What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex | Page 46 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Your and My Lessons Learned Losing and Gaining in Trading 5 replies

things you learned from forex and improved your life 12 replies

The most important lesson’s I’ve learned trading Forex, so far... 15 replies

Attachments: What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex
Exit Attachments

What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

  • #901
  • Aug 29, 2020 9:42am Aug 29, 2020 9:42am
Quoting Asw
{quote} I also get 80% over 365 bars. {image}
Thank you Asw. Appreciate that.
  • #902
  • Aug 29, 2020 9:49am Aug 29, 2020 9:49am
Quoting ionone
{quote} well the "85%" stat is based on the assumption that 85% of the time price will close between +0.5 and -0.5 but if price doesn't cross +0.5 or -0.5 then what good does it make ? It means price will simply stay between -0.5 and 0.5 most of the time but you don't know how close from 0.5 or -0.5, how is it useful? Maybe it will stay around -0.4 for 85 out of 100 trades. then the "85%" stat is correct but how do you trade that successfully ?
I humbly disagree.

First of all it looks like it's not 85%, it's less than that figure over a longer time frame.

Secondly, I get what you are saying; however, I am not trying to create a trade based on if price goes through .5 or -.5, then short or long back to the .5 or -.5 level because the stats show that it will return x percentage of time - this is NOT what I am trying to do. CeeSo also was very clear that is not how he trades. As CeeSo said, what you can do with these stats (and others), is use this as a guide to build stops and targets around knowing that price will 70+% of the time close within .5 or -.5.

Again, I may not use this at all in my trading. I just thought it was an interesting thread and wanted to confirm that I was looking at things correctly because I could not get to the 85% stat that CeeSo stated multiple times.

It looks like that has been confirmed, so not sure if I have anything further to add to this thread.

Cheers.
  • #903
  • Aug 29, 2020 10:35am Aug 29, 2020 10:35am
I have read here the starting thread as I was going to start a new thread which I will
for all those traders approaching trading, I also want to share few golden rules made after loosing a lot.

1 RISK MANAGEMENT: once you lose too much on a trade you have put your life uphill. (small sizes)
2 CUT YOUR LOSS ASAP (give yourself an amount) and cut it before it hits your SL, you know it when it's going to hit it.
3 WAIT, WAIT, WAIT... it doesn't matter if you lose a few pips , wait for a pattern to be confirmed... possibly on large timeframes
4 DON'T Play money that you need, consider you are chucking them away, so you have. aright psychological mindset
5 Give Yourself rules and RESPECT them.... like a military would do.
6 Don't give up and I totally agree USE DEMO Until you Can'tbe consistent for months and remember that also then one single oversized trade can wipe
the work of a year....

may everyone prosper and be safe
  • #904
  • Edited 12:21pm Aug 29, 2020 11:06am | Edited 12:21pm
Quoting SunSaltwater
{quote} Thank you Asw. Appreciate that.
80% is a high number that can be used as a TP target. If anyone is day trading, you wouldn’t want your TP higher than 0.5.
  • #905
  • Edited 5:50pm Aug 29, 2020 11:41am | Edited 5:50pm
Quoting ionone
{quote} well the "85%" stat is based on the assumption that 85% of the time price will close between +0.5 and -0.5 but if price doesn't cross +0.5 or -0.5 then what good does it make ? It means price will simply stay between -0.5 and 0.5 most of the time but you don't know how close from 0.5 or -0.5, how is it useful? Maybe it will stay around -0.4 for 85 out of 100 trades. then the "85%" stat is correct but how do you trade that successfully ?
Maybe if I repeat this and you actually do it, you will have a clue about TRYING your own IDEA for how to create an edge from the statistics.
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Maybe you should read, or re-read it if that applies, this post and try doing a study similar to what is outlined there.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #906
  • Aug 29, 2020 11:44am Aug 29, 2020 11:44am
you can factor in implied volatility
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #907
  • Aug 29, 2020 11:53am Aug 29, 2020 11:53am
Quoting ionone
{quote} well the "85%" stat is based on the assumption that 85% of the time price will close between +0.5 and -0.5 but if price doesn't cross +0.5 or -0.5 then what good does it make ?
No, CeeSo made no ASSUMPTION when he presented his numbers: He presented values based on some specific dataset!

He made it clear that he was just putting that specific information out to the public because he found it was helpful for HIM in developing a trading plan, and he thought it important enough to share it so that others could perhaps be convinced that it would be worthwhile to do their own analyses and see if they also find the information useful in their own trade plan.

Quoting ionone
It means price will simply stay between -0.5 and 0.5 most of the time but you don't know how close from 0.5 or -0.5, how is it useful? Maybe it will stay around -0.4 for 85 out of 100 trades. then the "85%" stat is correct but how do you trade that successfully ?
First of all, it appears to me that you are confusing prices STAYING between some levels with CLOSING within some level of the open.

So if you see nothing useful about knowing that price stays within some range some percentage of the time, then why don't you do the study of HOW price moves within that range and MAYBE you WILL find something useful in that analysis for "trading that successfully"?
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #908
  • Aug 29, 2020 2:57pm Aug 29, 2020 2:57pm
In regards to the discussion on the AUD above

I never said every pair is 85% I said you had to do each pair separately because they all have their own characteristics. 85% is just a generalization for discussion purposes.

Here are the AUD current frequency distributions. Also, remember all these numbers mean is the % at close not the % of the high and lows of the day.

So to settle the discussion^ of course, you should do each pair individually and of course, you should redo each pair once every 30 days
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD.JPG Size: 162 KB
  • #909
  • Aug 29, 2020 11:04pm Aug 29, 2020 11:04pm
Quoting CeeSo
In regards to the discussion on the AUD above I never said every pair is 85% I said you had to do each pair separately because they all have their own characteristics. 85% is just a generalization for discussion purposes. Here are the AUD current frequency distributions. Also, remember all these numbers mean is the % at close not the % of the high and lows of the day. So to settle the discussion^ of course, you should do each pair individually and of course, you should redo each pair once every 30 days {image}
How is your FTMO trading going? I would think that you don't need them since by all accounts you are already successful at what you do outside of trading.
  • #910
  • Edited 1:51am Aug 30, 2020 12:27am | Edited 1:51am
A simple indicator calculates the statistic of percentage gain for Open to Close.
The result may slightly different for different brokers.
Let me know if the calculation wrong.
Attached Image
Attached Image

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Statistic - Open Close Percent Gain.ex4   16 KB | 447 downloads
  • #911
  • Aug 30, 2020 12:43am Aug 30, 2020 12:43am
The BEST is EURCHF.
94.62% within +/- 0.50%
Attached Image
  • #912
  • Edited Aug 31, 2020 12:42am Aug 30, 2020 1:50am | Edited Aug 31, 2020 12:42am
Here is the indicator calculates the statistic of percentage gain for Open to High & Low.
The result may slightly different for different brokers.
Let me know if the calculation wrong.
Attached Image
New update version at https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post13139681
  • #913
  • Aug 30, 2020 2:00am Aug 30, 2020 2:00am
Quoting SunSaltwater
{quote} I humbly disagree. First of all it looks like it's not 85%, it's less than that figure over a longer time frame. Secondly, I get what you are saying; however, I am not trying to create a trade based on if price goes through .5 or -.5, then short or long back to the .5 or -.5 level because the stats show that it will return x percentage of time - this is NOT what I am trying to do. CeeSo also was very clear that is not how he trades. As CeeSo said, what you can do with these stats (and others), is use this as a guide to build stops and targets...
yes I know it's not 85% it's closer to 70% which makes his claim even falser
his system is so vague and unhelpful, define some rules please. I defined some rules and came with the exact same opposite logic as he did
meaning if you break 0.5% level, the close will 70% of the time be above 0.5%.

that's real stats

his levels mean nothing statistically. It's just a support for his price action trading strategy. He could very well use RSI or pivots and trade the same way
statistics are defined with very clear testable, repeatable, rules and probabilities
which he obviously lacks here
  • #914
  • Aug 30, 2020 2:02am Aug 30, 2020 2:02am
Quoting Ah-Ong
A simple indicator calculates the statistic of percentage gain for Open to Close. The result may slightly different for different brokers. Let me know if the calculation wrong. {image}{image} {file}
hi mate
great tools can you add how much bars gain for exp -1.5 +1.5 like that other level ?

cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled-1.jpg Size: 717 KB
  • #915
  • Aug 30, 2020 2:27am Aug 30, 2020 2:27am
Excuse my ignorance!

But is this related at all to murray maths?
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 murrey-math.ex4   9 KB | 272 downloads
  • #916
  • Aug 30, 2020 2:32am Aug 30, 2020 2:32am
Quoting Mtinifx
Excuse my ignorance! But is this related at all to murray maths? {file}
I don't think so.
Here they are trying to use pure statistics to find and edge.
  • #917
  • Aug 30, 2020 4:26am Aug 30, 2020 4:26am
Quoting Ah-Ong
A simple indicator calculates the statistic of percentage gain for Open to Close. The result may slightly different for different brokers. Let me know if the calculation wrong. {image}{image} {file}
When you say "percentage gain", do you mean the MAXIMUM/MINIMUM that price traveled between Open and Close, or simply the percentage change of Close versus Open?
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #918
  • Edited 4:54am Aug 30, 2020 4:35am | Edited 4:54am
Quoting ionone
{quote} yes I know it's not 85% it's closer to 70% which makes his claim even falser his system is so vague and unhelpful, define some rules please. I defined some rules and came with the exact same opposite logic as he did meaning if you break 0.5% level, the close will 70% of the time be above 0.5%. that's real stats his levels mean nothing statistically. It's just a support for his price action trading strategy. He could very well use RSI or pivots and trade the same way statistics are defined with very clear testable, repeatable, rules and probabilities...
You are way over reaching on what CeeSo actually presented.

He never gave any kind of a trading system. He made it clear he that he has no intention of going down that rabbit hole.

He never said anything about what happens statistically AFTER 0.5% is breached. His statistics were pointing out that for the specific data that he collected, price will CLOSE some large percentage of the time within the range of 0.5 to -0.5% of the Open value--THAT IS ALL! He did not elaborate on what price does between breaching 0.5% and the Close, but you are implying that he did. As I and others have said before, if you think that information MIGHT be useful for YOU to develop a trade plan around, then why don't you simply do that instead of posting misleading information? If you think it is all nonsense, then feel free to express that opinion as well, and then just move on, because there is nothing more here for you.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #919
  • Aug 30, 2020 5:25am Aug 30, 2020 5:25am
Quoting Ah-Ong
Here is the indicator calculates the statistic of percentage gain for Open to High & Low. The result may slightly different for different brokers. Let me know if the calculation wrong. {image}{file}
That Indy Saves some effort with Excel if I can be sure how to understand the results. When you say "Percentage Gain within" do you mean that price never travelled past this % and closed back inside. So both the High or Low and the close was within each % range?

Is there an easy way for you to share some of the formulae so we can check the logic, if you're not interested in sharing the source code?

I think Im more interested in how far price is likely to move ie the High/Low in a day to hit a TP, rather than where price closes.
  • #920
  • Aug 30, 2020 5:27am Aug 30, 2020 5:27am
Quoting saha007
Hi CeeSo, thank you for posting valuable info. Could you please enlighten us more on how to use Frequency Distribution Statistics in deciding stop loss as you mentioned earlier?
Can anyone answer this curious question? showing with a trade example may even be better. Thank you in advance.
0 traders viewing now