MACD +60% Winrate 1:1.5 RR | Forex Factory

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MACD +60% Winrate 1:1.5 RR

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 14, 2020 6:58am Sep 14, 2020 6:58am
Here is a Simple and reliable MACD Strategy tested 100 TIMES and results on EURJPY 30min TM showed 62% winrate with 1:1.5 Risk Reward.

Buy:

-Market above 200 EMA
-MACD line must cross signal line upward when is BELOW 0 line.

Sell:

-Market below 200 EMA
-MACD signal must cross downward when is ABOVE 0 line.

SL:
-Stop is above/below last fractal

TP:
-Target is 1.5x risk

Additional:
-Stop Loss at BE when 1:1 reached.

This strategy is from TRADINGRUSH Channel and credit is to him who tested it 100 times as refereed in the video below

Inserted Video


All the best and comments are very welcome. Also someone developing an EA would be great
  • #2
  • Sep 14, 2020 8:36am Sep 14, 2020 8:36am
Fake. Win trade will gain 143$ -spread, not 150$. Loss trade will gain at least -107$ +spread, not 100. In very best situation this will be 115/135 which is not 1:1.5. In real life it will be loss in total on long run. Also on video he was trading trend. But once market will flat this will ruin all.
Observer effect
  • #3
  • Sep 14, 2020 8:46am Sep 14, 2020 8:46am
Quoting ryuryu
Fake. Win trade will gain 143$ -spread, not 150$. Loss trade will gain at least -107$ +spread, not 100. In very best situation this will be 115/135 which is not 1:1.5. In real life it will be loss in total on long run. Also on video he was trading trend. But once market will flat this will ruin all.
When we are backtesting, we always assume zero spread and commissions, because they normally amount to only 1 Pip eg EU pair, commission is $7 on a full lot which is equal to 0.7x of a PIP, spread is usually 0-0.3 pips. So your analysis is wrong
  • #4
  • Sep 14, 2020 9:02am Sep 14, 2020 9:02am
Why you can't backtest with commissions and spreads? What is the purpose to test with wrong data? This strategy will gain loss. You can create a simple EA to check this out.
Observer effect
  • #5
  • Sep 14, 2020 9:17am Sep 14, 2020 9:17am
Quoting ryuryu
Why you can't backtest with commissions and spreads? What is the purpose to test with wrong data? This strategy will gain loss. You can create a simple EA to check this out.
Kindly help us develop the simple EA to enable us to backtest the strategy so that we know for sure if it works
  • #6
  • Sep 14, 2020 2:52pm Sep 14, 2020 2:52pm
I am doing some backtest and so far so good. am on the 10th trade

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7
  • Sep 14, 2020 3:56pm Sep 14, 2020 3:56pm
Total: = 14 Trades
Wins: = 10 Wins
Losses: = 4 Loses
RR = 1:1.5
Pair EURJPY
TF: 30M
WinRate: 71.4%
Period tested (20th July - 14th Sept)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8
  • Sep 15, 2020 8:25am Sep 15, 2020 8:25am
I just backtested the strategy on EURUSD... 13 losses 6 wins. save your money
  • #9
  • Sep 15, 2020 8:29am Sep 15, 2020 8:29am
Quoting moretti12
I just backtested the strategy on EURUSD... 13 losses 6 wins. save your money
Please note that it works differently on different pairs. For example for EURUSD, You can try a different timeframe like 15m etc. However for EURJPY, it seems consistent from way back
  • #10
  • Sep 15, 2020 8:30am Sep 15, 2020 8:30am
Someone should help us develop an ea that can work on any timeframe and we optimize the pairs
  • #11
  • Sep 15, 2020 8:49am Sep 15, 2020 8:49am
Men, you have found a holy grail! You must go to mql5.com freelance (https://www.mql5.com/en/job/new) and ask to create EA for that as soon as possible! It will cost you only 30$! Do you have 30$?
Observer effect
  • #12
  • Sep 15, 2020 10:09am Sep 15, 2020 10:09am
Here is EURUSD results
30M TF
RR: 1:1.5
Period : 14th July - 15th Sept
57% winrate
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13
  • Sep 15, 2020 10:51am Sep 15, 2020 10:51am
can you please share your tpl, I dont know how to set macd for crossover. Thanks in advancwe
  • #14
  • Sep 15, 2020 11:29am Sep 15, 2020 11:29am
use the EA EMA plus MACD for backtest
  • #15
  • Sep 15, 2020 1:01pm Sep 15, 2020 1:01pm
Im sorry to say that have already gone through this years ago. And unfortunately, it is a losing strategy (yes, precisely this macd and ema strat.)on the long term, and there is no way to know when this period of good enough win/loss ratios end before its too late.

And backtesting visually, forget it, good fractals do repaint. The only way to get real results is with a real ea going through 7+years, which I have done years ago and still today the results overall is a loss

I doubt youll take my word for it, but its the truth and thats all the time Ill put into thinking about the hours wasted on such a strategy. Who knows, sometimes people feel it when someone tells the truth, even without going through the trouble to gather long lost proof.

P.S there is an optimized profitable version of this, kind of, but it doesnt give many trades and is not the holy grail.

good luck
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #16
  • Sep 15, 2020 3:27pm Sep 15, 2020 3:27pm
I've backtested this strategy on EJ, EU and AU on 15M TF total with 94 trades win rate is around 52% with 1.5:1 RRR even tried to filter out trades that were not that clear with a rule that 3 candles before the candle where the MACD cross happened can't touch the 200 EMA and still the win rate is about 52%. Also tried to modify it to 1:1 RRR and that produced a 63% win rate but 63% with 1:1 RRR have similar results as 52% with 1.5:1 RRR when it comes to profitability and drawdown so it didn't help the strategy that much. But I will try to take another look at it with another rule that SL will go to BE after 1:1 is hit. If anyone has any other recommendations on how to improve the win rate and try to push to at least to 57% that would be nice.

With regards
Geeze
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  • #17
  • Sep 16, 2020 1:52am Sep 16, 2020 1:52am
Quoting moaaz.mirza
can you please share your tpl, I dont know how to set macd for crossover. Thanks in advancwe
I use trading view macd, it shows crossover automatically. Better still use tradingviews macd strategy that will place the crossover on the chart and you see exact entries. It is alot faster
  • #18
  • Sep 16, 2020 1:55am Sep 16, 2020 1:55am
Quoting mtako
Im sorry to say that have already gone through this years ago. And unfortunately, it is a losing strategy (yes, precisely this macd and ema strat.)on the long term, and there is no way to know when this period of good enough win/loss ratios end before its too late. And backtesting visually, forget it, good fractals do repaint. The only way to get real results is with a real ea going through 7+years, which I have done years ago and still today the results overall is a loss I doubt youll take my word for it, but its the truth and thats...
Please share your EA so that we test it ourselves. From my view, it seems profitable even in the long run since it does not give many signals. Also note that
1. You do not open a new trade when one is still running
2. Ensure the crossover is either above zero macd for sell and below macd for Buy
  • #19
  • Sep 16, 2020 1:56am Sep 16, 2020 1:56am
Quoting Geeze
I've backtested this strategy on EJ, EU and AU on 15M TF total with 94 trades win rate is around 52% with 1.5:1 RRR even tried to filter out trades that were not that clear with a rule that 3 candles before the candle where the MACD cross happened can't touch the 200 EMA and still the win rate is about 52%. Also tried to modify it to 1:1 RRR and that produced a 63% win rate but 63% with 1:1 RRR have similar results as 52% with 1.5:1 RRR when it comes to profitability and drawdown so it didn't help the strategy that much. But I will try to take another...
Which indicator are you using? Or how are you testing? Thanks for the feedback
  • #20
  • Sep 16, 2020 5:01am Sep 16, 2020 5:01am
Quoting ryuryu
Fake. Win trade will gain 143$ -spread, not 150$. Loss trade will gain at least -107$ +spread, not 100. In very best situation this will be 115/135 which is not 1:1.5. In real life it will be loss in total on long run. Also on video he was trading trend. But once market will flat this will ruin all.
Finally someone who talks about spread reality.
Why no one acknowledges the spread distorts the R:R, especially the lower the TF you go.
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