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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #1,021
  • Aug 23, 2020 1:38pm Aug 23, 2020 1:38pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Technically, the GBPUSD market is still favourable to bulls. But in the last four weeks, market operation has been largely sideways with the 1.30460/1.31840 zone (magenta) the prevailing range.

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Recent price action on the daily time frame is sideways at a significant horizontal resistance area (magenta). Technically, the area is susceptible to a bearish turnaround. However, we should let the market decide how it handles the area before taking any directional bias.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,022
  • Aug 23, 2020 1:56pm Aug 23, 2020 1:56pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

After the bullish drive in March 2020 of the USDCAD market operation, it has swung southwards since April and remains negatively disposed on the monthly time frame. The interim August candlestick print is presently around the 1.31700 area, which saw a sideways of market operation before the March bullish drive. Technically, the 1.29600 area (light green) is the immediate horizontal support.

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On the weekly time frame, the recent order flow favours bears. Technically, market operation is disposed southward towards completing an extended ‘M’ pattern at the 1.29600 area (light green).

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Technically, price action is grinding slowly southward on the daily time frame. Although there has been an increase in bullish corrective moves, the bearish impulsive continuation is favoured. Last week Tuesday, price action broke below the 1.31870 horizontal support which has held since February 21, 2020. But it has no bearish follow-through as the remaining days of last week saw sideways of price action. The bearish prints last week Thursday and Friday could not match the single bullish print of Wednesday; very much likely we may see a bullish correction or further sideways of price action in the early part of this week before a southward continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily_August 23, 2020.png Size: 40 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,023
  • Edited Aug 30, 2020 1:46am Aug 29, 2020 2:36pm | Edited Aug 30, 2020 1:46am
Presently EURUSD price action is generally in consolidation, GBPUSD has surged positively while USDCAD price action has a bearish mode. I will be posting my weekly technical analyses on AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDCAD before the market opens on Monday.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,024
  • Aug 30, 2020 12:48pm Aug 30, 2020 12:48pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

AUDUSD market operation has been bullish on the monthly time frame since April. Presently, the monthly operation is at the 0.73900 area (purple), which is a horizontal resistance traceable to December 2018.

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After a sideways of four weeks, AUDUSD market operation on the weekly time frame made a bullish run last week towards the 0.73900 multi-year horizontal resistance. The 0.71300 area (light green), which witnessed the recent sideways of market operation, is technically the immediate horizontal support.

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Technically, AUDUSD price action on the daily time frame still favours bulls. A rising trendline (red) was briefly broken down in early August but bulls restored the northward mode in the last four days of last week, with the bullish print of last week Friday closing above the rising trendline (red). From my perspective as a swing trader, technically, it will take a bearish breakdown of the 0.71300 area (light green) on a daily closing basis to violate the bullish market structure.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,025
  • Aug 30, 2020 1:09pm Aug 30, 2020 1:09pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

USDCAD market operation has generally been on a southward mode since April. Presently, on the monthly time frame, it is about 170 pips from the 1.29260 horizontal support area (sandybrown) traceable to January 2020. The area was the origin of the northward drive that culminated in the creation of the multi-year high of 1.46800 in March 2020.

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The market technical structure and order flow context on the weekly time frame favour bears. However, there is a weakening of bearish momentum as market operation gets near the 1.29260 horizontal support area (sandybrown), the origin of a bullish drive several weeks back. Technically, should bears reach the area, it may result in the completion of an extended ‘M’ pattern.

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Price action on the daily time frame is respecting a falling trendline (red) traceable to March 2020. However, the bearish prints are decreasing in size and proportion, which indicates a weakening of the bearish momentum. The 1.29260 area (sandybrown) is the immediate horizontal resistance while the 1.32010 area (blue) is the immediate horizontal resistance. But, technically, the bearish market structure is not likely to be broken until a significant bullish break of the 1.33120/1.33860 zone (magenta) on a daily closing basis.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily_August 30, 2020.png Size: 40 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,026
  • Aug 30, 2020 1:27pm Aug 30, 2020 1:27pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market operation has been bullish for the past three months. On the monthly time frame, market operation is presently around the 1.19030 area. This area is just 150 pips below the 1.20820 horizontal resistance area (magenta) traceable to May 2018.

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On the weekly time frame, after a strong bullish drive traceable to mid-July, EURUSD market operation has turned sideways at the 1.17590/1.19180 zone (sandybrown) in the past four weeks. Nevertheless, technically, bulls are still favoured but the bullish momentum is declining.

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Price action on the daily time frame is technically still supportive of bulls. A rising trendline (red) traceable to May 2020 is still intact. Presently, price action is within a horizontal channel bound by the 1.17590/1.19180 zone (sandybrown). Last week Friday, bulls took price action to the upper boundary of the channel. A decline in bullish mode may see bears effect a downward pressure while a further bullish pressure may see a bullish continuation. At any rate, we should await how the market handles the 1.17590/1.19180 zone (sandybrown) in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily_August 30, 2020.png Size: 42 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,027
  • Aug 30, 2020 1:46pm Aug 30, 2020 1:46pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market operation has been bullish since July and presently the interim candlestick print in August is still bullish. Market operation is presently at the 1.33500 area, which is more than 150 pips below the 1.35100 horizontal resistance area (magenta) traceable to December 2019.

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The order flow context on the weekly time frame favours bulls. Last week, market operation printed a bullish continuation candlestick after consolidating for three weeks at the 1.3000/1.31300 zone (sandybrown). We may see further bullish move towards the 1.35100 horizontal resistance (magenta).

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Technically, price action on the daily time frame favours bulls. It has moved further northward of an outer rising trendline (red) traceable to March 2020 to respect an inner rising trendline (blue) traceable to June 2020. This, technically, indicates an increase in bullish momentum. The immediate significant resistance is around the 1.35100 area (magenta) while the 1.30000 area is the horizontal support.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,028
  • Sep 5, 2020 1:59pm Sep 5, 2020 1:59pm
USDCAD market operation is presently at a technical reaction area, the 1.29650 horizontal support, traceable to the January 2020 bullish swing. The area should be of interest next week. For my next weekly technical outlook, I will be posting on the EURUSD, GBPJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD and XAUUSD.

Stay safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,029
  • Sep 6, 2020 12:24pm Sep 6, 2020 12:24pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

After the relatively big bullish move in July, XAUUSD market operation retraced from the 2075.05 multi-year high it created in August. On the monthly time frame, in August, market operation printed a bearish rejection candlestick from the multi-year high. Presently, the interim September print is around the 1911.40 previous multi-year resistance turned support. Technically, the 1980.60/1911.40 zone (blue) is the prevailing operating zone.

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On the weekly time frame, four weeks ago, a bearish rejection print, in the shape of an engulfing candlestick, signposted the intent of bears to effect a southward market operation. However, this attempt lacked a bearish follow-through as market operation has turned sideways in the past three weeks within the 1980.60/1911.40 zone (blue). Nevertheless, the long lower wick on the bearish candlestick printed four weeks ago indicate the potential for bearish market orders. And we may see further bearish move this week.

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The daily time frame shows a series of Fibonacci retracements of the downward swing from 2075.10 to 1862.40, including 61.8 and 50 Fib retracements. Last Friday, the indecision candlestick printed around the 1947.60 area represented a 38.2 Fib retracement. Technically, we may expect further bearish move in the early part of this week, but we should be wary of a rising trendline (red) traceable to March.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,030
  • Sep 6, 2020 12:44pm Sep 6, 2020 12:44pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

After revisiting the multi-year high created in January 2016 around 1.46670 in March, USDCAD market operation on the monthly time frame has disposed southward. Presently it is near the 1.29270 area, from which it started the bullish run in January that culminated in the bullish high of March. The 1.29270 area is technically the prevailing horizontal support while the 1.33130 area is technically the operating horizontal resistance.

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Technicals still favour bears on the weekly time frame. The order flow context is still supportive of bears while market operation is still respecting a falling trendline (red) traceable to March. However, market operation has entered a congestion area, the 1.33130/1.29270 zone (Sandybrown), and we may see some bullish pullback or a weakness of bearish momentum in the early part of this week.

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Recent price action on the daily time frame consolidated in the 1.30970/1.30160 zone (blue) for three days before a bullish breakout last week Thursday. However, bears effected an opposing move on Friday to restore parity. We should await how price action handles the zone in the early part of this week. While a bullish breakout of the zone is not technically a trend reversal, as the falling trendline (red) is a potential resistance, there is potential for some bullish momentum until technically the 1.33130 horizontal resistance area. A bearish breakdown of the zone will have to significantly breakdown the 1.29270 horizontal support area for a southward continuation to be sustainable.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,031
  • Sep 6, 2020 1:02pm Sep 6, 2020 1:02pm
GBPJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPJPY market operation has been on a positive mode since July after a 3-month sideways that began in April. On the monthly time frame, technically, in January 2018 the market had about 50 Fib retracement of the downward swing from 195.270 (in August 2015) to 124.000 (in October 2016). It witnessed a 38.2 Fib retracement in April 2018, which it maintained and retested for several months. Presently, it is at the 23.6 Fib retracement area, around 141.080, while the 144.340 area (magenta) is technically the prevailing horizontal resistance.

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On the weekly time frame, market operation is disposed northward. Two weeks ago, it broke above the 139.700 upper boundary of a horizontal consolidation. However, last week saw limited bullish follow-through as market operation printed an indecision candlestick. Technically, recent market operation is apparently forming a ‘W’ pattern, with the completion of the outer leg likely to be around the 144.340 area (magenta). Should this be the case, we may see further bullish push this week.

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Price action on the daily time frame still favours bulls. An outer rising trendline (red) traceable to March 2020 is still intact while an inner rising trendline (blue) based on close of recent candlesticks is being respected. However, there is an increase in bearish pressure as price action enters the congestion zone of 141.080/144.340 (magenta). Nevertheless, bulls are still favoured to make further northward push, at least in the early part of this week, and the bullish pinbar printed last week Friday at the 141.080 horizontal support area may be factored into this consideration.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,032
  • Sep 6, 2020 1:18pm Sep 6, 2020 1:18pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

After a relatively strong bullish move in August, this month, GBPUSD market operation inched to the 1.35060 horizontal resistance area (magenta) before seeing some bearish pressure.

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On the weekly time frame, after a strong bullish breakout from a 3-week consolidation two weeks ago, last week, market operation printed a bearish rejection candlestick from around the 1.35060 horizontal resistance area. The area is traceable to December 2019 and susceptible to a bearish turnaround. The 1.30200 area is technically the immediate horizontal support.

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On the daily time frame, despite the technically favorable bullish environment, there is an increase in bearish pressure. For example, an outer rising trendline (red) is intact and an inner rising trendline (blue) is still being respected, but the order flow context is recently seeing an increase in bearish prints. Besides, between Tuesday and Friday last week, price action printed candlesticks that significantly favour bears. However, this does not mean that bears have taken control of the market.

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The H4 time frame shows an increase in bearish pressure recently given the increase in the pullbacks and corrective moves, and the break of a minor rising trendline (black). However, bulls tried to regain market influence on Friday as the last two 4Hr candlesticks were bullish, but they failed to breach the high of the relatively big bearish candlestick preceding them. Nevertheless, this bullish intent indicates that bears are not yet in control of the market. Bulls still have the potential for further northward move. The 1.33560 area, or a retest of the minor rising trendline (black), is a technical target for such bullish move. The 1.30140 area (Sandybrown) is the immediate horizontal support and technically an initial target of bears. I will await what price action does in the early part of this week before making directional commitment.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,033
  • Sep 6, 2020 1:43pm Sep 6, 2020 1:43pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook


After a relatively strong bullish move that started in March, EURUSD market operation on the monthly time frame is presently showing a weakness in its northward push. The bullish print in August is significantly less potent than the one printed in July. This month, market operation inched towards the prevailing horizontal resistance around 1.20810 (magenta) before retracing below it. The 1.15900 area (light green) is technically the next horizontal support on the monthly time frame.

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There has been sideways of market operation on the weekly time frame since the last five weeks, with the 1.17590/1.19120 zone (black) being the operating zone. Two weeks ago, a relatively big bullish candlestick was printed in the zone but last week, bears effected a relatively potent opposing move in the zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price action on the daily time frame has produced topping patterns at a horizontal resistance area that was last visited in mid-May 2018. Nevertheless, looking left, it is apparent that the 1.20810 (magenta) is a nearby horizontal resistance that is technically within the reach of bulls. Therefore, we should await what price action does in the early part of this week. Technically, a southward turnaround is imminent.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily_September 6, 2020.png Size: 44 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,034
  • Sep 12, 2020 2:15pm Sep 12, 2020 2:15pm
The XAUUSD market is interesting. Presently it is in sideways mode and I will be tracking it next week. I will be posting my weekly technical perspective on the following by market open on Monday: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD and XAUUSD.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,035
  • Sep 13, 2020 12:47pm Sep 13, 2020 12:47pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

Two weeks ago, USDCAD market operation entered the 1.30420/1.29000 horizontal support area (Sandybrown) that has held for several times in the past and which was last visited in December 2019. Last week, a bullish rejection candlestick was printed just above the zone and surged towards the 1.33050 horizontal resistance area (magenta) but failed to breach it before being resisted by bears, leaving an upper shadow. While the 1.33050/1.34020 area is the next horizontal resistance, the 1.30420/1.29000 area is the operating horizontal support. Technically, an incipient upward leg of an ‘M’ pattern began with the December 2019 bullish market operation and the completion downleg is presently around 1.30420. Any bullish pullback to the 1.33050/1.34020 area is technically a retest of the neckline of the ‘M’ pattern, which will likely give way to a bearish turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Two parallel falling trendlines (red) traceable to March 18, 2020 provide a falling channel for corrective retracement of the USDCAD price action which is generally grinding southward on the daily time frame. Last week Tuesday, price action printed a bullish candlestick that surged to within the channel, but the bearish print of Wednesday took price action back below the channel. The bullish candlestick printed on Thursday was relatively smaller than the bearish print of Wednesday and failed to enter the channel, while the Friday print was an ambivalent candlestick. Apparently, there is limited bullish for a sustainable northward drive and any further bullish price action is likely to be temporary in nature. The 1.33050 area (magenta) is the immediate horizontal resistance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A bearish flag (blue) is apparent on the USDCAD H4 time frame. Technically, a breakdown of such a pattern will likely lead to a southward continuation. Presently, price action is sideways within the lower part of the pattern. Personally, I will await how price action handles the pattern.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH4_September 13, 2020.png Size: 48 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,036
  • Sep 13, 2020 1:06pm Sep 13, 2020 1:06pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

XAUUSD technicals on the weekly time frame, e.g. two rising trendlines – outer (red) and inner (blue), and the order flow context support bulls. However, the sideways and ‘wicky’ market operation at the 1908.50/1990.00 prevailing horizontal resistance zone (magenta) indicate an increase in bearish pressure and a weakening of bullish momentum. Nevertheless, as the zone is wide, it affords potential opportunities for feasible trading setups in either direction. At any rate, it is important to consider the prevailing momentum on a lower time frame for effective timing of market entry.

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On the daily time frame, price action is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle. Technically, we may see a breakout on either side, but recent technical prints indicate a weakness in bullish influence and we may see bears seize the initiative in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The H4 time frame shows a series of Fibonacci retracements from the downward swing of 2055.20 to 1864.45, with the 78.6, 61.8 and 50 Fib levels already rejected. Presently, price action is at the 38.2 Fib level, where it turned sideways last week Friday. We may see a rejection of the area in the early part of this week. The 1908.50 area is the next horizontal support and technically an initial target of any bearish move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,037
  • Sep 13, 2020 1:34pm Sep 13, 2020 1:34pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market operation is presently sideways at the 1.17820/1.19250 horizontal resistance zone (magenta) from where it restored a southward drop in September 2018.

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The EURUSD market operation is sideways on the weekly time frame at the 1.17820/1.19250 horizontal resistance zone (magenta) traceable to September 2018. The candlestick prints in the past three weeks point to an increase in bearish pressure and, technically, with a potential for a southward turnaround. The 1.15100/1.14100 zone (Sandybrown) is a significant horizontal support on the weekly time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, last week Tuesday, a bearish price action attempted a break below a rising trendline (blue) traceable to May 2020 but failed. During the remaining days of last week, bulls resisted the bearish influence and kept the rising trendline intact. However, the ‘wicky’ nature of the candlestick prints indicate a weakness in bullish momentum. Although the technical market structure still favours bulls, a significant bearish breakdown of the rising trendline (blue) on a daily closing basis will signpost the intent of bears to effect a southward drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price action on the H4 time frame is presently disposed northward within the 1.17820/1.19250 horizontal resistance zone (magenta). The last H4-candlestick print on Friday attempted a retest of its upper boundary near 1.19250. Technically, bulls are still favoured and we may see a retest of the 1.20000 area (purple) before a southward turnaround. The area is traceable to May 2018 and is an extension of the operating horizontal resistance zone.

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As a swing trader, I will await a potentially feasible bearish setup on a daily closing basis at an area of value.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,038
  • Sep 13, 2020 1:44pm Sep 13, 2020 1:44pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPUSD market operation is southward on the monthly time frame having retested a falling trendline (red) in August and a previous horizontal resistance around 1.34500 (blue). Technically, the 1.25200 area (purple) is the operating horizontal support on the monthly time frame.

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An evening star formation can be seen on the GBPUSD weekly time frame. The relatively big bearish continuation candlestick printed last week signposts the intention of bears to advance a southward drive. Presently, market operation is at the 1.27950 intermediate horizontal support area and we may experience some sideways or a brief retracement before a southward continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The order flow context on the daily time frame presently favours bears more than bulls. Apart from the possible corrective northward retracement or sideways we may see in the early part of this week, bears have the potential to drive price action further southward. The 1.26200/1.25200 zone (Sandybrown) is the next horizontal support on the daily time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily_September 13, 2020.png Size: 40 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,039
  • Sep 14, 2020 2:55pm Sep 14, 2020 2:55pm
As from this week, I will try to share a mid-week technical viewpoint on some of the pairs I am tracking. It may include an update on the weekly technical outlook I post at the beginning of the week. Want to share yours too? Feel welcome and encouraged to do so here.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,040
  • Sep 16, 2020 6:57am Sep 16, 2020 6:57am
Here's a mid-week technical update on the EURUSD. The price action on the D1 tf is still within the 1.17820/1.19250 horizontal resistance zone but since Monday, the sideways has been at a confined, narrower area (1.18290/1.18960). Technically bulls are still favoured but there is increasing bearish pressure and we may see further sideways.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The EURUSD market operation is presently sideways at the 1.17820/1.19250 horizontal resistance zone (magenta) from where it restored a southward drop in September 2018. {image} The EURUSD market operation is sideways on the weekly time frame at the 1.17820/1.19250 horizontal resistance zone (magenta) traceable to September 2018. The candlestick prints in the past three weeks point to an increase in bearish pressure and, technically, with a potential for a southward turnaround. The 1.15100/1.14100 zone (Sandybrown)...
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