FX investing: mid/long term ideas | Page 7 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Long Term Position Investing 0 replies

Short Term / Medium Term / Long Term? 3 replies

daily analysis, mid-and long-term outlook 92 replies

Long term, Low yielding "safe" forex investing 3 replies

Long term forex investing 17 replies

Attachments: FX investing: mid/long term ideas
Exit Attachments

FX investing: mid/long term ideas

  • #121
  • Aug 22, 2020 1:49am Aug 22, 2020 1:49am
Quoting Bacco
{quote} Thanks a lot, always very helpful, it looks like you know how to interpretate, i would like to learn how
Good morning, as the wend is here...if u plan to update the reports would be very appreciated the cross gbp/usd eur/usd

Thanks for your time
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #122
  • Aug 22, 2020 5:35am Aug 22, 2020 5:35am
GBPUSD analysis

GBP index long only

Attached Image


GBPUSD dealers + Assets managers

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpda.PNG Size: 43 KB

Charts speak for themselves. Its not the time to invest long term in longs
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #123
  • Aug 22, 2020 5:40am Aug 22, 2020 5:40am
EURUSD analysis

Attached Image
Hedge funds are going long for the past 2 weeks....just when price rose nicely and its hard to rise. Top yet?

Attached Image
Short side of the assets managers, they are just gone. Never a good sign

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.PNG Size: 36 KB
Dealers + Assets managers chart says it all. Both are going extreme, and due for retrace/correction
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #124
  • Aug 22, 2020 5:42am Aug 22, 2020 5:42am
Dollar long dealers

Something odd happened. Dollar long went totally all in, more in 4 years so far. Do they know something we don't ?

Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #125
  • Aug 22, 2020 5:42am Aug 22, 2020 5:42am
Quoting kuroro001
EURUSD analysis {image}Hedge funds are going long for the past 2 weeks....just when price rose nicely and its hard to rise. Top yet? {image}Short side of the assets managers, they are just gone. Never a good sign {image}Dealers + Assets managers chart says it all. Both are going extreme, and due for retrace/correction
Thank you very much
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #126
  • Aug 22, 2020 6:25am Aug 22, 2020 6:25am
Quoting kuroro001
Dollar long dealers Something odd happened. Dollar long went totally all in, more in 4 years so far. Do they know something we don't ? {image}
That should be the end of the GU bull run
Le$$ I$ More
  • #127
  • Aug 24, 2020 6:03am Aug 24, 2020 6:03am
Quoting kuroro001
Dollar long dealers Something odd happened. Dollar long went totally all in, more in 4 years so far. Do they know something we don't ? {image}
Hi Kuroro001,

How was your weekend? I hope everything well

In the case of your Dollar long dealers You are right. It is massive increase their positions.It may suggests bounce on price soon. Am I right in midterm/longterm?

Thank you

Sincerely
Kefasa
  • #128
  • Aug 25, 2020 1:09am Aug 25, 2020 1:09am
Quoting Kefasa
{quote} Hi Kuroro001, How was your weekend? I hope everything well In the case of your Dollar long dealers You are right. It is massive increase their positions.It may suggests bounce on price soon. Am I right in midterm/longterm? Thank you Sincerely Kefasa
Yes it does, but price can still head down so there will be more and more buying.
Its very tricky, but based on the COT and PA we should get a decent bounce coming
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #129
  • Aug 27, 2020 3:27am Aug 27, 2020 3:27am
As I see DXY (index Dollar) started to pull back from heading down slowly. But is it right moment for reversal trend or retracement in mid/long term? Today Powell speaks so it can be trigger.
  • #130
  • Sep 12, 2020 11:35am Sep 12, 2020 11:35am
GBP daily system

GBP price is still too expansive, and his above his standard deviation
It needs to cool off strongly


Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #131
  • Sep 12, 2020 12:57pm Sep 12, 2020 12:57pm
EURO weekly system

Same scenario as the GBP

Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #132
  • Sep 13, 2020 5:07am Sep 13, 2020 5:07am
CAD versus Long Assets Managers

Long side of the assets managers are getting crowded on this top here

Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #133
  • Sep 15, 2020 10:28pm Sep 15, 2020 10:28pm
Can you share your view on NZD basket? Thank you very much your approach is so structure and clean and clear. Love the excel work btw.
  • #134
  • Sep 17, 2020 7:01am Sep 17, 2020 7:01am
NZD index full analysis + NZDUSD

Here you go with the NZD currency

Attached Image
Starting off with the dealers from NZD. As you can see their net position is very light if we look at the NZD index only. They are far from being extreme...
but they went from big net long to net shorts. Something to consider if you keep buying

Attached Image
Assets managers are more interesting. They are net long. Extreme territory if we compare it to the past 4 years. Usually not a idea to buy NZD for long term here
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdls.PNG Size: 34 KB
Here are the long & short positions from all market participants to have a view on the longs only & the shorts only. Chart speak for itself, they are too loaded on the long side....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd.PNG Size: 41 KB
Here is the NZDUSD, comparing NZD positions to USD positions. It has more impact than the NZD index only. USD is having a strong part in the positionning here. Dealers are very shorts, assets managers very longs (compared the past 4 years obviously). In the past it has been reversal in the positions

Attached Image
My weekly system is telling price is topish, it still can rises, but investing in buys for long term here? no way!!!

From all the above, buying for long term here is suicide....just an opinion
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #135
  • Sep 17, 2020 7:01am Sep 17, 2020 7:01am
Quoting christ7d
Can you share your view on NZD basket? Thank you very much your approach is so structure and clean and clear. Love the excel work btw.
Thanks for the cheer up

And its done, look above
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #136
  • Sep 17, 2020 7:07am Sep 17, 2020 7:07am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Thanks for the cheer up And its done, look above
Hi, yes just read it, you confirmed my bearish sentiment ln the currency. Still amazed about your excel work, I love the charts. Thanks for sharing your work in here.
  • #137
  • Sep 19, 2020 3:28am Sep 19, 2020 3:28am
US dollar : Scary chart

The long side of the dealers went completely crazy, a real buying frenzy.
US dollar should go to the moon based on that as dumb money went short strongly

Attached Image


Time will tell if they are ready or not
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #138
  • Sep 19, 2020 4:21am Sep 19, 2020 4:21am
Quoting kuroro001
US dollar : Scary chart The long side of the dealers went completely crazy, a real buying frenzy. US dollar should go to the moon based on that as dumb money went short strongly {image} Time will tell if they are ready or not
I saw this, crazy increase in longs. I was wondering your opinion on the pound positions? Both long and short positions dropped like a rock?
  • #139
  • Sep 19, 2020 8:05am Sep 19, 2020 8:05am
Quoting kuroro001
US dollar : Scary chart The long side of the dealers went completely crazy, a real buying frenzy. US dollar should go to the moon based on that as dumb money went short strongly {image} Time will tell if they are ready or not
Well done for how u build this charts and thanks for sharing with us. This is a must thread for medium/long term plans.
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #140
  • Sep 20, 2020 9:11am Sep 20, 2020 9:11am
Quoting kuroro001
NZD index full analysis + NZDUSD Here you go with the NZD currency {image}Starting off with the dealers from NZD. As you can see their net position is very light if we look at the NZD index only. They are far from being extreme... but they went from big net long to net shorts. Something to consider if you keep buying {image}Assets managers are more interesting. They are net long. Extreme territory if we compare it to the past 4 years. Usually not a idea to buy NZD for long term here{image}Here are the long & short positions from all market participants...
Hello Kuroro,

Thanks for the very useful information. I have found out one weakness of COT reading is that when price trends even though COT may be overbought or oversold, the reversal may not come. If you look at NZDUSD from June 2006 to May 2008, and May 2009 to Feb 2010. that's a 1-2 year trend without any significant reversal. I've been thinking how do we not get caught in such a trend but unable to come up with a good solution. What are your thoughts?
0 traders viewing now