Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2653 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #53,041
  • Aug 24, 2020 1:44am Aug 24, 2020 1:44am
ia1979

a few stats from 1st June until last Fri 21st Aug.

08-00 15 minute bar break.
60 trades. 43 winners of 5 points. 13 wins off a second break. 4 fails (multiple breaks whip).
longest winning streak = 15.
longest 2nd break wins 2, <<<<<<<< wins or losses????
1 fail randomly placed.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,042
  • Aug 24, 2020 2:35am Aug 24, 2020 2:35am
a nice start to the week.
Cable 08-00 15 min bar break.
low broke for +5%.
Attached Image

t 08-35
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,043
  • Aug 24, 2020 4:32am Aug 24, 2020 4:32am
Quoting billytt
ia1979 a few stats from 1st June until last Fri 21st Aug. 08-00 15 minute bar break. 60 trades. 43 winners of 5 points. 13 wins off a second break. 4 fails (multiple breaks whip). longest winning streak = 15. longest 2nd break wins 2, <<<<<<<< wins or losses???? 1 fail randomly placed.
Morning Billy,

That's really decent going. Cheers for sharing. I remember that 15 day winning streak well. So ideally, you want to try the break no more than twice in 1 day, as that seems to have the best odds. If it fails twice, go play a game of golf or something and come back tomorrow.

Today the 12-4am range has broken, high, low, and high again. I am long just now. If that fails and it breaks low, I'll go short, but that's it for today. According to a quick visual back test, it should ideally break no more than 2-3 times in 1 day. Otherwise you end up getting a day like last Monday which was a total shambles (for me anyway )
  • #53,044
  • Aug 24, 2020 5:11am Aug 24, 2020 5:11am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Morning Billy, That's really decent going. Cheers for sharing. I remember that 15 day winning streak well. So ideally, you want to try the break no more than twice in 1 day, as that seems to have the best odds. If it fails twice, go play a game of golf or something and come back tomorrow. Today the 12-4am range has broken, high, low, and high again. I am long just now. If that fails and it breaks low, I'll go short, but that's it for today. According to a quick visual back test, it should ideally break no more than 2-3 times in 1 day. Otherwise...
just my experience with 08-15 billy bar so far: i take the first trade and most of the time it worked great, took my 5-7 pips.

if it fails i always double the next trade (i tried to hedge, but it confuses me too much;-))
that worked always and brought me back into the BE most of the times.
only one time i lost -14pips, then doubled on the second and -28. so all in all -42 on this miserable trading sequency.

but thats part of the game...

i am happy with it overall and it fits to my other trading setups.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #53,045
  • Aug 24, 2020 5:27am Aug 24, 2020 5:27am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Morning Billy, That's really decent going. Cheers for sharing. I remember that 15 day winning streak well. So ideally, you want to try the break no more than twice in 1 day, as that seems to have the best odds. If it fails twice, go play a game of golf or something and come back tomorrow. Today the 12-4am range has broken, high, low, and high again. I am long just now. If that fails and it breaks low, I'll go short, but that's it for today. According to a quick visual back test, it should ideally break no more than 2-3 times in 1 day. Otherwise...
Yes, that is what you do. Hope you are well.

once we have stats we can then play them.
If we start with X on Monday, we want X+ by Friday.
we have a win , we can increase the trade size as in compounding. we can then afford to have a loss without the need to double up etc.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,046
  • Aug 24, 2020 5:28am Aug 24, 2020 5:28am
Quoting birdland
{quote} just my experience with 08-15 billy bar so far: i take the first trade and most of the time it worked great, took my 5-7 pips. if it fails i always double the next trade (i tried to hedge, but it confuses me too much;-)) that worked always and brought me back into the BE most of the times. only one time i lost -14pips, then doubled on the second and -28. so all in all -42 on this miserable trading sequency. but thats part of the game... i am happy with it overall and it fits to my other trading setups.
Well said, just one bad day with whip can hurt.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,047
  • Aug 24, 2020 5:54am Aug 24, 2020 5:54am
Claudia if you are around, got out with a small gain near the daily pivot. Think we might get to 1.32 today?
  • #53,048
  • Aug 24, 2020 5:59am Aug 24, 2020 5:59am
Quoting ia1979
Claudia if you are around, got out with a small gain near the daily pivot. Think we might get to 1.32 today?
I'm here. Bit worried about Billy and his whip but we'll leave him with that lol.
Break above the pivot at 3133 could see 3200 which is DR1 area as you know. Does look a long way away though.
  • #53,049
  • Aug 24, 2020 6:04am Aug 24, 2020 6:04am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} I'm here. Bit worried about Billy and his whip but we'll leave him with that lol. Break above the pivot at 3133 could see 3200 which is DR1 area as you know. Does look a long way away though.
Brilliant .

Yeah, price appears to be messing around near the pivot, as it does. Just waiting for a convincing break to go long again. If going short at today's low, price has a lot of support to clear to make the ADR. So far, to me it looks like we might be in for an up day. Price might reach and stall at 1.3150. And that would give today a half decent range.
  • #53,050
  • Aug 24, 2020 6:07am Aug 24, 2020 6:07am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Brilliant . Yeah, price appears to be messing around near the pivot, as it does. Just waiting for a convincing break to go long again. If going short at today's low, price has a lot of support to clear to make the ADR. So far, to me it looks like we might be in for an up day.
As always see what NY does - but if we do break the pivot then we got the usual messing at the 50 level. Agree it looks like an up day but ....
  • #53,051
  • Aug 24, 2020 6:17am Aug 24, 2020 6:17am
@ Lem - I don't give up I will wake you up !! Got racing in town this afternoon - nothing much of interest there but I'll not doubt have a play.
  • #53,052
  • Aug 24, 2020 7:43am Aug 24, 2020 7:43am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} As always see what NY does - but if we do break the pivot then we got the usual messing at the 50 level. Agree it looks like an up day but ....
Was expecting it to go a little bit higher before the drop, but ah well.
  • #53,053
  • Aug 24, 2020 9:32am Aug 24, 2020 9:32am
Quoting billytt
ia1979 a few stats from 1st June until last Fri 21st Aug. 08-00 15 minute bar break. 60 trades. 43 winners of 5 points. 13 wins off a second break. 4 fails (multiple breaks whip). longest winning streak = 15. longest 2nd break wins 2, <<<<<<<< wins or losses???? 1 fail randomly placed.
some more,
1st may to 29th May.
20 trades. 15 winners with 5 points. 4 wins off second break, 1 fail (whip)
longest win run was 5, and second break run 2.

So 1st May until Fri 21st Aug 80 trades...... 58 wins, 17 wins off 2nd break . 5 fails.

the stats are the easy part,
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,054
  • Aug 24, 2020 10:05am Aug 24, 2020 10:05am
Quoting billytt
{quote} some more, 1st may to 29th May. 20 trades. 15 winners with 5 points. 4 wins off second break, 1 fail (whip) longest win run was 5, and second break run 2. So 1st May until Fri 21st Aug 80 trades...... 58 wins, 17 wins off 2nd break . 5 fails. the stats are the easy part,
Cheers Billy.

Assuming if the bar was less than 15, you adjusted it to 15 for the purposes of these stats?

Was a max bar size used to filter out trades that would have been too big to potentially counter?

Thanks again.
  • #53,055
  • Aug 24, 2020 10:10am Aug 24, 2020 10:10am
Quoting billytt
{quote} some more, 1st may to 29th May. 20 trades. 15 winners with 5 points. 4 wins off second break, 1 fail (whip) longest win run was 5, and second break run 2. So 1st May until Fri 21st Aug 80 trades...... 58 wins, 17 wins off 2nd break . 5 fails. the stats are the easy part,
some more.
April 1st to 30th april
22 trades. 19 wins. wins 2nd trade =2. 1 fail
longest win streak =7,
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,056
  • Aug 24, 2020 10:13am Aug 24, 2020 10:13am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Cheers Billy. Assuming if the bar was less than 15, you adjusted it to 15 for the purposes of these stats? Was a max bar size used to filter out trades that would have been too big to potentially counter? Thanks again.

For the purpose of stats, we use the actual bar range..
when i adjust my bar it actually gives better odds.
BUT you can still just trade the actual bar.

Sometimes i wont trade a big range but if i did, the counter would still stand.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,057
  • Aug 24, 2020 10:17am Aug 24, 2020 10:17am
Quoting billytt
{quote} For the purpose of stats, we use the actual bar range.. when i adjust my bar it actually gives better odds. BUT you can still just trade the actual bar. Sometimes i wont trade a big range but if i did, the counter would still stand.
Looks like overall it has been a good run, apart from some days in August where we have had a lot of whip.
  • #53,058
  • Aug 24, 2020 10:25am Aug 24, 2020 10:25am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Looks like overall it has been a good run, apart from some days in August where we have had a lot of whip.
in august we have had 3 fails and 2 wins off second break...

all manageable but i could do with out it happening, lol.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,059
  • Aug 24, 2020 10:26am Aug 24, 2020 10:26am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Looks like overall it has been a good run, apart from some days in August where we have had a lot of whip.
i have been nailing this 08-00 bar for ages,
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,060
  • Aug 24, 2020 10:29am Aug 24, 2020 10:29am
Quoting billytt
{quote} i have been nailing this 08-00 bar for ages,
great insight, thx.

have you also tried the 13-00 bar, the first 15 minutes of NYSE open?
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
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