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  • #161
  • Sep 17, 2020 5:29am Sep 17, 2020 5:29am
TRADE: New, small position
GBPUSD short, target 1.29, 1.2850

GBPUSD trying up to test 1.30 for the 2nd time this two days.
Will attempt to short to test 1.29 and the 10th June high 1.2820.
Am aware of BOE later, that might push GBPUSD up. Will short more, depending, if it spikes up.

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  • #162
  • Sep 17, 2020 6:22am Sep 17, 2020 6:22am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
TRADE: New, small position GBPUSD short, target 1.29, 1.2850 GBPUSD trying up to test 1.30 for the 2nd time this two days. Will attempt to short to test 1.29 and the 10th June high 1.2820. Am aware of BOE later, that might push GBPUSD up. Will short more, depending, if it spikes up. {image}{image}
TRADE UPDATE
GBPUSD short, hit 1st target and close half for +75 pips, SL adjusted to protect 40 pips for remainder.
GBPJPY Long, target 135.50 and 136.

GBPJPY looks like a good Long as it reached psychological 135 price, and its also a confluence of peaks.
See this weekly chart, all the way from 2017. See price at 135.
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It is very strange to trade GBPUSD short and GBPJPY long AT THE SAME TIME.
Hence will have very small targets with tight stoploss.
  • #163
  • Sep 17, 2020 7:15am Sep 17, 2020 7:15am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} TRADE UPDATE GBPUSD short, hit 1st target and close half for +75 pips, SL adjusted to protect 40 pips for remainder. GBPJPY Long, target 135.50 and 136. GBPJPY looks like a good Long as it reached psychological 135 price, and its also a confluence of peaks. See this weekly chart, all the way from 2017. See price at 135. {image} It is very strange to trade GBPUSD short and GBPJPY long AT THE SAME TIME. Hence will have very small targets with tight stoploss.

TRADE UPDATE:
EURJPY Long, new
EURUSD Long, new
GBPUSD short, closed remainder for +110 pips when nears target, which is the neckline (1.2866) of mini double bottom of 11th-12th Sep.
GBPJPY Long, still active, but -30 pips.


Now with GBPUSD short no longer in picture....please rise, please also help GBPJPY to rise..... and all other Majors, for just a bit.

GBPUSD.
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  • #164
  • Sep 17, 2020 8:37am Sep 17, 2020 8:37am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} TRADE UPDATE: EURJPY Long, new EURUSD Long, new GBPUSD short, closed remainder for +110 pips when nears target, which is the neckline (1.2866) of mini double bottom of 11th-12th Sep. GBPJPY Long, still active, but -30 pips. Now with GBPUSD short no longer in picture....please rise, please also help GBPJPY to rise..... and all other Majors, for just a bit. GBPUSD. {image}
TRADE UPDATE:
CADJPY Long, new, target 80 figure.
EURJPY Long, still active, -20 pips
EURUSD Long, still active, -10 pips
GBPJPY Long, still active, -30 pips.

CADJPY touched rising line that begins from March2020. Taking a risk to expect a bounce. Will close if it breaks below rising line.
Compared to other Yen pairs, CADJPY did not make new Yearly high in Sep. It peaked in at 84.50 in Jan2020, later on plunged because of COVID19, and now still below Jan2020.
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  • #165
  • Sep 17, 2020 9:35am Sep 17, 2020 9:35am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} TRADE UPDATE: CADJPY Long, new, target 80 figure. EURJPY Long, still active, -20 pips EURUSD Long, still active, -10 pips GBPJPY Long, still active, -30 pips. CADJPY touched rising line that begins from March2020. Taking a risk to expect a bounce. Will close if it breaks below rising line. Compared to other Yen pairs, CADJPY did not make new Yearly high in Sep. It peaked in at 84.50 in Jan2020, later on plunged because of COVID19, and now still below Jan2020. {image}
TRADE UPDATE:
CADJPY Long, closed for +20 pips
EURJPY Long, closed for +5 pips
EURUSD Long, closed for zero
GBPJPY Long, closed for +10 pips.

US open, and did not provide the necessary up-lift.
In fact, it seems traders are still thinking about yesterday FOMC, and started to sell.
Stocks are generally down for all sessions today.

The general mood is that FOMC did not offer anything new. Yes, low rates for extended periods, so what's new?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/st...?mod=home-page

The 2 voting members who disagree with the details of the FOMC statement also affects. Some are secretly eager to rise rates, I guess.
  • #166
  • Edited 7:22pm Sep 17, 2020 6:44pm | Edited 7:22pm
Good morning Asia! No trades yet.
Today is Friday, events calendar for today is light.
The market as a whole will unlikely will see any dedication to challenge an critical level (e.g 2020 high, critical trend-reversing supports)
Sometimes it because market is anticipating the next few sessions.

Next week, at a glance, 1st Tier only. (This is Forex Factory's own amazing calendar. Can do filtering)
Of course at times the 2nd-tier is also market moving.
So, next Monday, Tuesday is JPY bank holiday......
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In addition, today is Quad Witch day, and next Fri is Quarterly-end flows, which will increase volume, increase whipsaw but not really pushing a trend.

It is likely that markets will be stagnant.
Hence should scalp and not aim for longer term trends. No point holding trades over the (unpredictable) weekend.

Will post trades if there is any suitable longer term ones, as the day progress.
If not, will just scalp and not post trades here.
  • #167
  • Sep 18, 2020 4:34am Sep 18, 2020 4:34am
NZDUSD slowly drifts up during Asia, and made a yearly high at London opening!
It peaked by mere 8 pips (to 0.6797), and just 3 pips away from 0.68 figure (but not really a psychological one)
The rejection was mild at 20 pips.
This price is within the zone of major peaks (see weekly chart)

NZDUSD 4hr chart
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NZDUSD Weekly
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Will not trade this just yet.
Next Wednesday is RBNZ rate decision.
  • #168
  • Sep 18, 2020 6:01am Sep 18, 2020 6:01am
USDJPY made testing yearly low.
From a weekly perspective, this 104-105 zone is a strong support.
The big spike down to 101.18 during March 2020, might be a indicator of more dips to come from current/today's price.
It is risky to go Long by anticipate a bounce.
Yet I do not think it is wise to chase strong vertical trend.
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  • #169
  • Sep 20, 2020 1:23am Sep 20, 2020 1:23am
Trade Update & Weekly Analysis:
No trades held over the weekend. I usually try my best not to hold trades over weekends so as to have a peace of mind and focus on other aspects of life.
Last Friday, had done mostly scalps. But wasn’t really successful.
Win some, lose some, and was thankful that the nett result was (tiny, slightly) positive. LOL.

Weekly Analysis (my own persepctive)
It was a week that GBP is (finally) not the star, as the honours goes to USDJPY, followed by NZDUSD the only pair that made effort to create a new yearly high.
FOMC and BOE did not really provide any new in my opinion.

Next week. Calendar. And note that coming Friday is Quad Witch.
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CURRENCY PAIRS SUMMARY
AUDJPY: Broke below rising channel. Next critical support is 75.63, as it would have created a “lower-low”. The 75 figure also attracts. Selling rallies.
AUDUSD: Still above 1-month rising line, bearish if broken. Next resistance is the yearly high and then 0.75 figure. Guessing the top. Affected by the price of iron, gold, and imports into China.

EURJPY: Strong fall broke various supports and firmly created a bearish SHS with neckline at 124.50 zone. Sell rallies to next support at 122.87 (13 Jan peak).
EURUSD: Strong fall broke past 1.1752 and officially technically created a bearish LL-LH as well as a possible bearish SHS neckline at 1.1752. Not yet seen any bearish follow thru, as it is needed to to confidently validate SHS. ECB NATO (no action, talk only) regarding high EURUSD.

GBPJPY: After a big fall from yearly high, now consolidating at 135 -135.80 zone which is a confluence zone of peaks/bottoms (from 2017 onwards). Next support is the 135 figure, but may bounce there.
GBPUSD: Bounce of 1.28 zone (10th June peak) after a big fall from yearly highs, testing 1.30. This bounce seems to create a bearish flag. BREXIT. BREXIT. BREXIT.

NZDJPY: Still supported by 70 figure and consolidating under the yearly high. Next resistance of 73.53 (27Dec peak) is technically critical to the signal end of the mid-term bear trend and may be a magnet. Bearish if sustained below 70 and below 68.75 (20th Aug bottom)
NZDUSD: Made new Yearly high by 8 pips after breaking the previous one made two weeks ago. The previous break of critical resistance 0.6755 (31Dec peak) technically signals end of mid-term bear trend. Next resistance is 0.6969 (5th Dec 2018) and the 70 figure. Needs to fall below 0.6601 for any confidence of Bearish trend. RBNZ researching on negative rates.

USDCHF: Consolidating between 0.90 and 0.92. Traditional safe haven currency but SNB prone to intervention to weaken it.

USDJPY: The two weeks old coiling eventually breakout to the downside, and firmly broke 105 figure. Bearish if it falls below 104. New PM Suga will continue Abenomics.
  • #170
  • Sep 20, 2020 6:35pm Sep 20, 2020 6:35pm
Good Morning Asia! First session of the week! Good Luck!

Trade Update: (new)
GBPUSD short, new, @1.2930, target 1.2815, 1.2750.
I view the fall from Yearly high as impulsive, and the bounce from 1.2762 as corrective as it forms a rising-channel and hence a possible bearish flag.
1.30 zone serves as strong resistance, which was tested many times last Thu/Fri.
There is always possibility that price might continue correction until above 1.30. Will assess to add or close depending on structure.
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  • #171
  • Sep 20, 2020 6:55pm Sep 20, 2020 6:55pm
Quoting OxyGen_FX
Good Morning Asia! First session of the week! Good Luck! Trade Update: (new) GBPUSD short, new, @1.2930, target 1.2815, 1.2750. I view the fall from Yearly high as impulsive, and the bounce from 1.2762 as corrective as it forms a rising-channel and hence a possible bearish flag. 1.30 zone serves as strong resistance, which was tested many times last Thu/Fri. There is always possibility that price might continue correction until above 1.30. Will assess to add or close depending on structure. {image}
Trade Update:
GBPUSD short, @1.2930, target 1.2815, 1.2750.

NZDJPY short, new, at 70.63, target 70, and 68.80.
The fall from yearly high was supported by 70 figure. Had bounce up off 70 twice without any upward push. Bulls might be exhausted. Japan on bank holiday.
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  • #172
  • Sep 20, 2020 7:06pm Sep 20, 2020 7:06pm
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} Trade Update: GBPUSD short, @1.2930, target 1.2815, 1.2750. NZDJPY short, new, at 70.63, target 70, and 68.80. The fall from yearly high was supported by 70 figure. Had bounce up off 70 twice without any upward push. Bulls might be exhausted. Japan on bank holiday. {image}
Trade update:
GBPUSD short, @1.2930, target 1.2815 and 1.2750.
NZDJPY short, @70.63, target 70, and 68.80.

AUDYPY short, new, @76.23, target 75.70 and 75.
The pair has broke below rising channel, and resting at 76.50 zone, which is a confluence of major peaks. Resting-without-bounce at supports might hint at further bull exhaustion other than the breaking of channel. Japan on bank holiday for Monday and Tues.
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I hope these trades work out. I position them with slightly smaller size, before Asia fully opens, as there always exist risk that price will go up further.
  • #173
  • Sep 20, 2020 7:56pm Sep 20, 2020 7:56pm
EURJPY, analysis.
Strong fall broke various supports and firmly created a bearish SHS with neckline at 124.50 zone. Sell rallies to next support at 122.87 (13 Jan peak).
Meanwhile, waiting to see if there is any more upside, and if it does, will need to see if there is any resistance (pun intended) at the SHS neckline, which also coincide with a major peak on 5th June (see yellow arrow)
If price decides to suddenly drop from here, then I just have to let it go. A bit unlikely, as EURUSD seems bullish.
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EURUSD, analysis
Strong fall broke past 1.1752 and officially technically created a bearish Lower-Low and Lower-High as well as a possible bearish Shoulder-Head-Shoulder with neckline at 1.1752. Not yet seen any bearish follow thru, as it is needed to confidently validate SHS. If not, the neckline will morph to become a strong support instead. Hence when playing "break-outs", it is always important to wait for confirmation.
If EU so decides to rise, it may drag EURJPY up further hence dampen any bear trading potential.
As EU have had a strong rally since March, I do not feel comfortable going LONG.
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  • #174
  • Sep 21, 2020 2:45am Sep 21, 2020 2:45am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} Trade update: GBPUSD short, @1.2930, target 1.2815 and 1.2750. NZDJPY short, @70.63, target 70, and 68.80. AUDYPY short, new, @76.23, target 75.70 and 75. The pair has broke below rising channel, and resting at 76.50 zone, which is a confluence of major peaks. Resting-without-bounce at supports might hint at further bull exhaustion other than the breaking of channel. Japan on bank holiday for Monday and Tues. {image} I hope these trades work out. I position them with slightly smaller size, before Asia fully opens, as there always exist risk...
Trade update:
AUDYPY short, @76.23, target 75.70 and 75
GBPUSD short, @1.2930, target 1.2815 and 1.2750.
NZDJPY short, @70.63, target 70, and 68.80.

AUDUSD short, new, @0.7310, target 0.7250 and 0.7200
Still above 1-month rising line, bearish if broken. Next resistance is the yearly high and then 0.75 figure. Guessing the top. Affected by the price of iron, gold, and imports into China.
Hence technically, it has NOT yet broke the rising line. OK, I am just guessing the top, as price seemed to have stagnant below the Yearly high, and forming a small and slight-rising channel since 9th Sep, and that it has briefly break below line on 8th which is like a premonition of some sort I believe.
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EURUSD short, new, @1.1851, target 1.1800 and 1.1750 (neckline of SHS).
This is a small position, as I am shorting from the center of the consolidation, which is risky. One should either sell-at-high or buy-at-low with tight stoploss when playing a consolidation.
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  • #175
  • Sep 21, 2020 3:34am Sep 21, 2020 3:34am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} Trade update: AUDYPY short, @76.23, target 75.70 and 75 GBPUSD short, @1.2930, target 1.2815 and 1.2750. NZDJPY short, @70.63, target 70, and 68.80. AUDUSD short, new, @0.7310, target 0.7250 and 0.7200 Still above 1-month rising line, bearish if broken. Next resistance is the yearly high and then 0.75 figure. Guessing the top. Affected by the price of iron, gold, and imports into China. Hence technically, it has NOT yet broke the rising line. OK, I am just guessing the top, as price seemed to have stagnant below the Yearly high, and forming...
Trade update:
AUDYPY short, @76.23, target 75.70 and 75. Now +45 pips
AUDUSD short, @0.7310, target 0.7250 and 0.7200. Now + 30 pips
EURUSD short, @1.1851, target 1.1800 and 1.1750. Now + 40 pips
GBPUSD short, @1.2930, target 1.2815 and 1.2750. Now + 75 pips
NZDJPY short, @70.63, target 70, and 68.80. Now + 50 pips.

Please refer to previous post for trade entry rationale.
Looks very professional, but frankly, luck is involved, not gonna sugar coat it.

Broad base risk off come London opening.
From MarketWatch website says: European bank stocks slide after money-laundering allegations; Dow futures drop 300 points.
  • #176
  • Sep 21, 2020 4:31am Sep 21, 2020 4:31am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} Trade update: AUDYPY short, @76.23, target 75.70 and 75. Now +45 pips AUDUSD short, @0.7310, target 0.7250 and 0.7200. Now + 30 pips EURUSD short, @1.1851, target 1.1800 and 1.1750. Now + 40 pips GBPUSD short, @1.2930, target 1.2815 and 1.2750. Now + 75 pips NZDJPY short, @70.63, target 70, and 68.80. Now + 50 pips. Please refer to previous post for trade entry rationale. Looks very professional, but frankly, luck is involved, not gonna sugar coat it. Broad base risk off come London opening. From MarketWatch website says: European bank stocks...
Trade update:
AUDYPY short, @76.23, target 75.70 and 75. Now +45 pips
AUDUSD short, @0.7310, target 0.7250 and 0.7200. Now + 30 pips
EURUSD short, @1.1851, close half for +51 pips when hit target 1.1800. Next target 1.1750.
GBPUSD short, @1.2930, target 1.2815 and 1.2750. Now + 75 pips
NZDJPY short, @70.63, close half for + 57 pips when near target 70. Next target 68.80.

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  • #177
  • Sep 21, 2020 4:44am Sep 21, 2020 4:44am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} Trade update: AUDYPY short, @76.23, target 75.70 and 75. Now +45 pips AUDUSD short, @0.7310, target 0.7250 and 0.7200. Now + 30 pips EURUSD short, @1.1851, close half for +51 pips when hit target 1.1800. Next target 1.1750. GBPUSD short, @1.2930, target 1.2815 and 1.2750. Now + 75 pips NZDJPY short, @70.63, close half for + 57 pips when near target 70. Next target 68.80. {image} {image}
Trade update:
AUDYPY short, @76.23, closed half for +53 pips when it hits 1st target of 75.70. Next target 75.00.
AUDUSD short, @0.7310, target 0.7250 and 0.7200. Now + 30 pips
EURUSD short, @1.1851, remainder half, now at + 68 pips. Next target 1.1750.
GBPUSD short, @1.2930, target 1.2815 and 1.2750. Now + 75 pips
NZDJPY short, @70.63, remainder half, now at +65 pips. Next target 68.80.

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  • #178
  • Sep 21, 2020 7:59am Sep 21, 2020 7:59am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} Trade update: AUDYPY short, @76.23, closed half for +53 pips when it hits 1st target of 75.70. Next target 75.00. AUDUSD short, @0.7310, target 0.7250 and 0.7200. Now + 30 pips EURUSD short, @1.1851, remainder half, now at + 68 pips. Next target 1.1750. GBPUSD short, @1.2930, target 1.2815 and 1.2750. Now + 75 pips NZDJPY short, @70.63, remainder half, now at +65 pips. Next target 68.80. {image}
Trade update:
AUDYPY short, @76.23, remainder half still active, now +80 pips. Next target 75.00.
AUDUSD short, @0.7310, closed half for +60 pips when hit 1st target of 0.7250. Next target 0.7200.
EURUSD short, @1.1851, remainder half still active, now at + 85 pips. Next target 1.1750.
GBPUSD short, @1.2930, target 1.2815 and 1.2750. Now + 90 pips
NZDJPY short, @70.63, remainder half still active, now at +95 pips. Next target 68.80.

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All the above positions are still active.
Some positions closed half when hit 1st target. The remainder half, stoploss is adjusted to lock in some gains.

At time of writing, all the European stock index are down at least -3%.
  • #179
  • Sep 21, 2020 8:09am Sep 21, 2020 8:09am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} Trade update: AUDYPY short, @76.23, remainder half still active, now +80 pips. Next target 75.00. AUDUSD short, @0.7310, closed half for +60 pips when hit 1st target of 0.7250. Next target 0.7200. EURUSD short, @1.1851, remainder half still active, now at + 85 pips. Next target 1.1750. GBPUSD short, @1.2930, target 1.2815 and 1.2750. Now + 90 pips NZDJPY short, @70.63, remainder half still active, now at +95 pips. Next target 68.80. {image} All the above positions are still active. Some positions closed half when hit 1st target. The remainder...
Trade update:
AUDYPY short, @76.23, remainder half still active, now +80 pips. Next target 75.00.
AUDUSD short, @0.7310, closed half for +60 pips when hit 1st target of 0.7250. Next target 0.7200.
EURUSD short, closed remainder half for +75 pips. It is only 20 pips away from 2nd target of 1.1750.
GBPUSD short, @1.2930, target 1.2815 and 1.2750. Now + 90 pips
NZDJPY short, @70.63, remainder half still active, now at +95 pips. Next target 68.80.

When NY session opens and if prices decided to reverse up, will manually close all.
I am not a purist. Just take what I got and give nothing back.
  • #180
  • Sep 21, 2020 8:17am Sep 21, 2020 8:17am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} Trade update: AUDYPY short, @76.23, remainder half still active, now +80 pips. Next target 75.00. AUDUSD short, @0.7310, closed half for +60 pips when hit 1st target of 0.7250. Next target 0.7200. EURUSD short, closed remainder half for +75 pips. It is only 20 pips away from 2nd target of 1.1750. GBPUSD short, @1.2930, target 1.2815 and 1.2750. Now + 90 pips NZDJPY short, @70.63, remainder half still active, now at +95 pips. Next target 68.80. When NY session opens and if prices decided to reverse up, will manually close all. I am not a...
Trade update:
AUDYPY short, @76.23, remainder half still active, now +80 pips. Next target 75.00.
AUDUSD short, @0.7310, closed half for +60 pips when hit 1st target of 0.7250. Next target 0.7200.
GBPUSD short, @1.2930, close half now for +100 pips as it nears 1st target. Next target 1.2750.
NZDJPY short, @70.63, remainder half still active, now at +95 pips. Next target 68.80.

When NY session opens and if prices decided to reverse up, will manually close all.
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