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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #7,861
  • Sep 10, 2020 3:32pm Sep 10, 2020 3:32pm
Quoting forda
{quote} I didn't know i can post here (it was blocked for status), pleas check cable thread - there is a question for you. This counting looks good now and i'm looking to take this bounce.
Yes, I've changed the setting per request of other traders.

regarding your question, wave 4 can overlap with wave 1 only in diagonal wave, otherwise, that wave count will require revision.

Also, please dont hold your trades in losses based on this wave count. these things are very subjective. apply proper risk management.
Attached Image
  • #7,862
  • Sep 10, 2020 3:43pm Sep 10, 2020 3:43pm
Understood, thank you.
you can't stop the waves, but you can learn to surf
  • #7,863
  • Edited 5:49pm Sep 10, 2020 5:36pm | Edited 5:49pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} are you referring to Jun high? I have 1.2813 {image}
market is side by at least 3 points failure of that level , including the failure you're looking at.
the wave thats altering the main wave count is 4 as it wasn't long enough ,even Coreg had that count at some time.
4 is the faulty or defective wave ,I was told that should be at least 24% of 3 by someone else .I was expecting that at least at that point, on candle. That's where the first tl was, thats broke already .
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #7,864
  • Sep 10, 2020 6:11pm Sep 10, 2020 6:11pm
Quoting Bones
{image}{image}
$ recovered all its loss from earlier ,all it has to do is close at the top of the range to remain bullish on weekly ,break its down line
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #7,865
  • Sep 10, 2020 6:43pm Sep 10, 2020 6:43pm
this 4 week chart -close tomorrow-is clearer about the level we failed ,side step action
theres no way it can go higher in the next 4 weeks with a candle like that in place, in that location.
More likely lower
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #7,866
  • Sep 11, 2020 6:54am Sep 11, 2020 6:54am
EURUSD, daily remains bullish above 1.1750 and 1.17 S zone.
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  • #7,867
  • Sep 11, 2020 7:16am Sep 11, 2020 7:16am
GBPUSD, currently sitting on the S zone above 1.28. daily remains bearish against 1.3035
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  • #7,868
  • Sep 11, 2020 7:34am Sep 11, 2020 7:34am
GU, H1, looks like a triangle (expanding), can break either way
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  • #7,869
  • Sep 11, 2020 7:45am Sep 11, 2020 7:45am
EU, H1, watching these levels for possible long or short setup
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  • #7,870
  • Sep 11, 2020 7:51am Sep 11, 2020 7:51am
Quoting shahab8b
USDCAD {image}
USDCAD, long trade update, sl to b/e, tp @ 1.35
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Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADM15 911.png Size: 43 KB
  • #7,871
  • Sep 11, 2020 8:28am Sep 11, 2020 8:28am
USDJPY, coiling for a possible breakout. I remain bearish against 106.50
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  • #7,872
  • Sep 11, 2020 8:31am Sep 11, 2020 8:31am
Quoting shahab8b
USDJPY, coiling for a possible breakout. I remain bearish against 106.50 {image}
instead of sticking to GU alone, I now decided to take trades, in EJ, EU, Gold, EG in addition to GU.

This is in my prop. account.

And happy with trades so for.
Intraday only.
  • #7,873
  • Sep 11, 2020 8:40am Sep 11, 2020 8:40am
Quoting navk
{quote} instead of sticking to GU alone, I now decided to take trades, in EJ, EU, Gold, EG in addition to GU. This is in my prop. account. And happy with trades so for.
Yea, it’s good to not limit yourself. It helps with the overall performance. For example, I had losing trades on GU in the last two weeks, but I had several winning traders on EU, UCHF, AU, and UCAD.
  • #7,874
  • Sep 11, 2020 10:19am Sep 11, 2020 10:19am
AU, I've noticed this structure on H4. lets see how it develops
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  • #7,875
  • Sep 11, 2020 10:23am Sep 11, 2020 10:23am
EURGBP, looking at the weekly chart, it seems EUR will over perform GBP in the upcoming weeks.
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  • #7,876
  • Edited 10:53am Sep 11, 2020 10:27am | Edited 10:53am
Quoting shahab8b
GU, H1, looks like a triangle (expanding), can break either way {image}
GU, the expanding triangle pattern is still ongoing, it provides good scalping opportunities.
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  • #7,877
  • Sep 11, 2020 1:07pm Sep 11, 2020 1:07pm
GU, 1.2750-1.28 zone has served as a S/R and a swing level at times. Let's see what happens this time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,878
  • Sep 12, 2020 7:59am Sep 12, 2020 7:59am
Quoting shahab8b
A few notes on GBPUSD positioning. Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC: GBP long 7K vs 3k short last week. Positioned reversed to long. GBP position turned long after being short by 36K at the beginning of June 2020. My observation is that GBPUSD speculative positioning may act as a contrarian indicator, that is in contrast to EURUSD positioning data. Let's see what happens this time. {image}
I posted this COT chart 3 weeks ago saying based on my observation "GBPUSD speculative positioning may act as a contrarian indicator". At the time, the chart did not look bearish at all. Here we are 3 weeks later and GU has dropped 700 pips after topping.
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  • #7,879
  • Sep 12, 2020 8:55am Sep 12, 2020 8:55am
EURUSD, for now daily remains bullish above S zone @ 1.17 and 1.1750. But I'm wondering if a complex H&Sh pattern is in progress.
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  • #7,880
  • Edited 7:03am Sep 13, 2020 5:53am | Edited 7:03am
Playing with the software ,Could be thats a 1 ,which I thought before it started .If it goes up next I think it must be a 2 rather than any abc or other correction.
5 wave down could be a gift to the open gap where this all started.
For it to be a 4 it's too low already and too sharp ?wave 2 could be to do with any resistance from parliament or the lords to the law he's trying to pass breaking treaty already in place, which I think he will win.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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