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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

  • #921
  • Aug 30, 2020 5:37am Aug 30, 2020 5:37am
after losing 750 dollar i have reached the same conclusion as you did . the reality in forex is you have to have a strategy for losing as you have a strategy for winning keeping yor emotion in check is the biggest factor in trading forex
  • #922
  • Aug 30, 2020 5:44am Aug 30, 2020 5:44am
after losing 750 dollar i have reached the same conclusion as you did . the reality in forex is you have to have a strategy for losing as you have a strategy for winning keeping yor emotion in check is the biggest factor in trading forex
  • #923
  • Edited 6:10am Aug 30, 2020 6:00am | Edited 6:10am
Guys, I think we are not using very important thing CeeSo said - this strategy/approach is time sensitive. In your tests try to add time. I see on my stats that if for example 0.25 touched on US session late the probability to touch 0.5 is much less that if that happened early on London session. Also Fridays late touches not working good. Let's say First London Touch works good in most cases. Another thing I have found that Asian Session Touch can be "fake" one.
Yes we can filter using global trends but there is some issue with them. Indies are laggy so there is 100% chance to open long at the top and short at the bottom.
And last thing - time sensitive as I understand is not only for entries, but for exits! If too much time passed and there is no move then close.
So if we have even 50% clean probability all that filters can add 5% more I think.
Observer effect
  • #924
  • Aug 30, 2020 6:22am Aug 30, 2020 6:22am
Quoting BWilliam
The exact numbers is not important. The manner the number is structured is important. The interpretation of these numbers is most important. So far, the structure and interpretation on this thread is off, missed it's true potential. There won't be much value with the wrong approach. IMHO. Feel free to disagree.
Totally agree! We can use High/Low to see if closed on next zone level or just Close and the stats will be different. Spread, broker, time even season matter. But longs within 0.25 - 0.5 works much better than shorts in that range for sure.
Observer effect
  • #925
  • Aug 30, 2020 6:47am Aug 30, 2020 6:47am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} When you say "percentage gain", do you mean the MAXIMUM/MINIMUM that price traveled between Open and Close, or simply the percentage change of Close versus Open?
simply the percentage change of Close versus Open
(close - open) / open x 100%
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  • #926
  • Aug 30, 2020 6:58am Aug 30, 2020 6:58am
Quoting wizardblue
{quote} That Indy Saves some effort with Excel if I can be sure how to understand the results. When you say "Percentage Gain within" do you mean that price never travelled past this % and closed back inside. So both the High or Low and the close was within each % range? Is there an easy way for you to share some of the formulae so we can check the logic, if you're not interested in sharing the source code? I think Im more interested in how far price is likely to move ie the High/Low in a day to hit a TP, rather than where price closes.
Percentage gain within -0.75% mean total no of days which price travel from open price to low of the day is within 0.75%

Below is the logic behind it.
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  • #927
  • Aug 30, 2020 7:02am Aug 30, 2020 7:02am
Quoting hgbcreator
{quote} hi mate great tools can you add how much bars gain for exp -1.5 +1.5 like that other level ? cheers {image}
Sorry I didn't get it.
  • #928
  • Aug 30, 2020 7:06am Aug 30, 2020 7:06am
Quoting BWilliam
The exact numbers is not important. The manner the number is structured is important. The interpretation of these numbers is most important. So far, the structure and interpretation on this thread is off, missed it's true potential. There won't be much value with the wrong approach. IMHO. Feel free to disagree.
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exact numbers are required for consistent statistic hence also important
The manner the number is structured is important.
The interpretation of these numbers is most important.
  • #929
  • Aug 30, 2020 7:11am Aug 30, 2020 7:11am
Quoting prozor7
"4. You have to stop giving a sh#t what other people think of your trading." can't emphasize how important above sentence is!!!!! I have 5 rules in trading 1. simple 2. systematic 3. do not assume 4. critic 5. do not panic stick to yours plan and rules
good guidance there.

yes.
  • #930
  • Aug 30, 2020 7:11am Aug 30, 2020 7:11am
Quoting lilizen
after losing 750 dollar i have reached the same conclusion as you did . the reality in forex is you have to have a strategy for losing as you have a strategy for winning keeping yor emotion in check is the biggest factor in trading forex
emotions for me is one of the biggest battles.
  • #931
  • Edited 9:01am Aug 30, 2020 7:27am | Edited 9:01am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} You are way over reaching on what CeeSo actually presented. He never gave any kind of a trading system. He made it clear he that he has no intention of going down that rabbit hole. He never said anything about what happens statistically AFTER 0.5% is breached. His statistics were pointing out that for the specific data that he collected, price will CLOSE some large percentage of the time within the range of 0.5 to -0.5% of the Open value--THAT IS ALL! He did not elaborate on what price does between breaching 0.5% and the Close, but you are...
Thank you!. I don't know how many times I have to repeat these points. It is getting tedious so I appreciate your response.

I think it will help people to think of Statistical Analysis like being in a relationship. At least that is the way I think of it.

Although all women have similar characteristics. You are going to be a very unhappy man if you treat all women the same with generalizations.

ie: All women love to cook and clean the house. Good luck with that see you in divorce court and say goodbye to half of your life.

Each market will have its own statistical characteristics and if you want to have a happy life and not lose half of your account you better know that market well.

Statistics only give us the Framework of "probabilities" vs "possibilities".

I will use an actual example from Friday.

Early on Friday morning, my analysis suggested that it was going to be one of the 15% days that trend and keep going the AUDUSD was the strongest trending market up approx 1% and already above the 1% levels vs the GBPUSD was at the .50 level.

At the time I was searching for a trend trade to go Short USD I had to make a decision. Should I buy the GBPUSD or the AUDUSD?

This was an easy decision for me because I could see that the GBPUSD still had room to run to the 1% level VS the AUDUSD which statistically was probably going to have a more difficult time going beyond the 1% level.

Will this always be the case? No, but this is how statistics can be extremely useful to you to build trading contexts and make better decisions.

The statistics are not a trading system they are a framework to build better trading systems. I don't know how many times I have to say this.

Each person must use the statistics based around their own personal style of trading but I can assure you of one thing. IF you do not understand the probabilities of your market or your wife you are going to lose boatloads of money.

btw, Coincidentally on Friday night, my wife wanted to go out and do something romantic so because I took the time to know her likes and dislikes and the things she really enjoys it was a very enjoyable night for her and in turn the last part of the evening was very enjoyable for me.
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  • #932
  • Aug 30, 2020 7:53am Aug 30, 2020 7:53am
I thought this thread might turn into something interesting but it's not. It's too one dimensional. If the price rises .25% is it going farther up or down? Who knows, all you know is the more it goes up the higher the chance it will eventually go down. This is not tradeable info. If the EURUSD goes up 20 pips that's 0.168% What next??
You are much better to use Bollinger Bands which tell you dynamically where the price is 95% of the time. It's like a roadway with the right and left curbs and a centerline! Watch how the price reacts to it. If it goes outside and comes back in you have a very high probability the price will continue like a slingshot back in. If the top band is flat and the price hits it it will drop like a brick most of the time. When the mid band is rising you are in an uptrend and when the price falls and touches it the price jumps almost always. The key is probabilities. Don't bet the farm on any one trade.
Enter Signature
  • #933
  • Edited 9:04am Aug 30, 2020 8:18am | Edited 9:04am
I have almost completed the FTMO challenge and I will post my final screenshot when I do. I only do this to help motivate struggling traders but I will be honest there is definitely a dopamine rush in doing this. I am not sure yet if that is a good thing or a bad thing for my long term results.
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  • #934
  • Aug 30, 2020 9:06am Aug 30, 2020 9:06am
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} ... statistics can be extremely useful to you to build trading contexts and make better decisions. The statistics are not a trading system they are a framework to build better trading systems. I don't know how many times I have to say this.
I guess till the cows come home

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  • #935
  • Aug 30, 2020 9:28am Aug 30, 2020 9:28am
Quoting CeeSo
the GBPUSD was at the .50 level.
so. what did you do? did you short it and get lucky or did you follow the statistics and longed it to that you fall into the 70% hitrate ? Because if you hit the 0.5 level then there is statistically 70% chance that the day closes above, NOT under. Doesn't mean you'll be profitable, because it doesn't say how much above or below. that's all the difference

Quote
He never gave any kind of a trading system. He made it clear he that he has no intention of going down that rabbit hole
that's because he has no trading system. As I said previously the levels are just some pretty TA to support his way of trading with price action. Basically ANY indicator could replace those. You have to stop deify those levels. I don't think his teachings are useless but there is no real solid basis upon these level otherwise he would give straight answers that correspond to real statistics

if you cannot define a clear trading system with rules and subsequently statistics that derive from them then you're not really "using" those levels IMHO, that's too convenient (use them sometimes, but sometimes not...on which basis? please expand, define rules)
  • #936
  • Aug 30, 2020 9:35am Aug 30, 2020 9:35am
Quoting ionone
{quote} so. what did you do? did you short it and get lucky or did you follow the statistics and longed it to that you fall into the 70% hitrate ? {quote} that's because he has no trading system. As I said previously the levels are just some pretty TA to support his way of trading with price action. Basically ANY indicator could replace those. You have to stop deify those levels. I don't think his teachings are useless but there is no real solid basis upon these level otherwise he would give straight answers that correspond to real statistics if...
put a 3 degree reversal indicator then it will works perfectly
  • #937
  • Aug 30, 2020 9:41am Aug 30, 2020 9:41am
Quoting CeeSo
This is my first forum post but I am not a newbie. I have lost about 300,000$ trading forex over the course of 5 years and it has been a huge struggle, to say the least but I kept persevering and educating myself and this year I am finally profitable to the tune of $130,000. After all this time and stress (and finally a very good mentor) I figured out some basic truths about forex trading. 1. You have to Master Money Management first and foremost. Forget EVERYTHING else and learn to lose like a professional. I spent tens of thousands of dollars...
Thank you for your post, I need sensible informations as beginner trader
  • #938
  • Aug 30, 2020 9:48am Aug 30, 2020 9:48am
Quoting failinforex
{quote} put a 3 degree reversal indicator then it will works perfectly
what's that?
  • #939
  • Aug 30, 2020 11:03am Aug 30, 2020 11:03am
Quoting CeeSo
In regards to the discussion on the AUD above I never said every pair is 85% I said you had to do each pair separately because they all have their own characteristics. 85% is just a generalization for discussion purposes. Here are the AUD current frequency distributions. Also, remember all these numbers mean is the % at close not the % of the high and lows of the day. So to settle the discussion^ of course, you should do each pair individually and of course, you should redo each pair once every 30 days {image}

CeeSo, not sure why you keep posting inaccurate information. Not sure if it is intentional or by accident. The actual numbers are in green below between .5 and -.5. You keep including the .75 amount.

67 and 68% is BIG difference between 85%. Again, there may be value in your information and this thread. But the 85% number is very misleading, it is much less than this regardless of what time frame used.
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  • #940
  • Aug 30, 2020 11:49am Aug 30, 2020 11:49am
Quoting SunSaltwater
{quote} CeeSo, not sure why you keep posting inaccurate information. Not sure if it is intentional or by accident. The actual numbers are in green below between .5 and -.5. You keep including the .75 amount. 67 and 68% is BIG difference between 85%. Again, there may be value in your information and this thread. But the 85% number is very misleading, it is much less than this regardless of what time frame used. {image}
AUDUSD should b 65.38% over 260 bar (one year).
Correct me if I am wrong.
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