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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #7,621
  • Aug 30, 2020 10:55am Aug 30, 2020 10:55am
Quoting Coreg2004
With EU we still have two scenarios in play...It's hard to decide which one will take shape unless I am missing something... {image}
EU is likely to go to just shy of 1.21 first before correcting lower.
  • #7,622
  • Aug 30, 2020 10:57am Aug 30, 2020 10:57am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Yeah, let's shock FF nation again... {image}
Great chart Coreg. That's a nice road map for the weeks ahead.
  • #7,623
  • Aug 30, 2020 12:54pm Aug 30, 2020 12:54pm
Gold, daily chart shows an interesting configuration. The general consensus is that gold will go higher from here. keep an eye on TL and S @ 1900 and 1865, a break of key TL and S zone can change the technical picture.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,624
  • Aug 30, 2020 1:31pm Aug 30, 2020 1:31pm
Quoting shahab8b
Gold, daily chart shows an interesting configuration. The general consensus is that gold will go higher from here. keep an eye on TL and S @ 1900 and 1865, a break of key TL and S zone can change the technical picture. {image}
shahab8b, I don't trade gold but you inspired me to bring our TA to another level...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,625
  • Aug 30, 2020 1:56pm Aug 30, 2020 1:56pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} shahab8b, I don't trade gold but you inspired me to bring our TA to another level... {image}
Thanks for the great chart. I actually have a wave 4 count for that triangle, but I am also suspicious of it as being a B wave in a corrective formation that might surprise everyone (i.e. a deeper wave 4).
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  • #7,626
  • Aug 30, 2020 4:50pm Aug 30, 2020 4:50pm
AUDUSD, I'm watching this for a possible short scalp
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  • #7,627
  • Aug 31, 2020 6:17am Aug 31, 2020 6:17am
Quoting shahab8b
AUDUSD, I'm watching this for a possible short scalp {image}
AUDUSD, short trade update
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,628
  • Aug 31, 2020 6:22am Aug 31, 2020 6:22am
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, possible long setup {image}
EURUSD, long trade update, sl (+80) tp @ 1.2050
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,629
  • Edited 5:47pm Aug 31, 2020 12:59pm | Edited 5:47pm
Maybe last year high will be a nice place to TP on the Buy...
1.3513
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot at Aug 31 17-49-08.png Size: 44 KB
Le$$ I$ More
  • #7,630
  • Aug 31, 2020 5:10pm Aug 31, 2020 5:10pm
Quoting shahab8b
USDCHF, it's difficult to buy USD in this market condition, but I like the idea of long USDCHF around 0.90 {image}
USDCHF, long trade update, sl to b/e
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,631
  • Aug 31, 2020 5:24pm Aug 31, 2020 5:24pm
Quoting Roszey
Maybe last year high will be a nice place to TP on the Buy... 1.3513 {image}
true, I have 1.35 as tp.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,632
  • Aug 31, 2020 5:46pm Aug 31, 2020 5:46pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} true, I have 1.35 as tp. {image}
Awesome.. lets do this..!!
Le$$ I$ More
  • #7,633
  • Aug 31, 2020 6:00pm Aug 31, 2020 6:00pm
DXY final destination i think before BULLS jump on board.
The SW Zone looks fresh for a test
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot at Aug 31 22-58-14.png Size: 45 KB
Le$$ I$ More
  • #7,634
  • Aug 31, 2020 6:18pm Aug 31, 2020 6:18pm
Quoting Roszey
{quote} Awesome.. lets do this..!!
what is your entry? If I get stopped, I'll be looking to go long again around 1.3250
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,635
  • Sep 1, 2020 4:48am Sep 1, 2020 4:48am
GU, looking at the monthly chart, it looks like going to 1.3750 before correcting lower.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,636
  • Sep 1, 2020 4:51am Sep 1, 2020 4:51am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} true, I have 1.35 as tp. {image}
GU, long trade, moved sl to +70, tp 1.35
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,637
  • Edited 6:44am Sep 1, 2020 5:00am | Edited 6:44am
Quoting shahab8b
USDCHF, it's difficult to buy USD in this market condition, but I like the idea of long USDCHF around 0.90 {image}
USDCHF, another long attempt @ 0.90
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,638
  • Sep 1, 2020 5:19am Sep 1, 2020 5:19am
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, possible long setup {image}
EU, long trade, moved sl to (+150), tp 1.2050
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,639
  • Sep 1, 2020 5:33am Sep 1, 2020 5:33am
GU, long trade, almost there tp @ 1.35, look for a short @ 1.35
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,640
  • Sep 1, 2020 6:35am Sep 1, 2020 6:35am
Just a few notes on the concept of probability, risk to reward ratio, and profitability. (this may help some new traders reading this thread)

You don't need to have a strategy that has 70-80% success rate to be profitable. Although it will definitely help.
For example, you can be profitable with a strategy with 40% success rate and RRR of 2:1
for any trading system:
(probability of win x profit %) - (probability of failure x loss %)
if that equation is positive you are profitable in long run


As a practical example, let's look at a short trade setup on GBPUSD,
if you plan to go short @ 1.35 with sl of 20 pips and tp of 80 pips, you have a RRR of 4:1
assuming the probability of that setup is 30%, with 1% risk per trade
3 x 4% - 7 x 1%= 5%
that means if you trade such strategy 10 times in a month, you will make 5% return even with a 30% success rate
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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