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  • #61
  • Aug 30, 2020 4:06am Aug 30, 2020 4:06am
Quoting gejordan
Make sure to catch the last post, but also, I was thinking we could alter our bias rules a bit so we get more practice. If MACD value is above 0 and increasing - UP BIAS If MACD value is above 0 and decreasing - NO BIAS, follow the move If MACD value is below 0 and decreasing - DOWN BIAS If MACD value is below 0 and increasing - NO BIAS, follow the move. This will allow for some No Bias, FOLLOW THE MOVE work as well, which is important.
yes got it G. Thank you
  • #62
  • Aug 30, 2020 6:58am Aug 30, 2020 6:58am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Remember, we are dumb money. So the point of the exercise is to ask questions while following the rules. The outcomes will give you answers. One instance doesn't answer the question. Don't be in a hurry to answer the questions or guess. Let repetition of the circumstances drive the car. Notice the chance to get out of the failed breakout at BE and how it could have happened. We'll see if it happens again. For now, think about the impact of closing at BE versus closing on Friday like you did or into the next week like you could have....
Yes. Asking the right questions is very important. One of the doubts I had when starting the journal was, am I taking note of and seeing the things which are supposed to be taken note of. So,in this post I wrote whatever I noticed and thought of for feeback. So this is a valuable feedback especially "Thinking about this is much more productive than trying to figure out if a breakout will continue or not. "

Thank you
  • #63
  • Edited 6:27pm Aug 30, 2020 2:17pm | Edited 6:27pm
Weekly bias: Bullish
Price in up move
Price above #2 and #3 entry points. So I will wait for retrace to enter.

I have placed a PO with TP at the next swing high
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  • #64
  • Edited 3:03pm Aug 31, 2020 2:36pm | Edited 3:03pm
01 September

Price has reached the 1965 and rejected. Two weeks back, I had my early entries around 1918 and 1885. I am not sure if there will be bigger retracement to down side from here. I have modified my entries to 1928 and 1900 for #2 and #3 and removed the TP since the next swing is above 1965. Also, there is a new channel from 1758 to 1960.

The entries are from the top of the channel as indicated in the daily chart. So expect bigger retracement. The aggressive swing is around 1882.If price goes below S50 be careful and try to find a small loss or BE exit and wait for entries towards the lower area of the channel.
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  • #65
  • Edited 2:45pm Sep 1, 2020 2:19pm | Edited 2:45pm
02 September

I had modified the #3 entry as per the current location of s50 and removed my entry from pivot when the price went up(without triggering my entries and went to sleep). The S50 entry was missed by 1 pip during news but the price came and triggered it overnight.

The price has broken the aggressive swing and held below. The price is below #2 and #3 and still in upmove(As per conservative swing). I will enter one position with TP at 1985

This scenario looks similar to the week before last where price broke the s50 after a couple of days of going up. Also price went below the aggressive swing but was within the conservative swing.

It is good if the price goes up and hit my target. But there is chance that the action of the week before last may repeat. If so, that will provide and opportunity to manage and find a graceful exit with small loss or BE and learn from it
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  • #66
  • Edited 7:56am Sep 2, 2020 7:21am | Edited 7:56am
Price came down significantly after breaking my aggressive swing. I see the price is breaking down consistently after a small pause(white arrow).
I am reminded of a similar trade on Post 1032 where the price rejected from a BRN two times and retraced significantly before going up in a No bias week. I am a bit surprised that the price shows little regards for the pauses on the swing up which happend on Friday Monday and tuesday. There is only a slight pause and push down.

(+) This is a Up BIAS week. So price may find buyers a bit lower. If yes, I will target the S50 for a BE trade or small loss
(-) Price has broken the aggressive swing and doesnt have any significant pullback (Lack of buyers from the top of the range. Also, remember that it came back quickly after breakout)
(-)price is below the S50 by a significant distance
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  • #67
  • Sep 2, 2020 8:20am Sep 2, 2020 8:20am
Learning

Remember to check how price reacted under similar circumstances in the near past. No need to theorise and create a new rule out of it . But just observe and see the difference
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  • #68
  • Sep 2, 2020 8:28am Sep 2, 2020 8:28am
Quoting Rearden
Price came down significantly after breaking my aggressive swing. I see the price is breaking down consistently after a small pause(white arrow). I am reminded of a similar trade on Post 1032 where the price rejected from a BRN two times and retraced significantly before going up in a No bias week. I am a bit surprised that the price shows little regards for the pauses on the swing up which happend on Friday Monday and tuesday. There is only a slight pause and push down. (+) This is a Up BIAS week. So price may find buyers a bit lower. If yes, I...
i suggest not using plus and minus in this way. It seems you're talking about it being good and bad where price is. Price isn't good or bad, it's just moving around.

i suggest journal how you feel about the movement of price against you or with you. associate emotions with the chart so you recognize them.
ask questions about what you are seeing and let time and repetition answer the questions. Use + and - to associate what you did good and bad.
Be bullish on you.
  • #69
  • Sep 2, 2020 8:32am Sep 2, 2020 8:32am
Quoting Rearden
Learning Remember to check how price reacted under similar circumstances in the near past. No need to theorise and create a new rule out of it . But just observe and see the difference {image} {image}
good start here... but use the ranges created by the rules of the exercise.

yes, price holds or even does a small range at the breakout location and then pushes versus deep retracement. let's see what this actually means to our trading over time.
Be bullish on you.
  • #70
  • Edited 2:57pm Sep 2, 2020 2:30pm | Edited 2:57pm
03 September

The price is below #2 and #3. Long at the open .

I had measured the retracement (August 19- Aug 21) of the previous up swing and found that it went up from 78 Fib. I was checking how price reacted previously after break and hold (Aug 18). I wanted to enter one more position when price was at the 1821 area but waited for the close of the day.

Reviewing the mental state during drawdown, I still find it stressful to hold when price is this much in the red. But the fact that its still in a up move in an UP bias week gives me confidence.

? if this is natural retracement of price, should I target S50 and close it or see if it runs a bit more to the 1985 area. In the last instance price broke and held above the previous swing high
? there is a mini swing at the 1928 area. is it better to bail this out there and then reenter when price provides the next opportunity
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  • #71
  • Sep 2, 2020 2:33pm Sep 2, 2020 2:33pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} i suggest not using plus and minus in this way. It seems you're talking about it being good and bad where price is. Price isn't good or bad, it's just moving around. i suggest journal how you feel about the movement of price against you or with you. associate emotions with the chart so you recognize them. ask questions about what you are seeing and let time and repetition answer the questions. Use + and - to associate what you did good and bad.
Yes G. Thats what I meant... factors that are still in favour of long trade and factors that are not. And what you said makes perfect sense.... Price isnt good or bad.
  • #72
  • Sep 2, 2020 8:13pm Sep 2, 2020 8:13pm
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Quoting gejordan
{quote} good start here... but use the ranges created by the rules of the exercise. yes, price holds or even does a small range at the breakout location and then pushes versus deep retracement. let's see what this actually means to our trading over time.
  • #73
  • Sep 3, 2020 6:18am Sep 3, 2020 6:18am
Quoting Rearden
{image}{image} {quote}
Good... so what we are seeing isn't deep retracement, we see shallow retracement or no retracement. What if we miss them? Well, we just wait on the retracement after breakout and participate. What if we still get faked out? then we learn where to close. This is what we are figuring out now. The way we become confident and certain in it is to do this exercise and experience it over and over. We take big hits to appreciate how much a little hit saves our account.

What we are experiencing now is deep retracement. We might get stopped and take a huge loss. We don't know. But the exercise will beat into you that we don't know where price will go, or will it deep or shallow retrace, but we can shut down wrong attempts for small losses, watch what is happening and then take chances from good places based on what we have learned.

Does this make sense?
Be bullish on you.
  • #74
  • Edited 8:29am Sep 3, 2020 7:07am | Edited 8:29am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Good... so what we are seeing isn't deep retracement, we see shallow retracement or no retracement. What if we miss them? Well, we just wait on the retracement after breakout and participate. What if we still get faked out? then we learn where to close. This is what we are figuring out now. The way we become confident and certain in it is to do this exercise and experience it over and over. We take big hits to appreciate how much a little hit saves our account. What we are experiencing now is deep retracement. We might get stopped and take...
Yes absolutely.

Especially "But the exercise will beat into you that we don't know where price will go, or will it deep or shallow retrace, but we can shut down wrong attempts for small losses, watch what is happening and then take chances from good places based on what we have learned."
.

Being in the trade and getting involved in the move changes the attitude and helps to observe price better. At times(learning from your thought process in the other thread) I feel that I still have a lot more to improve the 'seeing the chart perspective' than see it from an entry/stop loss/target perspective. But I can really feel a lot of improvement from the past. Especially when the focus change from winning trade/Losing trade to following rules and understand whats happening in the chart rather than shoot blindly.
  • #75
  • Edited 2:38pm Sep 3, 2020 2:27pm | Edited 2:38pm
04 September

The price came back up and touched the S50. Doing so, it has made two HLs which is first in 2-3 days. Since price is still in up move, I have placed a PO at #2. I didnt place any order at S50 because I have an order there already.

?price came back to S50. Will it go back down from here. If so, I may feel dissapointed that I didnt cut the loss for one position which came to BE.
? is it better to place a PO around 1800 BRN which is towards the bottom of the smaller channel rather than the #2 location with increased risk.
?Since the price is at the Bottom of the UP swing, will it go back up all the way to my target and continue the up move.
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  • #76
  • Sep 3, 2020 5:29pm Sep 3, 2020 5:29pm
Quoting Rearden
04 September The price came back up and touched the S50. Doing so, it has made two HLs which is first in 2-3 days. Since price is still in up move, I have placed a PO at #2. I didnt place any order at S50 because I have an order there already. ?price came back to S50. Will it go back down from here. If so, I may feel dissapointed that I didnt cut the loss for one position which came to BE. ? is it better to place a PO around 1800 BRN which is towards the bottom of the smaller channel rather than the #2 location with increased risk. ?Since the price...
And with this, you just broke the rules for TP for the exercise. I know your ego wants more, but we are trading pennies. Put the ego aside, follow the rules and learn something. You just reinforced changing your rules.

It may go up there, but will you be able to buy a car or pay your rent if it goes there? So follow the rules and beat some more important lessons you have yet to learn into your system.
Be bullish on you.
  • #77
  • Sep 3, 2020 6:55pm Sep 3, 2020 6:55pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} And with this, you just broke the rules for TP for the exercise. I know your ego wants more, but we are trading pennies. Put the ego aside, follow the rules and learn something. You just reinforced changing your rules. It may go up there, but will you be able to buy a car or pay your rent if it goes there? So follow the rules and beat some more important lessons you have yet to learn into your system.
Hi G,
The price came down from the bigger swing which started at the 1990 area. That is why I kept the target there as part of following the rule. Yes there was a mini swing at the 1920ish area but I thought the price came all the way down and started to go up now. Will it be an emotional decision to somehow bail out at BE at 1920ish area than waiting and seeing it go up there(But after your comments in the previous post, I remembered" We never know what price will do.... we never know if price will go up there again).

Also, checking post 1252, it was better to bring down the TP to the last swing.

I overthought in this instance and broke the rule. I should have just brought the TP down to the last mini swing high area to reinforce the good habits.
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  • #78
  • Sep 3, 2020 9:22pm Sep 3, 2020 9:22pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi G, The price came down from the bigger swing which started at the 1990 area. That is why I kept the target there as part of following the rule. Yes there was a mini swing at the 1920ish area but I thought the price came all the way down and started to go up now. Will it be an emotional decision to somehow bail out at BE at 1920ish area than waiting and seeing it go up there(But after your comments in the previous post, I remembered" We never know what price will do.... we never know if price will go up there again). Also, checking post...
If you want to go for the biggest swing, that's fine, just do it every time. Or, exit each entry at the swing from which it came. So the lowest entries would be where you show and the upper entries at the very top. Or, do it the way I'm showing.

The purpose of the exercise is to keep the entries and TPs constant and without thought. That way you can move your thinking to other areas. You can't move your thinking to other areas if you are thinking about what might be.
Be bullish on you.
  • #79
  • Sep 6, 2020 6:40am Sep 6, 2020 6:40am
Weekly learnings (Aug 31-Sept -04)

Technical

1. Remember to check how did price react when it approached a particular price level last time. Also, remember to check for patterns in price actions and how did it react and what is price doing now compared to the earlier actions etc(E.g how did it breakout from the earlier actions (Refer Post #72)
2.I learned about different Break out follow up methods and importance of not changing rules based on recent trades.(Selecting and sticking to a method consistently is important)
3. Check what happens when price break out to BRN or other important locations in future etc.
4. the candle with long wick on Sept 1 was shown by G earlier around May 2nd week as a clue for high probability of getting down to the swing low.
5. Looking at chart, Entering at the pivot every time is not optimal(yellow arrow). There were entries with lesser risk from the edges. But for the exercise it helps to take away the thought of entry criteria. the takeaway is watch chart from the perspective of risk.(I need to figure out ways to lose as little as possible in case it moves the way I don't want it to. )

Emotional

1.When I was not able to get an entry on Tuesday because the price didnt retrace to my pivot I felt disappointed that I am not in the trade. It came back and triggered my entry. I was not overly stressed as I had the experience from two weeks back in my mind and was watching whats happening in the chart and how to handle it well.
2. I learned that what is required to trade successfully is an attitude to react to in accordance with what is happening in chart and not cry over spilt milk(What if we miss them? Well, we just wait on the retracement after breakout and participate. What if we still get faked out? then we learn where to close.). Now I know this theoretically. Have to obtain that attitude by doing it repeatedly and watch how mind reacts to it.
3. Sometimes even when watching price the question that comes to mind is where is the best entry. I have to see the price actions and bigger picture to understand this myself(? These entries of the exercise might be showing me that most entries are pointless, good entries in alignment with a chart carry less risk, negative emotion, and are less stressful. More data points needed to confirm.)
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  • #80
  • Sep 6, 2020 2:32pm Sep 6, 2020 2:32pm
Weekly BIAS: Bullish
Move: Up

The price is above pivot and S50. I have two positions from #2 and #3 area. So i will not enter any new positions.

During the week before last, the price ranged like this and pushed higher from the same area. I have not changed the TP since its already at the immediate swing above the current one.
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