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MACD +60% Winrate 1:1.5 RR

  • #21
  • Sep 16, 2020 6:39am Sep 16, 2020 6:39am
Quoting edwinjil
{quote} Which indicator are you using? Or how are you testing? Thanks for the feedback
I'm using the default MACD settings 12,26,9 the entry is when MACD cross is below 0 line of MACD and PA is above 200EMA just like in the video for long setup and opposite for short setup SL goes below the pullback of the trend and TP is 1.5:1 RRR fixed. I had an idea of maybe improving the strategy with ATR as a SL when I would use 2x ATR of an entry candle as a SL with the hopes that It will either improve the win rate or maybe allow us to improve the RRR to maybe like 2:1 while still maintaining the win rate about 52% that would be nice if we could get win rate of 48-52% with 2:1 RRR

With regards
Geeze
  • #22
  • Sep 16, 2020 3:23pm Sep 16, 2020 3:23pm
Quoting edwinjil
{quote} Please share your EA so that we test it ourselves. From my view, it seems profitable even in the long run since it does not give many signals. Also note that 1. You do not open a new trade when one is still running 2. Ensure the crossover is either above zero macd for sell and below macd for Buy
First off, I'm a good soul here. I am not trying to discourage you. I just couldnt help myself because I have gone down this path and felt that perhaps I could save someone some time and effort, or worse.

So many strategies have amazing result for these last months. Ive got one with 93! profit factor, non-stop wins, everyday. Too good to be true? yes, because before you know it, the same strategy takes back all profits before you can realize it is not coming back. The market will have changed that much, already.

One thing I rarely do for this is take advantage of it till it takes back around 15% of the earnings it has brought in the first place, then It is very often time to move on to another opportunity.

Better safe than sorry, no ?

But generally I stay away from these strategies that do not survive the 10+years test, and this one doesnt. Because 9 out of 10 times, at least for me, and several times during the years, it was not worth the extra effort, analysis, time away from what already works. Thats it, I rather not stop trading with what always worked. Its just not worth the extra temporary return.


I invite all of you to post all your backtesting. To leave no stone unturned. Are you covering months over 10 years ago, are you covering the slow months of many summers ? Concentrate on where the strategy fails, not win, and you will have a much greater chance at finding a strategy that works.

I have gone through this so many times... sorry, Was trying to help. In case someone isnt too blinded by the testing they have done that show amazing returns. No, 100 trades is not enough. It is far more complicated than that, unfortunately.
Better safe than sorry, no ?
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #23
  • Sep 16, 2020 7:29pm Sep 16, 2020 7:29pm
Quoting edwinjil
{quote} Kindly help us develop the simple EA to enable us to backtest the strategy so that we know for sure if it works

For the MACD/200EMA expert advisor you can contact SteveHopwood but he has since moved.

link here to his MPTM in FF.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...-management-ea
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #24
  • Sep 17, 2020 1:56am Sep 17, 2020 1:56am
Hi,

I have seen the Videos and they looked promising so I had a EA made for this. In the short term it did make profitable trades but when I backtested 1 Year of Data, it was profitable. It might be soming I did wrong, I am not sure. The EA follows exactly the rules in terms of Stop Loss and Take Profit.

the inputs are:

1-Time filter: to allow the ea to work during certain period

2-Start hour

3-End hour

4-MACD settings (indicator attached)

5-Moving average settings

6-Trade_Comment

7-MaxTrades open at same time

8-Lots OR Risk Percentage of the Account

9-TakeProfit_In_Pips: if true then its pips and if false then its ratio(1.5)

10-Stoploss_In_Pips: if true then its by pips and if false then its by structure plus the number of pips you will input in stoploss cell

11-Take profit and stoploss cells: it can accept either pips or ratio based on your selection above

12-Trailing stop by ratio

13-Break even by ratio

Lets see if you guys can figure out the issue and we can make this EA better. I dont have access to make this EA edited so maybe someone can take over the EA and edit and improve the code.

I dont have the .set files I was using right now, but I will be home in few hours and I will update the .set files here.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 1_MA_MACD_True_EA_V2.mq4   25 KB | 1,108 downloads
File Type: ex4 MACD_TRUE_COLOR.ex4   13 KB | 1,026 downloads
  • #25
  • Sep 17, 2020 1:21pm Sep 17, 2020 1:21pm
I think maybe you should calculate last fractal (swing low/high) and use that as SL, then use R/R 1:1.5 instead of a fixed pip SL.
I believe in the video entries are cherrypicked if last low/high isn't too far away when macd crosses, and SL is set on last swing high or low, then TP is calculated.
  • #26
  • Sep 17, 2020 7:25pm Sep 17, 2020 7:25pm
Hi
If you watch all videos on TradingRush’s youtube channel, You will see that he didn’t use only this macd+ema. He also used MTF analysis, S/R levels, candles... So i think that his trading strat testing videos are just to show that indicator backtest is a must to build up your confidence before you apply it into your trading strat.
  • #27
  • Sep 17, 2020 9:32pm Sep 17, 2020 9:32pm
Quoting shadmar
I think maybe you should calculate last fractal (swing low/high) and use that as SL, then use R/R 1:1.5 instead of a fixed pip SL. I believe in the video entries are cherrypicked if last low/high isn't too far away when macd crosses, and SL is set on last swing high or low, then TP is calculated.
The EA does use the Last Fractal, if the Stop loss is False, it will use the Last Fractal + any pips you define in the Stop loss slot.
  • #28
  • Sep 18, 2020 4:12am Sep 18, 2020 4:12am
Quoting swayam1069
Hi, I have seen the Videos and they looked promising so I had a EA made for this. In the short term it did make profitable trades but when I backtested 1 Year of Data, it was profitable. It might be soming I did wrong, I am not sure. The EA follows exactly the rules in terms of Stop Loss and Take Profit. the inputs are: 1-Time filter: to allow the ea to work during certain period 2-Start hour 3-End hour 4-MACD settings (indicator attached) 5-Moving average settings 6-Trade_Comment 7-MaxTrades open at same time 8-Lots OR Risk Percentage of the Account...
Hi Swayam1069, it was very generous of you to share your EA. Could you share with us what the general winrate of your EA was during your research? In my opinion, even if this system only has a 50% winrate, it is still profitable given the 1:1.5 risk/reward ratio. The only thing that might be not so wise to do, is to trade lower timeframes because of the influence of spread on the trade then and commission fees (because trading lower timeframes usually comes with higher lot size and therefore higher commissions).
  • #29
  • Sep 18, 2020 4:19am Sep 18, 2020 4:19am
Quoting swayam1069
Hi, I have seen the Videos and they looked promising so I had a EA made for this. In the short term it did make profitable trades but when I backtested 1 Year of Data, it was profitable. It might be soming I did wrong, I am not sure. The EA follows exactly the rules in terms of Stop Loss and Take Profit. the inputs are: 1-Time filter: to allow the ea to work during certain period 2-Start hour 3-End hour 4-MACD settings (indicator attached) 5-Moving average settings 6-Trade_Comment 7-MaxTrades open at same time 8-Lots OR Risk Percentage of the Account...
Thanks for your effort..
  • #30
  • Sep 18, 2020 4:44am Sep 18, 2020 4:44am
Quoting Adam84
{quote} Hi Swayam1069, it was very generous of you to share your EA. Could you share with us what the general winrate of your EA was during your research? In my opinion, even if this system only has a 50% winrate, it is still profitable given the 1:1.5 risk/reward ratio. The only thing that might be not so wise to do, is to trade lower timeframes because of the influence of spread on the trade then and commission fees (because trading lower timeframes usually comes with higher lot size and therefore higher commissions).
There is a Backtest of 1.3 Year for EURUSD and 30Min. Chart. It uses 1:1.5 Risk-Reward and it risks 1% of the account. The Stop loss is below the recent fractal +5 Pips.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-30Min.gif Size: 7 KB
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  • #31
  • Sep 18, 2020 4:58am Sep 18, 2020 4:58am
Here is the basic explanation of the settings. feel free to do your own tests and would be cool to find the good settings for a Profitable EA.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #32
  • Edited 8:11am Sep 18, 2020 7:12am | Edited 8:11am
Quoting swayam1069
{quote} There is a Backtest of 1.3 Year for EURUSD and 30Min. Chart. It uses 1:1.5 Risk-Reward and it risks 1% of the account. The Stop loss is below the recent fractal +5 Pips. {image} {image} {image}
Once more thanks Swayam1069! I believe there is nothing to complain about. With the given risk/reward ratio, a win ratio of 47% gives absolutely an edge in the market and can provide decent long term income.

How I would like trade this is by using martingale. This is not popular method with many traders for very understandable reasons, so I am not trying to start a discussion about the pros and cons of such a system. But with maximum 2 registered consecutive losses in 100 trades - or 5 on the basis of the youtube video at the beginning of the thread - there is absolutely room for that in my opinion.

If you are willing to take the risk there will not be more than 6 consecutive losses, you will be risking 1.5% of your account balance at the beginning of a new sequence of trades with a potential gain of (more than) 2%. Within 36 - 40 new sequences the account balance will be doubled and you can trade for free. With a win rate of 47%, there is a risk of 1.1% of hitting 7 consecutive losses (so this will eventually happen but there is a reasonable chance that by then you have been able to withdraw (i) the initial deposit and (ii) additional profit).

My question: would someone be so kind to add a martingale function to the current EA - which Swayam1069 kindly shared with us - by adding the following options:

- if the last closed position was a loss, then the next position will have twice the risk of the risk of that previous position.
- in all events: the EA does not open a new position if there is still a position open on the account.
- an option to make the EA stop opening new positions if a certain account balance has been reached (to make sure that there is enough time to withdraw profit inbetween trades).

That would be much appreciated and then I would be very willing to put the EA to a test by running it on one account with several 30 minutes or 1 hour charts.

EDIT: just noticed that in Swayam1069's backtest the amount of maximum consecutive losses is 6 instead of 2 (this last number relates to the average amount of consecutive losses). I misread that information. In view thereof, it might be better to risk 0,75% at the beginning of each new trade sequence, which allows a total of 7 consecutive losses before a winner occurs. This means that the risk of blowing the account (which happens at 8 consecutive losses) is less than 0.6% on the basis of a win ratio of 47% and that each winning sequence gives around 1% profit (incl the costs for commisions and spread). It that case it would require around 70 winning sequences to double the account.
  • #33
  • Sep 18, 2020 8:43am Sep 18, 2020 8:43am
I can test this from 2003 with 99%... if you guys are interested le me know which settings I should put and I'll provide results here.
  • #34
  • Edited 10:51am Sep 18, 2020 10:26am | Edited 10:51am
Quoting Mtlguy
I can test this from 2003 with 99%... if you guys are interested le me know which settings I should put and I'll provide results here.
That is a very generous offer Mtlguy and is very much appreciated. I am mostly curious about the win rate in the long run (500+ trades) with the basic settings posted above by Swayam1069 and the stop loss placed without additional 5 pips since this also increases the TP level and has not led to a better win rate so far. This means that the number in the below yellow square has to be replaced by 0.

I think it is best to start with low spread and low commission pairs such as the EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and USDJPY. Time frame could be 30 minutes or higher. Just select one you like. If this system has a long term edge then probably that will be shown on more than one pair and on more than one timeframe.
Attached Image
  • #35
  • Sep 18, 2020 11:02am Sep 18, 2020 11:02am
Greetings - Couldn't help but chime in. There is nothing special about this system that would provide any kind of edge long term...in fact, you will find no such system here. Nobody here will be able to prove with any significant level of confidence that any systems on these forums are long term profitable.

To add to the spread/commission comments, it is the most important as relating to all of the strategys on these threads; as any long term losing system would be a profitable system if you traded against (opposite the signals) it long term. Commission and spread is what guarantees that your account will be bled - even with all of the discipline to "stick with the rules". Less discipline, and it will be bled quicker.

A real edge will never be posted here, if it was, it wouldn't be an edge.

The simplest long term "edge" that you can have in the markets is inflation. In the FX markets, the edge is in its use as a hedge against a real business purpose. Short term speculation is random and futile on the retail side.

Another edge is to setup for failure on either side of a trade. When using inapplicable probability distributions, like a normal distribution, for market movements, the best bet is to bet that the system will eventually fail spectacularly...with the understanding that you can only do this if the "price is cheap" and the payout is large and you are capable of sustaining losses until the system blows up.

No arguments here, just an opinion
  • #36
  • Sep 18, 2020 11:44am Sep 18, 2020 11:44am
Quoting Adam84
{quote} That is a very generous offer Mtlguy and is very much appreciated. I am mostly curious about the win rate in the long run (500+ trades) with the basic settings posted above by Swayam1069 and the stop loss placed without additional 5 pips since this also increases the TP level and has not led to a better win rate so far. This means that the number in the below yellow square has to be replaced by 0. I think it is best to start with low spread and low commission pairs such as the EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and USDJPY. Time frame could be 30 minutes...
The backrest is extremely slow, I believe because it’s not compiled. (Someone could compile it please?)

this being said when I left the computer, starting from 2010, it was not going in the right direction. It is now in July 2011 and the equity is down to 2700 from the initial 10000$. My backtest is with a 500:1 leverage.
  • #37
  • Sep 18, 2020 12:14pm Sep 18, 2020 12:14pm
Quoting Mtlguy
{quote} The backrest is extremely slow, I believe because it’s not compiled. (Someone could compile it please?) this being said when I left the computer, starting from 2010, it was not going in the right direction. It is now in July 2011 and the equity is down to 2700 from the initial 10000$. My backtest is with a 500:1 leverage.



The experience I shared at the beginning of this thread was never even considered, and it's ok. I know what it is to be blindly excited about a strategy. I hope at last someone here will consider at least your words and do some objective work BEFORE sharing some temporary wins giving false hope, bringing more people in to make money with this, then lose it, and perhaps lose even more.

Thank you Mtlguy.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #38
  • Sep 18, 2020 1:10pm Sep 18, 2020 1:10pm
It is still going now January 2012.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #39
  • Sep 19, 2020 12:49am Sep 19, 2020 12:49am
In the long run, I also had it losing money. This is exactly the problem I wanted to show you guys, and the reason i created this EA, to really know that in the long run it worked well. So if it does work well, we can figure out a problem with the EA I posted and see how to make it work. All Videos regarding this strategy had such promising results, so it really confuses me on whats the issue. I agree, the EA does take some false entries, eg. The EA right now takes the trade, if the EA crosses even though the Candle which causes the MACD to cross is still active. This is something I have noticed which causes false entries. Havent come across any other error as such as of this moment.
  • #40
  • Sep 19, 2020 1:40am Sep 19, 2020 1:40am
Quoting Mtlguy
It is still going now January 2012. {image}
Hi Mtlguy, could you be so kind to share the full results of your backtest (with statistical information). I am very curious about the winrate (although it won’t come close to what we hoped to see) and the maximum consecutive losses.
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