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OxyGen FX Trading Journal

  • #121
  • Sep 2, 2020 9:01am Sep 2, 2020 9:01am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} No time to update. Sadly I have no control over my time. This will affect my trading. And also had a last minute wonderful meet up with an old friend. Brilliant guy, have the looks, and the brains to set up companies. I know he worked super hard. BTW, NASDAQ shot up to 12K figure and got rejected. Might be a sign, as techs have been leading this un-earthly stock rally. Had also short GBPUSD, and closed half for +60pips. Target is top of fomer consolidation. {image}
Trade update:
AUDUSD shorts still active (now abt 40 pips)
GBPJPY shorts...
Trade Update: Near Noon NY session, volume sometimes dropped, and movements slowed or paused.
AUDUSD shorts, close half for +40pips.
GBPJPY shorts, closed all for +70pips (had took the trade as it was rejected from top of rising channel)
GBPUSD, closed remainder for +70 pips
NZDJPY, still active, at -10 pips, close half, as I not confident it will fall.
NZDUSD, still active, at + 5pips, , close half, as I not confident it will fall

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  • #122
  • Sep 2, 2020 5:07pm Sep 2, 2020 5:07pm
Y’day USD recovered strongly against all except NZD and CAD.
Yen pairs mostly drop except NZD and CAD

Majors and Yen pairs will likely consolidate. Hard to do any longer term trades, Will just scalp 10pips, 15pips if have spare time.
NFP on Friday. Maybe this will be the game changer.
NFP might sink Majors and Yen-pairs, or…..might create a final sharp boost up, before a big rejection and followed by full on bears.

AUDJPY: Consolidating for the 3rd day below yearly high made on Monday. The next R at 80 figure seems a bit too far for this long rally.
AUDUSD: Retreated 80 pips from Yearly high. Next resistance is 0.75 figure, which is also the neckline for May2019 - May2020 double top.

EURJPY: Consolidating below new yearly high made 2 days ago, and testing the base of 1 month old channel. Next resistance is 125 figure and Feb2019 high of 125.51.
EURUSD: Strong retreat from 1.20 figure but there is no distinct blow-out top, as this rally to 1.20 is still (sort of) within a gentle rising channel.

GBPJPY: Made new yearly high but this is still contained within a rising channel. Next resistance is 21Feb2020 high of 144.96, and 145 figure., and a long term falling trendline now at about 145, although is a bit far at distance of 300 pips.
GBPUSD: Made new yearly high just below 1.35 and got rejected. Beyond 1.35 is the trend-changing-critical of 13Dec high 1.3515.

NZDJPY: Broke out of 68-72 channel and made new yearly high. Next resistance is the trend-changing-critical of 30Dec2019 of 73.51.
NZDUSD: Made new yearly high after breaking the trend-changing-critical resistance of 31Dec 0.6755. But now (0.6768) is in a zone of major peaks/bottoms since 2016.

USDCHF: Tested 0.90 figure support twice in last 2 weeks.

USDJPY: Looks like possible long term consolidation in 105-107.

Trade update:
AUDUSD remainder shorts, close for + 30pips.
NZDJPY remainder shorts still active, like -5 pips, added another cautiously. Will close once it move down a little more. Or close if it goes up.
NZDUSD remainder shorts still active, like -8 pips, added another cautiously. Will close once it move down a little more. Or close if it goes up.

Will do scalp or short term trades of 10-15pips of EURUSD and GBPUSD today, which I will not post here.
  • #123
  • Sep 3, 2020 8:33am Sep 3, 2020 8:33am
Trade Update:
Closed NZDJPY shorts for +40pips
Closed NZDUSD shorts for +40pips
(Finally, it moved after 3 days...Frankly, I lost my patience for this trade, hence decided to close all)

The 3rd day of USD strength. Yen-cross also dip.

NFP Tmr.
  • #124
  • Sep 3, 2020 6:52pm Sep 3, 2020 6:52pm
Today is NFP day, and most times it will cause big moves and will at the least shape the short term trend (i.e, will affect next Monday/Tuesday)

Next Monday is a USA bank holiday.
Bank holidays to me are considered as Major events, because exchanges are closed and there will be sharp movements. Maybe that's the reason why the FX Majors are being pulled back from their yearly highs. Big money may be playing it safe by closing positions early ahead of the dangerous NFP-cum-next-Monday-US-Holiday.

Most Majors and Yen-pairs have pulled back from their Yearly highs which were made on 1st Sep, and the fall stopped at their previous consolidation zone. Technical analysis are off the table, until like 1 hour after NFP.

Trade Update:
No definite positions.
Will play scalp, buying (going Long) on Majors now during Asia for 10-15 pips for example.
I would prefer if Majors, Yens, goes up a bit more, so that I can position Shorts. (At least 50% of the fall from the yearly highs. Yea, I do use a bit of Fibo in my trades. LOL)
Will then consider if I want to hold them over the weekend.
  • #125
  • Sep 5, 2020 7:56pm Sep 5, 2020 7:56pm
Last week was pretty exciting.
The week started with month-end flows, and with Majors/Yen-pairs to new yearly highs.
Mid-week, they dropped sharply and ended the week with NFP and below the newly highs..
With next Monday being a USA bank holiday, it seemed plausible that the last week market had “pump” up the Majors during Monday/end-of-month, and then “dump” it before NFP/Next-Monday-US-holiday. It is considered risky for positions to be held over the “long” weekend especially after a NFP event.

Next week main Events: Monday is USA bank holiday, Wed BOC rates, Thu ECB rates, speeches by BOC and ECB.

Trade Update:
All trades closed. Happy that I made some profits over this volatile week,

My strategy for next week:
The com-dols (AUD, NZD, CAD) seems to retain strong bullishness, while ERU, GBP seems to be losing ground..
Monday Asia and London might manipulate prices knowing that USA traders cannot react due to Holiday.

AUDJPY: Testing support (former ascending triangle zone) after falling from yearly high. Might follow stocks downwards to due high correlation.
AUDUSD: Testing support (former ascending triangle zone) after falling from yearly highs. AUD was boosted by metals soaring prices and China trade as China is a huge importer for Aust materials.

EURJPY: Consolidating below new yearly highs and supported by 125.
EURUSD: Consolidating below new yearly high (and also the 1.20 figure) in a rising expanding triangle.

GBPJPY: Testing base of rising channel after falling from new yearly high but all this is still contained within a rising channel that started from 1st July 2020.
GBPUSD: Testing support (former expanding triangle zone) after falling from yearly high (and also from the 1.35 figure.) BREXIT will influence it again.

NZDJPY: Broke briefly above broad horizontal consolidation (of 68-72)
NZDUSD: Made new yearly high as well as the last Major to achieve technical short term bottoming after breaking critical resistance (31Dec 0.6755.

USDCHF: Consolidating between 0.90 and 0.92.

USDJPY: Looks like possible long term consolidation between 105-107.
  • #126
  • Sep 5, 2020 8:31pm Sep 5, 2020 8:31pm
This is how I view the Majors. Daily chart, same X and Y axis.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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And the Yen pairs, Daily chart, same X and Y axis.
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I often see the Daily chart and 4hr just for perspective. I will delve into the 1hr for trade entry, and the 15min chart for scalp of 10pips.
  • #127
  • Sep 6, 2020 11:19pm Sep 6, 2020 11:19pm
Monday, Asia opens but there is no reaction for Majors, starting from Aust open to Tokyo to SSE.
Last Fri NFP has psuh down the Majors, althought they recover quite a bit before the close of NY session (and the week)
Looks like Asia do not want to commit.
Europe opens, and same as Asia.

Majors has been on a bullish run for months, further supported by easy money from Feds.
If Asia and Europe does not dare to push Majors up further, it might likely go down.

Short AUDUSD, target 0.7250 and 0.72
Short EURUSD, target 1.18 and 1.1750
  • #128
  • Sep 7, 2020 1:18am Sep 7, 2020 1:18am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
Monday, Asia opens but there is no reaction for Majors, starting from Aust open to Tokyo to SSE. Last Fri NFP has psuh down the Majors, althought they recover quite a bit before the close of NY session (and the week) Looks like Asia do not want to commit. Europe opens, and same as Asia. Majors has been on a bullish run for months, further supported by easy money from Feds. If Asia and Europe does not dare to push Majors up further, it might likely go down.

Short AUDUSD, target 0.7250 and 0.72
Short EURUSD, target 1.18 and 1.1750
Looks like even when London opens, there is more hesitation. Neither Asia traders, Europe nor London dares to commit to any trend.

Will close both AUDUSD and EURUSD.
  • #129
  • Sep 7, 2020 5:17pm Sep 7, 2020 5:17pm
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} Looks like even when London opens, there is more hesitation. Neither Asia traders, Europe nor London dares to commit to any trend. Will close both AUDUSD and EURUSD.
Y'day Monday sees most Majors stagnant, likely due to US holiday. Asia/London dare not move without US?
The exception is GBPUSD (and other GBP-pairs), which dipped a whopping 119 pips!

I did not trade this GBP yesterday, as even before Monday Asia fully open, the GBP has already moved down some 30 pips and I did not chase.
Who would have thought it went a further 80 pips down, while the rest of Majors are simply stagnant.
GBP was weighted by BREXIT issues over the weekend.

Will position some small trades before Asia fully opens.
Short AUDUSD, new trade,
Short CHFJPY, new trade
Short EURUSD, new trade
Short NZDJPY, new trade
  • #130
  • Sep 8, 2020 5:23am Sep 8, 2020 5:23am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} Y'day Monday sees most Majors stagnant, likely due to US holiday. Asia/London dare not move without US? The exception is GBPUSD (and other GBP-pairs), which dipped a whopping 119 pips! I did not trade this GBP yesterday, as even before Monday Asia fully open, the GBP has already moved down some 30 pips and I did not chase. Who would have thought it went a further 80 pips down, while the rest of Majors are simply stagnant. GBP was weighted by BREXIT issues over the weekend. Will position some small trades before Asia fully opens.

Short...
Trade Update: Positions all (thankfully) reached some sort of support. Will stall, and may even bounce up.

Short AUDUSD, added another position, closed both totally for +60 and +40 pips (see below screen shot)
Short CHFJPY, close 75% for +20pips, not confident it will drop further
Short EURUSD, close 75% for +20pips, not confident it will drop further
Short NZDJPY, close 75% for +50pips (see below screen shot)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #131
  • Sep 8, 2020 5:39am Sep 8, 2020 5:39am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} Trade Update: Positions all (thankfully) reached some sort of support. Will stall, and may even bounce up. Short AUDUSD, added another position, closed both totally for +60 and +40 pips (see below screen shot) Short CHFJPY, close 75% for +20pips, not confident it will drop further Short EURUSD, close 75% for +20pips, not confident it will drop further Short NZDJPY, close 75% for +50pips (see below screen shot) {image}{image}
Trade update: All pairs started to retrace up.
Short CHFJPY, closed remainder for +25
Short EURUSD, closed remainder for +20
Short NZDJPY, closed remainder for +40

Stocks. Asia markets were generally positive, but Europe/London started to fail..
BREXIT issues affects UK, but surely it also affects Europe if markets starts to roll.

For FX, the action is definitely at GBP side.
GBPJPY had a big bear day, currently 160 down ! The GBP is definitely in Bear territory now,.
But I did not trade this at all, as mention, it was already down, I did not want to chase it down, nor dare to LONG it.
Now is pre-US open, for the week, and shall monitor whats going on later.
  • #132
  • Sep 8, 2020 7:16am Sep 8, 2020 7:16am
US opens. Tuesday. GBP is still the star !

This week main Events: Monday is USA bank holiday, Wed BOC rates, Thu ECB rates, speeches by BOC and ECB.

Trade Update:
All previous trades were closed, just now before US opens..Happy to make quite a profit !

Most pairs are very far off from their Yearly highs made on 1st Sep, and have broken various supports, hence likely this is the start of a bear trend.
No one will know if this is a short term “correction” hence buy-dips, or a long term “reversal” hence sell rallies.

CURRENCY PAIRS SUMMARY
AUDJPY: Strong fall broke support (top of former ascending triangle 76.50 zone), hence temporary top is made. Next support is a rising line that starts from 12June.
AUDUSD: Strong fall broke a series of minor supports. Next support is the rising line that starts from 2Aug. Affected by the falling price of iron, gold, and imports into China.

EURJPY: Strong fall broke below 125. A temporary top is made at 127.07. Next support is the confluence of peaks/bottoms at 124.50 zone.
EURUSD: Price slowly broke below rising channel that starts from 1stAugust. Next support is the 1.17 figure that is also a confluence of bottoms. ECB openly concern about Euro strength.

GBPJPY: Very strong fall of 180 pips (and likely more than it’s ATR-14) which is firmly below 140, and below rising channel, and now pausing at 138. Next support is the 135.50 confluence of peaks and 135 figure, which is a bit too far for now,
GBPUSD: Very strong fall of 145 pips (and likely more than it’s ATR-14), and testing 1.30 figure. Stalled BREXIT weights.

NZDJPY: Very strong fall broke into the cluster zone of 70-70.60. Next support is the 70 figure.
NZDUSD: Very strong fall broke 19Aug peak, next support is a rising line that starts from 18 May.

USDCHF: Consolidating between 0.90 and 0.92. SNB openly concern about CHF strength. Intervention soon?

USDJPY: Looks like possible long term consolidation between 105-107. Beware that such coiling will result in strong breakouts. Which direction? Abe’s possible replacement says still believes in ultra easy money.
  • #133
  • Sep 8, 2020 5:14pm Sep 8, 2020 5:14pm
Bear market now! Correction, or Reversal?
Stocks and Majors all drop. Nasdaq leads stock drop with -4%.

Forex pairs that deserves mention for yesterday’s moves:
GBPJPY sank 242 pips, with it’s ATR-14 about 110 pips last 2 weeks
GBPUSD sank 196 pips, ATR-14 about 110
USDCAD rise 152 pips, ATR-14 about 85
AUDJPY sank 119 pips, ATR-14 about 65
NZDJPY sank 115 pips, ATR-14 about 65
The rest are lower.

And here’s the chart of the biggest mover, GBPJPY. It has crashed below quite a few supports visible on a daily chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 60 KB



Trades update:
Will go long cautiously to play the correction, as the dip is over extended.
Will position now before Asia fully opens

Long GBPJPY
Long GBPUSD
Short USDCAD
Long AUDJPY
  • #134
  • Sep 8, 2020 10:52pm Sep 8, 2020 10:52pm
Quoting OxyGen_FX
Bear market now! Correction, or Reversal?
Trades update: Will go long cautiously to play the correction, as the dip is over extended. Will position now before Asia fully opens Long GBPJPY Long GBPUSD Short USDCAD Long AUDJPY
TRADE UPDATE:
Close Long AUDJPY for +17pips
Close Long GBPJPY for +1 pip (What the.....didn't it fell 242 pips yesterday?)
Close Long GBPUSD for -1 pip (OMG......no retracement at all?)
Close Short USDCAD for +5 pips.

Close before possible fanatic selling at Europe opening (Germany, France, Italy etc).
Bear sentiment is still very strong. There was hardly any corrective retracement to the big dips yesterday.
Will be interesting to see what happens in this hour leading to London open.
No, I dare not chase this strong fall.
Who knows, maybe London will.....BUY???
  • #135
  • Sep 9, 2020 12:31am Sep 9, 2020 12:31am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} TRADE UPDATE: Close Long AUDJPY for +17pips Close Long GBPJPY for +1 pip (What the.....didn't it fell 242 pips yesterday?) Close Long GBPUSD for -1 pip (OMG......no retracement at all?) Close Short USDCAD for +5 pips. Close before possible fanatic selling at Europe opening (Germany, France, Italy etc). Bear sentiment is still very strong. There was hardly any corrective retracement to the big dips yesterday. Will be interesting to see what happens in this hour leading to London open. No, I dare not chase this strong fall. Who knows, maybe...
London opens. There was no reaction from London. Earlier on Asia and East Europe also had no reaction.
Will attempt to play correction again. Will close before NY session

TRADE UPDATE: New Trades
Long AUDJPY
Long GBPJPY
Long GBPUSD
Short USDCAD
  • #136
  • Sep 9, 2020 1:30am Sep 9, 2020 1:30am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} London opens. There was no reaction from London. Earlier on Asia and East Europe also had no reaction. Will attempt to play correction again. Will close before NY session TRADE UPDATE: New Trades Long AUDJPY Long GBPJPY Long GBPUSD Short USDCAD
TRADE UPDATE: Cautiously playing the correction up.
Closed AUDJPY Long for +20 pips
Closed GBPJPY Long for +20 pips
Closed GBPUSD Long when it hit stoploss for -5 pips
Closed USDCAD short for +15 pips.

Will see what NY session brings.
  • #137
  • Sep 9, 2020 5:42am Sep 9, 2020 5:42am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} TRADE UPDATE: Cautiously playing the correction up. Closed AUDJPY Long for +20 pips Closed GBPJPY Long for +20 pips Closed GBPUSD Long when it hit stoploss for -5 pips Closed USDCAD short for +15 pips. Will see what NY session brings.
NY time 7am sees selling, probably fear of continuation of yesterday's big selling.
But by 8am begins to see buying, a sign for corrective rally. Will not need to wait til 9.30am for NYSE's direction. Global DOW is also going up, Europe indices positive.

TRADE UPDATE: New trade
Long GBPJPY
Long GBPUSD
Short USDCAD
  • #138
  • Sep 9, 2020 5:59am Sep 9, 2020 5:59am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} NY time 7am sees selling, probably fear of continuation of yesterday's big selling. But by 8am begins to see buying, a sign for corrective rally. Will not need to wait til 9.30am for NYSE's direction. Global DOW is also going up, Europe indices positive.
TRADE UPDATE: New trade Long GBPJPY Long GBPUSD Short USDCAD
TRADE UPDATE: (That was lucky and fast!)
GBPJPY Long, close 75% for +70 pips
GBPUSD Long, close 75% for +70 pips
USDCAD short, close 75% for + 25 pips

(Might consider adding later)

Pics of remainder of the positions. 1hr charts. GJ, GU, UC.
Attached Image

Attached Image

Attached Image
  • #139
  • Sep 9, 2020 6:25am Sep 9, 2020 6:25am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} TRADE UPDATE: (That was lucky and fast!) GBPJPY Long, close 75% for +70 pips GBPUSD Long, close 75% for +70 pips USDCAD short, close 75% for + 25 pips (Might consider adding later) Pics of remainder of the positions. 1hr charts. GJ, GU, UC. {image} {image} {image}
TRADE UPDATE:
GBPJPY Long remainder close +85 pips.
GBPUSD Long remainder close +85 pips
USDCAD Short remainder close +25 pips

The sudden spike was caused by a ECB member who spoke positively about Euro and Eurozone. Not sure why, but all Majors spike.
Will see what happens when NYSE opens.
  • #140
  • Sep 9, 2020 7:07am Sep 9, 2020 7:07am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} TRADE UPDATE: GBPJPY Long remainder close +85 pips. GBPUSD Long remainder close +85 pips USDCAD Short remainder close +25 pips The sudden spike was caused by a ECB member who spoke positively about Euro and Eurozone. Not sure why, but all Majors spike. Will see what happens when NYSE opens.
NY session opens No fanatic selling. No follow thru for 8am spike.
Recap, Majors made yearly highs on 1st Sep, and then starts to fall for 5 trading days.
Would like to assume that a short term top(s) were made on 1st Sep for all Majors. (Short term, maybe a least 2 weeks or so)
This pre-NY spike might just be significant enough to start "sell rallies" in a bear trend.
Of course, there might be another small leg up, hence will be cautious and to add position.

TRADE UPDATE: New trades
Building shorts position for EURUSD, EURJPY. AUDUSD

EURUSD has fallen hard from Yearly high and briefly broke below a rising channel, and will be testing the various bottoms within this channel
Attached Image

EURJPY has fallen hard from Yearly highs, and has briefly broke below (and bounce off) 125 figure.
Attached Image

AUDUSD has fallen hard from Yearly high, and has briefly broke below its rising channel.
Attached Image
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