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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #8,181
  • Sep 30, 2020 3:41am Sep 30, 2020 3:41am
Quoting FraterRedox
The problem is - I also want to short WTI around 39.8. {image}
USDCAD, those triangles are tricky. You are never certain about the outcome. It can break out to either side. I went short on the R because of a good RRR. A better trade is buying the dips around 1.3250-1.32
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  • #8,182
  • Sep 30, 2020 4:00am Sep 30, 2020 4:00am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDCAD, those triangles are tricky. You are never certain about the outcome. It can break out to either side. I went short on the R because of a good RRR. A better trade is buying the dips around 1.3250-1.32 {image}
Yes, it is tricky and Iīm not trading it now. If it has some significant pull back, I rather look for a long.
It is not very healthy to look small TF-s, but I do and I donīt want to touch mating porcupines.
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Markets will move to the right.
  • #8,183
  • Sep 30, 2020 7:05am Sep 30, 2020 7:05am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD, long trade. Looking to short @ the daily chart H&Sh neckline {image}
EURUSD, short trade, I'm not very convinced. It may have another leg up before going down again. Lets see how it unfolds
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  • #8,184
  • Sep 30, 2020 7:11am Sep 30, 2020 7:11am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GU could be a bullish flag {image}
GBPUSD, long trade
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  • #8,185
  • Sep 30, 2020 7:18am Sep 30, 2020 7:18am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD, short trade, I'm not very convinced. It may have another leg up before going down again. Lets see how it unfolds {image}
Thanks
  • #8,186
  • Sep 30, 2020 7:28am Sep 30, 2020 7:28am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GU could be a bullish flag {image}
GBPUSD, long trade update, tp @ 1.3050 (ab=cd).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,187
  • Sep 30, 2020 7:30am Sep 30, 2020 7:30am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD, short trade, I'm not very convinced. It may have another leg up before going down again. Lets see how it unfolds {image}
Hello Shahab8b,
It's been very interesting to see your conversation with Alorente about where you think EU and GU are going in the next week or so. It has been mentioned that the forthcoming announcement of the aid package for the US economy will be the trigger for EU and GU to head north. It's not known when this will happen so doesn't that put your short trades at risk?
Thanks for your help, warmth and straight talking Heather.
  • #8,188
  • Sep 30, 2020 7:37am Sep 30, 2020 7:37am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD, short trade, I'm not very convinced. It may have another leg up before going down again. Lets see how it unfolds {image}
yes its possible to touch your trend line, thanks
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  • #8,189
  • Sep 30, 2020 7:37am Sep 30, 2020 7:37am
Quoting Kanderpro
{quote} Hello Shahab8b, It's been very interesting to see your conversation with Alorente about where you think EU and GU are going in the next week or so. It has been mentioned that the forthcoming announcement of the aid package for the US economy will be the trigger for EU and GU to head north. It's not known when this will happen so doesn't that put your short trades at risk?
Well, I am technical trader. The only fundamental aspect that I always pay attention to is the interest rate forecasts. It's easier for me to decide based on pa.
Also, I pointed out in the last post this might have another leg up before going down. So I switched my position while posting here. I think the next move will be down again. I will update the setup later.
  • #8,190
  • Sep 30, 2020 7:40am Sep 30, 2020 7:40am
Quoting corongumet
{quote} yes its possible to touch your trend line, thanks{image}
My tp is 1.1775 to 1.18 on the my long trade. Then I'll switch again. But lets see how it unfolds.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,191
  • Sep 30, 2020 7:47am Sep 30, 2020 7:47am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Well, I am technical trader. The only fundamental aspect that I always pay attention to is the interest rate forecasts. It's easier for me to decide based on pa. Also, I pointed out in the last post this might have another leg up before going down. So I switched my position while posting here. I think the next move will be down again. I will update the setup later.
Thanks for that. I was thinking that the surge north would be a sudden event but I suppose the market makers and the media will have a few hours' notice of an announcement and PA will behave accordingly.
Thanks for your help, warmth and straight talking Heather.
  • #8,192
  • Sep 30, 2020 8:07am Sep 30, 2020 8:07am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} My tp is 1.1775 to 1.18 on the my long trade. Then I'll switch again. But lets see how it unfolds. {image}
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Thanks
Attached Image
  • #8,193
  • Sep 30, 2020 8:14am Sep 30, 2020 8:14am
Quoting corongumet
{quote} {image}Thanks{image}
I'm not sure about the wave count. I also consider this. which means, we will see 1.20 and above as wave 5. So keep an open mind and be flexible with your wave count.

I think we might have another short opportunity if it stays below TL and 1.19.
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  • #8,194
  • Sep 30, 2020 8:19am Sep 30, 2020 8:19am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I'm not sure about the wave count. I also consider this. which means, we will see 1.20 and above as wave 5. So keep an open mind and be flexible with your wave count. I think we might have another short opportunity if it stays below TL and 1.19. {image}
yes of course. I keep opening my mind and flexible with my count.
  • #8,195
  • Sep 30, 2020 8:25am Sep 30, 2020 8:25am
Quoting shahab8b
USDJPY, I'll be watching 105.60 - 105.80 for a possible short setup {image}
USDJPY, short trade, 2nd attempt as stopped out at b/e on the first trade.
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  • #8,196
  • Sep 30, 2020 8:33am Sep 30, 2020 8:33am
Quoting shahab8b
AUDUSD, possible double bottom on H1/H2 {image}
AUDUSD, long trade update. sl to below daily low, tp @ 0.92. Possible short setup @ 0.72 and 0.7250
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  • #8,197
  • Sep 30, 2020 8:41am Sep 30, 2020 8:41am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDCAD, those triangles are tricky. You are never certain about the outcome. It can break out to either side. I went short on the R because of a good RRR. A better trade is buying the dips around 1.3250-1.32 {image}
USDCAD, short trade. Possible long setups @ 1.3250 -1.32
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  • #8,198
  • Sep 30, 2020 9:43am Sep 30, 2020 9:43am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I'm not sure about the wave count. I also consider this. which means, we will see 1.20 and above as wave 5. So keep an open mind and be flexible with your wave count. I think we might have another short opportunity if it stays below TL and 1.19. {image}
Very important: Unless EU rallies in the final hours, it will close the month with a Key Reversal candle. Over the years, I have had great success trading Key Reversal bars. This one is especially important, being a monthly candle.

This brings to mind another monthly key reversal candle EU had in May 2014 which led to big profits.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,199
  • Sep 30, 2020 10:42am Sep 30, 2020 10:42am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I'm not sure about the wave count. I also consider this. which means, we will see 1.20 and above as wave 5. So keep an open mind and be flexible with your wave count. I think we might have another short opportunity if it stays below TL and 1.19. {image}
Watching 1.1775 line and PA like sniper After NFP maybe
Stay low, Go fast - No luck, All skill
  • #8,200
  • Sep 30, 2020 10:45am Sep 30, 2020 10:45am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} Very important: Unless EU rallies in the final hours, it will close the month with a Key Reversal candle. Over the years, I have had great success trading Key Reversal bars. This one is especially important, being a monthly candle. This brings to mind another monthly key reversal candle EU had in May 2014 which led to big profits.
Thanks for that Al. Yea I plan to short again but I'm thinking about the best level to do that. I have 1.1810-1.1815 for a short setup based on daily chart. But I'm not sure if it gets there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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