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NFP and rumors around

  • #21
  • Nov 2, 2006 5:37pm Nov 2, 2006 5:37pm
Im basing it off the higher time frame divergences and looking a retracement move against the main trend... price cant move in a straight line there has to be a retracement unless this thing just shoots straight up to the sky... basically though i was just messing around... ;-) the bullish mometum is there... i just feel its overbought. just my personal views if im wrong so be it. learn and move on.
  • #22
  • Nov 2, 2006 5:39pm Nov 2, 2006 5:39pm
also Ghost in this game i dont pray per se I speculate on where i think price will go, but NFP has a tendency to destroy all... lol
  • #23
  • Nov 2, 2006 5:43pm Nov 2, 2006 5:43pm
and yes Iam positioned short for better or worse i have excepted the outcome that i could be wrong but based on my edge im favoring the short play but in all probabilty there are some very good chances that i might get stopped out, thats ok as long as i followed my game plan.
  • #24
  • Nov 2, 2006 6:20pm Nov 2, 2006 6:20pm
Hi
From my exprience and study NFP today around 105k-120k. 80% i'm confident the figure lower from prediction and whipsaw maby happen like always when actual number lower from prediction, just beware about revision. For this moment I will using this figure in my mind

Now I try contact my secret informer to get NFP figure. If I get early I will inform to all people in this forum and I hope we can make money today

So far My informer information never do mistake when give information and I hope he can get some hint about NFP today

Just waiting maby I will get this information just 1 or 2 hours before the news release..................
  • #25
  • Nov 2, 2006 7:05pm Nov 2, 2006 7:05pm
[quote=Takisd]

IF YOU ARE A GOOD FUNDIE.. thats a big IF.... You would realise that the recent data has indicated that the NFP will be lower. And also you would have known that the last data was changed purely because of elections. It was not real data last time.

A report also came out today that the US is still facing inflation pressure.


What data recently released shows the NFP going to be smaller than anticipated, i am still learning and would appreciate the info, (on my way to becoming a good fundie )
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
  • #26
  • Nov 2, 2006 7:17pm Nov 2, 2006 7:17pm
hi
I was mentioned that figure is my prediction and I will confirm with my secret informer to get the real figure. maby I'm wrong and the actual number will be above 130k. just now i'm still waiting to get hint from my secret informer what figure for NFP.TQ
  • #27
  • Nov 2, 2006 8:17pm Nov 2, 2006 8:17pm
Quoting Takisd
You would realise that the recent data has indicated that the NFP will be lower.
NFP is the very first real data we get for the month of October, so you cant really look at anything other indicators to help predict it. there are a few things, but one of the biggest reasons we have such volatility on NFP is because it is "early" data which can be very hard to predict.

btw, it would be nice if you chill with the name calling, we dont really get down like that thanks man.
Relax and be happy.
  • #28
  • Nov 2, 2006 8:18pm Nov 2, 2006 8:18pm
Quoting zaid
i'm still waiting to get hint from my secret informer what figure for NFP
unless your secret informer works for the bls, he is full of bs
Relax and be happy.
  • #29
  • Nov 2, 2006 8:25pm Nov 2, 2006 8:25pm
btw, the play i am looking at on the NFP is to go long the dollar on a strong report. right now the sentiment is heavily dollar bearish, so a strong report should shake out the recent shorts and cause the long-time shorts to take profit. i dont see any way to play a weak report, because the dollar is already pretty beaten up.
Relax and be happy.
  • #30
  • Nov 2, 2006 9:03pm Nov 2, 2006 9:03pm
Quoting merlin
btw, the play i am looking at on the NFP is to go long the dollar on a strong report. right now the sentiment is heavily dollar bearish, so a strong report should shake out the recent shorts and cause the long-time shorts to take profit. i dont see any way to play a weak report, because the dollar is already pretty beaten up.
I would say that if we have a $+ report, it's gonna move big. We've had days now with bad news and GBP hasn't moved... the market wants to buy the dollar. And it's just itching for good news.
Mr. Trend
  • #31
  • Nov 2, 2006 9:06pm Nov 2, 2006 9:06pm
Quoting FXfetish
Hmmm... a "secret informer." I'm impressed!

But I would suggest that anyone interested in keeping the money that's in their account NOT base their trades on rumours. Especially from mysteriously shady figures in the shadows of a forum post.

Most successful (retail) traders enter trades based on the market's reaction to the news, not on the news itself. Anything else would be foolish and full of folly.

A jobs number over and above the projected amount does not necessarily translate to positive USD price action anyway. When all the data is carefully scrutunized, there could always be something deep in the details that makes price move against the greenback--and quickly--despite the initial outwardly good number.

Be smart, not reckless. Protect your pips. They're precious!


Fiona
I just keep an eye on my dog right before the news release. If he scratches his right ear, I go long.... left ear short. If he doesn't scratch, I don't trade.

Seriously though, good post, Fiona. you're absolutely right.
  • #32
  • Nov 2, 2006 9:29pm Nov 2, 2006 9:29pm
Quoting Mr Trend
I would say that if we have a $+ report, it's gonna move big. We've had days now with bad news and GBP hasn't moved... the market wants to buy the dollar. And it's just itching for good news.
technicals say a dollar bullish as well
Trading is a long and a short story.
  • #33
  • Nov 2, 2006 9:52pm Nov 2, 2006 9:52pm
[quote=4xfox]I just keep an eye on my dog right before the news release. If he scratches his right ear, I go long.... left ear short. If he doesn't scratch, I don't trade.

What would you ..if your dog starts scratching His Balls???...LOL
  • #34
  • Nov 2, 2006 10:14pm Nov 2, 2006 10:14pm
on wednesday we had unemployment claims, which increased more than expectations

non farm productivity declined

employment cost index increased

personal spending decreased

so end result NFP should be far less than expectations
  • #35
  • Nov 2, 2006 10:24pm Nov 2, 2006 10:24pm
[quote=Triger$]
Quoting 4xfox
I just keep an eye on my dog right before the news release. If he scratches his right ear, I go long.... left ear short. If he doesn't scratch, I don't trade.

What would you ..if your dog starts scratching His Balls???...LOL
Hedge.
  • #36
  • Nov 2, 2006 10:41pm Nov 2, 2006 10:41pm
http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/ma...006-11-02.html
"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
  • #37
  • Nov 2, 2006 10:48pm Nov 2, 2006 10:48pm
[quote=Triger$]
Quoting 4xfox
I just keep an eye on my dog right before the news release. If he scratches his right ear, I go long.... left ear short. If he doesn't scratch, I don't trade.

What would you ..if your dog starts scratching His Balls???...LOL

LOL, vey very funny, thank you Triger and 4xfox

I think Doller will be strong agianst others, so I place my Short Order 1.9050 or 1.9030 on cable ( if my technical confirm it)
  • #38
  • Nov 2, 2006 10:50pm Nov 2, 2006 10:50pm
I'll be honest here - I don't do too well whenever I think I know what's going on. (Actually, my wife would probably say that's in anything I do )

Charts man, charts!
  • #39
  • Nov 2, 2006 10:53pm Nov 2, 2006 10:53pm
I will explain my strategy to trade NFP today. I felt free if anyone can give a comment. this info maby not suitable for newbie, you can follw this strategy or you can let it just for knowledge. I will discuss only 1 pair (GBP/USD)

US NFP
Previous : 51k (lowest figure in this year)
Consesus : 130K
Actual : Around 105k-120k (from my calculation)
My secret Informer : I'm still dont have

Long Term Trend for GBP/USD = Bullish (already overbought)

If the actual around 105-120k > market will be reversal because longterm already overbought and price will be move around 80-150 pips. I'm still believe this will be happen today

If the actual number Above 130k > the chances for this moment is too slim or only 10%. if this happen (I hope so) for some reason, gbp/usd will move down 120-200 pips. just hold your position and look at 5 minute candlestick
and use MA 10 and 20 and when the line MA 10 cross over MA 20 close your position.

if the actual number around 60-80k > I hope this cannot happen because market will be no stable, whipsaw maby happen like last month. let say the price 1.9075 before news release the price maby will be spike to go down and a few second later the price will be go up, if the price hit 1.9080 I will go long, that the possiblities I can tell you. 1.9150 is good resistance, so if price hit this price you can go short because market already overbought.Maby the price spike to down and continue lower, that another one possibilties.

If the actual number lower from 51k> the chances is none or only 5% but this not impossible because some reason like election, some politician use economy indicator to get vote and playing economy figure for this reason. price will be spike up and we can see a new breakout and lowest USD in 6 months. Just look at 5 minutes candlestick when line MA 10 cross over MA 20 close your position.

So that all for this time, please give comment. thank you> Im still waiting my secret informer
  • #40
  • Nov 2, 2006 11:02pm Nov 2, 2006 11:02pm
Hi
Here's what i've receive from BKTrader :
Quote
Short AUD Going Into Payrolls
November 2, 2006 EMAIL TIME: 6:50pm EST
We are still short the AUD/USD going into payrolls (we got in at .7735, its pretty much there). This is now a pure NFP play, given the strength of the prior move and the low risk, we are still hanging onto it. There could be big revisions to September's awful 51k print. We also believe that given the recent jobless claims, ADP and Hudson Employment reports, we run a good chance of seeing triple digits.

You can read our full NFP outlook on DailyFX US Non-Farm Payrolls - What to Expect for the Dollar

For information...
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