OxyGen FX Trading Journal

Trade Update:
AUDJPY Long @75.29, still active but down at -120 pips
AUDJPY Long @75.00, still active but at -100 pips
AUDJPY Long @74.58, still active but at -50 pips

A Long wait. Pun intended.
The trades had a chance to escape with lesser losses (like those stated on previous post) but I chose to held on.
Have had made great profit earlier in the week, and thus had this mentally of having excess bandwidth. Not the best of decisions.
Will see what next week brings.


Next week's Top Tier event. Non Farm Payroll

My next week's focus will be on AUD (not just because of vested interest LOL), the NZD and Euro
NZDUSD has just broke below rising line, and the AUDNZD has paused after a from 1.10. The AUDNZD fall looks corrective to me, and may rise in longer terms. Hence possible that AUDUSD may rise while NZDUSD falls. BTW, NZD is considering negative rates while AUD is considering cutting rates, which I think AUD is (relatively) stronger than NZD. Just my guess.
EURUSD fall from 1.20 looks corrective as well, and if the ECB speeches next week no longer dwell into their concerns of high EURO exchange rates and that last week they already declare that they are not looking at specific exchange rates), EURUSD may just continue its bull trend.
Next week is also the end-of-month, and there may be some rebalancing of books due to the massive fall of the Majors.
But all things will look towards NFP.

CURRENCY PAIRS SUMMARY
AUDJPY: 4 consecutive weeks (and 8 consecutive days) of strong fall broke below critical support of 75.63 and the 75 figure. Next support is at the (12th June) 72.50 zone, resistance at 76.11.
AUDUSD: Strong fall broke below rising channel and paused just above 0.70 figure. Next support at 0.68 zone, resistance at 0.7192. Affected by the price of iron, gold, and imports into China. Talks of interest rates cuts.

EURJPY: 3 consecutive weeks of fall, created SHS (neckline 124.50), pausing around 122.87 (13 Jan peak). Next support at 120 zone, resistance is the neckline.
EURUSD: Broke below 1.1750 zone to create SHS. Next support 1.15, while closing above SHS neckline revives bulls. ECB still NATO (no action, talk only) regarding high EURUSD.

GBPJPY: Broke below 135 but consolidating above 133 for the last 3 days, while other pairs are falling. Next support below 133 is 131.76 and 130, resistance 135.42.
GBPUSD: Consolidate above 1.2650 (the twin-peaks of Apr2020) for the last 3 days while other paris are falling. Next support below 1.2650 is 1.25, resistance 1.2813. BREXIT. BREXIT. BREXIT.

NZDJPY: Strong weekly fall broke below 70 figure and rising channel. Next support is critical at 68.15 and 68 figure. Closing above 70 revives bulls.
NZDUSD: Strong weekly broke below rising line (that starts from 1st July), paused just above 0.65 figure. Next support is critical at 0.6488. Closing above 0.6601 revives bulls. RBNZ researching on negative rates and other tools.

USDCHF: Broke above consolidating of 0.90-0.92, creating a bullish SHS neckline 0.92. Traditional safe haven currency but SNB prone to intervention to weaken CHF (i.e causing USDCHF and EURCHF to suddenly spike up.)

USDJPY: 5 consecutive daily rally off 104 and back above 105. New PM Suga will continue Abenomics. Or so it seems.

Good Morning Asia Traders! 1st session of the 1st day of the week, the last week of the month!

Today's calendar is light. Really light. Only two items. CNY Holiday and ECB speech.
Analysis reports, current affairs, US Election-saga and month-end flows will dominate, until ECB speech where market will look for clues on EURUSD intervention (to make it lower).

Tokyo opens, and there is no signs of any panic selling.

Trade Update:
As per previous post of AUDJPY Longs.
EURUSD Long, new, @1.1627, target 1.1680

EURUSD, 4hr chart, in a possible downward channel.

EURUSD Weekly chart, for possible reference points for supports to bounce off current levels.
Of course, no retail traders trades Weekly. This is just for perspective.

TRADE UPDATE:
AUDJPY Longs from last week
EURUSD Long 1.1627
EURJPY Long, new, 122.45, target 123.25.

EURJPY has been coiling since 21 Sep.
Typically, coiling will end with continuation of trend, and sometimes trend only continue for a few pips before reversing.
Which is why I did not go short on EURJPY this morning, as I am proposing a Long.
Since EURJPY decided to briefly break below consolidation, it satisfies a end-of-coiling, and I hope my Longs is correct.
(If not, I am toasted.)

Trade Update:
(From last week)
AUDJPY Long @75.29, still active but down at -100 pips
AUDJPY Long @75.00, still active but at -70 pips
AUDJPY Long @74.58, still active but at -30 pips
(This Week)
EURUSD Long @1.1627, still active at +10 pips
EURJPY Long, new, 122.45,still active at +20 pips
GBPUSD Long, new, @1.2796, target 1.2860

GBPUSD, Daily chart, zoom out, lines drawn to highlight the significant peaks, which can be possible Support/Resistance.
1.3000, 1.2813, 1.2647

GBPUSD, Daily chart, zoom in. It is possible that price was pausing just before 1.2647 and reverse.
It has previously made a small rising bearish flag/channel, but the resultant follow thru is very weak, and paused for a few days above 1.2647.
And price was rising and testing back 1.2813 again, (and also broke above a short term falling line), hence decided to go Long.

TRADE UPDATE:
GBPUSD, close half for +50 pips, stops adjusted, target 1.2900. (The rest pls see previous post, will update later.)

Asia Mkts and Europe markets generally up lifting, most index gains more than 1%.
DJIA futures in positive territory.

TRADE UPDATE:
GBPUSD Longs closed +105 pips when hit target of 1.2900
EURUSD Long @1.1627, still active at +30 pips
EURJPY Long, new, 122.45,still active at +35 pips
(From last week)
AUDJPY Long @75.29, still active but down at -100 pips
AUDJPY Long @75.00, still active but at -70 pips
AUDJPY Long @74.58, still active but at -30 pips

GBPUSD 4hr

TRADE UPDATE:
EURJPY Long closed +65 pips, as it nears target.
EURUSD Long closed +45 pips, as it nears target.

(From last week)
AUDJPY Long @75.29, still active but down at -85 pips
AUDJPY Long @75.00, still active but at -55 pips
AUDJPY Long @74.58, still active but at -15 pips

EURJPY

EURUSD

News with long term effects.

https://www.actionforex.com/action-i...tocks-rebound/
Sterling rises broadly today after BoE Deputy Governor indicated that negative interest rate is not imminent
He said, “for me, I see the effective lower bound still at 0.1 which is where Bank Rate is at present”. Negatives rates are “in the toolbox” and BoE is just “duty bound” to explore in more details the operational considerations. Engagement with banks on negative rates will “take time”

https://www.actionforex.com/action-i...inent-rba-cut/
Aussie recovers mildly as markets are paring back expectations of imminent RBA rate cut in October. Even Westpac pushed back the forecast to November


https://www.forexfactory.com/news/10...n-economic-and
Lagarde: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament

https://www.actionforex.com/contribu...eal-this-week/
US Presidential Election Begins For Real This Week



Upcoming Events
Tomorrow, another light calendar day. The calm before the Month-End, Quarter-end flows and NFP storm.

TRADE UPDATE:
EURJPY Long, new @123, target 124
EURUSD Long, new @1.1648, target 1.1700
GBPUSD Long, new @1.2852, target 1.2950

(From last week)
AUDJPY Long @75.29, still active but down at -85 pips
AUDJPY Long @75.00, still active but at -55 pips
AUDJPY Long @74.58, still active but at -15 pips

Entered Long trade after a pullback down from today's rally.
EJ, EU and GU all had strong rally today (Monday, from Asia onwards), which looks ""impulsive"" to me, which suggest a market commitment to a trend. Especially EURJPY, where it dip below just to exhaust the bears and then rally back into the channel zone, which strongly suggest a reversal to bull for the short term.
Stock market in rally mode starting from Asia. By NY opening, DOW is up 330 points.

GD Asia Traders!
Trade Update:
EURJPY Long@123, still active at +15 pips
EURUSD [email protected], still active at +20 pips
GBPUSD [email protected], still active but down at -10 pips

(From last week)
AUDJPY Long @75.29, still active but down at -60 pips
AUDJPY Long @75.00, still active but down at -30 pips
AUDJPY Long @74.58, still active + 10 pips
which is nett = -80 pips

Yesterday, markets from Asia, Europe, US were very positive, most Indices closed above +1 %.
From Marketwatch

Also from Marketwatch. things that came to my mind: Did Trump tweet all those nonsense just to create havoc in the markets because he had vested interest (i.e Long, or Short selling)?

Trade Update: (CLOSING ALL)
EURJPY Long@123, close +10 pips
EURUSD [email protected], close +20 pips
GBPUSD [email protected], close -5 pips

(From last week)
AUDJPY Long @75.29, close at -55 pips
AUDJPY Long @75.00, close at -25 pips
AUDJPY Long @74.58, close at + 15 pips
which is nett = -65 pips

Closing all trades.
The AUDJPY ""investment"" trade is finally off loaded.
The rest, I had second thoughts. Especially GBPUSD, as it could be in s falling channel.
And that NZDUSD is prime for a deeper fall as it has yesterday broken below expanding triangle.
Will put up charts later after breakfast

TRADE UPDATE:
No trades. (see previous post)
Sometimes it can be quite liberating to have no trades.

Re-cap: FX Majors made yearly highs around 1st few days of Sep2020 and subsequently fell, and carry on falling for next two weeks. Same for stocks.
I believe now we are in corrective rally, hence I had went Long since Monday.

But the thing about corrective rally is, one never knows when it will end, and the bear trend to resume.
It is very possible that my previous Long trades will still go up further!
It is also very possible that after going further up, it reverse down fast, and caught me off guard. If this happens, I will not be able to wait it out again, as I believe the trend is bearish for the short-to-mid term.

Below are my thoughts. The Majors just looked very good for shorting, based on Daily chart.
A few things in mind. Wait for Asia open, to see reaction (esp the Trump Debt). Also, be careful not to venture into NFP with trades.

AUDUSD Daily. Just looking at the alone looks prime for shorting. The corrective rally is currently testing the various swing-bottoms from 16th July. Markets have been pricing in rate cuts next month.


EURUSD Daily. It has bounce up from base of channel. But the ominous large bearish Head-Shoulders will always remind traders


GBPUSD Daily. Its fall from Yearly highs is the most dramatic among Majors, constantly being weighted by BREXIT. The negative rates saga I feel is over, as BOE vice says its just a tool that they are obliged to research and furthermore such things takes time.


NZDUSD Daily. Broke below a expanding triangle. RBNZ makes no qualms that they are researching negative rates.

TRADE UPDATE:
AUDJPY [email protected], target~74
AUDUSD [email protected], target~70
CADJPY [email protected], target~78
NZDJPY [email protected], target~68.68
NZDUSD [email protected], target~65

Asia opens, no follow thru massive buying from NY session.
Will start build shorts.
Mindful of light-events calendar today, Month end and NFP.

TRADE UPDATE: (Close ALL)
AUDJPY [email protected], close -30 pips
AUDUSD [email protected], close -15 pips
CADJPY [email protected], close -15 pips
NZDJPY [email protected], close -20 pips
NZDUSD [email protected], close -15 pips

Although Europe session has market in the red, there seems to be reluctance of the Majors to drop. And instead, it inch up further.
Will wait out and see.

TRADE UPDATE:
None.


Asia opens, and the Majors are STILL in corrective rally, as shown in my post #212 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post13188409
Lets hope it does not go up any further to change the trend to Bullish.
Text-book technical wise, it is much easier for everyone to trade if this rally is ""corrective", and price fall further down from now.

TRADE UPDATE:
AUDUSD [email protected]
NZDUSD [email protected]

Small positions, building on.
By this time, the US presidential debate dust would be settling down, as is now 12 midnight.
Most Majors have dropped from their 2-3 day rally, which I propose as ""corrective"".
AUD and NZD have reached resistance and pull back down.

TRADE UPDATE: (Edit AUD, NZD, typo on the price)
AUDUSD short@0.7106
NZDUSD short@0.6581
CADJPY [email protected], new
EURJPY [email protected], new

CADJPY, has been coiling for past 6 days.


EURJPY, the SHS neckline currently resist any rally.

TRADE UPDATE:
AUDUSD [email protected], still active but at -70 pips
NZDUSD [email protected], still active but at -45 pips
CADJPY [email protected], still active but at -70 pips
EURJPY [email protected], close now at -5pips

As mentioned in post #215, the positions are small, for building shorts.
But at the moment, not sure if this is a good idea.
Will monitor the PA before making any decision.

(I am trading less and at longer term as I have less time this few weeks)

Positive sentiments in the (US) market due to propose COVID stimulus package and news of vaccines.
The Presidential Debate did not affect markets at all.

EURJPY. Close now. Not sure if it is going up.

From the looks of the various ccy pairs, it looks like this few days is critical.
Most of them have had bounce rally, and at critical resistance. If they had sustained trading above it, there is higher chance (well, never 100%...) that the bearish correction is over.

CURRENCY PAIRS SUMMARY (my own perspective)
AUDJPY: Strong bounce rally pausing below 76.11 (9th Sep). Sustained trading above it may suggest the bearish-correction is over and resume the main bull trend.
AUDUSD: Strong bounce rally broke above 0.7192. Sustained trading above it may suggest the bearish-correction is over and resume the main bull trend. Affected by the price of iron, gold, and imports into China. Talks of interest rates cuts.

EURJPY: Bounce rally pausing below SHS neckline (124.50). Sustained trading above it may suggest bearish-correction is over and resume the main bull trend.
EURUSD: Bounce rally broke above SHS neckline (1.1750). Sustained trading above the neckline may suggest bearish-correction is over and resume the main bull trend. ECB still NATO (no action, talk only) regarding high EURUSD.

GBPJPY: Bounce rally sustained above 135. Next resistance is 138.30 zone, (200 pips away from current price) which sustained trading above it may suggest the resumption of the main bull trend.
GBPUSD: Bounce rally pausing below 1.30 figure, which is also a confluence of peaks/bottoms. Sustained trading above it may suggest resumption of the main bull trend. BREXIT rumours/news/tweets etc all are strangely market-moving..

NZDJPY: It broke below a large rising channel, and has made a technical Lower-Low when it dip to 68.63, but the bounce rally is too strong. Note that EURUSD had the same situation (made technical lower low) and took 9 days before going into bearish dip.
NZDUSD: It broke below a large rising channel but bounced strong off 0.65 figure and broke above 0.6601 (neckline of double top). Sustained trading above it may suggest resumption of the main bull trend. RBNZ researching negative rates and other tools.

USDCHF: Broke below 0.92 (neckline of inverse-SHS). Sustained trading below it may suggest resumption of the main bear trend, Traditional safe haven currency but SNB prone to intervention to weaken CHF (i.e causing USDCHF and EURCHF to suddenly spike up.)

USDJPY: Bounce rally off 104 and back above 105. New PM Suga will continue Abenomics. Or so it seems.

TRADE UPDATE:
AUDUSD [email protected], still active but at -67 pips
AUDUSD [email protected], new

NZDUSD [email protected], still active but at -60 pips
NZDUSD [email protected], new

CADJPY [email protected], still active but at -70 pips

AUD and NZD has been forming a parallel rising channel since their 5-day old bounce rally.
Most of the pairs, as previous post mentioned, as around their respective resistance.
At this point, cannot be certain if this rally is corrective (as I proposed) or is this evolving to be a continuation of the main Bull trend.


Tonight NFP.