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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #7,681
  • Sep 3, 2020 9:10am Sep 3, 2020 9:10am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I closed that UJ short in a loss. Currently looking at UJ if it finds R around 106.45-50 {image}
USDJPY, short trade update, sl to b/e
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1 oiuy.png Size: 34 KB
  • #7,682
  • Edited 10:58am Sep 3, 2020 9:19am | Edited 10:58am
I think you're looking at a top ,that would be the end of wave 5.The end of this bullish move for now.
I checked abc is a bullish pattern on the drawing ,then that wave down we see is wave 1 of 5 next big picture.It can only retrace below that high without down.
Its a top on the following reasons ,Major tl touch and respect to the pip and pivot space ,side on monthly .
USD basket has also hit it's tl and reacted.
The next monthly we are in is bearish....not continue under 13500
High probability bearish in form monthly print.Check weekly close .
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 11 GBPUSD-Monthly.png Size: 45 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2020-09-03 at 16.37.01.png Size: 716 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #7,683
  • Sep 3, 2020 9:33am Sep 3, 2020 9:33am
Quoting Bones
I think you're looking at a top ,that would be the end of wave 5.The end of this bullish move for now. I checked abc is a bullish pattern on the drawing ,then that wave down we see is wave 1 of 5 next big picture.It can only retrace below that high without down. Its a top on the following reasons ,Major tl touch and respect to the pip and pivot space ,side on monthly . USD basket has also hit it's tl and reacted. The next monthly we are in is bearish....not continue under 13500 {image} {image}
Hi Bones, that's a very likely scenario. I look at the weekly chart and it looks very bearish atm (& I pointed out that R box in weekend). but I need to see the close. There are still 1.3250 and 1.32 S zone below and then 1.30-1.13050, on EU a break below 1.17 confirms the reversal. We may get a bounce from here as a b wave then a c wave down (although I favor a more complex WXY structure posted yesterday). Let's see what Coreg thinks, he's the EW expert.

Also, EU got S where it should get, respecting the rising TL and 1.18, forming HH, LL, let's see how this develops.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU wk 93.PNG Size: 93 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 932.PNG Size: 62 KB
  • #7,684
  • Sep 3, 2020 9:40am Sep 3, 2020 9:40am
$ wedge is easier on eye on that index even across the majors , if it can break free next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2020-09-03 at 15.37.17.png Size: 67 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #7,685
  • Sep 3, 2020 9:46am Sep 3, 2020 9:46am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Hi Bones, that's a very likely scenario. I look at the weekly chart and it looks very bearish atm (& I pointed out that R box in weekend). but I need to see the close. There are still 1.3250 and 1.32 S zone below and then 1.30-1.13050, on EU a break below 1.17 confirms the reversal. We may get a bounce from here as a b wave then a c wave down (although I favor a more complex WXY structure posted yesterday). Let's see what Coreg thinks, he's the EW expert. Also, EU got S where it should get, respecting the rising TL and 1.18, forming HH,...
Yea we must see weekly,I think thats retrace were in best case
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 100 GBPUSD-12-hours.png Size: 37 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #7,686
  • Sep 3, 2020 9:50am Sep 3, 2020 9:50am
Quoting Bones
$ wedge is easier on eye on that index even across the majors , if it can break free next week. {image}
yes, that and the diagonal pattern. but those patterns are tricky, you never know when they end.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDXDaily 93.png Size: 30 KB
  • #7,687
  • Sep 3, 2020 9:56am Sep 3, 2020 9:56am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I closed that UJ short in a loss. Currently looking at UJ if it finds R around 106.45-50 {image}
USDJPY, short trade sl (+10)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1 9398.png Size: 36 KB
  • #7,688
  • Sep 3, 2020 9:59am Sep 3, 2020 9:59am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} yes, that and the diagonal pattern. but those patterns are tricky, you never know when they end. {image}
that one ends on the major tl
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #7,689
  • Sep 3, 2020 10:02am Sep 3, 2020 10:02am
USDCAD, levels I'm looking at for a possible short setup
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USCAD i.PNG Size: 59 KB
  • #7,690
  • Sep 3, 2020 10:33am Sep 3, 2020 10:33am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Thanks for the great chart Coreg. I think it's making a WXY. for some reason it reminds me of the same pattern we had back in April. This is probably a smaller version in terms of pips and time. {image}
GBPUSD, OK, the first 2 moves were correct, let's see if I get the rest of it correct.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU wxy6.PNG Size: 161 KB
  • #7,691
  • Sep 3, 2020 11:31am Sep 3, 2020 11:31am
Quoting shahab8b
USDCAD, levels I'm looking at for a possible short setup {image}
USDCAD, short trade, sl to b/e
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADM15 932.png Size: 29 KB
  • #7,692
  • Sep 3, 2020 12:09pm Sep 3, 2020 12:09pm
Quoting shahab8b
AU, possible H&Sh on H1 {image}
AUDUSD, adjusting sl to 0.7320, and tp @ 0.72
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM30 93 hsh.png Size: 40 KB
  • #7,693
  • Sep 3, 2020 12:27pm Sep 3, 2020 12:27pm
EURUSD, possible inverted H&Sh on H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU H&Sh.PNG Size: 63 KB
  • #7,694
  • Sep 3, 2020 1:08pm Sep 3, 2020 1:08pm
Quoting Bones
I think you're looking at a top ,that would be the end of wave 5.The end of this bullish move for now. I checked abc is a bullish pattern on the drawing ,then that wave down we see is wave 1 of 5 next big picture.It can only retrace below that high without down. Its a top on the following reasons ,Major tl touch and respect to the pip and pivot space ,side on monthly . USD basket has also hit it's tl and reacted. The next monthly we are in is bearish....not continue under 13500 High probability bearish in form monthly print.Check weekly close ....
Bones, that's what I came up with for GU...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 09.03.daily.png Size: 91 KB
and for EU...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 09.03.daily.png Size: 90 KB
time will tell if I'm off and how bad it will be...
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,695
  • Sep 3, 2020 3:20pm Sep 3, 2020 3:20pm
Anyone interested in Elliott Wave Principle...here is the link to very valuable lessons...all free

https://www.elliottwave.com/
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,696
  • Sep 3, 2020 3:37pm Sep 3, 2020 3:37pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} AUDUSD, adjusting sl to 0.7320, and tp @ 0.72 {image}
good trade)
I'm buy this pair
H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Daily
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If i right, maybe will fixed half of trade on a TP level. And then i'll remove tp. But i maybe wrong
Trade safe
Like your wife says, hold the fucking position until I tell you I'm done.
  • #7,697
  • Sep 3, 2020 3:40pm Sep 3, 2020 3:40pm
Quoting Coreg2004
Anyone interested in Elliott Wave Principle...here is the link to very valuable lessons...all free https://www.elliottwave.com/
Yea, the free ebook is great. I read it.

But for some reason their market analyses are awful. I had a one month free subscription many years ago and they were almost always wrong. I wonder if they have improved.
  • #7,698
  • Sep 3, 2020 3:40pm Sep 3, 2020 3:40pm
Quoting vowan4ik
{quote} good trade) I'm buy this pair {image}
it's the right play, good luck
  • #7,699
  • Sep 3, 2020 3:50pm Sep 3, 2020 3:50pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yea, the free ebook is great. I read it. But for some reason their market analyses are awful. I had a free pass for one month many years ago and they were almost always wrong. I wonder if they have improved.
I know and I wonder why?...they have 7 days lessons just pure theory nothing else...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EW.PNG Size: 424 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,700
  • Sep 3, 2020 3:58pm Sep 3, 2020 3:58pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} I know and I wonder why?...they have 7 days lessons just pure theory nothing else... {image}
so you agree? they are supposed to be the ultimate source.
They become famous when Paul Tudor Jones said he uses their market analysis sevice in his documentary. I guess at that time Robert Prechter was doing most of the EW analysis that's why it was good.
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