • Sep 29, 2020 9:07am Sep 29, 2020 9:07am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Hey, You can post as much as you like, as long as it fit the idea of the thread The way i do it, is that i divide the longs dealers by the total of open interest If you use excel, do as follow for the long dealers : Column I / Column H = % long dealers
Now makes more sense. Thanks. Looking at the chart looks like they havent finished yet to unload all the longs.
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #162
  • Sep 29, 2020 9:21am Sep 29, 2020 9:21am
Quoting Bacco
{quote} Now makes more sense. Thanks. Looking at the chart looks like they havent finished yet to unload all the longs.
When you look at the longs, they aren't very loaded, they decreased a lot their longs. Now to make sure they increase their long, price has to go down

If you look at the short, they are still loaded (not so much) but usually price rises a lot when their short is below 5% (its 11% right now)
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #163
  • Sep 30, 2020 4:00am Sep 30, 2020 4:00am
Copper swap dealers leading the way for EURUSD ?

Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #164
  • Sep 30, 2020 4:23am Sep 30, 2020 4:23am
What about Gasoline for the move of the EURO ?

Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #165
  • Oct 1, 2020 6:22am Oct 1, 2020 6:22am
Thanks for the help Kuroro
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: long dealers.png Size: 2.2 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: short dealers.png Size: 185 KB
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #166
  • Oct 1, 2020 6:45am Oct 1, 2020 6:45am
Hello Kuroro,

How do you know if the volume in certain price level is bursting?
Have you any kind of information different of cot or something like that?
::: Grao a Grao ... :::
  • #167
  • Oct 1, 2020 7:01am Oct 1, 2020 7:01am
Quoting Bacco
Thanks for the help Kuroro {image} {image}
You are welcome
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #168
  • Oct 1, 2020 7:04am Oct 1, 2020 7:04am
Quoting Salgueiro
Hello Kuroro, How do you know if the volume in certain price level is bursting? Have you any kind of information different of cot or something like that?
Looking at tick volume + where price is standing

By looking at the structure of the price, and its volume attached to it, you can tell if price will retrace back to its high (or very high) volume area

Its not COT based though, its on the platform
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #169
  • Oct 1, 2020 11:30am Oct 1, 2020 11:30am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Looking at tick volume + where price is standing By looking at the structure of the price, and its volume attached to it, you can tell if price will retrace back to its high (or very high) volume area Its not COT based though, its on the platform
ah got that now!
Thank you mate!
::: Grao a Grao ... :::
  • #170
  • Oct 1, 2020 11:54am Oct 1, 2020 11:54am
Quoting Salgueiro
{quote} ah got that now! Thank you mate!
Kuroro, where can i find such information of volume ticks in MT4?
::: Grao a Grao ... :::
  • #171
  • Oct 1, 2020 2:09pm Oct 1, 2020 2:09pm
Quoting Salgueiro
{quote} Kuroro, where can i find such information of volume ticks in MT4?
Check here

https://mt4.quantumtrading.com/suppo...-tick-volumes/

Or search VSA (volume spread analysis) here in FF
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #172
  • Oct 2, 2020 2:29am Oct 2, 2020 2:29am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Check here https://mt4.quantumtrading.com/suppo...-tick-volumes/ Or search VSA (volume spread analysis) here in FF
Thanks Kuroro!
::: Grao a Grao ... :::
  • #173
  • Oct 2, 2020 2:34am Oct 2, 2020 2:34am
why the USD is unable to break the 105.8 resistance, why the JPY are so strong?
What do dealers expect to react to this ?
When they go up?
::: Grao a Grao ... :::
  • #174
  • Oct 2, 2020 5:54am Oct 2, 2020 5:54am
Quoting Salgueiro
why the USD is unable to break the 105.8 resistance, why the JPY are so strong? What do dealers expect to react to this ? When they go up?
Too many incertitude & fears regarding the US election i guess
Look at it, Trump got Covid and usdjpy dropped 60 pips quickly

We'll know more tonight, to see what they have been doing this week.

But remember the dealers can add as many longs as they can, while you'll get margin calls


For now i don't touch this pair, i'm more focused on commodities
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #175
  • Oct 2, 2020 3:09pm Oct 2, 2020 3:09pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Too many incertitude & fears regarding the US election i guess Look at it, Trump got Covid and usdjpy dropped 60 pips quickly We'll know more tonight, to see what they have been doing this week. But remember the dealers can add as many longs as they can, while you'll get margin calls For now i don't touch this pair, i'm more focused on commodities
You're right, on the other hand that diving it was good for us too, don't you agree?
Yeah, this pair is too slow, doesn't pay our expenses.
::: Grao a Grao ... :::
  • #176
  • Oct 3, 2020 5:21am Oct 3, 2020 5:21am
Hey Kuroro, correct me if im wrong. I see an increase in bearishness side. Dealers are incresing long and closing short ( typical move on downtrend). Asset manager are increasing the short.
Following that would be a good move to open the short, but risky with brexit
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd long dealers.png Size: 1.8 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: dealers short gbp usd.png Size: 143 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd asset mgr short.png Size: 738 KB
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #177
  • Oct 4, 2020 6:02am Oct 4, 2020 6:02am
Quoting Bacco
Hey Kuroro, correct me if im wrong. I see an increase in bearishness side. Dealers are incresing long and closing short ( typical move on downtrend). Asset manager are increasing the short. Following that would be a good move to open the short, but risky with brexit {image} {image} {image}
I would say you are right
My plan is still to short rallies still

The bad news is that net dealers are back into net longs. Good thing is that short side of the dealers are still high to stage a big rally

For the assets managers, yes they went super short suddenly....it could staged a drop in price. And we are far from extreme positionning, so far so good
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #178
  • Oct 4, 2020 7:23am Oct 4, 2020 7:23am
Quoting Bacco
Hey Kuroro, correct me if im wrong. I see an increase in bearishness side. Dealers are incresing long and closing short ( typical move on downtrend). Asset manager are increasing the short. Following that would be a good move to open the short, but risky with brexit {image} {image} {image}
You've successfully set up the chaart realty nicely.

Bravo
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #179
  • Oct 4, 2020 10:01am Oct 4, 2020 10:01am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I would say you are right My plan is still to short rallies still The bad news is that net dealers are back into net longs. Good thing is that short side of the dealers are still high to stage a big rally For the assets managers, yes they went super short suddenly....it could staged a drop in price. And we are far from extreme positionning, so far so good
Right, but normally dealers accumulate on downtrend, isn it?
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #180
  • Oct 4, 2020 10:02am Oct 4, 2020 10:02am
Quoting skyf
{quote} You've successfully set up the chaart realty nicely. Bravo
Thanks mate! Still a lot to do!!
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
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