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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #7,921
  • Sep 15, 2020 3:21pm Sep 15, 2020 3:21pm
Below is my longer term EURUSD picture showing the small one lot Long Only Open Interest (what I call the "smart money" tongue in cheek). We are at the same exposure levels as at the top in 2018 with a very similar multiple topping pattern. It's early days but in the meantime I like any "sell the rally" strategies and will go with the momentum if 1.1740 breaks. Hopefully after a decent break there will be a retracement which will set up an even stronger sell.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.PNG Size: 90 KB
  • #7,922
  • Sep 15, 2020 7:51pm Sep 15, 2020 7:51pm
Quoting shahab8b
EURJPY, possible H&Sh?? {image}
EURJPY, possible H&Sh, neckline @ 124.50
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYDaily 915.png Size: 36 KB
  • #7,923
  • Sep 16, 2020 5:41am Sep 16, 2020 5:41am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GU, long trade, sl to b/e, tp 50% ret of the drop {image}
GU, long trade, still rising in a channel, possible short setup coming up @ 1.30-1.3035 R zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM30 9162020.png Size: 48 KB
  • #7,924
  • Sep 16, 2020 5:56am Sep 16, 2020 5:56am
Quoting shahab8b
USDJPY, coiling for a possible breakout. I remain bearish against 106.50 {image}
USDJPY, my favorite trade, it's been very clear so far, tp@ 101.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4 916.png Size: 34 KB
  • #7,925
  • Sep 16, 2020 6:02am Sep 16, 2020 6:02am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EU, H1 {image}
EU, choppy price action, it's good for scalping.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 915 2022.PNG Size: 140 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 916.PNG Size: 84 KB
  • #7,926
  • Sep 16, 2020 6:09am Sep 16, 2020 6:09am
Quoting shahab8b
AU, I've noticed this structure on H4. lets see how it develops {image}
AUDUSD, long trade. Possibe short setup @ 0.74-0.7410
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1 916.png Size: 43 KB
  • #7,927
  • Sep 16, 2020 6:56am Sep 16, 2020 6:56am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GU, long trade, still rising in a channel, possible short setup coming up @ 1.30-1.3035 R zone. {image}
GU, with the current count, abc correction can end somewhere below 1.3035. R zone @ 1.30-1.3035 might provide a short setup
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM30 916 20209.png Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: abc guidline.PNG Size: 94 KB
  • #7,928
  • Sep 16, 2020 7:17am Sep 16, 2020 7:17am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GU, with the current count, abc correction can end somewhere below 1.3035. R zone @ 1.30-1.3035 might provide a short setup {image} {image}
GU, watch pa in that box
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 916 box.PNG Size: 94 KB
  • #7,929
  • Sep 16, 2020 7:28am Sep 16, 2020 7:28am
Quoting shahab8b
EURGBP, daily, let's see the close {image}
EURGBP, almost there, possible long setup @ 0.91
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPH1 916.png Size: 40 KB
  • #7,930
  • Sep 16, 2020 7:54am Sep 16, 2020 7:54am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EU, H1 {image}
EU, short trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM15 9162.png Size: 39 KB
  • #7,931
  • Sep 16, 2020 8:09am Sep 16, 2020 8:09am
Quoting shahab8b
USDJPY, coiling for a possible breakout. I remain bearish against 106.50 {image}
USDJPY, short trade, I've been tracking this triangle for weeks now. it will look better if daily closes below that TL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYDaily 916 90.png Size: 37 KB
  • #7,932
  • Sep 16, 2020 8:28am Sep 16, 2020 8:28am
Quoting shahab8b
EURJPY, possible H&Sh?? {image}
EURJPY, short trade, H&Sh pattern.

"Chart pattenrs are like beautiful women, classic cars, and great art- you know them when you see them"- Jeffrey Kennedy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYDaily 916 2020.png Size: 38 KB
  • #7,933
  • Sep 16, 2020 9:23am Sep 16, 2020 9:23am
SPY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPY 916.PNG Size: 79 KB
  • #7,934
  • Sep 16, 2020 9:35am Sep 16, 2020 9:35am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EU, H1 {image}
EURUSD, short trade, I took this trade as a scalp, but I'm gonna hold it. looking at the EJ that broke below 124.50 H&Sh neckline, this pair might have more room to the downside.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30 916.png Size: 40 KB
  • #7,935
  • Sep 16, 2020 10:10am Sep 16, 2020 10:10am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GU, with the current count, abc correction can end somewhere below 1.3035. R zone @ 1.30-1.3035 might provide a short setup {image} {image}
GU, in a perfect world, you want to see something like this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 916 2020.PNG Size: 81 KB
  • #7,936
  • Sep 16, 2020 10:33am Sep 16, 2020 10:33am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURGBP, almost there, possible long setup @ 0.91 {image}
EURGBP, target reached. went long, need a little move upside so I can move sl to /be
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPH1 916 202021.png Size: 43 KB
  • #7,937
  • Sep 16, 2020 10:41am Sep 16, 2020 10:41am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD, short trade, I took this trade as a scalp, but I'm gonna hold it. looking at the EJ that broke below 124.50 H&Sh neckline, this pair might have more room to the downside. {image}
Your entire chart may be a large H&S pattern with a final target of 115+ which is more or less where I think EU may be going in order to test the multi year trendline from the back side. (see below)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD,Weekly.png Size: 584 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,938
  • Sep 16, 2020 10:56am Sep 16, 2020 10:56am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} Your entire chart may be a large H&S pattern with a final target of 115+ which is more or less where I think EU may be going in order to test the multi year trendline from the back side. (see below) {image}
Thanks Alorente.
I was suspecting that EU might be making a complex H&Sh pattern https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post13162636
I think the S zone @ 1.1750 - 1.17 is the key
  • #7,939
  • Sep 16, 2020 11:02am Sep 16, 2020 11:02am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Thanks Alorente. I was suspecting that EU might be making a complex H&Sh pattern https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post13162636 I think the S zone @ 1.1750 - 1.17 is the key
That is certainly a possibility, though I prefer to ignore the outermost left shoulder and use the neckline at 1.1753.

Please call me Al. Thanks.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,940
  • Sep 16, 2020 12:41pm Sep 16, 2020 12:41pm
The SW zone still holding for now. i will wait for PA before i act.. Just a matter of time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot at Sep 16 17-34-33.png Size: 129 KB
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