Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2663 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #53,241
  • Sep 4, 2020 6:05am Sep 4, 2020 6:05am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} That two hour block is good for one basic reason - you know price WILL move and the block gives you your lines in the sand. It's finding the most effective way of trading that move over those lines that is the million Dollar question.
Yeah the first 10-15 minutes are crazy. Seems to "calm down" a bit after that lol.
  • #53,242
  • Sep 4, 2020 8:12am Sep 4, 2020 8:12am
That was exciting, lol....

i managed 10 points each off the first drop of NFP news.....caught them on retrace back up.
i think i may of mentioned it.

i am done for the week.
i do have counters running but am only a handful of points down.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,243
  • Sep 4, 2020 8:14am Sep 4, 2020 8:14am
Dollar index seems to be at a resistance level, so if it gets pushed down, cable is up.
lets see even though it doesnt matter. lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,244
  • Sep 4, 2020 9:43am Sep 4, 2020 9:43am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Hi Billy. Yes a quick visual will confirm it only breaks max 2-3 times on a 'normal' trading day. If anyone is using this method (I am), if the 3rd break fails, you are most likely in for one of Billy's whip days so stop and come back tomorrow. If you usually trade this break with 1 lot, maybe test the water when it first breaks with 0.3 lots. If it keeps going, keep adding to your position until you get to your 1 lot. If it fails, you have lost only a a third of your usual position. More often than not, the first break seems to fail....
Sometimes known as 'discipline.How does that song go ? 'Knowing when to hold 'em and knowing when to fold 'em."
Way to go.
Good weekend all.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #53,245
  • Sep 4, 2020 9:46am Sep 4, 2020 9:46am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Sometimes known as 'discipline.How does that song go ? 'Knowing when to hold 'em and knowing when to fold 'em." Way to go. Good weekend all.
Hi Mr T, hope you are well.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,246
  • Edited 12:34pm Sep 4, 2020 10:52am | Edited 12:34pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi Mr T, hope you are well.
Doing fine thank you William
Ploughing my lonely furrow. I still follow this thread albeit my approach now differs from the main focus of this thread - which I still regard as my nursery, so to speak
I have learned a lot, and continue to do so, from various posters on this thread. And nice to see Lem back in the saddle.
Enjoy your weekend.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #53,247
  • Sep 4, 2020 12:34pm Sep 4, 2020 12:34pm
Have a grand weekend all. Looking to get more involved next week, albeit I will have to take an enforced break away on Tuesday and maybe Wednesday but you have no idea how good it feels to just be able to chat.

See y'all on Monday.
  • #53,248
  • Sep 4, 2020 1:11pm Sep 4, 2020 1:11pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TOOSLOW4.png Size: 43 KB

The ATM delayed withdrawal.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #53,249
  • Sep 6, 2020 1:17pm Sep 6, 2020 1:17pm
Hi Claudia. Don't know if you're around? Just had a question on your hourly bar break method on GU. I know you normally take however many pips you can get on these breaks, but in terms of defining your risk, would your SL normally be the other end of the 1 hour bar? Or is this more a 1:1 risk:reward set up? Or does it depend on the position of your ultimate target, the pivot? Wait, that's more than 1 question lol. Thanks.
  • #53,250
  • Sep 6, 2020 1:50pm Sep 6, 2020 1:50pm
Quoting ia1979
Hi Claudia. Don't know if you're around? Just had a question on your hourly bar break method on GU. I know you normally take however many pips you can get on these breaks, but in terms of defining your risk, would your SL normally be the other end of the 1 hour bar? Or is this more a 1:1 risk:reward set up? Or does it depend on the position of your ultimate target, the pivot? Wait, that's more than 1 question lol. Thanks.
I'm here.

With the hourly break I'm looking at high win rate with a low r:r probably less than one.

Have a look at the attached chart. This is a break down of the hourly range from last week. As with any break out system the lower the range the higher the probability of a decent break. Take 7 - 8 am the range is low - we know London will break after that as usual. Look at 3 - 4 massive range so avoid.

So basically I'm filtering based on the previous hourly range. Out of 9 potential trades I might get 6 entries and would look for a minimum of 4 wins.

Not interested in news, pivots etc for this.

Hope that makes some sort of sense.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 1H Average Range.pdf   21 KB | 412 downloads
  • #53,251
  • Sep 6, 2020 3:13pm Sep 6, 2020 3:13pm
Quoting claudia1
{quote} I'm here. With the hourly break I'm looking at high win rate with a low r:r probably less than one. Have a look at the attached chart. This is a break down of the hourly range from last week. As with any break out system the lower the range the higher the probability of a decent break. Take 7 - 8 am the range is low - we know London will break after that as usual. Look at 3 - 4 massive range so avoid. So basically I'm filtering based on the previous hourly range. Out of 9 potential trades I might get 6 entries and would look for a minimum...
Yes, perfectly clear, thanks. I'll start observing these candle breaks from tomorrow to try and get a feel for them. I've been trading them, but to try and get to the pivots. With lower lot sizes. Seems like it might be safe enough to go in with a higher lot size, and ultimately a few pips at a time. Or maybe even a trailing stop.
  • #53,252
  • Sep 6, 2020 3:14pm Sep 6, 2020 3:14pm
Quoting claudia1
{quote} I'm here. With the hourly break I'm looking at high win rate with a low r:r probably less than one. Have a look at the attached chart. This is a break down of the hourly range from last week. As with any break out system the lower the range the higher the probability of a decent break. Take 7 - 8 am the range is low - we know London will break after that as usual. Look at 3 - 4 massive range so avoid. So basically I'm filtering based on the previous hourly range. Out of 9 potential trades I might get 6 entries and would look for a minimum...
Really good info. So I understand you look for smaller hourly ranges to be the trigger. What does the % signify in the attached chart? Is it a percent of the hourly range over ADR? Thanks.
  • #53,253
  • Sep 6, 2020 3:22pm Sep 6, 2020 3:22pm
Quoting Skyhawks
{quote} Really good info. So I understand you look for smaller hourly ranges to be the trigger. What does the % signify in the attached chart? Is it a percent of the hourly range over ADR? Thanks.
It's a % of the hourly range over the the 9 hour period I look at - Frankfurt open through to London close.
  • #53,254
  • Sep 6, 2020 10:06pm Sep 6, 2020 10:06pm
Quoting claudia1
{quote} I'm here. With the hourly break I'm looking at high win rate with a low r:r probably less than one. Have a look at the attached chart. This is a break down of the hourly range from last week. As with any break out system the lower the range the higher the probability of a decent break. Take 7 - 8 am the range is low - we know London will break after that as usual. Look at 3 - 4 massive range so avoid. So basically I'm filtering based on the previous hourly range. Out of 9 potential trades I might get 6 entries and would look for a minimum...
by the looks of your chart the best h1 bar to trade off of would be the 7-8am bar. It had the biggest jump in % to the following h1 bar
  • #53,255
  • Sep 7, 2020 1:54am Sep 7, 2020 1:54am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} I'm here. With the hourly break I'm looking at high win rate with a low r:r probably less than one. Have a look at the attached chart. This is a break down of the hourly range from last week. As with any break out system the lower the range the higher the probability of a decent break. Take 7 - 8 am the range is low - we know London will break after that as usual. Look at 3 - 4 massive range so avoid. So basically I'm filtering based on the previous hourly range. Out of 9 potential trades I might get 6 entries and would look for a minimum...
excellent post Claudia, your trying to trade like me, lol, joking.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,256
  • Sep 7, 2020 1:54am Sep 7, 2020 1:54am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} by the looks of your chart the best h1 bar to trade off of would be the 7-8am bar. It had the biggest jump in % to the following h1 bar
Hi Bo, hope you are well.
good to see you.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,257
  • Sep 7, 2020 2:01am Sep 7, 2020 2:01am
00-00 4 hour bar break.
Both cable and e/u have broken the low and made points.
i haven't traded them today just waiting for the 08-00 15 min bar to break.
Trade well all.
t 08-01
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,258
  • Sep 7, 2020 2:08am Sep 7, 2020 2:08am
good morning,

i will also take the 08-15 trade.

in the afternoon i will not trade due to bank holiday (labor day) in US.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #53,259
  • Sep 7, 2020 2:24am Sep 7, 2020 2:24am
Quoting birdland
good morning, i will also take the 08-15 trade. in the afternoon i will not trade due to bank holiday (labor day) in US.
+5, thx.

as i see there was a retrace, but i took the "regular" trade;-)
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #53,260
  • Sep 7, 2020 2:28am Sep 7, 2020 2:28am
Quoting birdland
{quote} +5, thx. as i see there was a retrace, but i took the "regular" trade;-)
oi, stop it.
i post made +5% first. lol joking.

i went long off the high break but actually thought it might fail, ( i expect to fail).
If it fails we trade it good, but alas we got the 5% , actually 5.5%
trade well all.
t 08-28
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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