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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #8,101
  • Sep 24, 2020 10:43am Sep 24, 2020 10:43am
Quoting Alorente
EU closed 3 H1 dojis in a row. Now it is trying again to go north. The Stochastic fan is all bunched up, which usually means explosion in the opposite direction. {image}
Thanks for pointing that out Al. Yes, EU H1 is a wedge, ready to break out north.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 924 i.PNG Size: 101 KB
  • #8,102
  • Sep 24, 2020 10:48am Sep 24, 2020 10:48am
The Nasdaq rallying from the double bottom should help all the GBP pairs. We may be moving to Risk On. WeŽll see how it closes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NAS100,H4.png Size: 359 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,103
  • Sep 24, 2020 10:52am Sep 24, 2020 10:52am
Quoting Alorente
The Nasdaq rallying from the double bottom should help all the GBP pairs. We may be moving to Risk On. WeŽll see how it closes. {image}
yea, that's a wedge too. I missed out. I had pending buy orders at a lower price on both QQQ and SPY
  • #8,104
  • Sep 24, 2020 11:05am Sep 24, 2020 11:05am
Quoting shahab8b
USDCAD R zone 1.34 {image}
USDCAD, switched to short after rejection from 1.34
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily 924 m.png Size: 26 KB
  • #8,105
  • Sep 24, 2020 11:05am Sep 24, 2020 11:05am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} yea, that's a wedge too. I missed out. I had pending buy orders at a lower price on both QQQ and SPY
Anything can happen in the markets as we all know, but going through the charts, there is a strong feeling of breakout and Risk on building. WeŽll see if it pans out.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,106
  • Sep 24, 2020 11:08am Sep 24, 2020 11:08am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} Anything can happen in the markets as we all know, but going through the charts, there is a strong feeling of breakout and Risk on building. WeŽll see if it pans out.
Yea, very good call. I still think the US stocks are going down based on monthly chart, but it won't a straight line.
  • #8,107
  • Sep 24, 2020 11:08am Sep 24, 2020 11:08am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} Anything can happen in the markets as we all know, but going through the charts, there is a strong feeling of breakout and Risk on building. WeŽll see if it pans out.
I would not be surprised if the Weekly candle for EU closes as a long hammer.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,108
  • Sep 24, 2020 11:19am Sep 24, 2020 11:19am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} I would not be surprised if the Weekly candle for EU closes as a long hammer.
yea, that will not surprise me. I think a retest of the H&S neckline is another good short opportunity. Also, looking at weekly chart, I have 1.1785 as short entry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU wk 924 5.PNG Size: 134 KB
  • #8,109
  • Sep 24, 2020 11:24am Sep 24, 2020 11:24am
Quoting shahab8b
GU, possible long setup @ 1.2707, sl (15), tp 1.39 {image}
my tp for this trade is 1.29 not 1.39
  • #8,110
  • Sep 24, 2020 11:35am Sep 24, 2020 11:35am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yea, very good call. I still think the US stocks are going down based on monthly chart, but it won't a straight line.
Market selloff again. GBP will come down unless it turns.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,111
  • Sep 24, 2020 11:46am Sep 24, 2020 11:46am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} Market selloff again. GBP will come down unless it turns.
GU pa has been tricky to read today. It needs to clear R @ 1.2775.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 924 9.png Size: 35 KB
  • #8,112
  • Sep 24, 2020 12:11pm Sep 24, 2020 12:11pm
Quoting shahab8b
GU, possible long setup @ 1.2707, sl (15), tp 1.39 {image}
GU, long trade update, it's getting close to the same R @ 1.2775. it may or may not get rejected again. A safe practice is to tp on half and let the rest run with sl @ b/e or a small profit. I'm gonna keep it running though as is.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 924 i.png Size: 31 KB
  • #8,113
  • Sep 24, 2020 12:22pm Sep 24, 2020 12:22pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDCAD, long trade update, I moved my sl to (+120) below daily low. From here it's either straight up or down {image}
USDCAD, short trade, it formed a double top on H1. I'd sell the rallies against the top (short term).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH1 924.png Size: 37 KB
  • #8,114
  • Edited 3:54pm Sep 24, 2020 12:55pm | Edited 3:54pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Thanks for pointing that out Al. Yes, EU H1 is a wedge, ready to break out north. {image}
EU, long trade, especial thanks to Al for pointing out the candlestick patterns. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post13182930

I'll be looking to short again when we get close to the daily H&S neckline (1.1750-75)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1 924 r.png Size: 34 KB
  • #8,115
  • Edited 6:45pm Sep 24, 2020 6:18pm | Edited 6:45pm
AUDUSD, I'm considering a short-term long trade if it can remain above 0.7040. H4 shows a possible inverted H&SH. I will switch to short above 0.7150 if we get there. will update
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD 924.PNG Size: 57 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: AUH4 924.PNG Size: 102 KB
  • #8,116
  • Edited 7:34pm Sep 24, 2020 6:37pm | Edited 7:34pm
Quoting shahab8b
AUDUSD, I'm considering a short-term long trade if it can remain above 0.7040. H4 shows a possible inverted H&SH. I will switch to short above 0.7150 if we get there. will pdate {image} {image} {image}
If it breaks below 0.7040, I will use the following setup: long @ 0.70, sl (20), tp (150)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU 70.PNG Size: 56 KB
  • #8,117
  • Edited 12:37am Sep 25, 2020 12:26am | Edited 12:37am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} If it breaks below 0.7040, I will use the following setup: long @ 0.70, sl (20), tp (150) {image}
Hello shahab8b,
Thank you for your contributions here.
Your last 2 posts seem contradictory but have the same target. The post previous to the one I've quoted says you'll go long "if it can remain above 0.7040."
I see the resistance turned support in July on the Daily chart with a high of 0.70377 but I am intrigued by how specific you are about 0.7040.
Thanks for your help, warmth and straight talking Heather.
  • #8,118
  • Sep 25, 2020 2:36am Sep 25, 2020 2:36am
GBPJPY is on the verge of breaking the neckline of the H&S pattern. I have been scalping this thing to death since yesterday. In an out 20 times already. Great pair for scalping.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY,H1.png Size: 387 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,119
  • Edited 4:16am Sep 25, 2020 3:44am | Edited 4:16am
Quoting Kanderpro
{quote} Hello shahab8b, Thank you for your contributions here. Your last 2 posts seem contradictory but have the same target. The post previous to the one I've quoted says you'll go long "if it can remain above 0.7040." I see the resistance turned support in July on the Daily chart with a high of 0.70377 but I am intrigued by how specific you are about 0.7040.
I don't understand the contradiction. Those are two separate trades. At the time of posting the first one, the trade could be taken @ 0.7055-0.7050 with sl below 0.7040. That gives you sl of 10-15 pips. If it failed, then you were out with 15-10 pips loss. The second trade was a confluence trade (based on round number and S) that could give a bounce and let you move your sl to b/e. and had a sl of 20 pips. If you wanted to stay in your first trade with a sl of 0.6980, your sl would be 95 pips combined as compared to 35 pips on 2 separate trades. Also, 0.7040 was the level that defined the bias on H1/M30 at the time of writing, above that bullish, below bearish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM30 925.png Size: 39 KB
  • #8,120
  • Sep 25, 2020 3:54am Sep 25, 2020 3:54am
Inverted H&S for EU, good for 54 pips from neckline. 75 pips from current location. It would take price to the neckline of the top formation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD,H1.png Size: 226 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
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