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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

  • #721
  • Aug 23, 2020 4:01pm Aug 23, 2020 4:01pm
Quoting CeeSo
So by now many of you have seen just how random day trading is but did you know that swing trading was not a heck of a lot better? Here are the weekly Frequency Distributions over a 4 year period. That is right folks this market barely moves plus or minus 2% a WEEK. {image}
Thanks for this thread Ceeso... some great information to dwell into...

It may sound preposterous, as a Scalper, after few years of watching just the price action on naked charts and stats, I have been learning to see a tiny bit of order in that randomness.

My issues are with my dopamine rushes (or rather mind blackouts ) to cut a loss when it was so frigging obvious to me. I have withdrawn all my funds/profits from trading account and working with a shoestring amount since last few months until I fix my psychological issues, but to no avail so far, it has been a pursuit of pain for the last few months, even though I managed (Been damn lucky!!) $100K+ in profits this year (last two years, account was quite small, profits were less than $10K per year). I was sure that unless I fix my issues, I will lose all my funds.

Attached the TE in my profile. I would be very grateful to hear suggestions to fix me.

I seem to have acquired a very little skill in reading the charts, but it would be awesome, if I can find a mentor, who is a very experienced and profitable trader, to polish this diamond in the rough :-)

Thank you very much.
  • #722
  • Aug 23, 2020 4:13pm Aug 23, 2020 4:13pm
Quoting emonts
{quote} HI, No it is daily, only for the stats, crossing individual levels i used H1 bars. BR
Hello,

Ok thanks, Thanks for the indie as well!
  • #723
  • Aug 23, 2020 6:19pm Aug 23, 2020 6:19pm
Quoting emonts
Hi, Coded an indicator for statistics. Gives percentages between levels. level 0 = open price. level 1 = open price + 0.25 percentage of open price level -1 = open price - 0.25 percentage of open price. And so on. You can also select ADR as range. level 1 = open price + 25.0 percentage of ADR. Levels are calculated based on H1 bars within a day. Be aware that many days will also mean many H1 bars. History and no holes needed. I did not test if not enough bars and or holes, what happens. Default 100 days, should be ok. {image} BR {file}
Thanks for this, please can you code something for the weekly open on a H4 chart?
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #724
  • Aug 23, 2020 6:27pm Aug 23, 2020 6:27pm
Quoting CeeSo
So by now many of you have seen just how random day trading is but did you know that swing trading was not a heck of a lot better? Here are the weekly Frequency Distributions over a 4 year period. That is right folks this market barely moves plus or minus 2% a WEEK. {image}
Thank you for this. Which currency is this and how did you determine your time period for analysis?

I did a rough check on my broker's weekly dollar index from Jan 2013 till last week, this is what i found out, 90% of the time weekly prices move between -0.52% to 2.51%.

Attached Image
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #725
  • Aug 23, 2020 8:09pm Aug 23, 2020 8:09pm
Quoting lordgbengs
{quote} Thank you for this. Which currency is this and how did you determine your time period for analysis? I did a rough check on my broker's weekly dollar index from Jan 2013 till last week, this is what i found out, 90% of the time weekly prices move between -0.52% to 2.51%. {image}
Good statistic but it might just be because the dollar index has been in a bull market since 2013. We don't know what the next seven years are gonna look like.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #726
  • Aug 24, 2020 12:56am Aug 24, 2020 12:56am
I guess 85 % we all need learn from this pal.

Regards,
Arturke
  • #727
  • Aug 24, 2020 1:10am Aug 24, 2020 1:10am
Quoting srby
{quote} Thanks for this thread Ceeso... some great information to dwell into... It may sound preposterous, as a Scalper, after few years of watching just the price action on naked charts and stats, I have been learning to see a tiny bit of order in that randomness. My issues are with my dopamine rushes (or rather mind blackouts ) to cut a loss when it was so frigging obvious to me. I have withdrawn all my funds/profits from trading account and working with a shoestring amount since last few months until I fix my psychological issues, but to no avail...
Trading is all about your mindset and your ability to bear psychology pain when distribution starts. Ecstasy level is reached when you hit peak of accumulation or distribution. It is at this point when you are feeling high, greed takes over. So it's a lose-lose game until you have deep pockets to bear psychology pain and be able to take profits at a good time.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #728
  • Aug 24, 2020 3:32am Aug 24, 2020 3:32am
Quoting ursinho4711
{quote} Thanks for your work to evaluate the data. Just one question: wouldn't it be more meaningful to analyze high/low instead of open/close?
The "meaningfulness" is context dependent. Your intended application can be quite different from my intended application, which could lead to the same analysis being "meaningful" to one of us but not to the other.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #729
  • Aug 24, 2020 5:09am Aug 24, 2020 5:09am
Quoting emonts
Hi, Coded an indicator for statistics. Gives percentages between levels. level 0 = open price. level 1 = open price + 0.25 percentage of open price level -1 = open price - 0.25 percentage of open price. And so on. You can also select ADR as range. level 1 = open price + 25.0 percentage of ADR. Levels are calculated based on H1 bars within a day. Be aware that many days will also mean many H1 bars. History and no holes needed. I did not test if not enough bars and or holes, what happens. Default 100 days, should be ok. {image} BR {file}
Can you share the other indie you are using, please? Thanks
  • #730
  • Aug 24, 2020 5:18am Aug 24, 2020 5:18am
Quoting Jordi
{quote} Can you share the other indie you are using, please? Thanks
Hi,

You can find in this thread.

Attachment g
BR
It is not important how often you fall down, but how often you get up again
  • #731
  • Aug 24, 2020 5:20am Aug 24, 2020 5:20am
Quoting Jordi
{quote} Can you share the other indie you are using, please? Thanks
Hi,

You can find in this thread.

Forex_Persentages_CEESO_B.1

BR
It is not important how often you fall down, but how often you get up again
  • #732
  • Aug 24, 2020 8:31am Aug 24, 2020 8:31am
Quoting Neogenesis
. Jim Simons makes his money by being a crook and front running orders. Again you’re hearing this from someone in banking. Look up their court cases. He’s not the genius the markets make him out to be. Still incredibly smart but the stories of him solving eloquent mathematical equations and being a godlike entity of maths and physics is... bulllshit. We’d fuck up the markets too if we knew where everyone was positioned and could set our orders ahead of them, and then pay to silence anyone who challenged us. I suggest everyone looks up the Hound...
I always find it humorous when traders in chat rooms on the internet say silly things against billionaire traders.

The reality is any trader that is making billions of dollars is 1000x better than us.

This is another part of our EGO that needs to be checked and we need to work on ourselves and why we need to be right or validate our lack of success.

When I was a losing trader I spent a tremendous amount of energy looking for excuses why the best traders in the world were rich and I was broke. My mentor taught me that was just my ego and part of becoming a success is to not have an ego that will hinder our open-mindedness to change.

We are not moral soldiers we are capitalists and if you are in this business for any other reason but to make the most amount of money possible I suggest you find another business.

The trader with the most amount of money WINS no matter how they get it! That is the business we are in.
  • #733
  • Aug 24, 2020 8:33am Aug 24, 2020 8:33am
Quoting emonts
Hi, Coded an indicator for statistics. Gives percentages between levels. level 0 = open price. level 1 = open price + 0.25 percentage of open price level -1 = open price - 0.25 percentage of open price. And so on. You can also select ADR as range. level 1 = open price + 25.0 percentage of ADR. Levels are calculated based on H1 bars within a day. Be aware that many days will also mean many H1 bars. History and no holes needed. I did not test if not enough bars and or holes, what happens. Default 100 days, should be ok. {image} BR {file}
nice indi, thx.
but its a pitty you cant see ADR stat visuable as horizontal lines.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #734
  • Edited 11:29am Aug 24, 2020 8:48am | Edited 11:29am
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} I always find it humorous when traders in chat rooms on the internet say silly things against billionaire traders. The reality is any trader that is making billions of dollars is 1000x better than us. This is another part of our EGO that needs to be checked and we need to work on ourselves and why we need to be right or validate our lack of success. We are not moral soldiers we are capitalists and if you are in this business for any other reason but to make the most amount of money possible I suggest you find another business. ...
Mmm. Irony is you are displaying your own ego in replying to me. Somebody else cannot be right, if they are, they're just a trader in a chat room.

One quick Google search will yield a lot of results re Jim Simons: https://www.google.com/search?q=rena...hrome&ie=UTF-8

ZeroHedge also posted their court case recently in which they were fined multiple times over the course of years, for front running the market. Whenever a news source has attempted to post about their misgivings, they manage to sue the source and get the articles removed from the internet, despite it not being libel. They are very savvy.

Facts, not opinions.

I'm also not just a trader in a chat room. I earn a good crust with a top investment bank. Hence why I know the real story of Jim Simons (who has done incredibly well to be where he is, and I respect Renaissance's success - you misunderstand, success is success). And why I also know banks don't use your 'statistical probabilities' as algos; I see them first hand and work with them. Facts, not opinions.

This could be a good thread or turn into trolling very quickly. Be humble!
  • #735
  • Aug 24, 2020 9:48am Aug 24, 2020 9:48am
Quoting birdland
{quote} nice indi, thx. but its a pitty you cant see ADR stat visuable as horizontal lines.
Hi,

I must have somewhere an ADR indi with lines/area's, not exactly only lines. But have on a laptop i do not use anymore.
Will search and post later.

BR
It is not important how often you fall down, but how often you get up again
  • #736
  • Aug 24, 2020 10:16am Aug 24, 2020 10:16am
Quoting Neogenesis
I'm also not just a trader in a chat room. I earn a good crust with a top investment bank.
Yeah, I see you mention this every 6 seconds why does it matter. I still think you have an ego issue you are not facing.

I at least admit I have an ego issue that I am working on daily

In that light and in the spirit of giving credibility to this thread and my thesis. Here are my updated FTMO challenge results

both for EGO and for the threads CREDIBILITY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 29 KB
  • #737
  • Aug 24, 2020 10:22am Aug 24, 2020 10:22am
Quoting Neogenesis
I suggest everyone looks up the Hound of Hounslow. Smart dude.
I have just finished reading the book on Hound of Hounslow (Flash Crash: A Trading Savant) that detailed his story. Fascinating read!

He did not seem to adhere to the conventional wisdom of trading, no wonder, he amassed around $60+ million in 10 years as a retail trader, even if the profits he made from the illegal spoofing trades were excluded! Lo and Behold, those big boys made him a scapegoat.

But I was gobsmacked to hear that he lost almost all that fortune by investing in some shady business deals/investments.

Gonna read "Flash Boys", which is referenced in the above book, as it seems to be about the extent Banks and HTFs go to make profits in trading.

Thank you.
  • #738
  • Edited 11:12am Aug 24, 2020 10:28am | Edited 11:12am
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} Yeah, I see you mention this every 6 seconds why does it matter. I still think you have an ego issue you are not facing. I at least admit I have an ego issue that I am working on daily In that light and in the spirit of giving credibility to this thread and my thesis. Here are my updated FTMO challenge results both for EGO and for the threads CREDIBILITY {image}
It's becoming childish in here. We are all here to help and learn.

You started out by helping and finished by attacking people. Hope you resolve the ego you said you're working on because there's clearly some good inside you, and I think you have good trading skill, with some uniqueness.

FWIW, I've posted evidence of £20k+ trading days in the past. You aren't talking to 'some trader in a chat room' or someone who isn't profitable and/or failing. And that's why I'm out of here - no time to waste on arguing.

Banking is shit. Despite whatever prestige people think comes with it. I mention it to dispel the constant notions and fantasies floated on this site. Even you mentioned that banks use your algo/approach - and I said they don't.

All the best..
  • #739
  • Aug 24, 2020 10:34am Aug 24, 2020 10:34am
Quoting srby
{quote} I have just finished reading the book on Hound of Hounslow (Flash Crash: A Trading Savant) that detailed his story. Fascinating read! He did not seem to adhere to the conventional wisdom of trading, no wonder, he amassed around $60+ million in 10 years as a retail trader, even if the profits he made from the illegal spoofing trades were excluded! Lo and Behold, those big boys made him a scapegoat. But I was gobsmacked to hear that he lost almost all that fortune by investing in some shady business deals/investments. Gonna read "Flash Boys",...
V interesting and recommend all to read...

He played the same game as the likes of Jim Simons, other big HFTs and got nailed. It's easy to create your own rules for a game and win - this was the salient point I was trying to make earlier, before I got attacked. I respect the intelligence of someone who managed to navigate the battlefield, with less information/data and infrastructure, and still win.
  • #740
  • Aug 24, 2020 10:48am Aug 24, 2020 10:48am
"Dopamine & Duck waving contest" would be a better title for this thread. This is how everything ends with FF. Sad.
on a postive roll...
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