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Forex - A negative sum game for losers

  • #441
  • May 16, 2020 10:01pm May 16, 2020 10:01pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} No, it is absolutly not the same. Retail forex trading has absolutly no productive element in it. It is just a speculative bet on a currency in a zero sum game. By doing it, you provide zero value to the world... any other service or business startup will provide value, but maybe not enough to make a living out of it. It this isn't true, the business model would lack the core element of what a business model is.... not so in retail forex. In any other real productive or service business model working harder increases the chances of success,...
This isn't true, traders collectively do add value to the economy. Even if trading is a zero sum game, trading helps establish the worth of assets , bonds, currencies, etc. You take the markets out and tomorrow you have no economy. Nobody knows what anything is worth and so trade stops. cheers
When you see it, BET big.
  • #442
  • May 19, 2020 1:00pm May 19, 2020 1:00pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} This isn't true, traders collectively do add value to the economy. Even if trading is a zero sum game, trading helps establish the worth of assets , bonds, currencies, etc. You take the markets out and tomorrow you have no economy. Nobody knows what anything is worth and so trade stops. cheers
Are you serious? What is your age?

So a company not listed on a stock market has no value and nobody is able to establish it's worth?
So you need specualtive retail forex trading to know what is the worth of the product you produce and sell?
So you need speculative forex trading to facilate trade.... really?

90% of all trading is just cannibalising the productive sector and is completly obsolete.

Simple answer.... a big No.... to all of them.
  • #443
  • May 19, 2020 1:08pm May 19, 2020 1:08pm
Quoting Donettie
{quote} Would, you just give $10000 to a startup cos he has a sound business model? ....
I not only would.... I did.
  • #444
  • Jul 12, 2020 7:07pm Jul 12, 2020 7:07pm
Quoting Samer1970
this is a real example of how the 10% gurus are moving the market while the 90% retail traders could not do the same area A..... many red and green bars are meaning that there is a fight between the buyers and the sellers. the volumes are still small and there are not clear direction, but the PSAR indicator is still showing that the sellers is littler stronger. it took the pair more than 30 bars to move only 310 points on zone area B, wow, the buyers now moved before the market to close bcz the retail traders now will close their devices and will...
So what is the problem? A PSAR robot would catch that change in trend direction - while you were sleeping. Nice pips in your pocket. It would of cause require additional indicators as the PSAR indicator is lousy in ranging markets.

Yea yea - i know, trading is a nul sum and everybody is loosing etc. bla bla.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #445
  • Jul 12, 2020 7:27pm Jul 12, 2020 7:27pm
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} You want proof? this is easy to find. But if you understand the math and the odds in Forex such proof is no longer necessary. But anyway... here is what you have to do to get your proof (besides math): 1. Simply go on all large social trading sites where the "best" traders post their trading accounts. Most of them sell signals and you can copy their trades for a small monthly fee. But it's not necessary..... to pay. 2. Find the top 20 traders in each site and take screenshots of their performance on a regular basis, every month....
I recently hooked up on a telegram channel with more than 1000 followers. True, there are at most 10 leaders. Then there are hundreds of readers - like me, I never comment or show my accounts. I could be a leader and many people could. You can't use the argument that there are few leaders. But then there are all the people that don't understand anything. "Sir can you please explain - sir how do I - sir what is an indicator". They are part of your statistics. They will never be able to understand the game and they will all be losers. Forex do attract people that hope to win in the lottery.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #446
  • Jul 13, 2020 7:54am Jul 13, 2020 7:54am
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Are you serious? What is your age? So a company not listed on a stock market has no value and nobody is able to establish it's worth? So you need specualtive retail forex trading to know what is the worth of the product you produce and sell? So you need speculative forex trading to facilate trade.... really? 90% of all trading is just cannibalising the productive sector and is completly obsolete. Simple answer.... a big No.... to all of them.
Try being nice, you might learn something.
  • #447
  • Edited 4:33pm Jul 13, 2020 1:15pm | Edited 4:33pm
Hudi the dude with a mission: to debunk forex and save people LOL Whatever.

The ESMA leverage regs are BS:
1. What matters is the actual leverage deployed in trading, ie. not over sizing.
2. High leverage allows greater inclusion by giving a chance to lower income people.
3. If the dude reasoned even better he would realize that the reason behind the ESMA regs. isn't to save people from ruin, but to avoid diverting their money from the lotteries from which governments make way more money. So, they are motivated by their own financial interest; just like everybody.

Fortunately there are still reliable 500:1 brokers even for euro residents.
The only real victims are the euro brokers.
Practitioner of the cryptic trading arts
  • #448
  • Aug 25, 2020 10:31am Aug 25, 2020 10:31am
Quoting Endoephemera
Hudi the dude with a mission: to debunk forex and save people.
1 So if over sizing is the problem, why do you need leverage greater than what ESMA provides? You contradict yourself. ESMA leverage rules don't prevent oversizing of your bets. You should trade with far less leverage.

2 Greater inclusion? Give me a break..... you mean greater chance to rip off people with little money anyway. Above 99 % of all retail fx traders lose money over a periode of 5 years . Those in profit can still be explained by pure luck, by hedging real business or investment currency exposure.

3 A weak argument - I think for 95% of all retail forex traders the lottery would provide better chances with far less effort, even though lottery per se is a stupid thing to do and mainly used by poor people.

A brocker who offers 500:1 is a bucket shop - run, as fast as you can.
Euro brokers are victims.... well that is good news. Hope they are all going out of business. World would be better off.
  • #449
  • Aug 27, 2020 9:57pm Aug 27, 2020 9:57pm
Leverage is just a tool. If you get good at calling small, safe directional moves, high leverage only makes you more money faster. The key is to get to where you can routinely make accurate predictions of directional moves. Nice and safe small moves, like 10 pips. When you can do that, increase lot size and use high leverage, because leverage and lot size is what determines your profit, right? That 13 pip move is gonna happen whether you are trading micro-lots at 50:1 or full size lots at 400:1. Don't worry about lot size or leverage size, just get good at predicting 10 pip moves with a high degree of accuracy, because when you can do that, you can decide how much money you make off each trade. Otherwise it's like spending all your time trying to decide what size plane to buy before you get your pilots license....

Stock and index option trading also puts leverage to work for you. But again, you have to get good at predicting directional movement. Otherwise it is no different than choosing red or black on the roulette wheel.

Regardless, don't take advice from people that are not where you want to be!! Who would give you better advice on woodworking, a cabinet maker or someone who has never even cut a piece of wood? If trading is not for you, then it's not for you, but it should be YOU that makes that determination, not someone else.

Just my two pips.....
  • #450
  • Edited Sep 10, 2020 2:11am Sep 9, 2020 6:21am | Edited Sep 10, 2020 2:11am
Quoting moneymaker2
The key is to get to where you can routinely make accurate predictions of directional moves. .... Stock and index option trading also puts leverage to work for you. But again, you have to get good at predicting directional movement. .....

  1. There is no data that supports that a forex retail trader is able to predict directional movements accurately
  2. Prediction quality isn't even high enough to overcome transaction costs in the long run
  3. Over a periode of 5 years and regular trading, very close to 100% of all accounts lose money, the rest can still be explained by luck only.
  4. While a long term profitiable forex retail trader with an approach based on price prediction is theoretically possible, all data so far proves beyond the slightes doubt that such a trader doesn't exist in reality.
  5. Leverage is one of the biggest mathematical disadvantages for retail traders in this negative sum game.

  1. You are free to trade and lose your money - nobody hinders you
  2. I am free to predict that you will lose your money with a probabiltiy of about 70% in 3 months, 80% in a year, 90 % in about 2 years and about 99.1% over 5 years.
  3. You are not free to lie to other people to claim that this is a question of skill and lure in new victims. Many studies showed that there is no measureable training effect in regards to price prediction quality based on information you are gathering from public sources or price action aka chart technique for trading currencies. The ones who spread this lie are usually the one benefitting from it.
  4. Brokers, trainers, affiliate marketers etc make hundreds of millions a year globally - all this financed by losses of retail traders.

Retail forex trading is a negative sum game for losers.

  • #451
  • Sep 9, 2020 6:34am Sep 9, 2020 6:34am
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} There is no data that supports that a forex retail trader is able to predict directional movements accurately Prediction quality isn't even high enough to overcome transaction costs in the long run Over a periode of 5 years and regular trading, very close to 100% of all accounts lose money, the rest can still be explained by luck only. While a long term profitiable forex retail trader with an apprach based on price prediction is theoretically possible, all data so far proves beyond the slightes doubt that such a trader doesn't exist in reality....
Then what the f are you doing here if you believe a profitable retail trader is a myth, a fantasy and sci-fi?

Also you provide zero proof to your claims (statements like "many studies showed" is same like Trumps "people say"). Maybe a good start for you could be here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/c...rket_at_least/
  • #452
  • Sep 9, 2020 12:42pm Sep 9, 2020 12:42pm
Quoting Samer1970
only sell if the swap-short id greater than the swap-long, and vice versa, buy only when the swap-long is greater than the swap-short.
Hi! Could you please clarify a little?
For example swap short is -4.25 and swap long is 0.25 = short?
And swap short -0.16, swap long -5.07 = long?
Observer effect
  • #453
  • Sep 9, 2020 7:32pm Sep 9, 2020 7:32pm
Quoting mades
{quote} Then what the f are you doing here if you believe a profitable retail trader is a myth, a fantasy and sci-fi? Also you provide zero proof to your claims (statements like "many studies showed" is same like Trumps "people say"). Maybe a good start for you could be here: https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/c...rket_at_least/
So you are a successful forex trader,living the dream? Let me answer that for you....NO.
  • #454
  • Sep 10, 2020 4:02am Sep 10, 2020 4:02am
Quoting edge540
{quote} So you are a successful forex trader,living the dream? Let me answer that for you....NO.
You know jack shit about me. Just a full on negativity person.
  • #455
  • Sep 10, 2020 4:42pm Sep 10, 2020 4:42pm
Quoting mades
{quote} You know jack shit about me. Just a full on negativity person.
Correct,but I do know this about you,you are not a successful trader.I'm not "a full on negativity person" rather a full on realist.
Keep dreaming and deluding your self about the dream of success in forex...it won't happen.
  • #456
  • Sep 10, 2020 8:46pm Sep 10, 2020 8:46pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Retail forex trading is a negative sum game for losers.
Would you be willing to let me work with you for an hour or so session completely no strings attached to diagnose and show you a few things...ya know, for science and shit...i swore i would never get dragged into trying to teach in this arena but nearly everything currently available is completely useless and/or downright fraudulent and if it would shut you up for a minute it's worth trying... it's not hard to see how you've become so disillusioned with trading to the point of becoming a full blown rigtard...we've all blown up and lost hope and came looking for some pity/encouragement/direction but you are the worst type of crybaby and quitter...you waltz into the most difficult of endeavors known to mankind for a hot minute before becoming a subject matter expert and spending the rest of your career educating from the rail...

You do realize most big banks get maybe one star trader every blue moon worthy of giving increased funds to that can actually turn a sizeable profit for the department, don't you? most of these entities are putting client orders in and doing the usual skimming to make money...most bank traders have no phucking clue what the market will do they can only manipulate in the short term which sometimes they must do to operate with billions upon billions worth of orders...momentary confusion/misdirection/liquidity grabs/bad spot maneuvering are all likely tactics used that are very short duration but still wreck the weak and rigid...

and most hedge funds will lose money in currency or turn very small percent yearly returns...granted some funds have enormous amounts at their disposal and a few percent can be quite a bit but even then many can't turn a consistent profit worth the effort and risk tolerance for all involved...there are maybe two funds ever that managed to turn insane numbers over the long run...once again...there are people at home in their underwear that can trade circles around most bank traders and algos that are using high freq to hyperscalp micropips...Forex gives you access to instantaneous interbank execution that will not even slip major pairs at all until what would be considered astronomical lot sizes for retail...also the execution fees are cheap and simplified compared to the chitshow i watch some stock traders dealing with...speaking of which many of them are also trading bum ass stocks with horrific looking candlestick charts that gap all over hell and back and likely being manipulated orders of magnitude compared to major pairs...

I don't get around here much but i don't recall ever hearing any of your personal trading stories etc...you're usually chopping someone else down or digging up old posts to discredit people or posting the groundbreaking stats showing most of the herd will ultimately lose out to the much smaller minority of apex market participants...real shocker that last one...you must be new to our planet and the human race where almost everyone is just another regular person with a meager income, normal house, normal car or much less that will die with maybe enough to cover their own funeral... ask yourself if the reason you'll never hope to find ANY level of success in ANY financial markets is because you're so special central banks, Deutsche and the broker all team up to hunt your micro account or maybe it has more to do with the goofball pushing those little buttons behind your computer screen...

My one time offer to extend you help purely as a science experiment and only for the satisfaction of proving you wrong about you won't last forever...who knows...you might could implement some of my help better than i do if you just put in half the effort figuring out your base trading style as you do bitching and moaning
  • #457
  • Sep 11, 2020 6:29am Sep 11, 2020 6:29am
when I was a rookie, I started learning with huge hopes, but as the years went by and the more I learned about forex trading, the pink mist began to clear up.
the point is to pick up the market as if it were random.
and that is the right way.
the technical analysis assumes that the market is not made up of random movements, I would rather say that the market is not always random.
the traditional technical analysis will not work, but you have certainly already figured this out. there are contexts in the market that can be traded profitably, they do not require indicators.
  • #458
  • Sep 11, 2020 5:07pm Sep 11, 2020 5:07pm
Quoting tiborf71
when I was a rookie, I started learning with huge hopes, but as the years went by and the more I learned about forex trading, the pink mist began to clear up. the point is to pick up the market as if it were random. and that is the right way. the technical analysis assumes that the market is not made up of random movements, I would rather say that the market is not always random. the traditional technical analysis will not work, but you have certainly already figured this out. there are contexts in the market that can be traded profitably, they...
Profound.......I assume you trade better than your bad grammar?
  • #459
  • Sep 12, 2020 12:41am Sep 12, 2020 12:41am
Quoting edge540
{quote} Profound.......I assume you trade better than your bad grammar?
sorry for my bad english.
I use google translate.
  • #460
  • Sep 12, 2020 1:44am Sep 12, 2020 1:44am
If the markets are random then why are there so many positively and negatively correlated forex pairs?

https://www.myfxbook.com/de/forex-market/correlation
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