Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2662 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #53,221
  • Sep 4, 2020 3:19am Sep 4, 2020 3:19am
Cable 00-00 low failed, i am now long with a counter.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,222
  • Sep 4, 2020 3:46am Sep 4, 2020 3:46am
i tried a retrace trade, good for +6, thx.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #53,223
  • Sep 4, 2020 3:49am Sep 4, 2020 3:49am
Quoting birdland
i tried a retrace trade, good for +6, thx.
good, we also had a couple of re trace trades with e/u.
Which i did not trade. just saying.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,224
  • Sep 4, 2020 3:56am Sep 4, 2020 3:56am
same with e/u.

00-00 4 hour bar break, low failed, i am now long with counter.
t09-56
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,225
  • Sep 4, 2020 3:59am Sep 4, 2020 3:59am
Quoting billytt
{quote} if you look back (even visually). You will see the 00-00 break and keep going, Or, break and fail, then the other end keeps going. When it does this we hunt the average daily range. IT CAN THEN RETRACE, it isn't the grail but it is easy to trade for profit.
Hi Billy. Yes a quick visual will confirm it only breaks max 2-3 times on a 'normal' trading day. If anyone is using this method (I am), if the 3rd break fails, you are most likely in for one of Billy's whip days so stop and come back tomorrow.

If you usually trade this break with 1 lot, maybe test the water when it first breaks with 0.3 lots. If it keeps going, keep adding to your position until you get to your 1 lot. If it fails, you have lost only a a third of your usual position. More often than not, the first break seems to fail. So perhaps this scaling in can be used for the first break. And perhaps on the second/third break, it is safer to go in with your usual lot size. Just throwing some ideas around.
  • #53,226
  • Sep 4, 2020 4:01am Sep 4, 2020 4:01am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Hi Billy. Yes a quick visual will confirm it only breaks max 2-3 times on a 'normal' trading day. If anyone is using this method (I am), if the 3rd break fails, you are most likely in for one of Billy's whip days so stop and come back tomorrow. If you usually trade this break with 1 lot, maybe test the water when it first breaks with 0.3 lots. If it keeps going, keep adding to your position until you get to your 1 lot. If it fails, you have lost only a a third of your usual position. More often than not, the first break seems to fail. So...

Excellent Post Bud. hope you are well.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,227
  • Sep 4, 2020 4:04am Sep 4, 2020 4:04am
Regarding the second break after a fail.

i run the counter, with the next trade i pick off points.
Cable , i was -36 but now if it drops i will of banked 20.

e/u if it drops i banked 7 . was minus 18.

lets see.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,228
  • Sep 4, 2020 4:07am Sep 4, 2020 4:07am
so far cable has made 63 ,, and adr = 123

e/u has made 32, and adr -= 96
t 10-07
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,229
  • Sep 4, 2020 4:08am Sep 4, 2020 4:08am
Hi Lem, your 6-8am Dax break has been working quite well over the past few days. I tried using wick zone for counters on this in the past few weeks, but I'm clearly not as skilled so it always goes wrong for me. I have had more luck just going with an outside break, and if that fails, going in with a larger lot size on the opposite outside break. Sort of like my method on the 12-4am break on GU/GJ/EU, 3 failed breaks and I am out for the day. Because there are days this range will just carry on breaking on both sides.

When I try to counter it with wick zones, it tends to turn around and go back in the original direction. So I put another trade on in the original direction. Then it turns around and goes back in the opposite direction. I am sure I had 7 sells and 6 buys open one day . Any tips would be welcome here. Thanks.
  • #53,230
  • Sep 4, 2020 4:12am Sep 4, 2020 4:12am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Hi Billy. Yes a quick visual will confirm it only breaks max 2-3 times on a 'normal' trading day. If anyone is using this method (I am), if the 3rd break fails, you are most likely in for one of Billy's whip days so stop and come back tomorrow. If you usually trade this break with 1 lot, maybe test the water when it first breaks with 0.3 lots. If it keeps going, keep adding to your position until you get to your 1 lot. If it fails, you have lost only a a third of your usual position. More often than not,...
good joke, because when u have 3 break fails, then its probably not much time left for the day to trade;-)

but serious, your idea of testing the first break with one third (or 0.3 lots) is a good idea!
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #53,231
  • Sep 4, 2020 4:16am Sep 4, 2020 4:16am
Quoting birdland
{quote} good joke, because when u have 3 break fails, then its probably not much time left for the day to trade;-) but serious, your idea of testing the first break with one third (or 0.3 lots) is a good idea!

he wasn't joking.

as you watch the break, you also watch the average daily range......

really on NFP day we shouldn't really trade, actually even on a Friday.
i am a bit too confident.
If we have a fail then another hopefully it is early in the trading day.
As you point out, the longer it goes the harder the trade.
BUT WATCH THE DAILY RANGE.
Trade Well.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,232
  • Sep 4, 2020 4:19am Sep 4, 2020 4:19am
Quoting birdland
{quote} good joke, because when u have 3 break fails, then its probably not much time left for the day to trade;-) but serious, your idea of testing the first break with one third (or 0.3 lots) is a good idea!
Lol, and thanks.

There was one particular day I remembered when posting the above - the 17th of August. Ended up being a really crap day. Cable had a range of only about 50 (!) and it had broken the 12-4am range about 5 times before midday. I remember that day because I lost a fair bit that day. Most breaks were good for a few points like Billy pointed out on the day, but I was trying for the ADR, which never happened. That was when I decided 3 breaks was the limit for me.
  • #53,233
  • Sep 4, 2020 4:24am Sep 4, 2020 4:24am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Lol, and thanks. There was one particular day I remembered when posting the above - the 17th of August. Ended up being a really crap day. Cable had a range of only about 50 (!) and it had broken the 12-4am range about 5 times before midday. I remember that day because I lost a fair bit that day. Most breaks were good for a few points like Billy pointed out on the day, but I was trying for the ADR, which never happened. That was when I decided 3 breaks was the limit for me.
and adr was 84 that day.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,234
  • Sep 4, 2020 4:24am Sep 4, 2020 4:24am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Lol, and thanks. There was one particular day I remembered when posting the above - the 17th of August. Ended up being a really crap day. Cable had a range of only about 50 (!) and it had broken the 12-4am range about 5 times before midday. I remember that day because I lost a fair bit that day. Most breaks that day were good for a few points like Billy pointed out on the day, but I was trying for the ADR, which never happened. That was when I decided 3 breaks was the limit for me.
ok, this 17th august was really the "holy shit day" . i remember watching when i came back of my holidays. so the rule 3rd trade fail-STOP makes sense now.

i will back test it now visually more carefully, but what i see so far the august was really different to the other months before. but also normal in this business, to shake off the free riders i guess.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #53,235
  • Sep 4, 2020 4:50am Sep 4, 2020 4:50am
Quoting billytt
{quote} That is what i like to see, that gets my nose a quivering. Hope you are well Lem.
Thanks, Billy. Yep, getting stronger every day. As for those rules...we'll see, lol.
  • #53,236
  • Sep 4, 2020 4:53am Sep 4, 2020 4:53am
Quoting billytt
{quote} and adr was 84 that day.

oops, i forgot. the daily range was 47. that was the lowest since 10th April
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,237
  • Sep 4, 2020 4:54am Sep 4, 2020 4:54am
Don't forget, the more you trade the more chances of Failure occurs.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,238
  • Sep 4, 2020 4:55am Sep 4, 2020 4:55am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Hi Billy. Yes a quick visual will confirm it only breaks max 2-3 times on a 'normal' trading day. If anyone is using this method (I am), if the 3rd break fails, you are most likely in for one of Billy's whip days so stop and come back tomorrow. If you usually trade this break with 1 lot, maybe test the water when it first breaks with 0.3 lots. If it keeps going, keep adding to your position until you get to your 1 lot. If it fails, you have lost only a a third of your usual position. More often than not, the first break seems to fail. So...
Great post. Nice info.
  • #53,239
  • Sep 4, 2020 5:02am Sep 4, 2020 5:02am
Quoting ia1979
Hi Lem, your 6-8am Dax break has been working quite well over the past few days. I tried using wick zone for counters on this in the past few weeks, but I'm clearly not as skilled so it always goes wrong for me. I have had more luck just going with an outside break, and if that fails, going in with a larger lot size on the opposite outside break. Sort of like my method on the 12-4am break on GU/GJ/EU, 3 failed breaks and I am out for the day. Because there are days this range will just carry on breaking on both sides. When I try to counter it with...
No tips as such, just the fact that what you are experiencing is the reason why I moved on / morphed this block into something else. Running WZ on it in the classical way doesn't work. Just the Monster being monsterish.

I may take another look at it with some of the newer thoughts in mind. See if anything pops up.

In general though, the first move(s) at Open is simply more often than not, sheer insanity. Great if you get in and out and happen to be on the right side of it but more often than not, you end up having to trade your way out of the more - which is how I developed my scalping tech which now stands on its own.
  • #53,240
  • Sep 4, 2020 5:03am Sep 4, 2020 5:03am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} No tips as such, just the fact that what you are experiencing is the reason why I moved on / morphed this block into something else. Running WZ on it in the classical way doesn't work. Just the Monster being monsterish. I may take another look at it with some of the newer thoughts in mind. See if anything pops up. In general though, the first move(s) at Open is simply more often than not, sheer insanity. Great if you get in and out and happen to be on the right side of it but more often than not, you end up having to trade your way out of...
That two hour block is good for one basic reason - you know price WILL move and the block gives you your lines in the sand. It's finding the most effective way of trading that move over those lines that is the million Dollar question.
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