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AUD/USD

  • #106,641
  • Sep 1, 2020 7:55pm Sep 1, 2020 7:55pm
Down under is going down under
  • #106,642
  • Sep 1, 2020 8:00pm Sep 1, 2020 8:00pm
Quoting Hammad12345
{quote} i have been trading with a spread of 3 pips for AUDUSD, do you mean your spread keeps changing? sory im an amateur so i just wanna know. sorry i didn't get your post. regards
oh was talking about FxFtManager and how he had buys at 72500 and sold some at 7200 .. = 50 pip spread plus lot differences , if you can trade out of that you are a master. better off not doing it it in the first place though.
grist for the mill
  • #106,643
  • Sep 1, 2020 11:43pm Sep 1, 2020 11:43pm
Quoting Nightowl96
aud/usd shorted for several billions at 15:15 UTC+2 big moves ahead! several aud/x pairs shorted for trillions thank me later!

Hi Nightowl96,

Could you provide a reliable the source?

Thank you

Sincerely
Michał Gręda
  • #106,644
  • Sep 2, 2020 1:32am Sep 2, 2020 1:32am
Quoting danizani95
Long {image}
Moved SL near BE and got hit
  • #106,645
  • Sep 2, 2020 1:33am Sep 2, 2020 1:33am
Quoting JackJones
{quote} pfft what is RR, you only make good money when you buy 'out of the money' i repeat! don't sell lower than you buy, double down on the range extremes.. {image}
What do you mean?
  • #106,646
  • Sep 2, 2020 2:24am Sep 2, 2020 2:24am
Quoting danizani95
{quote} Moved SL near BE and got hit
Ah, ok. Se we printed 4 red 4h candles, so lets see where this last Candle one will go. Why not surprised for another “buy the dip” momentum on news later on...

But while SP500 goes on like this a reversal seem tough of AUD, still waiting for the SP 500 reversal, but that has been a waiting since may so not really a plan :-)

AUD stocks got a nice revelsal this night to while gdp data maybe not the best..
  • #106,647
  • Sep 2, 2020 2:31am Sep 2, 2020 2:31am
Quoting krst8
{quote} Ah, ok. Se we printer 4 red 4h candles, so lets see where this last Candle one will go. Why not surprised for another “buy the dip” momentum on news later on... But while SP500 goes on like this a reversal seem tough of AUD, still waiting for the SP 500 reversal, but that has been a waiting since may so not really a plan :-) AUD stocks got a nice revelsal this night to.
Now we could move either way. Up above 0.7414 to revert again or down to be bearish till the end of the cycle. be cautious
  • #106,648
  • Sep 2, 2020 7:45am Sep 2, 2020 7:45am
Quoting danizani95
{quote} Now we could move either way. Up above 0.7414 to revert again or down to be bearish till the end of the cycle. be cautious
yes agree, in the middle. Today news was still a interesting surprise. The NFP report against the estimate was about 300% wrong depending on how you see it.

This makes me believe that Fridays USA data also may be completely wrong. What is more "fun" here is that several of the bigger firms today and yesterday was releasing news about these numbers. I cant believe for a second that the big firms that have lots of industry contacts did not know about this errors in the "anticipated" results. The game continues then, and also to buy more Stocks the same firms suggest..

Still keeping the short position from last week around 55 and below in small chunks, still in large draw-down but to committed already. Planning to keep until Friday as first goal, aiming a retest again of mid of bollinger band, shoulr be around 77.26, so long way to go.
  • #106,649
  • Sep 2, 2020 4:32pm Sep 2, 2020 4:32pm
Average out my position from 732 and all at 7305, took a small long and back to a large short again at 735...

We hit the lower BB at 4 hours so was expecting a bounce. Was not expecting sp500 to sky rocket again in the evening however so little concerned again. But still, the higher the stock bubble the more space down...
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  • #106,650
  • Edited 8:48pm Sep 2, 2020 8:36pm | Edited 8:48pm
Quoting danizani95
{quote} What do you mean?
there is no meaning, only interpretations.

oh i see, RR.. Well what is an acceptable RR? how do you calculate that? personally each pair is unique so unless playing random chance you have 'the edge', a semi-known outcome and if so how do you know that? inside knowledge, gut instinct or experiences? oh you 'back-tested' - then if something is 100 times the mean then why should history predict the outcome? it can't. so for me there is only forward testing, the rest is reminisce

it's like driving on hte highway reacting to events only based on the past... sometimes people survive against the odds in spite of themselves and sometimes they don't, shrug, making an arbitrary RR no much more than a comfort blanket imo
grist for the mill
  • #106,651
  • Sep 3, 2020 12:50am Sep 3, 2020 12:50am
Quoting krst8
Average out my position from 732 and all at 7305, took a small long and back to a large short again at 735... We hit the lower BB at 4 hours so was expecting a bounce. Was not expecting sp500 to sky rocket again in the evening however so little concerned again. But still, the higher the stock bubble the more space down... {image}
took profit again at 730x level. Expecting a bounce here again in the morning, if not will sell again later on, aiming for 7200 level
  • #106,652
  • Sep 3, 2020 1:38am Sep 3, 2020 1:38am
Quoting JackJones
{quote} there is no meaning, only interpretations. oh i see, RR.. Well what is an acceptable RR? how do you calculate that? personally each pair is unique so unless playing random chance you have 'the edge', a semi-known outcome and if so how do you know that? inside knowledge, gut instinct or experiences? oh you 'back-tested' - then if something is 100 times the mean then why should history predict the outcome? it can't. so for me there is only forward testing, the rest is reminisce it's like driving on hte highway reacting to events only based...
For me a good RR is more than 1:1 because even if you are correct 50% of the time it's enough to be profitable. It's very simple...
  • #106,653
  • Sep 3, 2020 7:30am Sep 3, 2020 7:30am
Quoting danizani95
{quote} For me a good RR is more than 1:1 because even if you are correct 50% of the time it's enough to be profitable. It's very simple...
well you said it - why not R:R based on fibos (the dark art), 34:55 perhaps?
grist for the mill
  • #106,654
  • Sep 3, 2020 8:15am Sep 3, 2020 8:15am
Quoting JackJones
{quote} well you said it - why not R:R based on fibos (the dark art), 34:55 perhaps?
Infact i use fibo for that reason. Below 50 for buy, above 50 for sell. It seems we agree.
  • #106,655
  • Sep 3, 2020 9:49am Sep 3, 2020 9:49am
Might go up tomorrow in Asia then back down
  • #106,656
  • Edited Sep 4, 2020 9:55am Sep 3, 2020 11:27pm | Edited Sep 4, 2020 9:55am
Quoting danizani95
{quote} Infact i use fibo for that reason. Below 50 for buy, above 50 for sell. It seems we agree.
50 is just playing round numbers like betting on black.. fibo is the sum of its priors, a natural law that manifests manipulated prices

Quoting Torzone
Might go up tomorrow in Asia then back down
heys its friday again and 3 sessions sold off maybe the lack of last weeks friday retrace had conseques
grist for the mill
  • #106,657
  • Sep 4, 2020 9:17am Sep 4, 2020 9:17am
What's going to happen in the next week? Good luck
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  • #106,658
  • Sep 4, 2020 10:03am Sep 4, 2020 10:03am
Closed my short
  • #106,659
  • Sep 4, 2020 12:10pm Sep 4, 2020 12:10pm
Short again from 727 level. Again aim for 72 level. Mid BB band, want to see another test of tje mid BB band.

todays jump of tje mid band was rather expected as this has happend for the last 4 months. But belive the extended travel band in au and stock falling can open upp 705 levels...
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  • #106,660
  • Sep 4, 2020 12:18pm Sep 4, 2020 12:18pm
Quoting krst8
Short again from 727 level. Again aim for 72 level. Mid BB band, want to see another test of tje mid BB band. todays jump of tje mid band was rather expected as this has happend for the last 4 months. But belive the extended travel band in au and stock falling can open upp 705 levels... {image}
Please be careful with sell positions.

0.72707 is the current Volume Adjusted Price.

I expect more buying from that level.

Maybe sellers could be at 0.73192

All the best!
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