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NFP and rumors around

  • #41
  • Nov 3, 2006 1:04am Nov 3, 2006 1:04am
My first thoughts were, just straddle it with 25-30 TP on each side and play to the probable wipsaw, but, the quote below from an email my broker sent out is practacly SCREAMING straddle it and we're GONNA slip you.

<quote>
Basically, plan on the spreads widening and if you are trading with a Buy or a Sell Stop entry order, do not anticipate being filled at your entry price. You will be filled at the prevailing market price after the release, and this market price could be significantly different from your desired price of your entry order.

I would like to thank you for your continued support and wish you success in your trading.

Best Regards,

Todd B. Crosland
Chairman and President
Interbank FX
<end quote>

I guess it officially time to find a new broker for news trades, I do appriciate their up front approach instead of the usual "you shouda read the fine print"
In the mean time I'm setting a 25-30 pip sell stop incase the European market wants to price in the current estimate and going to bed for a few hours. Come time, I think I'll just trade the fade on this one.

Good Luck To All

JP
Watching the charts like Spock.
  • #42
  • Nov 3, 2006 1:33am Nov 3, 2006 1:33am
The only thing I'm hoping for is that NFP will set the trend for next week. So I'll wait.

Unemployment claims have been low but that doesn't mean companies recruted and ADP has revealed inconsistent in the past.

IMHO trying to guess and take a position before the release is like tossing a coin or gambling so no chance for me.

But from a technical point-of-view, a retrace is overdue for cable and fiber as both are at resistance and Swissie at support and bottom of channel. Any 3 digit number should do the trick.

Regardless I hope it helps clear this period of consolidation...

Happy trading!
  • #43
  • Nov 3, 2006 1:47am Nov 3, 2006 1:47am
hello All ..

Just a questions guys .. How many pips is the WORST whipsaw the NFP had currently ?? And how many are expected with Euro OR POUND ??

Hope everybody do WELL .
  • #44
  • Nov 3, 2006 3:50am Nov 3, 2006 3:50am
Quoting Takisd
This guy has a reason to post this. But his sources suck. And he didn't put together the thread well enough.

IF YOU ARE A GOOD FUNDIE.. thats a big IF.... You would realise that the recent data has indicated that the NFP will be lower. And also you would have known that the last data was changed purely because of elections. It was not real data last time.

A report also came out today that the US is still facing inflation pressure. It only really effected the stock market. I would doubt any big player would enter the market 1 day before nfp with that information.

The fact is. The idiot in post number 2. Yes you are an idiot. Has no right to just jump on some guy who has intent to help. I wouldn't of course base my analysis on someone elses information. And i don't really trade news. But the fact you jumped on him like a cat who hasn't eaten in months, is evidence of desperation. And i find it quite sad that you didn't just ignore him if you didn't like what he was saying.

Good luck in your trading. I know i don't trade nfp days. So I hope you dont get hit too hard by the whipsaw crap.

P.S Technical traders are intelligent. Fundamentalists are not (Just my opinion, argue over that)
Well that's really sweet of you to call me an idiot!

At least I didn't say "his sources suck".

I just happened to be one of the first people to read this guy's post. The intention of my reply was to alert nu bees to the fact that such a claim was far fetched, well suspect at the very least, and should be taken with a large degree of suspicion. He joined within the last few days, it was his first ever post. The internet (even FF) is a virtual reality, anybody can be who every they want to be. Some people get a kick out of being a troll (google internet troll). This guy could be genuine, or he could be a broker trying to create plenty of takers for the other side of his trades (unlikely I know), or anything in between.

Did you read my second post to him / her? I was polite to him throughout, which is more than you could claim to have been.
  • #45
  • Nov 3, 2006 4:02am Nov 3, 2006 4:02am
Quoting merlin
... we dont really get down like that thanks man.
And that's what makes this forum great.
Wrong and messy as I could be (don't trade during newstime tough) I feel more comfortable seing we're on the same side on this one (Usd upside potential on strong release).
QG
  • #46
  • Nov 3, 2006 4:31am Nov 3, 2006 4:31am
TTN just announced that analysts are seeing a worse than expected number something like 99 and if u look at the GBP/USD looks like London think the same.
  • #47
  • Nov 3, 2006 5:05am Nov 3, 2006 5:05am
Data has yet to come, and personally I referred to potential, as such a strong sentiment could mean, but I'm just paraphrasing Merlin, energy from triggering the stops on short USD positions. This in case of an upside surprise.
Btw, I don't feel like talking about fundamentals, there are people whom I use to learn from here.

I have a question. What effect if any (long term) do you think the new proposals for Canadian tax policy could have on USDCAD ?

Quoting www
Until now, trusts were able to avoid most or all corporate tax, allowing them to put more money in the hands of their investors. Their popularity has skyrocketed, but their tax advantage over corporations — as well as concerns over tax leakage — have nagged Canadian governments.

On Tuesday, Ottawa said existing trusts will be taxed like corporations beginning in 2011. Companies that are not yet trusts but convert to one will be taxed like corporations effective in 2007.
QG
  • #48
  • Nov 3, 2006 5:07am Nov 3, 2006 5:07am
many seem to think that any 3digit NFP number will help to bring about the reversal that many - including me - are waiting/hoping for. It is also argued that all technicals point in that direction.

However, it could go either way even from a TA point of view:

  1. yes, we had a hammer and doji on D1 which suggest a reversal
  2. but GBP has decisively broken through a major daily TL already 3/4 days ago
  3. we now have GBP price right at a cross of H4 TLs (so if one tried to trade according to Mouteki it could go either way also
  4. and GBP has worked off the overbought condition on any timeframe

So even TA allows for a further push up to the next level. Conclusion: do not jump to any and be very careful today.

Consistency and patience is everything
  • #49
  • Nov 3, 2006 5:08am Nov 3, 2006 5:08am
i dont want to trade on NFD , but the technical give me ,the signal the sell GBP/USD because of the 2 doji on the top of the daily chart !


http://i12.tinypic.com/2aj0x05.jpg
  • #50
  • Nov 3, 2006 5:09am Nov 3, 2006 5:09am
Quoting gico
TTN just announced that analysts are seeing a worse than expected number something like 99 and if u look at the GBP/USD looks like London think the same.
It doesn't look that way now at 0512 cst.

GBP/USD 1.9072
  • #51
  • Nov 3, 2006 5:11am Nov 3, 2006 5:11am
Adam I completely agree with u but Technical is good till the Fundamentals come.
  • #52
  • Nov 3, 2006 5:22am Nov 3, 2006 5:22am
I don't entirely disagree either and I am keen to sell GBP asap,
BUT I was warning that there is still room upwards even from a TA point of view, so it would be dangerous to jump to conclusions about the way it's gonna go today

Good luck to everyone who is daring to trade NFP today
Consistency and patience is everything
  • #53
  • Nov 3, 2006 5:44am Nov 3, 2006 5:44am
Being the most unpredictible economic indicator, I will expect the unexpected: a lower than 51K and a revision to 70K OR something between 70K and 90K and a downside revision. I saw this charts, and it is easy to notice a "pattern" when NFP make a lower than expected. The next ,month is lower than the previous. But will we see.

http://www.imagecabin.com/?view=1625...1c612797fe86ad
The trend isyour friend untilis about to end...
  • #54
  • Nov 3, 2006 6:03am Nov 3, 2006 6:03am
gpb/usd, eur/usd, usd/chf. haven't made big moves all week, today is the day it all kicks in. so far im looking at buying gbp/usd, eur/usd, and selling usd/chf unless i get a diffrent signal at 8:25am. if im buying and selling those currencies above i will wait till after the first spike gbp/$, eur/$ will go down and $/chf will go up then il hit them with market orders and ride the wave. if im selling gbp, eur, and buying usd, then il put a market order in at 8:29.50am and ride the wave.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #55
  • Nov 3, 2006 6:47am Nov 3, 2006 6:47am
$ Bulls this nite, according to my analysis. I see e/u and g/u going down
  • #56
  • Nov 3, 2006 6:55am Nov 3, 2006 6:55am
To keep FF friends up to date with the latest, the implied forecast from the Economic Derivatives auctions is 102.3 thousand jobs as of the time of writing. I will provide an update some 10 minutes prior to the release.

Personally, I think the USD has more to gain from a stronger report than vice-versa, but I'm going to wait for the data, analyse it and judge whether to trade or not.
"Always bet on black"
  • #57
  • Nov 3, 2006 6:55am Nov 3, 2006 6:55am
30 mins to go from now!! I still keep on thinking and doing some analysis either usd bullish or bearish.

I hope usd bulllllllisssshhhhhhh. UP! UP! UP!

QS
"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
  • #58
  • Nov 3, 2006 7:04am Nov 3, 2006 7:04am

A little bullish preview from Commonwealth research:

The ADP employment report, released Wednesday, showed a net increase in US private-sector jobs of 128K in October (up from 78K in September). Growth in ADP employment report holds a close correlation with growth in non-farm payrolls. While the reports can diverge from month to month, the traditionally close correlation means that the risks lie towards payrolls printing slightly above market expectations (centred on +120K) in October. Other indicators, such as the employment component in the ISM survey and initial jobless claims, have pointed to a solid rebound after the sub-trend outcome of 51K in September. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.6%. The ISM non-manufacturing index is also released in the US today (one and a half hours after payrolls at 15:00 GMT), but we expect the payrolls data to dominate market attention.

I think it's a shame that economic indicators of the services sector don't receive the attention they deserve, as services makes up the bulk of economic activity in UK, US and Europe. There are issues with respect to measuring services activity, but the statisticians would do well to devote time to getting this right, as it should be more important than the manufacturing ISM/PMIs.

"Always bet on black"
  • #59
  • Nov 3, 2006 7:11am Nov 3, 2006 7:11am
15 minutes to the start, and they're off and running. LOL.
  • #60
  • Nov 3, 2006 7:15am Nov 3, 2006 7:15am
Good luck to everyone!
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