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MACD +60% Winrate 1:1.5 RR

  • #41
  • Sep 19, 2020 11:06am Sep 19, 2020 11:06am
Quoting Adam84
{quote} Hi Mtlguy, could you be so kind to share the full results of your backtest (with statistical information). I am very curious about the winrate (although it won’t come close to what we hoped to see) and the maximum consecutive losses.
The backtest hung in July 2011 and I had to stop it...

I will redo it on 2010 alone, and post here... hang on, it takes forever

Then do it in 2020, just to see if things are different.
  • #42
  • Sep 19, 2020 11:54am Sep 19, 2020 11:54am
Quoting Mtlguy
It is still going now January 2012. {image}
Now, if you reverse the entries, wouldn't it be profitable?
  • #43
  • Sep 19, 2020 5:26pm Sep 19, 2020 5:26pm
I know you guys are trying to make a quick profit on 30 minutes, but I think you should also use the Daily as a guide

For instance, the JPY has shown increasing strength since the new prime minister

Here are a few charts, you decide, best to check all the JPY pairs, not all have crossed the 200 EMA

But once they start a move, it could last, your thoughts?



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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #44
  • Sep 20, 2020 11:36am Sep 20, 2020 11:36am
Quoting Mtlguy
{quote} The backtest hung in July 2011 and I had to stop it... I will redo it on 2010 alone, and post here... hang on, it takes forever Then do it in 2020, just to see if things are different.
Hey friend, that wouldnt be enough to prove anything, unfortunately. If you cant do 2010 to today, I suggest at minimum 2011-2014 2017-today

Also, use OHLC 1 minute, not every tick. For this strategy it wont matter.

Also, if you want to work tirelessly to find a way to make this profitable enough that it is worth trading, dont use the same settings for the buys and sells. moving averages dont really work that way... neither does the macd.

Also, an optimized version of this will bring in, if your lucky, 1-3 trades a month. AND will probably lose its profitability if used on more than one currency. Why? Because a strat like this needs very different settings for different currencies, and takes margin nonetheless..

SOOOOO when all the work is done your strategy will look NOTHING like this simple setup, and you have a 2 trades a month going, only one currency pair, at, lets say, around 1.5 profit ratio..

Its worth it if you already have a good amount of strategies working that are NOT like this at all, and can make up for the problems this one will eventually cause.

as you all know, diversity is necessary to survive. Dont put all your eggs in one basket as they say, right ?
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #45
  • Sep 20, 2020 1:44pm Sep 20, 2020 1:44pm
I'm just trying to help here with some good backtesting with what I have... but this EA keeps on hanging.

I have the data from 2003 till now... with 99.99% testing confidence. But if it keeps hanging its useless.

If there's another EA I can test to help out please let me know.
  • #46
  • Sep 20, 2020 2:24pm Sep 20, 2020 2:24pm
Wish I could help, but Ill be on the road for a while... Another solution would be to focus on the last 3 years, optimize it for that time, and stop trading and reoptimize it every 3-5 months by adding the last months. So, 2017, 18, 19 - today. Then stop for half a year if it takes more than 1/5 of what it has given, then reoptimize it with at least the last 3 years, and on and on...

One thing is certain, it is no good with these settings exactly. Nothing is optimal: not the MA, not the MACD(even the below or above 0 setting is not optimal, it should be different for the sell and the buy), not the money management... All has to be changed a bit to make the big difference.

But once that work done, youll have a nice, easy, successful strategy
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #47
  • Sep 20, 2020 4:08pm Sep 20, 2020 4:08pm
Quoting Mtlguy
I'm just trying to help here with some good backtesting with what I have... but this EA keeps on hanging. I have the data from 2003 till now... with 99.99% testing confidence. But if it keeps hanging its useless. If there's another EA I can test to help out please let me know.
Dear Mtlguy, apologies for not replying earlier, I missed your previous post somehow. Too bad that the ea is not functioning well in the backtest, but thank you for your endeavours so far. It is much appreciated!
  • #48
  • Sep 20, 2020 5:18pm Sep 20, 2020 5:18pm
Quoting Adam84
{quote} Dear Mtlguy, apologies for not replying earlier, I missed your previous post somehow. Too bad that the ea is not functioning well in the backtest, but thank you for your endeavours so far. It is much appreciated!
My pleasure... its like there's something wrong with it... its already very slow, but it slows down furthermore as the test progresses... then stalls.

Not very interesting.

I have no such issues with the numerous EAs I have tested in the past.

All in all, with 99.9% certainty, this EA is not worth your money.
  • #49
  • Sep 20, 2020 6:31pm Sep 20, 2020 6:31pm
My MACD MA type strategy, which is profitable since 7+ years, is quite different from this one in the end, but will only give 1-4 trades a month for a good +-1:2 ratio, giving about the same amount of loses then wins.

The tips Ive shared in my previous posts are sufficient. From them, you should be able to build your own in a couple days or weeks work.

I would love to share it with you all, but I know from too many bad experiences (mine and many other s I know personally!)that it will cause too many losses if you dont have a few profitable strategies already, good solid strategies to counter it when it fails. I have lived it and feel responsible because I knew, I knew it would happen but I just wanted to share to a desperate friend so much. I was blinded.

So for now, all I can do is what Ive posted above. If you follow those tips and start off with this strategy here, you can do it !


IMPORTANT dont just trade one strategy when its this type, or it will eventually take all that it has given. youll need to diversify with this, balance it out with a countertrend, a range..... and more trend strats. The more they differ, the better. Dont put your eggs in one basket.

DONT BELIEVE the hype of ANY strategy, alone, whether on youtube or elsewhere. You want many strategies that will each take the lead in its time, to support the failing ones.

Courage and peace to you all
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #50
  • Sep 22, 2020 3:42pm Sep 22, 2020 3:42pm
hello, im looking for a simple MACD EA that can only trade the "MACD line"?
for example...

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  • #51
  • Sep 22, 2020 10:50pm Sep 22, 2020 10:50pm
Quoting swayam1069
Hi, I have seen the Videos and they looked promising so I had a EA made for this. In the short term it did make profitable trades but when I backtested 1 Year of Data, it was profitable. It might be soming I did wrong, I am not sure. The EA follows exactly the rules in terms of Stop Loss and Take Profit. the inputs are: 1-Time filter: to allow the ea to work during certain period 2-Start hour 3-End hour 4-MACD settings (indicator attached) 5-Moving average settings 6-Trade_Comment 7-MaxTrades open at same time 8-Lots OR Risk Percentage of the Account...
Hello, i am not clear on these points. (12-Trailing stop by ratio & 13-Break even by ratio).

if i input "1" for example, will the breakeven be activated when profit gets to R1:1 ?

thanks
  • #52
  • Sep 24, 2020 3:33pm Sep 24, 2020 3:33pm
https://www.mql5.com/en/market/produ...#!tab=overview

Heres an indicator with alerts
  • #53
  • Oct 24, 2020 7:05pm Oct 24, 2020 7:05pm
Quoting Mtlguy
It is still going now January 2012. {image}
The backtest does not look right. If the backtest is true, then you could just take opposite trade and win? The graph should be more zigzag.
  • #54
  • Mar 7, 2021 3:12pm Mar 7, 2021 3:12pm
Quoting swayam1069
Hi, I have seen the Videos and they looked promising so I had a EA made for this. In the short term it did make profitable trades but when I backtested 1 Year of Data, it was profitable. It might be soming I did wrong, I am not sure. The EA follows exactly the rules in terms of Stop Loss and Take Profit. the inputs are: 1-Time filter: to allow the ea to work during certain period 2-Start hour 3-End hour 4-MACD settings (indicator attached) 5-Moving average settings 6-Trade_Comment 7-MaxTrades open at same time 8-Lots OR Risk Percentage of the Account...
Any chance i can get the MCAD with the SignalMA as EMA instead?

Tradingview use SignalMA as EMA and i did my backtesting with this. I like the idea of having an alert when macd cross but i need the signalMA to be EMA and not SMA. I can't change it in the settings, i guess this is hardcoded.
  • #55
  • Mar 8, 2021 9:59am Mar 8, 2021 9:59am
Quoting ryuryu
Fake. Win trade will gain 143$ -spread, not 150$. Loss trade will gain at least -107$ +spread, not 100. In very best situation this will be 115/135 which is not 1:1.5. In real life it will be loss in total on long run.

Exactly so.


Quoting ryuryu
Also on video he was trading trend. But once market will flat this will ruin all.

Which is why all these "100-trade 'tests' " of his are a complete joke and a waste of time.
  • #56
  • Mar 8, 2021 10:27am Mar 8, 2021 10:27am
Quoting Quickly
{quote} Exactly so. {quote} Which is why all these "100-trade 'tests' " of his are a complete joke and a waste of time.
Few things. You can do 1.6. That will cover the spread and commission. The Winrate will be a tad lower but you will still make money in the long run. 1.5 to 2.2 is the best ratio for this strategy.

Regarding the ranges you are correct. You should not enter on ranges. Take this strategy as a base. Not exactly as describe. Do not take trades if prices cross 200 Ema. Only when you see a clear trend. Also keep an eye on news and bigger picture.

Hope this helps.
  • #57
  • Mar 8, 2021 12:49pm Mar 8, 2021 12:49pm
Quoting booker21
{quote} Few things. You can do 1.6. That will cover the spread and commission. The Winrate will be a tad lower but you will still make money in the long run. 1.5 to 2.2 is the best ratio for this strategy. Regarding the ranges you are correct. You should not enter on ranges. Take this strategy as a base. Not exactly as describe. Do not take trades if prices cross 200 Ema. Only when you see a clear trend. Also keep an eye on news and bigger picture. Hope this helps.
Thanks, but what "helps" is to use something like ForexTaster to run a backtest quickly over 10 years' data (something he never does), discover that it doesn't have a single profitable year and then start thinking about WHY it consistently loses money.

Doing that is where one's helpful forex-trading education starts.
  • #58
  • Mar 8, 2021 2:44pm Mar 8, 2021 2:44pm
I'm not sure who are you referring to. I assume you are bashing Trader rush channel, he is just a channel from you tube give him a break. You are expecting way to much from these "you tube" guys.

As i said, you can grab some "ideas" from these YouTube gurus and mold it to your needs and you can use any back test utility to see if it worth the time or not. What I'm saying is that with some tweaking you can make this strategy a profitable one.

No strategy, or at least, most strategies will need different approach on different market. You can't trade ranges the same way you do trends, so having a single strategy that match all is really hard. Most people ignore ranges for this reason.
  • #59
  • Mar 8, 2021 3:12pm Mar 8, 2021 3:12pm
Quoting Quickly
Thanks, but what "helps" is to use something like ForexTaster to run a backtest quickly over 10 years' data (something he never does), discover that it doesn't have a single profitable year and then start thinking about WHY it consistently loses money. Doing that is where one's helpful forex-trading education starts.
If they want to believe that MACD can give positive expectation... why not?

There is no point to argue with people who even can't create simplest EA to test the things, but they only can watch youtube.

If they can't understand basic maths about commissions, spreads, slippage and swaps next great idea will be "why not to reverse losing strategy to have profit". Just let's wait a little.
Observer effect
  • #60
  • Mar 8, 2021 5:32pm Mar 8, 2021 5:32pm
MACD alone will do shit. like i said, you need to apply this with price action, if you are in a range you do not trade. Like i said you can't expect the same strategy works exactly the same on a range vs a trend.

You can't trade this strategy like a robot, price above 200, macd crosses below 0 buy. that's simple dumb if you expect to make money by that alone.
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