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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #7,541
  • Aug 20, 2020 8:29pm Aug 20, 2020 8:29pm
Quoting shahab8b
GU {image}
GU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD abcdr.PNG Size: 63 KB
  • #7,542
  • Aug 20, 2020 8:32pm Aug 20, 2020 8:32pm
EU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu abcd.PNG Size: 70 KB
  • #7,543
  • Aug 21, 2020 4:23am Aug 21, 2020 4:23am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GU {image}
GU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 8212020.png Size: 29 KB
  • #7,544
  • Aug 21, 2020 4:27am Aug 21, 2020 4:27am
Quoting shahab8b
EU {image}
EU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1 8212020.png Size: 30 KB
  • #7,545
  • Aug 21, 2020 5:37am Aug 21, 2020 5:37am
Quoting shahab8b
AUDUSD, short setup {image}
AUDUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1 821.png Size: 31 KB
  • #7,546
  • Aug 21, 2020 6:31am Aug 21, 2020 6:31am
Quoting shahab8b
GU {image}
GU, I'll be interested to go long if it gets close to 1.30, for now going with this wave count
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 82120201.png Size: 40 KB
  • #7,547
  • Aug 21, 2020 9:18am Aug 21, 2020 9:18am
Thanks for your help, I recognised that pa but didn't know its name ,great job gold mine thread
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GU {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #7,548
  • Edited 10:18am Aug 21, 2020 10:05am | Edited 10:18am
Quoting Bones
Thanks for your help, I recognised that pa but didn't know its name ,great job gold mine thread {quote}
Thank you Bones. I'm happy you find it helpful. also special thanks to Coreg for identifying the bearish bat pattern around the same level. it gave more confidence to a short trade at that level.
  • #7,549
  • Aug 23, 2020 1:56am Aug 23, 2020 1:56am
GU is still in the accumulating and consolidating phase. In that view, an intraday analysis will be the best way to handle it for now.

Here is my sell view, (i don't really use trendlines)
The market retested the Year's Open price twice.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Le$$ I$ More
  • #7,550
  • Aug 23, 2020 2:07am Aug 23, 2020 2:07am
The DXY is also printing a new Bullish SW zone which means more buys for the Dollar.
Things can really change fast in the market. So anything can happen.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot at Aug 23 07-04-31.png Size: 46 KB
Le$$ I$ More
  • #7,551
  • Aug 24, 2020 10:17am Aug 24, 2020 10:17am
ABC correction implies new low, do we get it?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU08.24.15M.png Size: 70 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,552
  • Edited 6:43pm Aug 24, 2020 6:20pm | Edited 6:43pm
EURUSD, it looks like a broadening formation in progress. For some reason, it reminds me of another broadening formation on AUDUSD that I traded back in Oct 2009. It can breakout either way. According to Bulkowski, 54% of the time it has an upward breakout. Regarding EU, there is structural support @ 1.17. I like the idea of trying a long trade close to 1.17 with stop below the S zone. If it goes higher from here, I like the idea of shorting close to 1.1950 with stop above the high. A clear beak of structural support @ 1.17 will indicate that a mid-term top is in place.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 8242020.PNG Size: 74 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AU 824 broadening formation.PNG Size: 66 KB
  • #7,553
  • Aug 24, 2020 6:32pm Aug 24, 2020 6:32pm
GBPUSD, it looks like a wide range consolidation pattern. I have a bullish bias as long as structural support zone @ 1.2980-1.30 hold, alternatively rallies to +1.32-1.3250 region can be sold with stop above the high. A clear break below 1.30 S zone, will change the bias to bearish
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 8242020.PNG Size: 83 KB
  • #7,554
  • Aug 24, 2020 6:58pm Aug 24, 2020 6:58pm
A few notes on GBPUSD positioning.

Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC: GBP long 7K vs 3k short last week. Positioned reversed to long. GBP position turned long after being short by 36K at the beginning of June 2020.

My observation is that GBPUSD speculative positioning may act as a contrarian indicator, that is in contrast to EURUSD positioning data. Let's see what happens this time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,555
  • Aug 24, 2020 7:20pm Aug 24, 2020 7:20pm
I don't think the first tl can hold after break ,so its about this pivot we're in.
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #7,556
  • Aug 24, 2020 7:32pm Aug 24, 2020 7:32pm
Quoting Bones
I don't think the first tl can hold after break ,so its about this pivot we're in. {image}
I agree that it may not hold. I'd like to see a clear beak of that S zone though. Buyers will likely to show if it gets close to 1.30
  • #7,557
  • Aug 25, 2020 5:54am Aug 25, 2020 5:54am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, it looks like a wide range consolidation pattern. I have a bullish bias as long as structural support zone @ 1.2980-1.30 hold, alternatively rallies to +1.32-1.3250 region can be sold with stop above the high. A clear break below 1.30 S zone, will change the bias to bearish {image}
GBPUSD
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  • #7,558
  • Aug 25, 2020 6:05am Aug 25, 2020 6:05am
USDJPY, possible short setup
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  • #7,559
  • Aug 25, 2020 8:20am Aug 25, 2020 8:20am
EURUSD, possible short setup for today
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 825 2020.PNG Size: 61 KB
  • #7,560
  • Aug 25, 2020 8:21am Aug 25, 2020 8:21am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD {image}
shahab8b, you know the drill...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU08.25.30M.png Size: 77 KB
soon we might relabel the markings on daily chart...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
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